By Andy Lack

Greetings, and welcome to a brand new weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the Scramble with Rick, every Tuesdays and Fridays on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed. I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!

The Basics 

• Course: TPC Deere Run
• Location: Silvis, Illinois
• Designer: D.A. Weibring (1999) with a PGA Tour renovation in 2016
• Length: Par 71; 7,268 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on 3 holes
• Fairways: Southshore Bent-grass measuring 41 yards wide on average
• Rough: Kentucky Blue-grass with Fine Fescue (4 inches)
• Greens: 5,500 square feet on average featuring L-93 Bent-grass, running 11.5 on the stimp

While I would be lying if I said that the John Deere Classic was one of the events that really got my juices flowing, these are the types of weeks that I tend to have the most success with. People generally get lazier with their approach, and in such a weak field, ownership tends to conglomerate around the names that are being touted. If you can stomach doing the legwork on such an uninspiring golf course and field, these are the weeks where the largest seem to formulate.

As far as the course goes, TPC Deere Run is the standard run of the mill birdie-fest, featuring extremely wide fairways and receptive Bent-grass greens. We’ve seen bombers such as Jhonattan Vegas, Patrick Rodgers, and Dylan Frittelli find just as much as success here as plotters such as Zach Johnson, Wesley Bryan, and Steve Stricker. The reason for this is that these types of courses don’t do the best job of separating the elite ball-strikers from the poor ball-strikers, and thus the emphasis falls more squarely on putting. Thunderstorms are prevalent this time of year, and the greens do get watered here, so expect a lush and receptive golf course that all types of players will be able to score on. 66% of TPC Deere Run’s holes historically play under par, and eight holes feature over a 20% birdie rate. Last year, it ranked as the seventh easiest course on the PGA Tour, and it has ranked inside the top-eight easiest courses on Tour each of the last five years.

In terms of the actual layout, TPC Deere Run features a pretty even distribution of par fours, with three measuring between 350 and 400 yards, five measuring between 420 and 460 yards, and three measuring over 475 yards. Last year, it also featured the second easiest set of par threes on the schedule, and the fourth easiest set of par fives on the schedule as well.

2018 champion, Michael Kim, summarized the challenge well, “Guys like Zach Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Steve Stricker, you know, guys that don’t necessarily bomb the ball, but with good wedge game and putting, they can do well out here. So kind of along that same mold. Greens are great. They’re soft, they’re rolling true, and they’re Bent greens, so you just got to hit your line.”

2017 champion, Bryson DeChambeau, echoed a similar sentiment, “Yeah, you’ve got to be hitting your wedges really close. If you can do that all week, you’ll be just fine. If you can makes pars on the tough par threes and hit it in the fairway, I think you have a very good chance of playing well here.”

D.A. Points was a little more cynical, “Again, for lack of a better term, it’s a putting contest and that’s why Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson win a lot because they make everything. I shoot under par every time I come here; it’s just not enough under par enough to see the weekend.” Points isn’t technically wrong. This tournament often does turn into a putting contest. Michael Kim came here in 2018 at 300/1 with incoming form of three missed cuts in a row, before winning because he gained 13.5 strokes putting. Let’s just say Kim would not have been able to do that at a Torrey Pines, Memorial, or Bay Hill.

Ultimately, there really isn’t a lot to the quote on quote challenge of TPC Deere Run. It features wide fairways, receptive greens, and the players that hits their wedges the best and makes the most putts generally win. On a week like this that features more volatility, I will primarily be looking for awesome wedge players that have the ability to spike with the flat-stick, and tend to significantly raise their baseline in easy scoring conditions. Let’s dive into the specific stats we should be looking for.

