By Andy Lack

Greetings, and welcome to a weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the betting preview with Rick on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed. I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!

The Basics 

• Course: Silverado Country Club (North Course)
• Location: Napa, California
• Designer: Robert Trent Jones Jr. (1966), with a Johnny Miller re-design (2011)
• Length: Par 72; 7,165 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on two holes
• Fairways: Bermuda-grass with Poa Annua and Rye, measuring 27 yards on average
• Rough: Kentucky Blue-grass, 3 inches
• Greens: Bent-grass with Poa Annua measuring 6,200 square feet, 11.5 on the stimp

 

The Fortinet Championship, previously the Safeway Open and Frys.com Open, is the first event of the PGA Tour’s fall swing and the 2022-2023 FedEx Cup season. This tournament has been hosted at a number of courses over the years, but has been played at Silverado Country Club since 2015.

The Robert Trent Jones Jr. design is a fairly standard, tree-lined resort course that reguarly plays as one of the easier courses on Tour. Last year, it ranked 26th out of 38 courses in scoring average, and the prior year, it ranked 36th out of 40 courses in scoring average. Historically, it has never ranked harder than Tour average in scoring average.

The reason for this is simple. Measuring just under 7,200 yards on the scorecard, it’s one of the shortest par 72s on the PGA Tour schedule, and it does not come tricked up with hazards like a TPC Sawgrass or PGA National. It’s hard to even make a definitive judgement on what the course’s biggest defense is. There’s certainly some undulation to the green complexes and a number of challenging par threes, but in totality, the large plurality of short par fours and reachable par fives will continue to keep the scoring average down. Nine of the ten par fours at Silverado measure between 360 and 450 yards, which explains why this course can best be defined as a wedge and putting contest. Only three of the ten par fours play to a historic scoring average over par. The par fives are even more of a cakewalk. All feature over a 35% birdie rate, and rank as the four easiest holes on the course by a healthy margin. Silverado does show some teeth with its par threes, which historically rank as the first, third, fourth, and ninth toughest holes on the course, and all play to scoring average of par or higher. The quartet played as the 12th hardest set of par threes on the PGA Tour last season. Ultimately, the formula at Silverado is quite simple: manage the par threes, and generate as many birdie opportunities as possible on the score-able par fours and fives with elite wedge play. Let’s dive into the stats.

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • Last year, 17.8% of strokes gained came off the tee, and historically, that number falls to 15.4%, which is slightly above Tour average.
  • Silverado also ranked 18th out of 38 courses last year in strokes gained off the tee difficulty. Historically, it has ranked right around Tour average in off the tee difficulty, despite featuring some of the tightest fairways on the PGA Tour. Silverado had the third lowest driving accuracy percentage on the PGA Tour last year, and each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top-six in lowest driving accuracy percentage. It’s historic driving accuracy percentage comes in at a comically low 52%, well below the Tour average of 62%. Yet still, driving distance remains above average. Despite extremely narrow, tree-lined fairways, players are not deterred from pulling driver on this course. Now, why is that?
  • The reason is simple! The three inch Kentucky Bluegrass rough isn’t much of a penalty. Last year, Silverado ranked 29th out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalty, and each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top-10 in average difference of score from drives in the fairway versus dries in the rough.
  • Silverado is tree-lined, but not intrusively. There is very little penalty for wayward driving on this course due to the lack of hazards in play off the tee. Last year, Silverado ranked 34th out of 38 courses in fraction of missed fairways that resulted in a penalty stroke.
  • We’ve established that there is little benefit in possessing elite accuracy off the tee at Silverado. The question then becomes, can this course be bomb and gauged? Whether distance truly matters here is a bit hard to discern. Cameron Champ won here in 2020 leading the field in driving distance by a healthy margin, but Zac Blair finished just a few strokes back ranking nearly dead last in driving distance. Looking farther down the leaderboard, 10 of the top-16 players gained on the field in driving distance. In 2021, Stewart Cink didn’t feature quite the same pop as Champ, but he still ranked 11th in the field that week in driving distance. However, nine of the top-13 players on the leaderboard lost in driving distance to the field. Last year told a similar story, with a fairly even distribution of shorter and longer hitters populating the top of the leaderboard.
  • Ultimately, distance helps on any golf course, especially those that feature little penalty for missing the fairway. Still, there are no real drivable par fours at Silverado, and all of the par fives are reachable for nearly every player in the field. I have a difficult time going out of my way to value distance on this golf course, or knocking any player for having a lack of pop off the tee. In fact, there has actually been a much greater correlation with good drive percentage at Silverado than with driving distance. Last year, nine of the top-10 players on the leaderboard gained to the field in good drive percentage. In 2021, 21 of top-22 on the leaderboard gained to the field in good drive percentage, with Stewart Cink (winner) and Brian Stuard (third place) ranking first and second. The reason for this is fairly uncomplicated. This tournament is won with elite wedge play and putting. Elite off the tee play is more of a luxury than a necessity. The objective is actually quite simple off the tee: place yourself in a position where you have a comfortable wedge distance in. For some, that might mean driver on every hole. For others, that might mean rarely ever hitting driver. We’ve seen both strategies work. Cameron Champ played extremely aggressively off the tee, cutting the corner on doglegs nearly every opportunity that he got. Yet Adam Hadwin finished just a stroke back, dinking and dunking off the tee to playable spots, and coupling that with elite wedge play. I simply want to identify players that can put themselves in position off the tee to attack this golf course. They don’t need to be the most accurate in the world, but with such a strong correlation between good drive percentage and success, they need to at least have some form of strategy off the tee that can set them up to be aggressive with their second shot. 
  • The best players in this field in good drive percentage over the past year have been Martin Laird, Corey Conners, Brendan Steele, Ryan Armour, J.J. Spaun, Adam Long, Kevin Streelman, Lucas Glover, David Lipsky, and Kyle Stanley. 

