Greetings, and welcome to a brand new weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the Scramble with Rick, every Tuesdays and Fridays on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed. I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!
The Basics
- Course: St. George’s Golf & Country Club
- Location: Etobicoke, Toronto, Ontario
- Designer: Stanley Thompson (1929) with various renovations from Robbie Robinson, Doug Carrick, Tom Doak, & Ian Andrew
- Length: Par 70 (7,014 yards)
- Hazards: A creek appears to come into play on four holes
- Fairways: Based on other courses in the region, my guess would be Bent-grass*
- Rough: Based on other courses in the region, my guess would be Blue-grass*
- Greens: Pure Bent-grass
* I will update this when the official GSCAA sheet comes out on Monday.
St. George’s Golf and Country Club was formerly known as the Royal York Golf Club, and founded in the roaring twenties with Canadian Pacific Railway money. In 1929, club founders hired Stanley Thompson, widely regarded as the finest Canadian golf course architect. Thompson has designed 144 courses in Canada, and another 25 in the United Stats as well. He is probably best known for St. George’s and Banff Springs, both consistently referenced as two of the greatest courses in Canada. Thompson, along with Donald Ross and Robert Trent Jones, were co-founders of the American Society of Golf Architects (ASGCA). Thompson became design partners with Robert Trent Jones in 1932, and you’ll notice a lot of Thompson’s influence in some of Jones’ more high-profile American designs.
One of Thompson’s closest associates was Robbie Robinson, who continued to work on the club all the way up until his death in 1989. Robinson made some significant changes to club in the early 1960s in preparation for the 1968 Canadian Open. St. George’s has been home to this tournament five times (1933, 1949, 1960, 1968, and 2010).
In 1992, Doug Carrick was hired to do more renovations. He added a new green to the 10th hole, as well as some new tee boxes. In 2001, Ian Andrew completed a bunker restoration, and in 2014, the great Tom Doak was brought on to help Andrew rebuilt all of the greens. The most significant change was the restoration of the original third hole. I am a massive fan of Doak, and I consider him the best working architect. I love the way that he approaches green complexes, so I would imagine that St. George’s have a little more color and provocation to them than we are used to seeing on the PGA Tour.
My immediate observations of this course would be that it’s tight, claustrophobic, tree-lined, and quirky. There are blind shots, elevation changes, and crowned greens. A meandering creek runs through the property but it only appears to come into play on a few holes. The course features five par threes. One of them only measures 146 yards, and the other four all measure between 204 and 215 yards. The course also features three par fives, which all measure between 528 and 560 yards. Fifteen looks like an absolutely awesome par five. The green sits atop an extremely large hill, with a severe slope. I would imagine that players will think twice before attempting the green in two, as it rests in a narrow corridor 40 feet above the fairway. The 15th has been referred to before as the best par five in Canada. There are a fair amount of longer par fours as well. Seven of them measure above 445 yards on the scorecard.
The best we have in terms of course data is the 2010 Canadian Open, won by Carl Peterson at 14 under par, which was before Tom Doak re-did all of the greens. For this reason, I spent a lot of time digging into reviews from amateurs who have recently played the course. Here’s one that stood out to me, “As a mid single digit handicap, the Blue tees at 6,800 is a tough test. I hit more 3 and 4 irons, which go 200-215, than on any golf course. The greens are the best I’ve seen in Canada. You won’t find a better place to get your butt kicked if your long irons and putter aren’t on point.” This actually falls in line with part of my argument about Southern Hills. People immediately just think that short courses equal a lot of wedges, and long courses equal a lot of long irons, yet that’s not always the case when we actually map out the holes. I know that St. George’s is only a touch over 7,000 yards on the scorecard, but consider the fact that it features five par threes (four of them over 200 yards), seven par fours over 445 yards, and at least two par fives that are reachable with a long iron. I would also imagine with how narrow the fairways are here, that players will be hitting less than driver often. Add all of this together, and players will potentially have an approach shot upwards of 175 yards on close to 60% of their holes. That’s essentially the amount of long iron approaches we see at Muirfield Village, a par 72 measuring over 7,500 yards. Oddly enough, a par 70, measuring over 7,000 yards, with five par threes is not all that shorter. The five par threes and three short pars kill the scorecard yardage, but I would imagine we see a large plurality of approach shots between 175 and 225 this week at St. George’s.
Here’s another quote that caught my attention. “The routing takes you out through a highly undulated landscape over rolling hills and through troughs. The start takes us from an elevated tee through a small valley on the tee shot and then up the back side of the valley to a green nestled at the top. Natural in its setting, the green slopes severely back to front with the slope of the hill. Thompson most certainly allowed the landscape and its features to dictate the routing, yet the end result was a seamless integration giving the idea that the course had always been there.” Hearing this does not leave me surprised that Doak was willing to take on the project. The common through-lines with many of reviews are undulating, plateaued greens, heavy bunkering, holes that create visual trickery and illusions, and rolling topography.