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • 17.7% of strokes gained at TPC Deere Run last year came off the tee, which is above the Tour average of 15.2%, but that number drops to 14.9% historically.
  • Last year, TPC Deere Run ranked 34th out of 40 courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty, and historically, it has ranked inside the top 10 easiest each out of the last five years.
  • Driving accuracy percentage at TPC Deere Run is 71.6% compared to the Tour average of 61.9%, which is a massive jump. It had the seventh easiest fairways to hit on the PGA Tour last year, and it routinely ranks close to the top in driving accuracy percentage. The 41-yard wide fairways were the 13th widest last year on the PGA Tour.
  • Last year, four out of the top 10 players on the leaderboard actually lost strokes off the tee, none of the top 10 players in strokes gained off the tee finished top 10 on the leaderboard. For context, six of the top 10 players in strokes gained putting finished in the top-10 of the tournament.
  • With all of this being said, TPC Deere Run did rank 13th out of 40 courses last year in missed fairway penalty, and each of the last five years it has ranked comfortably above Tour average in this category. This really has everything to do with the rough, as last year, TPC Deere Run ranked fourth out of 40 courses in rough penalty. Each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top-7 in average difference of score between drives that land in the rough and drives that land in the fairway.
  • Still, the fairways are generally easy to hit here, so I am not putting a ton of stock in driving accuracy or driving distance metrics. Most players are going to hit upwards of 70% of their fairways at TPC Deere Run. Even if you are not the most accurate driver in the world, there’s room for error here. Although it is a lot easier to score from the fairway, TPC Deere Run ranked 28th out of 40 courses last year in missed fairways that resulted in a penalty stroke, so it’s not as if there is a great deal of trouble at this course either.
  • Good drive percentage should help me weed out the players who are not necessarily elite off the tee, but consistently put themselves in a position to hit the green in regulation, which is essentially all that I’m looking for this week. The best players in good drive percentage over the last year have been Martin Laird, Ryan Armour, Brian Stuard, David Lipsky, Alex Smalley, Daniel Berger, J.J. Spaun, Chez Reavie, Brendon Todd, and Hayden Buckley. 

 

• Approach
  • 33.1% of strokes gained at TPC Deere Run have come on approach last year, which is below the Tour average of 34.8%. Historically, the number creeps up to 35.5%.
  • Greens in regulation percentage here is 71% compared to the Tour average of 65.5%. Last year, it had the eight easiest greens to hit on the PGA Tour, and historically, it has ranked inside the Top-10 in highest greens in regulation percentage.
  • Last year, TPC Deere Run ranked 31st out of 40 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty, and each of the last five years it has ranked comfortably easier than Tour average. It’s certainly possible to win here without elite iron play. In fact, Dylan Frittelli won here in 2019 losing 0.9 strokes on approach, but he made up for it by gaining 7.5 strokes putting. Frittelli is more of an outlier however, as he was the only player in the top-25 on the leaderboard that lost strokes on approach. The leaderboard behind him was still made up of rock solid iron players such as Russell Henley, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Lucas Glover. Ultimately, TPC Deere Run is far more of a second shot golf course than it is a point A to point B golf course, but poor iron play can still be made up for with elite putting.
  • The only proximity buckets that stand out to me at TPC Deere Run are 100-125 and 125-150, and neither make a sizable jump. With a fairly even distribution of short and long par threes, short, medium, and long par fours, and medium length par fives, there’s not one proximity bucket that is overly essential at TPC Deere Run. With that being said, if forced to choose, 100-150 yards would be the bucket to look at. Both anecdotally and statistically, TPC Deere Run is more of a wedge course than anything else. The best long term players are from 100-150 yards in this field are Ben Kohles, Wesley Bryan, Camilo Villegas, Satoshi Kodaira, Henrik Norlander, Max McGreevy, Rory Sabbatini, Scott Stallings, Chez Reavie, and Cameron Percy. 

 

• Around the Green
  • 11.6% of strokes gained at TPC Deere Run came around the green last year, which is healthily below the Tour average of 14.5%. Historically, that number jumps up to 13.2%, which still falls below Tour average.
  • Last year, TPC Deere Run ranked 17th out of 40 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty, which would technically make around the green play the hardest element of this course. In 2019, it ranked sixth out of 40 courses in around the green difficulty, and the three years prior, it ranked right around Tour average in around the green difficulty.
  • Last, TPC Deere Run ranked 14th out of 40 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty from the fairway, 19th in strokes gained around the green difficulty from the rough, and 28th in strokes gained around the green difficulty from the bunkers. At TPC Deere Run, I’d say that its far better to miss in a green side bunker than it is the green side rough.
  • Still, with one of the highest greens in regulation percentages on the PGA Tour, it’s hard for me to put a ton of stock into short game this week. Any player that is relying heavily on their short game this week is likely nowhere near the top of the leaderboard. Two of the top-five players on the leaderboard last year lost strokes around the green. In 2018, Michael Kim won here losing strokes around the green, and Bronson Burgoon, who finished runner-up, also lost strokes around the green.
  • Ultimately, I have a very small weight in around the green play, as it could play a role in helping players make the cut, but I do not see a ton of relevance in its value in determining a champion.

