By Andy Lack

Greetings, and welcome to a brand new weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the Scramble with Rick, every Tuesdays and Fridays on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed. I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!

The Basics 

• Course: Southern Hills Country Club
• Location: Tulsa, Oklahoma
• Designer: Perry Maxwell (1936), with a 2019 historic renovation by Gil Hanse (2019)
• Length: Par 70, 7,335 yards
• Hazards: Water in play on 13 holes
• Fairways: Bermuda-grass, measuring 40 yards wide on average
• Rough: 2’5” inch Bermuda-grass with Tall Fescue
• Greens: 5,227 square feet on average pure Bent-grass

We’ve officially reached the second major of the year, and I could not be more excited. Southern Hills is a golf course that I’ve played before, and it absolutely blew away my expectations. From an architectural standpoint, I believe it is one of the finest properties in America, and my prediction is that it will provide for the best viewing experience of the entire year. Southern Hills has hosted seven major championships, including the U.S. Open three times, and the PGA Championship four times. It also hosted the 2021 Senior PGA Championship, won by Alex Cejka, which is the first time we’ve seen professional competition here since Gil Hanse’s changes.

The course was designed in 1936 by famed architect Perry Maxwell, a friend, collaborator, and peer of Alister MacKenzie. They actually worked together on Crystal Downs, a masterpiece in its own right. Right off the bat, I imagine viewers will notice a distinct similarity to Augusta National. Southern Hills is an extremely regal golf course, with elevated, sloping greens, deep bunkers, and short grass everywhere. In 2019, Gil Hanse conducted an elaborate historic renovation in effort to restore many of Maxwell’s original elements to the property, while still being able to withstand modern technology. We’ll touch more on Hanse’s work soon, but first, allow me to elaborate on what makes Southern Hills such a special place.

The Maxwell property has all of the elements of a magnificent golf course: grand, rolling topography, elevation changes that provide for uneven lies, provocative and exacting green complexes, and short grass everywhere. These are the very same reasons that we love Augusta so much, and Southern Hills has all of this. Add in the unpredictability of Bermuda-rough, and golfers will be forced to abandon the track-man style of golf we have grown so accustomed to on the PGA Tour, and think their around this property.

Southern Hills is the pinnacle of American, parkland golf. Every hole curves between tall oaks, and the green complexes are incredibly small for how long the course is. In contrast with recent major venues such as Torrey Pines and Kiawah Island, Southern Hills is not an overly long golf course. There are essentially only three long par fours, the first, the 16th, and 18th, which is a small number for a major championship venue, and eight par fours measure under 455 yards. The real beef of this course comes on the par threes and par fives. Three of the par fours measure over 220 yards, and both par fives measure over 630 yards!

The 18th holes is one of the finest finishing holes in the country, and I imagine it will play closer to a par five than a par four. To this day, it is probably the hardest par four I have ever played. The 18th is a 491 yard uphill dogleg right, with a creek that bisects the fairway at the 305 yard mark and treacherous fairway bunkers. Players who do not hit the fairway will have little to no chance of hitting the green, which sits at the top of the hill below the clubhouse. Players will be faced with an uphill, long iron approach shot to a small and undulating green with a false front, surrounded by deep bunkers. Approach shots just a few yards short will roll 50 yards back down the hill. Depending on the pin position, players are dead in the green-side bunkers as well. My guess is that it will play as one of the toughest holes of the entire year.

When I talked about Southern Hills in December in my early majors preview, the biggest difference I pointed out between it and Augusta was the gnarly Bermuda rough. With that being said, I played the course in August. According to members, the rough is not as sticky this time of year due to the cooler climate. Southern Hills actually has very wide fairways, but the course is all still about angles. I remember thinking that I would have shot a much better score had I taken more irons off the tee, which is exactly the approach that Tiger took when he won here in 2007. Now, the course is over 200 yards longer than it was in 2007, and the fairways are actually wider now as well. Southern Hills is certainly an easier driving course than it was in 2007, but everything else got harder.

