By Andy Lack

Greetings, and welcome to a weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the Scramble with Rick, every Tuesdays and Fridays on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed. I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!

The Basics 

• Course: Sedgefield Country Club
• Location: Greensboro, North Carolina
• Designer: Donald Ross (1926) with a Kris Spence renovation (2007)
• Length: Par 70; 7,131 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on six holes
• Fairways: Bermuda-grass, averaging 29 yards wide on average
• Rough: Bermuda-grass (2.5 inches)
• Greens: 6,000 square foot Champion Bermuda-grass running 12 on the stimp

 

The Wyndham Championship has been a staple of the PGA Tour since 1938 when it was founded as the Greater Greensboro Open. It had always been played in April or May, until a schedule change in 2003 moved it towards the end of the season. It has been hosted at a number of courses over the years before a permanent move to the Donald Ross designed Sedgefield Country Club in 2008. This is the final PGA Tour event before the playoffs, so this will present the final opportunity for players to find their way into the top-125 in the FedEx Cup standings, and continue their season next week in Memphis.

For the second consecutive week, we will also be traveling to a Donald Ross golf course, although Sedgefield varies from Detroit Golf Club in more ways than one. Sedgefield features all of the staples of Carolina golf: tall overhanging trees, pine straw, and slick Bermuda greens, which should provide a worthy challenge this week under dry conditions. Last year, the course played far more challenging than it usually does due to firmer conditions. Still, it ranked as the 11th easiest course on the PGA Tour, which is actually harder than it usually plays. Each of the prior five years, it has ranked inside the top 10 in lowest overall scoring average.

Sedgefield is by no means a long course, playing as a par 70 and tipping out to just over 7,100 yards on the scorecard. Two of the par threes play over 220 yards, and rank as the fifth and sixth hardest holes on the course, but overall, it still features the fourth easiest set of par threes on the PGA Tour. Both of the par fives are extremely score-able as well, featuring over a 50% birdie rate and ranking as the two easiest holes on the course by a healthy margin. The duo played as the second easiest set of par fives on the PGA Tour last year. The fifth hole is truly more like a long par four, playing to a stroke average of 4.36 and featuring a 56.1% birdie rate and a 6.3% eagle rate. Sedgefield also has an overwhelming amount of short to medium length par fours, which explains why such a large plurality of approach shots come from between 100 and 175 yards. A whopping eight par fours measure between 400 and 450 yards, although I would resist the temptation to look at par four scoring (400-450 yards), as I do not believe that is in any way a predictive metric. With an absence of long par fours, short to middle iron play will be absolutely essential. Players will have a long iron approach shot at maximum five times at Sedgefield, which also explains the exorbitant greens in regulation percentage.

Webb Simpson, who might be the most qualified person on planet earth to discuss Sedgefield, described the nature of the course well, “It goes back to the point of the golf course. Bay Hill, Tiger won so many times. Akron produces long hitters winning there. Depending on the golf course you kind of create your own pool of winners that are usually going to win there, whereas this course, like I said, it favors nobody. Most everybody in the field has a legitimate chance to win whereas you know, maybe you go to San Diego, I can’t remember the last time somebody who didn’t bomb it winning these. That’s a place where you take out 50% of the field from the start of the week.” Webb is absolutely correct. Sedgefield is a golf course that fits all shapes and sizes, as evidenced by recent winners such as Kevin Kisner, Jim Herman, J.T. Poston, Brandt Snedeker, Henrik Stenson, Si Woo Kim, Patrick Reed, and a very much past his prime Davis Love III. This tournament is nearly always won by the player who displays the best combination of short iron play and putting. Let’s dive into the stats.

