By Andy Lack

Greetings, and welcome to a weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the betting preview with Rick on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed. I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!

The Basics 

• Course: The Country Club of Jackson
• Location: Jackson, Mississippi
• Designer: Dick Wilson (1962), John Fought (2018)
• Length: Par 72; 7,461 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on five holes
• Fairways: 419 Bermuda-grass, measuring 29 yards wide on average
• Rough: 419 Bermuda-grass with Zoysia, 2 inches
• Greens: 6,200 square foot Champion Ultra Dwarf Bermuda-grass, running 12 on the stimp

 

The Sanderson Farms Championship has been annually held on the PGA Tour since 1968. While it has been hosted at a number of courses over the years, such as Hattiesburg Country Club, Annandale Golf Club, it found its current home in 2014 at the Country Club of Jackson in Jackson, Mississippi. It’s difficult to speak much about the Country Club of Jackson’s personality. It’s a standard par 72, with four par threes, 10 par fours, and four par fives. The par threes are generally the toughest aspect of the course, and they rank as the seventh, fifth, fourth, and 10th most difficult holes on property. All of them play right around even par, which I would consider “tough” at the C.C. of Jackson, relatively speaking. None feature over a 21% birdie rate, and two play over 210 yards.

Outside of the 15th which is drivable, six par fours measure between 400 and 450 yards. There are three fairly long par fours, the sixth, 16th, and 18th, which all play over 475 yards and historically rate as the three hardest holes on the course. Not that we should be looking at hole length scoring, an incredibly fraudulent and problematic stat, to begin with, but the Country Club of Jackson features a relatively even distribution. Players will have their fair share of wedges, not a ton of middle irons, and a decent amount of long iron approaches as well.

The par fives are where players can really eat. The quartet features the easiest, second easiest, fourth easiest, and fifth easiest holes on the course. All feature over a 25% birdie rate, and par five scoring is certainly a stat that has been highly correlated with success at the Country Club of Jackson.

Overall, what you see is what you get at the Country Club of Jackson. It features extremely banal architecture, and it might be the straightest courses that we see all season, outside of maybe Torrey Pines. In terms of its architectural identity, the Country Club of Jackson could be considered an easier, Bermuda-grass version of Torrey Pines. It’s all out in front of you, there aren’t any tricks. The biggest defense of the course is its sheer length, which is still, less than imposing at best. The only conceivable way for the course to have some bite is with firm and fast conditions, and tournament organizers unfortunately overwater the greens every year. As you can probably gather, it generally ranks as one of the easiest courses on Tour every single year. In 2021, it ranked as the sixth easiest course on Tour, and every single year since, it has ranked inside the top-12 easiest courses on the PGA Tour schedule. The formula at the Country Club of Jackson is simple. Score on the par fives, hit your wedges close on the medium length par fours, and get hot with the putter. The course is too long to be simply defined as a wedge-fest, but don’t be fooled— we generally see little separation of moderate to elite tee to green play in Jackson. Let’s dive into the stats.

 