Alex Cejka, 2021 Senior PGA Champion, described the driving dilemma well. “This course is tricky. You can hit drivers, but you can get in a lot of trouble. I want to hit a lot of drivers, but the question is, is it worth it to be 20, 30 yards further and take the trouble on. It’s a really tough track, you really have to shape your ball well. It’s a good ball-striking course, and around the greens, it’s tricky too. They’re undulated, they’re all a bit raised up, and the bunkers have deep lips, so you really don’t want to short-side yourself.” I’ll dig into how this affects my handicapping process soon, but first, let’s talk more about Gil Hanse’s renovation.

Historic Renovation 

Gil Hanse has done restorative work on Aronomink, Plainfield, Ridgewood, Doral, TPC Boston, Winged Foot, and the Country Club, which will be hosting the U.S. Open in just a few weeks. Better than maybe anyone else, Hanse deeply understands how to restore the original golden age qualities, while still accounting for modern technology. Bunker styles, edges around the greens, and collection areas were completely restored. The green complexes were re-built with pure Bent-grass. The creeks were restored with water, which now come into play on 15 out of 18 holes. A fair amount of trees were removed, and over 200 yards of length was added as well. As previously mentioned, the fairways were widened as well, and rough was eliminated around the greens in favor of short-grass. Steve Stricker discussed how post renovation, Southern Hills is more generous off the tee, but more demanding in every other aspect.

Here’s a quote from Gil Hanse that really stuck with me. “It’s all about firm greens. Those players work so hard on their games, and technology is now conspiring with them to maximize their swings. What they’re looking for is a predictable result on every single shot. Well, if a green is firm, you’re not sure if it’s going to bounce or check, bounce twice and check, or not check at all. You have a much harder time controlling it with firm greens. If that’s part of the test, it emphasizes hitting the fairway. You hit it in the rough and you have firm greens, you’re done. So the ability to move water through the greens quicker and provide the opportunity for the superintendent to get the greens firmer and faster is really critical for clubs that aspire to host major championships.”

In the words of Hanse, Tour pros work their entire life to create a predictable outcome. They like to know that a 7-iron flies exactly 189 yards, with a specific launch angle, smash factor, and spin rate. Contrary to the average PGA Tour stop, a golf course like Southern Hills eliminates predictable outcomes because of the absence of flat lies, undulation and short grass around the greens. Players have no idea where the ball is going to go, where it’s going to stop, or what they will be left with, which is at the crux of my argument for why the 2022 PGA Championship will be the best viewing experience of the year.

Quotes and Weather

I would be remiss not to mention the wind. Many of the quotes from the Senior PGA were focused on the swirling winds, and how it can be very difficult to make club choice decisions. Here’s a quote I found interesting from Steve Stricker. “Any hole can jump up and get you. You have to manage your emotions, your game, all the way around this place. I’ve gone for the green two times on 17 the last two days when they moved it up and still played the hole in one over par. Even when you think you have a birdie opportunity, it’s still difficult. You just need to know how to manage your game.”

Tulsa also has such a high spread of weather variance. In the summer months, it’s extremely hot, but in the winter months, it can get extremely cold. We are used to seeing this course under the blistering heat of August, which is why turf conditions are incredibly challenging to maintain here. Superintendent Russ Myers, who previously spent time at Augusta National, does an incredible job. It’s going to be fascinating to see what the weather does this week. As it stands now, Thursday will see a consistent wind speed between 16 and 18 mph with gusts between 28 and 36 mph. Friday gets even worse, with consistent wind speeds of 18-21 mph with gusts between 28 and 41 mph. Saturday looks relatively calm in the morning, but will see consistent wind speeds between 18 and 22 mph, with gusts up to 29 mph in the afternoon. Sunday looks to be the calmest with consistent wind speeds between 6 and 8 mph and gusts from 10 to 16 mph. Also, the wind is going to be coming mainly from the South, except on Sunday where it’s all over the place. This will mean a lot of crosswind holes, and players will need to have some control over their golf ball and the ability to work it in both directions.