 

• Putting
  • 37.6% of strokes gained at TPC Deere Run came putting last year, which is healthily above the Tour average of 35.6%. Historically, that number drops to 36.4%, which still puts it above Tour average.
  • Last year, TPC Deere Run ranked 39th out of 40 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty. Each of the last five years it has ranked as one of the easiest putting courses on the PGA Tour. These greens are extremely pure, not overly fast, and feature very little undulation. Players have spoken openly about how wonderful they are to putt on.
  • Last year, TPC Deere Run ranked 34th out of 40 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty inside five feet, 38th out of 40 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and 36th out of 40 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty greater than 15 feet.
  • Still, a familiarity on Bent-grass is certainly preferred, and while plenty of poor putters have won here, I will still be looking to identify players that are at least capable of spiking with the flat-stick. The best long-term Bent-grass putters in this field have been Brendon Todd, Brandt Snedeker, Charles Howell III, Zach Johnson, Johnson Wagner, Austin Cook, Cameron Davis, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Jim Knous, and Aaron Baddeley. 
  • As previously mentioned, TPC Deere Run does not do the best job of separating the elite tee to green players from the average ones, which tends to yield a greater emphasis on putting. Yes, the John Deere Classic is exactly the type of putting contest that Jon Rahm was complaining about. Every single one of the top-17 players on the leaderboard last year gained strokes putting, and six of the top-seven finishers gained over three strokes putting. Michael Kim, an objectively bad golfer, won this tournament by eight strokes because he gained 13.5 strokes putting.

 

• Scoring Stats 
  • TPC Deere Run is a golf course where players will need to go very low to keep up, so birdies or better gained will be a huge stat for me this week. Last year, Nine of the top-10 players in birdies or better gained also finished top-10 on the leaderboard. Lucas Glover led the field in birdies or better gained and won the tournament. Kevin Na was second and finished runner-up. The best players in birdies or better gained over the last year have been Davis Riley, Maverick McNealy, Scott Brown, Lanto Griffin, Chad Ramey, Adam Hadwin, Peter Malnati, Satoshi Kodaira, Webb Simpson, and Callum Tarren. 
  • Opportunities gained is another stat I always look at on birdie-fest courses with a high plurality of short iron approaches. Opportunities gained measures the amount of birdie looks inside 15 feet that a player generates per round. Identifying players that give themselves the most chances will be absolutely crucial this week. The best players in this field in opportunities gained over the last year have been Jason Dufner, Chad Ramey, John Huh, Austin Smotherman, Lanto Griffin, Daniel Berger, Vaughn Taylor, Kurt Kitayama, Webb Simpson, and Maverick McNealy. 

 