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • Last year, 11.4% of strokes gained at the Country Club of Jackson came off the tee, which is comfortably below the Tour average of 15.2%. That number does tick up to 14.4% historically.
  • The Country Club of Jackson ranked 23rd out of 38 courses in off the tee difficulty last year as well. At a macro level, this course provides a bit more bite on the first shot than the second.
  • Part of the reason for this is that the Country Club of Jackson features the ninth most narrow fairways on the PGA Tour, yet let’s not get carried away here. Similar to Silverado, the penalty for missing fairways at the Country Club of Jackson is far from severe. The Country Club of Jackson ranked 28th out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalty. The year before, it ranked 36th out of 40 courses, and in 2019, it ranked 26th out of 29 courses in the same statistic. Historically, the Country Club of Jackson ranks as one of the least penal courses off the tee on the schedule. 
  • I would still argue that in this heat, the nature of the Bermuda rough at Jackson is a touch more problematic than what we saw at the Fortinet. Still, the greens are too receptive for spin control out of the rough to become an issue. Last year, the Country Club of Jackson ranked 12th out of 38 courses in rough penalty, but it’s far from enough of an inconvenience to deter players from hitting driver. Also, there’s very few protruding trees and water hazards in play off the tee (C.C. of Jackson ranked 33rd out of 38 in non-rough penalty and 27th out of 38 course in fraction of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke). Ultimately, while the rough is a bit more unpredictable than Silverado, there is little deterrence for players to not pound driver on every hole. 
  • Average driving distance is higher than Tour average, and historic driving accuracy is just 54%, compared to the Tour average of 62%. This proves that the strategy off the tee is very similar to what we saw at Silverado. Players will miss a ton of fairways, but its not going to affect players’ strategy off the tee. Here’s a quote from 2018 champion, Cameron Champ, “Obviously driver is the key out here. If I hit driver well out here, like I said, it’s a very scoreable course. So I just kept hitting it as much as I could. Even if the fairways were tighter, I felt like if I was further up, even in the rough versus hitting a 3-wood being 40 yards back, I would rather be up there. I guess that’s the game plan.” 
  • Whether driving distance is a stat that we want to spend a ton of time with on this course is an interesting debate. Ryan Armour won this tournament averaging 269 yards off the tee, and Cameron Champ won averaging 334 yards off the tee the following year. Here’s a quote from Ryan Armour throwing a bit of cold water on the distance argument. “My strength is driving it in the fairway, hitting it on the green, and trying to make putts. I don’t overpower a golf course. I don’t go for many par fives. It’s just about making percentage choices. Cameron Champ talks about the Country Club of Jackson as if its meant to be bomb and gauged, and Ryan Armour describes it as the perfect plodder’s track that can be picked apart methodically by hitting a high percentage of fairways and greens. So, which is it? Are we betting bombers or plodders? Well, let’s consider the fact that Champ and Armour are both on the extreme end of the spectrum in terms of their style. The  answer falls somewhere the middle. I wouldn’t necessarily recommend taking a “only bombers” approach, nor would I prioritize driving accuracy as a key stat either. Every single year, the leaderboard is populated by a fairly even split of longer and shorter players. Last year, Cameron Young and Trey Mullinax were offset by Andrew Landry and Henrik Norlander. In 2021, Scott Stallings and Cameron Davis were offset by Peter Malnati, J.T. Poston, and Norlander again. The list goes on. In 2020, Sebastian Munoz won with below average driving accuracy, but the player he beat in the playoff, Sungjae Im, led the field in driving accuracy. In 2021, Sergio hit a ton of fairways, but the players who finished second and third (Peter Malnati and JT Poston) ranked below average in driving accuracy. Last year, Cameron Young (runner-up) and Nick Watney (third place) both lost to the field in driving accuracy. If forced to choose, I would rather my players have distance over accuracy on this course, but I’m just not sold that what players do off the tee here is all that important to begin with. While distance certainly helps here, there are many players, Malnati and Poston for example, who have contended while being short and inaccurate. There are some golf courses where short and inaccurate players off the tee are dead on arrival. The Country Club of Jackson is not one of those. Norlander, another shorter player who isn’t very accurate either, finished fourth in 2022 while losing over two strokes off the tee. Norlander is able to consistently compete here every year.
  • If I’m looking at any off the tee metric, it would be a player’s ability to gain strokes on long golf courses. I don’t really care all that much if its with distance or accuracy, but how does a player perform on courses where it’s advantageous to hit driver on every hole? Do they improve or lower their baseline? The best players in this field off the tee on long golf courses are Luke List, Kevin Streelman, Brendan Steele, Sam Burns, Emiliano Grillo, Ryan Brehm, Trey Mullinax, Jim Herman, Ryan Moore, and Russell Henley. 

 

• Approach
  • Last year, 31.8% of strokes gained at the Country Club of Jackson came on approach, which is comfortably below the Tour average of 34.7%, although that number does tick up to 33.5% historically.
  • The Country Club of Jackson ranked 31st out of 38 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty last year as well. Every single year, it has ranked on the easier end of the spectrum in terms of approach difficulty.
  • Last year, it featured the 10th easiest greens to hit on the PGA Tour, and each of the last five years, it has featured one of the highest greens in regulation percentages on the PGA Tour. Last year, it ranked 30th out of 38 courses on approach shots under 150 yards, and 28th out of 38 courses in approach shots under 150 yards. The reason for this is simple: tournament organizers over-water the greens here to yield low scores. It’s a shame, as I greatly enjoy firm and fast Bermuda courses. This one doesn’t really get there.
  • I actually believe that one of the strengths of the Country Club of Jackson is that it features a fairly even approach shot distribution. The only range that is above Tour average is 100-150 yards. 16.5% of approach shots come from 100-125 yards, and 19.6% come from 125-150. We’re getting a solid 37% from that 100-150 range, so wedge play is definitely important, but there are enough long holes where 21.9% of approach shots come from 200 yards plus.
  • The best players in this field from 100-150 yards are Sam Burns, Russell Henley, Scott Stallings, Max McGreevy, Chez Reavie, Mark Hubbard, Matthias Schwab, Lucas Glover, Brendon Todd, and Keegan Bradley. 
  • The best players in this field from 200 yards plus are Alex Smalley, Austin Smotherman, Lucas Glover, Aaron Rai, Tyler Duncan, Gary Woodland, Luke List, Emiliano Grillo, Callum Tarren, and Ryan Armour. 