Final point before we dig into some trends and numbers: I have a theory that this course favors a draw, especially the front nine. One could argue that holes number one, two, three, five, six, and eight all favor a draw. It’s a working theory, but there might be something there.

Trends 

• Every single one of the last 15 winners of the PGA Championship made the cut in their prior start. 
• 14/15 finished in the Top 30 in their prior start. The one winner who did not was Phil Mickelson, who finished 69th in his prior start, but was the first round leader.
• Tiger Woods (twice) and Rory McIlroy won the week before winning the PGA in 2006, 2007, and 2012. Overall, the last 15 winners of the PGA had seven Top-five finishes and three wins in their prior start before the PGA. Almost 50% of the last 15 PGA champions finished Top-five in their prior start! Even surprise winners like Y.E. Yang, Keegan Bradley, Jason Dufner, and Jimmy Walker, were all coming off a Top-20 finish.
• Every single one of the last 15 winners (except Phil) also finished Top-30 in tee to green in their prior start. It’s absolutely essential to be coming in with good ball-striking form. 
• Seven of the last 10 winners of the PGA Championship were American. The only non-Americans were Rory McIlroy (twice) and Jason Day, who one could argue, both have a very powerful, American game.
• Five of the last 10 winners of the PGA Championship have ranked inside the Top-10 in the official world golf rankings. Outside of Phil, who was ranked 116th, Jimmy Walker was the lowest ranked winner at 48th.
• The PGA Championship has also been the best major for newcomers. Eight of the last 10 winners have not teed it up in more than five previous PGA Championships.
• 7 of the last 10 PGA Championship winners have been younger than 30 years old. Collin Morikawa and Keegan Bradley both won on their PGA Championship debut. The PGA Championship has proven to be the major where experience matters the least.

Let’s dig into the stats.

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • I’ve already alluded to how the course is less challenging off the tee since Hanse’s renovation. Here’s a quote from Retief Goosen elaborating on that. “The fairways are about double the width that they were back in 2001. This course is made for bombers. They made the fairways really wide, the long hitters are going to love it.”
  • For what it’s worth, superintendent Russ Myers said that he believed more drivers would be hit here than in 2007. Many of the seniors talked about this, and I definitely fell into this trap as well when I played. Standing on the tee at Southern Hills, it’s hard to not driver because the course looks so wide open due to the tree removal. It’s no longer a claustrophobic tree-lined golf course like we saw in 2007. For example, in 2007, the 10th hole used to be a 6 iron down to the corner, followed by a wedge. Now players will probably consider hitting driver to get as close as they can to the creek, in search of a better angle to the green.
  • While this is not a major venue characterized by distance like a Torrey Pines or Kiawah Island, power off the tee will certainly help. It’s not close to the most important skill-set at Southern Hills, and I do believe a player with below average distance can absolutely win on their golf course. I am choosing to put a small weight on distance because Southern Hills has turned into more of a driver heavy course, but length will not be a deal-breaker for me. I still believe that iron play and short game are far more important here.

 