 

• Approach
  • Last year, 36.2% of strokes gained at Silverado came on approach, which is healthily above the Tour average of 34.7%, but historically, that number falls to 32.2%.
  • Silverado also ranked 14th out of 38 courses last year in strokes gained approach difficulty. Historically, it has ranked right around Tour average in approach difficulty.
  • Historic greens in regulation percentage here is 67.9%, comfortably above the Tour average of 65.6%. Last year, it ranked slightly easier than Tour average in greens in regulation percentage, and each of the last five years, it has featured some of the easiest greens to hit on the PGA Tour. 
  • For all intents and purposes, Silverado is a wedge course. It ranks below Tour average in all proximity buckets above 150 yards, but above Tour average in all proximity buckets below 150 yards. 18% of approach shots have come from 100-125 yards, and 19% of approach shots have come from 125-150 yards. If looking at proximity buckets, I would recommend the 100-150 yard range over a large sample size. The best long-term players from 100-150 yards in this field are Max McGreevy, Ben Martin, Camilo Villegas, Chez Reavie, Cameron Davis, Tom Hoge, Mark Hubbard, Hideki Matsuyama, Adam Svensson, and Brian Stuard. 
  • Wedge play is absolutely crucial on this golf course, as Silverado does not do the best job of separating average to elite drivers of the ball. Most players will generally be approaching these greens from similar locations.

 

• Around the Green
  • Last year, 13.6% of strokes gained at Silverado came around the green. Historically, that number increases to 14.4%, which is right around Tour average.
  • Silverado also ranked 13th out of 38 courses last year in strokes gained around the green difficulty. Historically, it has always ranked harder than Tour average in around the green difficulty. 
  • Last year, Silverado ranked eighth out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the fairway, 16th out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the rough, and 17th out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the bunkers. Nothing really to write home about here. Missing on the wrong side of the hole can leave challenging up and downs, but this is still an easy golf course with a higher than average greens in regulation percentage. Players that are relying on their short game often are not likely to be in contention to win the tournament. The degree of difficulty of around the green shots at Silverado is fair, but it’s hard to make a real case that this is a tournament where we need to be identifying players with an elite short game. 

 

• Putting 
  • Last year, 32.4% of strokes gained at Silverado came putting, which is well below the Tour average of 35.6%. That was an anomaly however, as historically, that number jumps all the way up to 38%, which is comfortably above Tour average.
  • Silverado also ranked 22nd out of 38 courses last year in strokes gained putting difficulty. Historically, it has ranked right around Tour average in putting difficulty. There is definitely some undulation to these greens, and enough Poa sprinkled in to create some uncertainty.
  • Still, most Poa courses create challenges for pros on short putts, but last year, Silverado ranked 34th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty inside five feet. There have also been years where it has ranked inside the top-10 in putting difficulty inside five feet.
  • It ranked 20th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and 19th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from 15 feet plus.
  • Ultimately, Silverado is not a course that will create extreme separation from tee to green. Part of the formula every single year is elite putting. In 2021, 21 out of the top-22 players on the leaderboard gained strokes putting. Last year, 20 out of the top-22 players on the leaderboard gained strokes putting. There is some resistance here from tee to green, but gaining at least two strokes putting is still essential to claiming victory. 
  • The best long-term putters in this field on Bent/Poa are Beau Hossler, Harris English, Mackenzie Hughes, Alex Noren, Denny McCarthy, Brendon Todd, Austin Cook, Maverick McNealy, Vincent Whaley, and Patrick Rodgers.

