Greetings, and welcome to a weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the Scramble with Rick, every Tuesdays and Fridays on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed. I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!
The Basics
- Course: The Renaissance Club
- Location: North Berwick, Scotland
- Designer: Tom Doak (2008)
- Length: Par 71; 7,293 yards
- Hazards: None
- Fairways: Fescue based*
- Rough: Fescue based*
- Greens: Fescue based*
*I’m going off an assumption based on the agronomy of similar courses in the area. I will update once the official GSCAA sheet comes out on Monday.
The Genesis Scottish Open is one of five tournaments that are part of the Rolex Series, making it one of the premier events on the DP World Tour. For the first time this year however, it will be co-sanctioned by the PGA Tour, thus providing FedEx Cup points as well. The Scottish Open has been played at a number of different courses over the years, but in 2019, it moved to the Renaissance Club. These have been our champions since moving to the Renaissance Club.
- 2021: Min Woo Lee (-18) over Matt Fitzpatrick, Thomas Detry (-18) (Playoff)
- 2020: Aaron Rai (-11) over Tommy Fleetwood (-11) (Playoff)
- 2019: Bernd Wiesberger (-22) over Lucas Herbert (-22) (Playoff)
The Renaissance Club was designed in 2008 by Tom Doak. The course sits on an old pine forest, and a massive amount of earth was moved to create a faux-links type feel. The Renaissance Club is a links course in its aesthetics, but not as much in its design quality. Like most links courses however, its primary defense is the wind. 2019 and 2021 saw minimal wind and winning scores of 22 and 18 under par, while 2020 experienced more blustery conditions. The course does feature deep pot bunkers, gorse and fescue, but wide fairways and expansive greens still allow players to score in calmer conditions.
The Renaissance Club is by no means a short course, tipping out to nearly 7,300 yards on the scorecard while still featuring five par threes. The Doak design is unique in the sense that the five par threes are complimented by four par fives. Two of the par threes are quite short (147 and 161 yards), and the other three all measure above 200 yards. Depending on the wind, at least three of the four par fives should be reachable. None of the par fives are true three shot holes, and they all measured between 560 and 600 yards. Six of the par fours measure above 445 yards, which is a fairly large number. The fifth hole is a drivable par four, and number four and 13 are both shorter par fours. Selecting proximity buckets on a course that we have no real data or accurate wind reports on is a futile effort, but I would still suppose that players will have their fare share of mid to long irons at the Renaissance Club. With six par fours over 445 yards, three par threes over 200 yards, and at least three reachable par fives, there is the potential for 13 out of the 18 approach shots to come from over 175 yards. The greens are also absolutely massive here as well. Hitting over 80% of greens at the Renaissance Club is commonplace. If there is wind like we saw in 2020, that number will decrease significantly, but for the most, this is still an extremely score-able course.
Ultimately, I will be looking to identify players that make loads of birdies and have shown the ability to heat up with the flat-stick, particularly on slower greens. Let’s run through the specific stats we should be looking for.
Stats
- Off the Tee
- Last year, the top-five players on the leaderboard finished 58th, 56th, 80th, 94th, and fifth in strokes gained off the tee. Matt Fitzpatrick made the playoff losing strokes off the tee, and Ian Poulter finished fourth losing strokes off the tee.
- In terms of driving accuracy, the top-five players on the leaderboard finished: 102nd, 113th, 92nd, 11th, and 73rd! Of the three players that made last year’s playoff, none of them finished inside the top-90 in driving accuracy. To be honest, I don’t believe that driving accuracy matters at all here. It’s obviously imperative to stay out of the tall grass, but the fairways are so wide here that there is definitely room for error.
- This brings us to the next crucial question: Is this a bomb and gauge course? Well, the top-five players on last year’s leaderboard finished: 26th, 34th, 63rd, 105th, and third in driving distance. If we scroll through the entire top-12, Fitzpatrick, Thomas Detry, Min Woo Lee, Lucas Herbert, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Johannas Veerman, Xander Schauffele, and Scottie Scheffler all feature above average distance. Every single one of those players averaged 300 yards off the tee. Of course, there will be our anomalies such as an Ian Poulter that putted the lights out, but I do believe that longer hitters posses an edge here. On the contrary, I do not believe accuracy matters here in the least bit. For this reason, the only off the tee metric that I will be looking at this week is driving distance. The longest players in this field off the tee over the past year have been Wyndham Clark, Jhonattan Vegas, Jon Rahm, Cameron Young, Min Woo Lee, Luke List, Callum Tarren, Kurt Kitayama, Justin Thomas, and Keith Mitchell.
