Greetings, and welcome to a brand new weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the Scramble with Rick, every Tuesdays and Fridays on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed. I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!
The Basics
- Course: TPC Craig Ranch
- Location: McKinney, Texas
- Designer: Tom Weiskopf (2004)
- Length: Par 72; 7,468 yards
- Hazards: Water comes into play on 13 holes
- Fairways: Cavalier Zoysia
- Rough: 2’5” inch Bermuda-grass rough
- Greens: Bent-grass measuring 6,778 square feet on average, running 11.5 on the stimp.
While it’s perfectly natural to look ahead just a week’s time from now to the PGA Championship, the second major’s opening act presents an interesting “challenge.” I use the word “challenge” in quotations marks for a reason that I will expand upon shortly, but I am of course referring to TPC Craig Ranch, the host of the AT & T Byron Nelson Classic. This tournament has been one of the longest standing tournaments on the PGA Tour, but this is only our second year with the Tom Weiskopf design as the host venue. Last year, K.H. Lee shot 25 under to defeat Sam Burns by three strokes.
As one can gather from the 25-under par winning score, TPC Craig Ranch was the third easiest course last year on the PGA Tour. It is important to keep in mind that the golf course was incredibly wet last year. Monday and Tuesday of tournament week saw a torrential downpour, and the course even got some rain once the tournament started. I haven’t looked at the weather yet for this week. I usually wait until at least Monday evening or Tuesday to make any grand assumptions about the weather (I’ve learned my lesson), but it is very much in play that we see a fairly different golf course year. Even in dryer conditions, I would imagine this course will still play on the easy side. Still, I would advise against living and dying too much with last years statistics. Last year was an outlier weather week, and I imagine many will blindly look at the stats from last year and forget that the course was soaking wet. Soft conditions are always a walk in the park for PGA Tour pros. It gives them maximum control over their golf ball. Firm and fast conditions are the only way that pros loose any semblance of that control. Soft and receptive greens turn into a track man contest, which is exactly what we saw last year.
With all of that being said, I am still utilizing the data from last year with the assumption that the course will play at least a little bit harder this time around. I don’t believe that drier conditions change a ton about the character of the course, but I would imagine that pros will have a more difficult time stopping their long irons on the greens, which should help protect par more so than last year.
TPC Craig Ranch bears a lot in common with what we saw two weeks ago in Mexico. It is fairly wide open off the tee with large greens. The biggest defense of this course is its sheer length. A whopping 34.5% of approach shots came from 200 yards plus. I would expect that number to be lower this year, as the fairways were extremely soft and there was little roll out. Three of the Par 3s measure over 215 yards, and even the short one that only measures 147 yards played as the seventh hardest hole on the course. The Par 3s played as the third, sixth, fifth, and seventh most difficult holes on the course last year.
This is contrasted with a fairly modest set of Par 4s. Yes, six of them measure over 450 yards on the scorecard, but in totality, they ranked as the second easiest set of Par 4s on the PGA Tour. The 16th hole, which measures 492 yards, and the 13th hole, which measures 512 yards are the two hardest holes on the course. Even some of the holes in 450 yardage range aren’t that much of a challenge.
The Par 5s are even more of a cakewalk. All four of them feature over a 40% birdie rate. The 18th and 12th hole play closer to a Par 4 than they do a Par 5, with a scoring average under 4.5. In total, they played as the seventh easiest set of Par 5s on the PGA Tour, and all are reachable in two.
What you see is what you get at TPC Craig Ranch. I have respect for Tom Weiskopf as a designer, but I would not say that this is some of his best work. Personally, I prefer his stuff in Arizona with Jay Morrish. Like many TPC courses, TPC Craig Ranch was designed for PGA Tour competition. There are some fun risk reward holes, but this is not the type of track that is really going to make pros uncomfortable. It has the 6th widest fairways to hit on Tour and the 10th easiest greens to hit on Tour. I’m excited to see how pros fare this year in (hopefully) drier conditions, but I would still imagine we see a winning score in the ballpark of 20-under par. Even if this course plays on the faster side, from a design standpoint, it is arguably the least penalizing TPC on the PGA Tour schedule.
Let’s dive into the stats.
Stats
- Off the Tee
- 15.3% of strokes gained at TPC Craig Ranch have come off the tee, which is right at Tour average.
- TPC Craig Ranch ranked 32nd out of 40 courses last year in strokes gained off the tee difficulty.
- TPC Craig Ranch features the sixth widest fairways on Tour, and driving accuracy here last year was 67.7% compared to the Tour average of 62%.
- TPC Craig Ranch ranked 26th out of 40 courses in missed fairway penalty, and 29th out of 40 courses in rough penalty. 2’5” inch Bermuda isn’t really enough to hold players’ attention.