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • 18.2% of strokes gained at Sedgefield have come off the tee, which is healthily above the Tour average of 15.2%.
  • Last year, Sedgefield ranked 37th out of 40 courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty. Historically, it has ranked as one of the easier off the tee courses on the PGA Tour. 
  • Driving accuracy here has been typically right around Tour average (62%). Driving distance however has been a touch lower than Tour average. Sedgefield features the eighth most narrow fairways on the PGA Tour, but it is not a golf course where driver is really required. There is very little benefit from bombing away with driver here, as the unpredictable Bermuda rough has been known to present problems. Henrik Stenson won here without even carrying a driver.
  • Last year, Sedgefield ranked eighth out of 40 courses in missed fairway penalty. The prior year, it ranked first out of 40 courses in missed fairway penalty. It has proven to be absolutely crucial to be play from the fairway at Sedgefield. Yes, it is a short course, but it is far more challenging to control spin coming out of Bermuda rough than it is Blue-grass rough, which eliminates any value in a bomb and gauge strategy. This also explains why we have seen a large plurality of shorter hitters and fairway finders experience so much success here.
  • Sedgefield ranked 12th out of 40 courses last year in rough penalty, and in 2020, it ranked second out of 40 courses in rough penalty. Last year, it also ranked second out of 40 courses in non-rough penalty, and each of the last seven years, it has ranked inside the top-five in greatest non-rough penalty. This further explains the penalty for wayward driving at Sedgefield. Yes, being in the rough Sedgefield is a problem, but being in the trees and pine straw is an unmitigated disaster. As someone who played Carolina courses in college, I can adamantly vouch for this. Players must stay out of the pine straw at all costs. Interestingly enough, there’s not a ton of water hazards in play at Sedgefield, as it ranks right around Tour average in fraction of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke, and penalty strokes per round. However, being in the trees at Sedgefield almost acts as a hazard in its own right.
  • For all of the reasons mentioned above, I want to identify players that raise their baseline off the tee on club-down courses. The best long-term players off the tee on less than driver courses have been Cameron Champ, Sungjae Im, Corey Conners, Keith Mitchell, Paul Barjon, Tyler Duncan, Si Woo Kim, Joel Dahmen, Kramer Hickok, and Russell Henley. 
  • Unsurprisingly, I was also able to find a positive correlation in driving accuracy and success at Sedgefield. While it’s still possible to contend here without hitting a ton of fairways (Branden Grace, Adam Scott, and Si Woo Kim all lost to the field in fairways gained), it must be made up for with elite wedge play and putting. Over a larger sample size, players that hit the most fairways possess a huge edge at Sedgefield. In 2019, Webb Simpson and J.T. Poston ranked first and second in fairways gained and finished first and second on the leaderboard. In 2020, Jim Herman ranked fourth in fairways gained. Third place finisher Doc Redman ranked third, and second place finisher Billy Horschel ranked fifth. Only Sam Burns was able to crack the top-15 that year with below average driving accuracy. Eight of the last 10 winners ranked inside the top-15 in driving accuracy percentage. The most accurate long-term drivers in this field are Chez Reavie, Ryan Armour, Brendon Todd, Brian Stuard, Martin Laird, Jim Herman, Satoshi Kodaira, Brian Harman, Kevin Streelman, and Adam Long. 

 

• Approach
  • 31.2% of strokes gained at Sedgefield have come on approach, which is healthily below the Tour average of 34.7%.
  • Greens in regulation percentage (72%) here has been comfortably above Tour average (65.9%). Sedgefield featured the fourth easiest greens to hit on the PGA Tour last year, and each of the last seven years, it ranked inside the top-five in easiest greens to hit on the PGA Tour.
  • Each of the last seven years, Sedgefield has ranked as the easiest course on Tour in terms of strokes gained approach difficulty. It ranked 39th out of 40 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty under 150 yards, and 40th out of 40 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty from over 150 yards. Does this mean that iron play is non-essential? Not entirely, as the sheer volume of mid to short irons on this course is overwhelming. Sedgefield is nothing like St. Andrew’s in being a drive and putt course, but the degree of difficulty on the approach shots here is extremely low. The volume of short iron approaches leads me to value wedge play greatly, but I do not believe that one needs to be an elite iron player to win this tournament, especially if they can putt. 
  • Still, in 2020, every single player in the top-15 gained over a stroke on approach, and the winner generally does tend to have a very strong iron week. Kisner was good but not great on approach, yet the prior five champions all ranked top-five in strokes gained approach.
  • 13.0% of approach shots at Sedgefield have come from 100-125 yards, which is above Tour average. 18.8% of approach shots have come from 125-150 yards, which is also above average. 22.7% of approach shots have come from 150-175 yards, which is very comfortably above Tour average, and 17.4% of approach shots have come from 175-200 yards, which is right around Tour average. All other proximity buckets are below Tour average. We can comfortably say that Sedgefield is a mid to short iron course, with specifically the range of 125-175 yards really jumping out to me. The best long-term short to middle iron players in this field have been Russell Henley, Lee Hodges, Sam Ryder, Justin Lower, Jason Dufner, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Justin Rose, Russell Knox, Henrik Norlander, and Lucas Glover. 