• Approach
  • One of my favorite changes that Gil Hanse made was the leveling of the edges on greens. Over time, edges on greens tend to rise up, like bulges. This creates a bowl like effect, where balls will collect into the middle instead of rolling off the edges. Post Hanse, the greens are now more crowned, almost like Pinehurst, which is really just going to exacerbate misses even more. The elimination of sharp edges are going to make the already small greens play even smaller. Add in the short grass, and inaccurate approach shots will shoot off greens to far away places, placing even more of an emphasis on accurate iron play.
  • Many of the approach shots will also be from uneven lies. This is not track-man golf.
  • Due to the eight par fours that measure under 460 yards, as well as the fact that both of the par fives are true three-shot holes, players will have their fair share of approaches inside 150 yards. The best long-term players in this field inside 150 yards have been Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Cameron Smith, Russell Henley, Keegan Bradley, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Scottie Scheffler, Jason Dufner, Rory McIlroy, and Erik Van Rooyen. 
  • Due to the three long par fours and three long par threes, long irons will still be an essential ingredient as well. The best long-term players in this field from 200 yards plus have been Bryson DeChambeau, Paul Casey, Jon Rahm, Will Zalatoris, Ryan Palmer, Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton, Matthew Wolff, Justin Thomas, and Gary Woodland. 
  • Justin Thomas is the only player in the field to rank inside the Top-10 in long-term proximity inside 150 yards and from 200 yards plus.
  • In a vacuum, approach will be the most important attribute this week. The degree of difficulty for approach shots here will be incredibly high due to the uneven lies, leveled off greens, and surrounding short grass. Approach shots that just miss slightly could repel 30 yards into a collection area. I am sizably over-weight on approach this week.

 

• Around the Green
  • As already alluded to, the short grass around the greens is going to lead the ball into some strange places. If you remember the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock, you know exactly what I’m talking about. Balls that roll off the edges of greens are just going to continue to run. Examples of this would be right behind the first green, left of the third green, right of the fifth green, and any ball hit left of the 10th green will likely roll 30-40 feet towards the creek, leaving a very difficult recovery shot.
  • I was extremely heavy on short game at the Masters, and I find it to be just as important this week. If anything, short game will be even more important here than it was at the Masters because these greens are even smaller than Augusta. The best around the green players over the last year have been Matt Jones, Matt Kuchar, Chris Kirk, Sungjae Im, Harris English, Jimmy Walker, Talor Gooch, Tyrrell Hatton, Kevin Kisner, and Rory McIlroy. 
  • Southern Hills is also characterized by its deep bunkers. The best long-term bunker players in this field have been Lucas Herbert, Matt Kuchar, Adam Hadwin, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Justin Thomas, Thomas Pieters, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Xander Schauffele, Louis Oosthuizen, and Sungjae Im. 

 

• Putting 
  • Ben Crenshaw once said about Southern Hills, “You could putt these greens your entire life and not figure them out.” Maxwell is famous for subtle, internal breaks, which are called “Maxwell rolls.”
  • I will be using a very similar model to the one I deployed at Augusta, combining long-term Bent-grass putting with fast green putting, as the best way evaluate players who should be best suited for the task at hand.
  • The best long-term Bent-grass putters in this field have been Alex Noren, Harris English, Mackenzie Hughes, Patrick Cantlay, Cameron Tringale, Jason Kokrak, Troy Merritt, Abraham Ancer, Cameron Smith, and Bryson DeChambeau. 
  • The best long-term putters in this field on fast greens have been Matt Fitzpatrick, Mackenzie Hughes, Cameron Smith, Ian Poulter, Adam Scott, Alex Noren, Bryson DeChambeau, Sam Burns, Dustin Johnson, and Zach Johnson. 

 

• Scoring Stats 
  • Like any major championship test, I will be trying to identify players that raise their baseline on harder courses. The best long-term players in this field in difficult scoring conditions have been Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama, Daniel Berger, Louis Oosthuizen, Xander Schauffele, and Bryson DeChambeau. 
  • Par will be an incredible score at Southern Hills this week, and it will be important to identify the players that can mitigate disaster. The best players in this field over the past year at avoiding bogeys have been Sungjae Im, Jon Rahm, Shane Lowry, Daniel Berger, Seamus Power, Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Smith, Will Zalatoris, Mito Pereira, and Talor Gooch. 
  • As is the case on any course with a low greens in regulation percentage, scrambling will be crucial as well. The best long-term players in this field in scrambling percentage have been Matt Kuchar, Robert MacIntyre, Harris English, Daniel Berger, Kevin Na, Sungjae Im, Cameron Young, Shane Lowry, Patrick Cantlay, and Brian Harman. 
  • The only player in this field to rank Top-10 in difficult scoring conditions, bogey avoidance, and scrambling is Daniel Berger. 