- Approach
- The top-five players on last year’s leaderboard finished first, 26th, 28th, 44th, and 35th in strokes gained approach. Dean Burmester was second in approach and finished outside the top-35 on the leaderboard. Ultimately, I do not believe that players need to be super precise with their irons to find success at the Renaissance Club. At the time, none of Fitzpatrick, Lee, Poulter, Herbert, or Ryan Palmer were particularly elite iron players.
- As previously alluded to, these greens are absolutely massive, and generally if players are a little off with their irons, they should have the ability to make up for it with elite lag putting.
- Obviously, iron play is the most important stat on every course, but I’m actually a little below my baseline in my approach weighting this week. The Renaissance Club just feels more like a bomb and putt course.
- Around the Green
- The top-five players on last year’s leaderboard finished fourth, 107th, 73rd, 118th, and 34th in strokes gained around the green. Three of the top-five players in around the green last year failed to even make the cut. On a relatively easy golf course with huge greens, short game will certainly be de-emphasized. Honestly, I wasn’t really able to find much correlation between short game and success at the Renaissance Club whatsoever.
- I will say that this course does feature deep pot bunkers, so if there was any short game stat that deserves creedence, it would be sand saves. Still, keep in mind that the sand in Scotland is much difference from the sand that players are used to on the PGA Tour. The sand is a lot darker and more gravely in Scotland. Most of the good bunker players should be able to adapt, as this type of sand doesn’t necessarily require too much of a different technique. Bunker play isn’t a deal-breaker either. None of the top-five players on last year’s leaderboard ranked inside the top-50 in sand saves.
- Putting
- The top-five players on last year’s leaderboard finished 20th, 17th, third, sixth, and eighth in strokes gained putting, which begs the question, is this a putting contest? The short answer is yes. Without wind, I don’t believe the Renaissance Club does the best job of weeding out the best tee to green players from the weaker ones. This is a course with an incredibly high greens in regulation percentage, which should give elite putters a leg up.
- Like most in Scotland, these greens are a little bit on the slower side, so I really want to identify players that improve their baseline on moderate to slower greens. The best long-term putters on moderate to slower greens have been Matt Kuchar, Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick, Andrew Putnam, Marc Leishman, Michael Thompson, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Billy Horschel, Sam Burns, and Patrick Rodgers
- Also, any time we travel to a course with large greens, three-putt avoidance is always worth looking at. The top-five players on last year’s leaderboard finished 23rd, 30th, 46th, 38th, and 13th in three-putt avoidance. The best players in this field in three-putt avoidance over the last year have been Tyrrell Hatton, Cameron Smith, Xander Schauffele, Keegan Bradley, Justin Thomas, Jason Kokrak, Lucas Herbert, Alex Noren, Max Homa, and Marc Leishman.
- Scoring Stats
- As previously mentioned, how this tournament plays out is completely dependent on the wind. If we see conditions similar to last year, we are going to want to identify players that are comfortable going low and making birdies in bunches. Last year, over half of the holes played under par. The par five 16th played over a half stroke under par and gave up 19 eagles. The par five third hole played almost half a stroke under par, the par four fifth gave up 187 birdies, and the par five seventh and par five 10th both played over a quarter stroke under par. Only the 15th and the second, which are two really long par fours, gave up less than 40 birdies. The top players in birdies or better gained over the past year have been Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Smith, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Cameron Young, Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, Joaquin Niemann, Keegan Bradley, and Sam Burns.
- Now that we are returning to a course with four par fives, I will be looking to identify players that thrive on three shot holes. The top-five players on last year’s leaderboard finished 24th, 22nd, 25th, 43rd, and second in par five scoring. The best players in this field in par five scoring over the last year have been Patrick Cantlay, Scottie Scheffler, Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Smith, Max Homa, Sam Burns, Keith Mitchell, Jordan Spieth, Jhonattan Vegas, and Justin Thomas.