The RBC Canadian Open website has a mini description of all of the holes, and while I will not bore you with running through all of them, here are some more of the key buzzwords that kept popping up: narrow fairways, intimidating tee shots, tons of bunkering, elevated, steep greens with severe back to front slopes, false fronts, blind approach shots to narrow, crowned greens, and dramatic fairway bunkering. Honestly, the best way that I would describe this course is a mix between TPC Potomac and Muirfield Village. TPC Potomac is similar in length, requires accuracy off the tee, is heavily tree-lined, with small Bent-grass greens and deep bunkers. Muirfield Village checks a lot of the skill-set and aesthetic boxes as well.
I am not completely sold that St. George’s is going to play as difficult as these two courses only because I can’t get a read on the thickness of the rough. My guess is that it will not be as thick as what we saw at Muirfield Village, but based on the climate and agronomy, it will be enough of a problem that playing from the fairway will be imperative. If this week sees pristine conditions and an absence of wind, it will probably play closer to what we generally see at TPC River Highlands (still by no means a birdie fest, but closer to 20-under par). If we get tougher conditions, and the rough is grown out, I would guess the winning score falls closer to 12-under par. In the 2010 Canadian Open, the winning score was 14 under. Yes, modern technology has improved and the strength of field has increased, but the course also got more challenging, and now features Doak greens. The architecture is too strong for this to be a pure birdie fest, but I never want to under-estimate the modern Tour pro, which is preventing me from saying St. George’s will be “hard.” I expect scoring this week to fall somewhere in the middle. Now let’s run through the stats to look at.
Stats
- Off the Tee
- St. George’s appears to be a very narrow driving course where it is essential to hit fairways. I am relying heavily on my off the tee model from TPC Potomac, and attempting to identify the most accurate drivers in the field, as well as players that raise their off the tee baseline on short and narrow golf courses.
- The players who hit the most fairways in this field are Ryan Armour, Brendon Todd, Brian Stuard, Martin Laird, Jim Herman, Ryan Moore, Satoshi Kodaira, Tyler Duncan, Austin Cook, and John Huh.
- The best off the tee players on courses under 7,200 yards are Rory McIlroy, Cameron Champ, Corey Conners, Tony Finau, Keith Mitchell, Scottie Scheffler, Chris Kirk, Justin Thomas, Luke List, and Emiliano Grillo.
- Approach
- Iron play is always crucial on courses with smaller greens that feature a great deal of severity and undulation. As I’ve already alluded to, I am far more focused on the longer proximity buckets than I am on the shorter ones. I just think that when you actually map this course out hole by hole, with all of the longer par threes and fours, and reachable par fives, 175-225 yards is going to be essential this week. The best long-term players from this yardage range are Sebastian Munoz, Luke List, Austin Smotherman, Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, Scottie Scheffler, Charley Hoffman, Shane Lowry, Cameron Champ, and Harold Varner III.
- Around the Green
- Similar to TPC Potomac and Muirfield Village, I definitely have an above average weight on around the green play this week. These greens are on the smaller side, and I am expecting a low greens in regulation percentage, especially when factoring in my belief that players will be approaching many of them with a long iron in hand. Secondly, Doak courses tend to have really tricky green complexes and surrounding areas. In my opinion, this is Doak’s greatest strength as a designer. One of the friends I play golf with is a member at Bel-Air Country Club, where Doak recently completed a restoration. The running joke amongst members is that anytime you get a really strange bounce around the green, and end up in an uncomfortable spot, you got “Doaked.” He has an incredible knack for creating thought provoking green complexes, and this is generally consistent throughout all of his work.
- St. George’s is also heavily bunkered, so I will be spending some time on Sand Saves as well. The best long-term bunker players in this field are Patrick Reed, Justin Thomas, Matt Fitzpatrick, Adam Hadwin, Matthias Schwab, Chris Kirk, Wesley Bryan, Brendon Todd, Ryan Armour, and Sung Kang.
- Putting
- In terms of putting, we’ve mainly covered most of my thoughts on these greens already. I do believe there is some challenge and severity to these greens. From everything that I’ve read, they are incredibly well maintained and extremely pure. Similar to Muirfield Village, I would imagine that if players are able to start the ball on the right line, they will be very pleased with the end result. Ultimately, I have a pretty standard weight on Bent-grass putting. The best long-term Bent-grass putters in this field are Brendon Todd, Mackenzie Hughes, Johnson Wagner, Brandt Snedeker, Cameron Smith, Rory McIlroy, Pat Perez, Jim Knous, Adam Schenk, and Justin Rose.