 

• Comp Courses 
  • I can’t say enough about the Augusta National connection. There’s MacKenzie/Maxwell angle. There’s the Russ Myers superintendent angle. There’s the rolling topography, the elevation changes, the uneven lies, the raised undulating greens, the short grass, and the heavy emphasis on approach play and short game. There are few key differences between Augusta and Southern Hills. The latter has Bermuda-rough, and there is certainly more of a penalty at Southern Hills for missing the fairway. There is far more of an emphasis on ar five scoring at Augusta, whereas par five scoring at Southern Hills is virtually irrelevant. Finally, the greens are even smaller at Southern Hills than Augusta, placing less of an emphasis on lag putting, and more of an emphasis on chipping off short grass. Still, Augusta is far and away the best comp, and a golf course I will be looking closely at this week. The best players in this field at Augusta National have been Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Rose, Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Smith, Will Zalatoris, and Jordan Spieth. 
  • I’ve alluded to the wind and short grass at Shinnecock Hills already, host of the 2018 U.S. Open. Shinnecock Hills, another course I have been lucky enough to play, also demands precise approach play, swirling winds, and a deft touch around the greens. The best players at Shinnecock Hills in this field have been Brooks Koepka, Tommy Fleetwood, Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Patrick Reed, Daniel Berger, Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick, Hideki Matsuyama, and Louis Oosthuizen. 
  • Finally, Memorial Park, site of the Houston Open, is another challenging Texoma golf course, with short-grass everywhere, swirling winds, Bermuda rough, and raised undulating greens. Tom Doak, who designed Memorial Park, studied the work of Alister MacKenzie and Perry Maxwell deeply. The best players at Memorial Park have been Carlos Ortiz, Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, Sam Burns, Jason Kokrak, Scottie Scheffler, Russell Henley, Cameron Tringale, Aaron Wise, and Mackenzie Hughes. 

 

Model Inputs 

• Off the Tee (10%)
  • Strokes Gained Off the Tee (5%)
  • Driving Distance (5%)
• Approach (36%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (20%)
  • Greens in Regulation Gained (5%)
  • Long-term Proximity 100-150 yards (6%)
  • Long-term Proximity 200 yards plus (5%)
• Around the Green (17%)
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green (12%)
  • Sand Saves (5%)
• Scoring Stats (15%)
  • Bogey Avoidance (5%)
  • Scrambling (5%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Difficult Scoring Conditions (5%)
• Comp Courses 
  • Augusta National (8%)
  • Memorial Park (2%)
  • Shinnecock Hills (2%)

Top 20 

1. Justin Thomas
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Scottie Scheffler
4. Daniel Berger
5. Cameron Smith
6. Sam Burns
7. Patrick Cantlay
8. Xander Schauffele
9. Talor Gooch
10. Hideki Matsuyama
11. Shane Lowry
12. Jon Rahm
13. Sungjae Im
14. Will Zalatoris
15. Adam Hadwin
16. Paul Casey
17. Harold Varner III
18. Corey Conners
19. Gary Woodland
20. Louis Oosthuizen

 

Most over-valued: Brooks Koepka (68th), Collin Morikawa (38th), Jordan Spieth (34th), Dustin Johnson (23rd), Tiger Woods (120th), Abraham Ancer (90th), Justin Rose (77th), Bryson DeChambeau (65th), Max Homa (63rd), Jason Day (60th)

Most under-valued: Daniel Berger (4th), Talor Gooch (9th), Adam Hadwin (15th), Harold Varner III (17th), Gary Woodland (19th), Aaron Wise (22nd), Luke List (27th), Cameron Tringale (28th), Tom Hoge (29th), Keith Mitchell (35th)