• Comp Courses/Course History 
  • Course history at TPC Deere Run is a little tricky. There are essentially a few players that always seem to perform here regardless of incoming form (Ryan Moore, Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker), but this is also not Augusta National that we are talking about. There isn’t a ton of tricks or nuance to this course and we’ve seen players on countless occasions contend on their first appearance here. Sean O’Hair and Dylan Frittelli won on debut, and Sam Ryder finished runner-up on debut. It’s generally a pretty easy course to correct yourself on over time as well. We’ve seen players struggle here in multiple appearances, and then suddenly find a hot putter and climb to the top of the leaderboard. Still, TPC Deere Run is a course that has been on the schedule for a long time, and certain players have developed a strong comfortability here. The best players in this field at TPC Deere Run have been Johnson Wagner, Zach Johnson, Scott Brown, Ryan Moore, Adam Schenk, Chris Stroud, Dylan Frittelli, Adam Hadwin, Lucas Glover, and Daniel Berger. 
  • There are three Bent-grass late summer birdie-fests: TPC Deere Run, Detroit Golf Club (host of the Rocket Mortgage Classic), and TPC Twin Cities (host of the 3M Open) that share a ton of similarities. All three courses feature very easy scoring conditions and similar agronomy. I probably prefer Detroit Golf Club the most, as TPC Twin Cities is littered with water hazards which typically creates more tee to green variance, but all three courses are essentially asking players to do the same thing: Knock your wedges close and catch a hot putter.
  • The best players in this field at Detroit Golf Club have been Nate Lashley, Maverick McNealy, Brandon Hagy, Brian Stuard, Doc Redman, J.J. Spaun, Roger Sloan, Lanto Griffin, Jonathan Byrd, and Matt Wallace. 
  • The best players in this field at TPC Twin Cities have been Adam Hadwin, Bo Hoag, Charles Howell III, Brian Stuard, Brice Garnett, Brandt Snedeker, Chez Reavie, Adam Long, Roger Sloan, and Cameron Davis. 
  • There many birdie-fest courses on Tour that could also be compared to TPC Deere Run. Any course with wide open fairways, Bent-grass greens, and straightforward green-sites would fall into this category. The Summit Club, host of last year’s CJ Cup, and TPC Craig Ranch, host of the AT & T Byron Nelson, both fall into this category. Even TPC River Highlands shares some commonalities with TPC Deere Run. TPC River Highlands is a more nuanced, challenging course, both it still features similar agronomy, lush rough, smaller greens, and wider than average fairways. Both courses provide options off the tee, and while the fairways are not difficult to hit at either course, the penalty for missing in the Kentucky Blue-grass rough is severe. Both plotters and bombers can find success on both courses. The best players in this field at TPC River Highlands have been Kevin Streelman, Jason Day, Ryan Moore, Chez Reavie, Tommy Gainey, Charley Hoffman, Kevin Tway, Webb Simpson, Chris Stroud, and Daniel Berger. 
  • While Detroit Golf Club, TPC Twin Cities, and TPC River Highlands are the only courses I am specifically inputting into my model, I still want to identify players that raise their baseline in easier scoring conditions. There are certain types of players, a Matt Fitzpatrick, Will Zalatoris, or Jon Rahm for example, that will be the first to tell you that they are more comfortable in difficult scoring conditions. However, not all players are built that way, and many actually prefer easier conditions and possess an aggressive style of play yields a lot of birdies. This style of play is rewarded on a forgiving course like TPC Deere Run, whereas a more penal course would force a player to deploy a different strategy. The best players in this field in easy scoring conditions have been Daniel Berger, Lanto Griffin, Maverick McNealy, Doug Ghim, Webb Simpson, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Charles Howell III, Davis Riley, Taylor Moore, and Peter Malnati. 

 

Model Inputs 

• Off the Tee (10%)
  • Good Drives Gained (5%)
  • Strokes Gained Off the Tee (5%)
• Approach (28%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (18%)
  • Long-term Proximity 100-125 yards (4%)
  • Long-term Proximity 125-150 yards (6%)
• Around the Green (5%)
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green (5%)
• Putting (15%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Bent-grass (15%)
• Scoring Stats (10%)
  • Birdies or Better Gained (12%)
  • Opportunities Gained (8%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring Conditions (10%)
• Comp Courses/Course History (12%)
  • TPC Deere Run (5%)
  • Detroit Golf Club (3%)
  • TPC Twin Cities (2%)
  • TPC River Highlands (2%)

 

Top 20 

1. Daniel Berger
2. Webb Simpson
3. Adam Hadwin
4. Lanto Griffin
5. Charles Howell III
6. Mark Hubbard
7. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
8. Maverick McNealy
9. Davis Riley
10. Cameron Davis
11. Austin Smotherman
12. Vaughn Taylor
13. J.J. Spaun
14. Adam Svensson
15. Lucas Glover
16. Steve Stricker
17. Wesley Bryan
18. Adam Schenk
19. Scott Stallings
20. Taylor Pendrith

 

Most over-valued based on price: Brendon Todd (32nd), Denny McCarthy (33rd), Jason Day (63rd), J.T. Poston (65th), Anirban Lahiri (75th), Kevin Streelman (82nd)

Most under-valued based on price: Lanto Griffin (4th), Charles Howell III (5th), Mark Hubbard (6th), Austin Smotherman (11th), Vaughn Taylor (12th), Wesley Bryan (17th)