- Despite this course being super easy off the tee, I did not find a strong correlation last year with driving distance. It’s only one year of data, but K.H. Lee was below average in driving distance. Players such as Troy Merritt, Daniel Berger, Jordan Spieth, Doc Redman, Seamus Power, Harris English, Satoshi Kodaira, Luke Donald, Matt Kuchar, Hank Lebioda and Brant Snedeker all finished in the Top-20 last year. Not exactly a murderer’s row of bombers. With that being said, distance should help on this course, and we still had longer players like Sam Burns, Charl Schwartzel, Scott Stallings, Patton Kizzire, Joseph Bramlett, and Jhonattan Vegas rise to the top of the leaderboard.
- Ultimately, I see no real reason to look at any off the tee stats this week. I have a small weight on distance just because this is a driver heavy course with very few forced layups or decisions off the tee. You are barking up the wrong tree if you are spending any time on accuracy.
- Approach
- 33.4% of strokes gained at TPC Craig Ranch have come on approach, which is slightly below Tour average.
- TPC Craig Ranch ranked 36th out of 40 courses last year in strokes gained approach difficulty.
- TPC Craig Ranch featured the 10th easiest greens to hit on the PGA Tour last year. Greens in regulation percentage checked in at a whopping 71% compared to the Tour average of 65.7%.
- 34.5% of approach shots came from above 200 yards, and every other proximity bucket was healthily below Tour average. Expect that number to decrease at least somewhat on a drier golf course.
- TPC Craig Ranch featured the seventh easiest approach shots under 150 yards, and the fourth easiest approach shots from over 150 yards. Yes, there will be a lot of long irons on this course, but the actual degree of difficulty on those shots is far from extreme. Again, this is track-man golf. I’m still looking a fair amount at long iron play just for the sheer number of times that players will have those clubs in their hands, but if you are below average in that category, it’s not a deal-breaker. It’s more so just a large advantage. The best long iron players over the past year have been Will Zalatoris, Ryan Palmer, Matthew Wolff, Austin Smotherman, Justin Thomas, Sebastian Munoz, Hideki Matsuyama, Cameron Champ, Adam Scott, and Kurt Kitayama.
- Around the Green
- 12.8% of strokes gained have at TPC Craig Ranch have come around the green, which is well below the Tour average of 14.5%.
- TPC Craig Ranch ranked 38th out of 40 courses last year in strokes gained around the green difficulty.
- TPC Craig Ranch had the second easiest up and down percentage from the fairway, the fourth easiest up and down percentage from the rough, and the ninth easiest up and down percentage from the bunkers.
- If a player is forced to rely on their short game here, it’s likely they are battling to make the cut. Any short game statistic is not relevant from a handicapping standpoint this week.
- Putting
- 38.5% strokes gained at TPC Craig Ranch have come putting, which is well above the Tour average of 35.7%. Yes, this is statistically what we would define as a putting contest. The only player in the Top-20 last year who lost strokes putting was Will Zalatoris.
- TPC Craig Ranch ranked 34th out of 40 courses last year in strokes gained putting difficulty. You need to make putts to have a chance here, but again, the degree of difficulty is low. TPC Craig Ranch was the eighth easiest course on Tour in putting inside five feet, the 14th easiest course on Tour in putting from five to fifteen feet, and the third easiest course on Tour in putting over 15 feet.
- These greens are fairly large, but they are not very undulating. You do not need to be a particularly elite lag putter here.
- I have a fairly heavy weight on Bent-grass putting. Not because putting is difficult here, but because you need to putt really well to have any shot of winning. The best long-term Bent-grass putters in this field have been Brandt Snedeker, Alex Noren, Mackenzie Hughes, Brendon Todd, Beau Hossler, Pat Perez, Jason Kokrak, Andrew Putnam, Ian Poulter, and Charles Howell III.
- Scoring Stats
- Looking at the top of the leaderboard, Sam Burns was first in Par 5 scoring last year and finished second in the tournament. Charl Schwartzel was second in Par 5 scoring and finished third. Daniel Berger was sixth in Par 5 scoring and finished sixth. K.H. Lee, who won, was eighth in Par 5 scoring. Bramlett, who finished seventh, was tied with Lee for eighth. Jordan Spieth and Jhonattan Vegas were 10th in Par 5 scoring, and they finished ninth in the tournament. Seven of the Top-10 players on the leaderboard finished in the Top-10 in Par 5 scoring. The best Par 5 scorers over the past year have been Scottie Scheffler, Seamus Power, Maverick McNealy, Sam Burns, Talor Gooch, Keith Mitchell, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Jhonattan Vegas, and Bubba Watson.