 

• Around the Green 
  • 12.4% of strokes gained at Sedgefield have come around the green, which is below the Tour average of 14.5%.
  • Last year, Sedgefield ranked seventh out 40 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty. Every single year, it ranks as one of the hardest courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty. 
  • Last year, Sedgefield ranked ninth out of 40 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty from the fairway. It ranked fourth out 40 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty from the rough, and 19th out of 40 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty out of the bunkers.
  • Like all courses that feature a high greens in regulation percentage, players that are forced to rely on their short game at Sedgefield often are likely not in contention to win the tournament. In 2020, the top-three on the leaderboard were slight losers around the green, and that year, six of the top-10 on the leaderboard lost strokes around the green.
  • With that being said, the rough around the greens here is extremely tricky. In 2020, Sedgefield featured the lowest up and down percentage from the rough out of any PGA Tour course. There will certainly be a few times in the round where players will need to display some short game expertise out of tricky Bermuda rough. The technique of chipping out of Bermuda rough is far different from many of the Bent-grass courses we have grown accustomed to this summer, as it is far more challenging to control spin out of Bermuda. For this reason, I wanted to identify to players who improve their baseline around the green on Bermuda courses. The best long-term around the green players in this field have been Danny Willett, Seung-Yul Noh, Stephan Jaeger, Sungjae Im, Jason Day, Russell Henley, Mark Hubbard, Rory Sabbatini, Scott Piercy, and Mackenzie Hughes. 

 

• Putting 
  • 38.3% of strokes gained at Sedgefield have come putting, which is healthily above the Tour average of 35.6%.
  • Last year, Sedgefield ranked eighth out of 40 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty. Every singly year, it has ranked as one of the more challenging putting courses on the entire PGA Tour. 
  • It ranked 26th out of 40 courses in putting inside five feet, but seventh out of 40 courses in putting from five to 15 feet, and sixth out of 40 courses in putting from over 15 feet.
  • Sedgefield has proven to be one of the more challenging lag putting courses on the PGA Tour. Donald Ross greens always feature a certain level of nuance, and it should not come as a surprise that there have far more three putts per round at Sedgefield (0.67) than the average Tour course (0.56). The best players in this field in three-putt avoidance have been Tyrrell Hatton, Vincent Whaley, Kelly Kraft, Zach Johnson, Mark Hubbard, Kevin Streelman, Anirban Lahiri, Greyson Sigg, Denny McCarthy, and Brian Gay. 
  • In 2019, the entire top-22 on the leaderboard gained strokes putting. In 2020, under easier scoring conditions, the entire top-25 on the leaderboard gained strokes putting. Sedgefield walks the line of a putting contest in the sense that there is an extremely high greens in regulation percentage, and weaker tee to green players can certainly compete here. Still, I don’t think that this tournament is as much of a predictive crapshoot as what we saw last week at the Rocket Mortgage. I do think that comparative course history, course history, and accuracy off the tee are extremely important metrics this week, but it is undeniable that a hot putter is required.
  • It’s very seldom that we see members of team no putt have success here. Sergio Garcia and Hideki Matsuyama come to mind as exceptions, but still, elite long-term putters such as Billy Horschel, Kevin Kisner, Webb Simpson, Patrick Reed, J.T. Poston, Denny McCarthy, Kevin Na, Brendon Todd, and Zach Johnson seem to always populate the leaderboard. Sedgefield features particularly fast Bermuda-grass greens, a far cry from what we saw last week at Detroit Golf Club. The best long-term players in this field on Bermuda greens are Chesson Hadley, Brian Gay, Brendon Todd, Denny McCarthy, Kevin Kisner, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Adam Long, Vincent Whaley, Billy Horschel, and Aaron Baddeley. 