 

• Scoring Stats 
  • On any golf course where the winning score creeps into the 20-under territory, I will primarily be looking to identify players that raise their baseline in easier scoring conditions. The best long-term players on easy courses are Corey Conners, Alex Noren, Taylor Moore, Harris English, Maverick McNealy, Mark Hubbard, Hideki Matsuyama, Troy Merritt, Michael Thompson, and Chris Stroud. 
  • More specifically, on courses with such a large plurality of wedge shots, it’s imperative to find players that can generate the most birdie opportunities inside 15 feet, and convert them at a high rate. The players in this field that generate the most birdie looks inside 15 feet per round are John Huh, Hideki Matsuyama, Luke List, Tom Hoge, Corey Conners, Chris Gotterup, Cameron Davis, Davis Riley, Brendan Steele, and Austin Smotherman. 
  • The best players in this field in birdies or better gained are Hideki Matsuyama, Adam Svensson, Davis Riley, Max Homa, Maverick McNealy, Taylor Pendrith, Cameron Davis, Danny Lee, Stephan Jaeger, and Thomas Detry. 
  • On a par 72 with four reachable par fives, I will always also be looking at par five efficiency. I was able to find a strong correlation between par five scoring and success at Silverado. The top-three players on last year’s leaderboard (Homa, McNealy, Pereira) all finished top-four in par five scoring. The best players in this field in par five efficiency are Matthew NeSmith, Cameron Champ, Cameron Davis, Cameron Percy, Matthias Schwab, Max Homa, Brandon Wu, Sahith Theegala, Thomas Detry, and Patrick Rodgers. 

 

• Comp Courses/Course History 
  • In terms of course history, Silverado is on the lower end of Tour courses in its predictive nature. There is little nuance or strategic value to this course, and history has shown us that players have little issue performing here either on their first appearance, or with poor course history. Prior to his victory last year, Max Homa had finished 60th and 62nd in two appearances at Silverado. Mito Pereira and John Augenstein both finished top-six here last year on debut. The prior year, Cink won with a missed cut four years ago as his only experience at Silverado.
  • There are certainly some course history mavens such as Brendan Steele and Chez Reavie, that seem to perform here every year, but I see little value in knocking anyone for a below average track record here. Still, the best players in this field at Silverado have been Chez Reavie, Hideki Matsuyama, Brendan Steele, Ryan Moore, Emiliano Grillo, Stewart Cink, Harry Higgs, Brandt Snedeker, Bill Haas, and Cameron Percy. 
  • In terms of comparative courses, I don’t mind the idea of looking at other non-Bermuda birdie fests such as Detroit Golf Club and TPC Deere Run as reference points. Ideally, we want to identify courses that feature little penalty for wayward driving and a large plurality of wedge shots. Pebble Beach would also fall into this category, but it’s still more positional in its nature. TPC Craig Ranch, Caves Valley, and Summit Club are other Bent-grass birdie fests, but those courses feature a much greater plurality of long iron approach shots. TPC Deere Run and Detroit Golf Club are certainly the most apt comparisons.
  • The best players in this field at TPC Deere Run have been Adam Schenk, Ryan Moore, Maverick McNealy, Dylan Frittelli, Chris Stroud, Patton Kizzire, Lucas Glover, Emiliano Grillo, Patrick Rodgers, and Chris Gotterup. 
  • The best players in this field at Detroit Golf Club have been Wyndham Clark, Troy Merritt, Taylor Pendrith, Chris Kirk, J.J. Spaun, Matt Wallace, Nate Lashley, Taylor Moore, Hideki Matsuyama, and Cameron Davis. 

 

Model Inputs 

• Off the Tee (10%)
  • Strokes Gained Off the Tee (5%)
  • Good Drive Percentage (5%)
• Approach (30%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (18%)
  • Long-term Proximity 100-125 yards (6%)
  • Long-term Proximity 125-150 yards (6%)
• Around the Green (5%)
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green (5%)
• Putting (18%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting Bent/Poa (18%)
• Scoring Stats (26%)
  • Opportunities Gained (7%)
  • Birdies or Better (7%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring Conditions (7%)
  • Par 5 Scoring (5%)
• Comp Courses/Course History (11%)
  • Silverado (5%)
  • TPC Deere Run (3%)
  • Detroit Golf Club (3%)

 

Top 20 

1. Cameron Davis
2. Taylor Pendrith
3. Mark Hubbard
4. Corey Conners
5. Adam Svensson
6. Chris Kirk
7. Max Homa
8. David Lipsky
9. Hideki Matsuyama
10. Tom Hoge
11. Troy Merritt
12. Davis Riley
13. Chez Reavie
14. Patrick Rodgers
15. Adam Schenk
16. Chris Gotterup
17. Alex Noren
18. Webb Simpson
19. J.J. Spaun
20. Emiliano Grillo

Most over-valued based on expected price: Hideki Matsuyama (9th), Maverick McNealy (25th), Gary Woodland (28th), Sahith Theegala (29th), Brendan Steele (50th), Denny McCarthy (53rd)

Most under-valued based on expected price: Taylor Pendrith (2nd), Mark Hubbard (3rd), Adam Svensson (5th), David Lipsky (8th), Tom Hoge (10th), Troy Merritt (11th), Adam Schenk (15th), Stephan Jaeger (21st)