 

• Around the Green
  • Last year, 15.4% of strokes gained at the Country Club of Jackson came around the green, which is above the Tour average of 14.5%, although that number does tick back down to 13.6% historically.
  • The Country Club of Jackson ranked 27th out of 38 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty last year, and every single year, it ranks as one of the easier courses in around the green difficulty.
  • Last year, the Country Club of Jackson ranked 31st out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the fairway, 14th out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the rough, and 32nd out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the bunkers.
  • I do believe that at a macro level, chipping out of Bermuda rough can be difficult, but I struggle to make a legitimate argument for valuing short game on this course at all. The Country Club of Jackson is very easy, and features a high greens in regulation percentage. Any player that is relying heavily on their short game here is unlikely to be in contention.
  • Munoz won here in 2020 losing strokes around the green. Sergio won here in 2021 losing strokes around the green. Poston finished third losing strokes around the green. Five of the top-12 in 2021 lost strokes around the green. Four of the top-11 in 2022 lost strokes around the green. I will not be factoring any around the green metrics into my model this week.

 

• Putting
  • Last year, 41.4% of strokes gained at the Country Club of Jackson came putting, which is comfortably above the Tour average of 35.6%. Historically, that number ticks down to 38.5%, which is still comfortable above Tour average. Those numbers would definitely place the Country Club of Jackson in the putting contest zone, although it is worth noting that both Sergio and Burns have now won here in back to back years gaining a total of 0.8 strokes putting. Essentially, we’ve had two years in a row where the best ball-striker in the tournament just showed up. Regardless of venue, when Burns and Sergio have the ball on a string like that, they can win at any course, even the ones like the CC of Jackson that also allow Peter Malnati to compete. If we look farther down the leaderboard, this tournament still features a lot of objectively bad players just getting by on the strength of their putter (Malnati +9.2, Poston +8.5, Norlander +7.1, Watney +11.7). Based on the percentage of strokes gained that are coming with the flat-stick, I would still put the Country Club of Jackson in the category of courses that will not adequately weed out poor tee-to-green play. Players can make up ground on the greens here quickly.
  • In terms of degree of difficulty, the Country Club of Jackson ranked 35th out of 38 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty last year. I don’t really know what happened to the greens last year because it generally ranks a lot harder than that. In 2021, it ranked 14th out of 40 courses in putting difficulty, and in 2020, it ranked eighth out of 29 courses in putting difficulty. In the prior years, it ranked right around Tour average.
  • Last year, the Country Club of Jackson ranked 26th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from inside five feet, 30th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and 38th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from greater than 15 feet. John Fought spoke about how he wanted to emulate Ross-like subtleties on the greens. In my opinion, he failed at that. This was the easiest lag putting course on the PGA Tour last year, but in fairness, it might have just been a softer year. In the past, the course has ranked right around Tour average in putting difficulty. Last year appeared to be a bit of an anomaly when compared to the course’s historical baseline.
  • Ultimately, we definitely want to look at Bermuda putting on this golf course. Unless your having a Sam Burns peak tee to green week, which 98% of this field isn’t even capable of, you’ll have to rely at least somewhat on the flat-stick. The best long-term Bermuda-grass putters in this field are Chesson Hadley, Sam Burns, Brendon Todd, Denny McCarthy, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Adam Long, Vincent Whaley, Ryan Armour, Adam Hadwin, and Kevin Tway. 

 