 

• Scoring Stats
  • This will be more specifically covered in my comp course section, but Sedgefield is one of the shortest courses on Tour, and all types of players can compete here. There are certain players that consistently raise their baseline on these shorter golf courses. The best long-term players in this field on courses under 7,200 yards have been Webb Simpson, Russell Henley, Billy Horschel, Adam Scott, Corey Conners, Sungjae Im, Si Woo Kim, Justin Rose, Shane Lowry, and Jason Day. 
  • Sedgefield certainly features easy enough scoring conditions that I still want to identify players who can make birdies in bunches. Despite somewhat more challenging scoring last year, this is still a course that players should feel comfortable getting to 20 under par on. The players in this field that consistently make the most birdies have been Will Zalatoris, Davis Riley, Russell Henley, Tyrrell Hatton, Harold Varner III, Keith Mitchell, Scott Brown, Adam Scott, Justin Rose, and Scott Stallings. 
  • On any course that features easy scoring conditions and a great deal of short iron approaches, I want to identify the players that generate the most birdie looks per round. The players who give themselves the most birdie looks inside 15 feet per round have been Will Zalatoris, Russell Henley, Harold Varner III, Austin Smotherman, Aaron Wise, John Huh, Satoshi Kodaira, Chad Ramey, Chris Gotterup, and Aaron Rai. 
  • We talk a lot about the agronomical differences in regards to greens, but not as much about the fairways and rough. I already alluded to how I do believe there is a difference in technique in chipping out of Bermuda rough versus Blue-grass rough, and I feel the same way about iron shots from Bermuda fairways and rough as well. Not just aesthetically, Bermuda courses are also quite simply different than northeastern golf courses, California golf courses, and even Texas golf courses. The best long-term players on Bermuda golf courses have been Will Zalatoris, Tyrrell Hatton, Shane Lowry, Russell Henley, Webb Simpson, Billy Horschel, Corey Conners, Sungjae Im, Aaron Wise, and Harold Varner III. 

 