- Obviously, birdies or better gained needs no explanation. The players that make the most birdies relative to the field over the past year have been Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Sam Burns, Davis Riley, Maverick McNealy, Seamus Power, Hudson Swafford, Jhonattan Vegas, and Vincent Whaley.
- The Byron Nelson is the token event where we want to find players that improve their baseline on easier golf courses. The question we need to be asking ourselves is, do we think this player can get to 20 under par? Have we ever seen him get close? Is he the type of player that can catch fire with his flat-stick? Or, is he the type of player like Matt Fitzpatrick or Corey Conners, where his specific skill-set is better suited for more difficult scoring conditions? I have a hefty weight on long-term strokes gained total in easy scoring conditions, and the players who have fared best on easier golf courses have been Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Sam Burns, Seamus Power, Jhonattan Vegas, Joaquin Niemann, Talor Gooch, Xander Schauffele, Lanto Griffin, and Scottie Scheffler.
- Comp Courses/Course History
- I certainly think it helps to have played the course last year, but I would imagine we see different conditions this time around. TPC Craig Ranch is not overly nuanced or tricked up either, but the players who finished Top-10 here last year were K.H. Lee, Sam Burns, Daniel Berger, Patton Kizzire, Charl Schwartzel, Scott Stallings, Troy Merritt, Joseph Bramlett, Jordan Spieth, Seamus Power, Jhonattan Vegas, and Doc Redman.
- My favorite comp course to TPC Craig Ranch is TPC Deere Run. In fact, D.A. Weibring was a consultant for both courses. TPC Deere Run is wide open off the tee with Bent-grass greens. I would say the biggest difference is that there are not as many long iron approach on TPC Deere Run, and Kentucky rough is a lot different than Bermuda rough. Other than that, I think this is best we are going to do. It should not come as a surprise that Jordan Spieth, Jhonattan Vegas, Daniel Berger, Patton Kizzire, and Seamus Power have all fared well at both courses. The Top-10 players in this field at TPC Deere Run have been Jordan Spieth, Adam Schenk, Dylan Frittelli, Jhonattan Vegas, Morgan Hoffmann, Adam Hadwin, Seamus Power, Justin Thomas, Joaquin Niemann, and Charles Howell III.
- I looked a bit at TPC Scottsdale because of the Tom Weiskopf connection, but I am aware of the differences. TPC Scottsdale is certainly a more challenging course where there is actually a penalty for inaccuracy off the tee. Yet going through hole by hole, I can certainly the see the similarities in what Weiskopf was attempting to accomplish at both tracks. The Top-10 players in this field at TPC Scottsdale have been Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Scottie Scheffler, Matt Kuchar, Bubba Watson, Branden Grace, Alex Noren, and Martin Laird.
- Detroit Golf Club was the only other course I spent time. It features incredibly easy scoring conditions, very little penalty for inaccuracy off the tee, and Bent-grass greens. The Top-10 players in this field at Detroit Golf Club have been Joaquin Niemann, Nate Lashley, Kevin Kisner, Maverick McNealy, Brandon Hagy, Hideki Matsuyama, Doc Redman, Brian Stuard, Sepp Straka, and J.J. Spaun.
Model Inputs
- Off the Tee (6%)
- Driving Distance (6%)
- Approach (30%)
- Strokes Gained Approach (18%)
- Long-term Proximity 200 yards + (12%)
- Putting (18%)
- Strokes Gained Putting: Bent-grass (18%)
- Scoring Stats (30%)
- Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring Conditions (12%)
- Birdies or Better Gained (10%)
- Strokes Gained Par 5s (8%)
- Comp Courses/Course History (16%)
- TPC Craig Ranch (5%)
- TPC Deere Run (5%)
- TPC Scottsdale (3%)
- Detroit Golf Club (3%)
Top-20
- Justin Thomas
- Sam Burns
- Maverick McNealy
- Adam Scott
- Talor Gooch
- Xander Schauffele
- Scottie Scheffler
- Dustin Johnson
- Adam Hadwin
- Joaquin Niemann
- Seamus Power
- Keith Mitchell
- Jhonattan Vegas
- Hudson Swafford
- Alex Noren
- Patton Kizzire
- Lanto Griffin
- Jason Kokrak
- Sepp Straka
- Will Zalatoris
Most over-valued based on expected price: Will Zalatoris (20th), Hideki Matsuyama (22nd), Jordan Spieth (24th), Tommy Fleetwood (29th), Brooks Koepka (52nd), Jason Day (55th), Bubba Watson (62nd), Cameron Champ (69th)
Most under-valued based on expected price: Maverick McNealy (3rd), Adam Scott (4th), Talor Gooch (5th), Adam Hadwin (9th), Seamus Power (11th), Hudson Swafford (14th), Patton Kizzire (16th), Pat Perez (26th)