- I know many will be tempted to look at par three scoring because of the five par threes, but none of the top-five players on the leaderboard finished top-20 in par three scoring. I was able to find a much greater correlation with par five play.
- Also, as a bit of a hedge, I will be looking side by side at players who raise their baseline in easy scoring conditions versus players who have had success in windy conditions. What becomes more important will crystallize as we get a more accurate weather (something I will break down in-depth in the Wednesday article). Wind stats are pretty wonky to begin, and the weather in Scotland changes constantly, but my hope is to find players who have shown us that they can both shoot 20-under par and play well in tougher, windier conditions. The conditions could change day-to-day here, so those are the players I would feel the best about. Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Cameron Smith, Joaquin Niemann, Scottie Scheffler, Sungjae Im, Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, Sam Burns, and Patrick Cantlay all rank top-20 in this field in both strokes gained total in easy scoring conditions and strokes gained total in moderate to windy conditions.
- Comp Courses/Course History
- Does a bit of experience at the Renaissance Club matter? It doesn’t hurt, but Aaron Rai missed the cut in his only appearance here last year before he won, and Min Woo Lee finished 30th. I don’t find this to be an incredibly nuanced course. There is some undulation to the greens, but I would not be shocked if a player making their first appearance here contended.
- In terms of comp courses, it’s tough. I would say that our best option would be to look at Open Championship venues that did not get a lot of wind and played on the easier side. Royal St. George’s (last year) and Royal Liverpool are both solid examples of this.
- The best players in this field at Royal St. George’s have been Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth, Jon Rahm, Dylan Frittelli, Mackenzie Hughes, Scottie Scheffler, Robert MacIntyre, Viktor Hovland, and Corey Conners.
- The best players in this field at Royal Liverpool have been Rickie Fowler, Marc Leishman, Edoardo Molinari, Francesco Molinari, Stephen Gallacher, Keegan Bradley, Chris Kirk, Justin Rose, Chris Wood, and Brian Harman.
- Tom Doak also designed Memorial Park (host of the Houston Open), which does feature a lot undulation on and around the greens. Doak does tend to have many of the same staples throughout all of his work, especially in the way that he designs green-sites. The best players in this field at Memorial Park have been Hideki Matsuyama, Sam Burns, Jason Kokrak, Scottie Scheffler, Joel Dahmen, Francesco Molinari, Mackenzie Hughes, Viktor Hovland, Harold Varner III, and Michael Thompson.
- Looking at any other PGA Tour course feels like a stretch to me, as none of them are links-style at all, so I’ll stick with Royal St. George’s, Royal Liverpool, and Memorial Park as my only reference points.
Model Inputs
- Off the Tee (10%)
- Driving Distance (10%)
- Approach (20%)
- Strokes Gained Approach (20%)
- Around the Green (4%)
- Sand Saves (4%)
- Putting (20%)
- Strokes Gained Putting: Average to Slow Greens (14%)
- Three-putt Avoidance (6%)
- Scoring Stats (34%)
- Birdies or Better Gained (12%)
- Par 5 Scoring (8%)
- Strokes Gained Total: Moderate/Windy Conditions (7%)
- Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring Conditions (7%)
- Comp Courses/Course History (12%)
- Memorial Park (4%)
- Royal St. George’s (4%)
- Royal Liverpool (4%)
Top 20
- Justin Thomas
- Scottie Scheffler
- Cameron Smith
- Xander Schauffele
- Sam Burns
- Jon Rahm
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Patrick Cantlay
- Harold Varner III
- Jordan Spieth
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Will Zalatoris
- Max Homa
- Joaquin Niemann
- Mito Pereira
- Corey Conners
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Viktor Hovland
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Jhonattan Vegas
Most over-valued based on expected price: Viktor Hovland (18th), Collin Morikawa (23rd)
Most under-valued based on expected price: Harold Varner III (9th), Jhonattan Vegas (20th), Maverick McNealy (21st), Chris Kirk (24th), Alex Noren (25th)