• Comp Courses/Course History 
  • Sedgefield certainly does feature some of the more predictive course history on the PGA Tour. It’s not as predictive as Waialae, Harbour Town, Augusta, or some of the other Tour staples, but there is certainly nuance to the green complexes, and the same types of players seem to perform here year after year. The best players at Sedgefield have been Webb Simpson, Kevin Kisner, Billy Horschel, Jim Herman, Si Woo Kim, Sungjae Im, Denny McCarthy, Rory Sabbatini, Russell Henley, and Ryan Moore. 
  • In terms of comp courses, TPC Sawgrass immediately comes to mind as another shorter Bermuda course where finding the fairway is imperative. It should not come as surprise that players such as Webb Simpson, Si Woo Kim, Kevin Kisner, Sergio Garcia, and many others, have experienced success at both courses. The best players in this field at TPC Sawgrass have been Adam Scott, Si Woo Kim, Davis Love III, Jason Day, Justin Rose, Corey Conners, Doug Ghim, Bo Van Pelt, Webb Simpson, and Joel Dahmen. 
  • East Lake is another obvious one to look at given the Donald Ross connection and the very similar agronomy. East Lake is certainly more challenging, but there’s still an emphasis on accuracy off the tee and mastering the tricky Donald Ross green complexes. Ryan Moore, Henrik Stenson, Russell Henley, Sergio Garcia, Justin Rose, and many others have experienced success at both courses. The best players in this field at East Lake have been Ryan Moore, Justin Rose, Billy Horschel, Russell Henley, Danny Lee, Tyrrell Hatton, Chez Reavie, Jason Day, Luke Donald, and Adam Scott. 
  • Sea Island also checks the box of a Bermuda course that places an emphasis on accuracy off the tee, wedge play, and features similar scoring conditions. Webb Simpson, Kevin Kisner, C.T. Pan, Zach Johnson, Russell Henley, Billy Horschel have populated the top of the leaderboard at both courses. The best players in this field at Sea Island have been Kevin Kisner, Webb Simpson, John Huh, Corey Conners, Matthew NeSmith, Zach Johnson, Russell Henley, Brian Gay, Robert Streb, and Lucas Glover. 
  • Harbour Town is a little tighter and more tree-lined, but still features a similar style of positional golf. It should not come as a surprise that once again, Webb Simpson, J.T. Poston, Jordan Spieth, Branden Grace, and many others have consistently popped up at both courses. The best players in this field at Harbour Town have been Webb Simpson, J.T. Poston, Shane Lowry, Jason Day, Rory Sabbatini, Tyrrell Hatton, William McGirt, Joel Dahmen, Russell Knox, and C.T. Pan. 
  • Innisbrook also checks the box of a Carolina style Bermuda course. Innisbrook is a little more challenging and features more long iron approach shots, but aesthetically, it probably has the most in common with Sedgefield. Jordan Spieth, Sergio Garcia, Justin Rose, Kevin Na, Bill Haas, and many others have experienced loads of success at both courses. The best players in this field at Innisbook have been Justin Rose, Bill Haas, Matthew NeSmith, Robert Garrigus, Davis Riley, Sungjae Im, Jason Dufner, Jonathan Byrd, Bo Van Pelt, and Rory Sabbatini. 
  • Finally, Waialae checks many of these boxes as well, particularly with the agronomy and emphasis on mid to short iron play. Unsurprisingly, a long list of players including Tim Clark, Webb Simpson, Justin Rose, Kevin Kisner, Hideki Matsuyama, and Kevin Na have been excellent at both Waialae and Sedgefield. The best players in this field at Waialae have been Justin Rose, Corey Conners, Webb Simpson, Kevin Kisner, Patton Kizzire, Keith Mitchell, Chez Reavie, Zach Johnson, Russell Knox, and Stewart Cink. 

 

Model Inputs 

• Off the Tee (13%)
  • Strokes Gained Off the Tee on Courses Under 7,200 yards (5%)
  • Fairways Gained (8%)
• Approach (23%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (10%)
  • Long-term Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)
  • Long-term Proximity 150-175 yards (8%)
• Around the Green (5%)
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green: Bermuda Courses (5%)
• Putting (17%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Bermuda Courses (12%)
  • Three Putt Avoidance (5%)
• Scoring Stats (24%)
  • Birdies or Better Gained (7%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Courses Under than 7,200 yards (6%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Bermuda Courses (6%)
  • Opportunities Gained (5%)
• Comp Courses/Course History (18%)
  • Sedgefield (6%)
  • TPC Sawgrass (2%)
  • East Lake (2%)
  • Sea Island (2%)
  • Harbour Town (2%)
  • Innisbrook (2%)
  • Waialae (2%)

 

Top 20

1. Russell Henley
2. Webb Simpson
3. Shane Lowry
4. Billy Horschel
5. Brian Harman
6. Justin Rose
7. Corey Conners
8. Kevin Streelman
9. Adam Scott
10. Harold Varner III
11. Sungjae Im
12. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
13. Ryan Armour
14. Aaron Wise
15. Will Zalatoris
16. C.T. Pan
17. Mark Hubbard
18. Denny McCarthy
19. Tyrrell Hatton
20. Adam Svensson

Most over-valued based on expected price: Will Zalatoris (15th), Tyrrell Hatton (19th), Kevin Kisner (22nd), Si Woo Kim (25th), Chris Gotterup (41st), Jason Day (42nd), Davis Riley (45th), Taylor Pendrith (67th), Tom Kim (68th)

Most under-valued based on expected price: Brian Harman (5th), Kevin Streelman (8th), Ryan Armour (13th), C.T. Pan (16th), Joel Dahmen (21st), J.J. Spaun (23rd), Vaughn Taylor (31st), and Russell Knox (32nd)