• Scoring Stats 
  • One of the first things about the Country Club of Jackson that stood out to me was how essential it was to capitalize on the par fives. I am always inclined to look at par five on courses on stock par 72s, but the correlation at the Country Club of Jackson is even more pronounced. In 2021, every single player in the top-five finished top-10 in par five scoring. Burns (winner) finished fourth in par five scoring. Watney (runner-up) finished second. 2020 told a similar story. Sergio (winner) ranked seventh, and Poston, Keegan Bradley, Kristoffer Ventura, Tyler McCumber, and Denny McCarthy all finished top-six on the leaderboard and top-five in par five scoring. The best par five scorers over the last year have been Sam Burns, Brandon Wu, Matthew NeSmith, Matthias Schwab, Stephan Jaeger, J.T. Poston, Patrick Rodgers, Adam Hadwin, Emiliano Grillo, and Davis Riley. 
  • Any time we travel to one of the ten easiest courses on Tour, with a large plurality of short iron approaches, I will always attempt to identify the players who generate the most birdie looks. The players in this field who give themselves the most birdie chances inside 15 feet per round are Russell Henley, John Huh, Luke List, Davis Riley, Keegan Bradley, Brendan Steele, Austin Smotherman, Kevin Streelman, Trey Mullinax, and Chris Kirk. 
  • Conversely, birdies or better gained can turn moreso into a putting metric, but it is still valuable. Five of the last seven champions topped the entire field in birdie or better percentage. The players in this field who make the highest percentage of birdies are Sam Burns, Davis Riley, Emiliano Grillo, Russell Henley, Adam Svensson, Trey Mullinax, Stephan Jaeger, J.T. Poston, Scott Stallings, and Keegan Bradley. 
  • I tend to feel the question of “Can this player get to 20 under?” gets a bit overrated in handicapping and content, but I do find it worthwhile to look at players that consistently raise their baseline on easier scoring tests. These are generally the types of players that have a lot of upside with their putter. The best players in easy scoring conditions are Seamus Power, Sam Burns, Taylor Moore, Hark Hubbard, Harris English, Russell Henley, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Chris Kirk, Michael Thompson, and J.T. Poston. 
  • From an agronomy standpoint, the Country Club of Jackson features Bermuda-grass from head to toe. After spending some more time speaking with caddies, I still firmly believe that players care about and are affected by agronomy. When handicapping, the industry spends too much time looking at Bermuda vs. Bent vs. Poa splits, instead of diving into how players perform tee to green on Bermuda courses. Chipping out of Bermuda rough can literally require a different technique! I also want to see (this will require a much deeper dive that I have not allotted the time to yet) if there is anything to the player performance in certain climates. It’s still incredibly hot this time of year in Jackson. Sedgefield, East Lake, and TPC Southwind all feature very similar agronomy and climate. Former winner of this event, Cody Gribble, spoke about how he was comfortable here because he grew up in the South. The best players from tee to green on Bermuda-grass courses are Sam Burns, Russell Henley, Chris Kirk, Gary Woodland, Adam Hadwin, Seamus Power, Denny McCarthy, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Kevin Streelman, and Luke List. 

 

• Comp Courses/Course History 
  • In terms of the predictive nature of course history, the Country Club of Jackson ranks on the lower end of all PGA Tour courses. Of course there are players such as Peter Malnati and Denny McCarthy that seem to really love it here, but it’s also very common for players (Cameron Young, Cameron Champ, Sergio Garcia) to contend on their first appearance here. I wouldn’t really penalize anyone who has not played here before, or blindly plug someone in just because they have played well here. How a player putts is too much a part of the equation on this course for us to go overboard on past performance. Still, the best players in this field at the Country Club of Jackson have been William McGirt, C.T. Pan, Denny McCarthy, Sam Burns, Kevin Streelman, Luke List, J.T. Poston, Henrik Norlander, Sebastian Munoz, and Stewart Cink. 
  • I know the climate and agronomy is different, but Torrey Pines actually checks the most boxes from an architectural and strategy standpoint. The key difference is that Torrey is more challenging and less forgiving to shorter players, but the shaping of the holes, and strategy employed to conquer them is actually quite similar to Country Club of Jackson. The best players in this field at Torrey Pines have been Luke List, Michael Thompson, Keegan Bradley, Aaron Rai, Gary Woodland, Austin Smotherman, Harris English, Scott Stallings, and Robert Streb. 
  • Other longer courses that are not overly difficult include Corales Punta Cana, Caves Valley, Trinity Forest, and Vidanta Vallarta. I probably prefer Corales the most in terms of a driver heavy course that still yields a ton of birdies and allows shorter players to compete. The best players in this field at Corales have been Joel Dahmen, Mackenzie Hughes, Alex Smalley, Chad Ramey, Kramer Hickok, Nate Lashley, David Lipsky, Adam Long, Greyson Sigg, and Denny McCarthy. 

 

Model Inputs

• Off the Tee (7%)
  • Strokes Gained Off the Tee on Courses over 7,400 yards
• Approach (27%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (15%)
  • Long-term Proximity 100-125 yards (4%)
  • Long-term Proximity 125-150 yards (4%)
  • Long-term Proximity 200 yards plus (4%)
• Around the Green (0%)
• Putting (16%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Bermuda-grass (16%)
• Scoring Stats (40%)
  • Birdies or Better Gained (9%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring Conditions (8%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Bermuda-grass (8%)
  • Opportunities Gained (8%)
  • Par 5 Scoring (7%)
• Comp Courses/Course History 
  • Country Club of Jackson (4%)
  • Torrey Pines (3%)
  • Corales (3%)

 

Top 20 

1. Sam Burns
2. Russell Henley
3. Davis Riley
4. Gary Woodland
5. Scott Stallings
6. Chesson Hadley
7. Alex Smalley
8. Mark Hubbard
9. Emiliano Grillo
10. Keegan Bradley
11. Adam Hadwin
12. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
13. Austin Smotherman
14. Brendan Steele
15. Chris Kirk
16. Kevin Streelman
17. Adam Svensson
18. J.T. Poston
19. Stephan Jaeger
20. Trey Mullinax