- Here’s a video of course superintendent, Ian McQueen, discussing the club’s decision to switch to pure Bent-grass surfaces.
- Scoring Stats
- In terms of scoring stats, I only have a small weight on bogey avoidance. St. George’s does not seem like the type of course that will reward players for their aggressiveness. I also don’t believe that St. George’s will be brutally challenging and we will need to identify players who significantly raise their baseline in difficult scoring conditions. Ultimately, bogey avoidance can help me identify players that play mistake free golf, which I believe will be rewarded on this golf course. The best long-term players in bogey avoidance are Shane Lowry, Matt Fitzpatrick, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Cameron Smith, Sam Burns, Ryan Armour, Corey Conners, and Mark Hubbard.
- Comp Courses
- As previously mentioned, I feel most strongly about the TPC Potomac comparison here. The best players in this field at TPC Potomac have been Ryan Armour, Matt Fitzpatrick, Stephan Jaeger, Rory McIlroy, Sung Kang, J.T. Poston, Adam Schenk, C.T. Pan, Luke Donald, and Corey Conners.
- In terms of secondary options, I do see a lot of Muirfield Village in St. George’s, mainly in terms of the agronomy, rolling topography, and in skill-set (emphasis on keeping the ball in play off the tee, long iron precision, and a deft touch around the greens.) Both courses can’t really be bomb and gauged. They rather reward a more patient style of golf. The best players in this field at Muirfield Village have been Justin Rose, Patrick Reed, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, Rory Sabbatini, Justin Thomas, Matt Wallace, Chase Seiffert, and Jason Dufner.
- On the off chance that St. George’s play on the easier side, we might see something more similar to TPC River Highlands. The Pete Dye design is by no means a birdie fest, and it still requires precision from tee to green, but it tends to yield winning scores in the mid to high teens. The best players in this field at TPC River Highlands have been Ryan Moore, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Reed, Charley Hoffman, Sam Burns, Brandt Snedeker, Brendon Todd, Mackenzie Hughes, Hank Lebioda, and Kramer Hickok.
- Although it features different agronomy, Innisbrook is one of the only courses on Tour that places a huge emphasis on driving accuracy and mid to long iron play. Despite its location in Florida, Innisbrook is tree-lined with a fair amount of elevation changes. The best players in this field at Innisbrook have been Sam Burns, Justin Thomas, Justin Rose, Bill Haas, Robert Garrigus, Patrick Reed, Corey Conners, Sahith Theegala, Adam Hadwin, and Jason Dufner.
- Colonial is another positional Bent-grass course that is similar in length and places an emphasis on restraint off the tee. Both are classical designs with a fair amount of doglegs. Colonial got extremely baked out this year by Sunday, which I do not imagine will happen at St. George’s, but in terms of agronomy, design features, and required in skill-set, Colonial might be worth looking at as well. The best players in this field at Colonial have been Justin Rose, Tony Finau, Patrick Reed, Corey Conners, Danny Lee, Adam Hadwin, Emiliano Grillo, Rory Sabbatini, Charley Hoffman, and Sebastian Munoz.
Model Inputs
- Off the Tee (20%)
- Fairways Gained (8%)
- Strokes Gained Off the Tee (6%)
- Strokes Gained Off the Tee on Courses under 7,200 yards (6%)
- Approach (32%)
- Strokes Gained Approach (20%)
- Proximity 175-200 yards (5%)
- Proximity 200 yards plus (7%)
- Around the Green (13%)
- Strokes Gained Around the Green (7%)
- Sand Saves (6%)
- Putting (12%)
- Strokes Gained Putting Bent-grass (12%)
- Scoring Stats (5%)
- Bogey Avoidance (5%)
- Comp Courses/Course History (18%)
- TPC Potomac (6%)
- Muirfield Village (3%)
- TPC River Highlands (3%)
- Valspar (3%)
- Colonial (3%)
Top 20
- Rory McIlroy
- Justin Thomas
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Tony Finau
- Scottie Scheffler
- Sebastian Munoz
- Adam Hadwin
- Corey Conners
- Ryan Armour
- Chris Kirk
- Sam Burns
- Shane Lowry
- C.T. Pan
- Harold Varner III
- Cameron Smith
- Justin Rose
- Martin Laird
- Vaughn Taylor
- Luke Donald
- Tyrrell Hatton
Most over-valued based on expected price: Cam Smith (15th), Tyrrell Hatton (20th), Patrick Reed (28th), Jhonattan Vegas (36th), Mackenzie Hughes (38th), Sahith Theegala (83rd),
Most under-valued based on expected price: Sebastian Munoz (6th), Adam Hadwin (7th), Ryan Armour (9th), C.T. Pan (13th), Martin Laird (17th), Vaughn Taylor (18th), Luke Donald (19th), Austin Smotherman (23rd)
Best of luck this week! – AL
