Greetings, and welcome to a brand new weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the Scramble with Rick, every Tuesdays and Fridays on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed. I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in! The Basics
- Course: TPC Louisiana
- Location: Avondale, Louisiana
- Designer: Pete Dye (2004)
- Length: Par 72; 7,425 yards
- Hazards: 5 individual water hazards
- Fairways: TifSport Bermuda-grass
- Rough: TifSport Bermuda-grass (1’75”)
- Greens: MiniVerde Bermuda-grass over-seeded with Poa Trivialis and Velvet Bent-grass, running 12 on the stimp and measuring 5,225 yards on average
TPC Louisiana was designed in 2004 by Pete Dye, who we have grown very accustomed to on the PGA Tour lately. The Dye design has been the host course of the Zurich Classic since, although prior to 2017, this event was a stroke play event. We do have some data from individual stroke play rounds, but it’s coming from over five years ago. The course has since been lengthened by over 200 yards. The extra length didn’t really change much of the character of the course, but it’s certainly worth mentioning. As far as the new format goes, the field consists of 80 two-man teams. The format is better ball in rounds one and three, and alternate shot in rounds two and four. The top 33 teams plus ties will advance to the weekend. I still created a model, but this is the ultimate “go with your gut” week. If you thought trying to predict the Match Play was difficult, you’re in store for some fun in New Orleans. I essentially looked at a number of long-term stats based on course fit that will hopefully help me identify teams that might be undervalued in DraftKings. We already know that the winner will likely be one of the heavy hitting teams (Cameron Smith & Marc Leishman, Viktor Hovland & Collin Morikawa, Scottie Scheffler & Ryan Palmer, Patrick Cantlay & Xander Schauffele, Billy Horschel & Sam Burns), as there is such a wide gap between the teams with two elite players and the bottom of the board. Many of the players in the field this week barely even have status on the PGA Tour, or are years past their prime. With all of this being said, it’s a fun event, and I would have a hard time arguing with a strategy that involves simply just betting or rostering who you want to root for. If you are crazy enough to think data could matter this week like myself, here are my thoughts on TPC Louisiana: Key Stats
- Off the Tee
- Between 2015 and 2016, TPC Louisiana ranked 23rd out of 37 courses on average in strokes gained off the tee difficulty.
- Driving accuracy at TPC Louisiana ranks consistently above Tour average. Between 2015 and 2016, it ranked 33rd out of 37 courses on average in fairway percentage.
- TPC Louisiana also ranked 31st out of 37 in missed fairway penalty, and 26th out of 37 in average difference of score between drives in the fairway and drives in the rough.
- While it’s hard to put too much stock into driving distance given the amount of shorter players who have experienced success on this course, TPC Louisiana is definitively a driver heavy course.
- TPC Louisiana is unlike other Dye designs such as Harbour Town, Austin Country Club, and TPC Sawgrass that force players to club down off the tee. Players can wail away with little concern for the short Bermuda rough. TPC Louisiana is one of the least penal courses off the tee on the entire PGA Tour schedule, which still gives an inherent advantage to the longer hitters.
- The longest players off the tee in this field are Ryan Brehm, Joseph Bramlett, Brandon Hagy, Peter Uihlein, Trey Mullinax, Wyndham Clark, Lucas Herbert, Curtis Thompson, Will Zalatoris, & Callum Tarren.
- Approach
- TPC Louisiana is also one of the easiest approach courses on the PGA Tour. Between 2015 and 2016, it ranked 33rd out of 38 course on average in strokes gained approach difficulty.
- Greens in regulation percentage at TPC Louisiana has been 69% compared to the Tour average of 65.6%. It has historically had the 10th easiest greens to hit on the PGA Tour.
- TPC Louisiana ranked 31st out of 37 courses in difficulty of approach shots under 150 yards, and 33rd out of 37 courses in difficulty of approach shots from above 150 yards.
- 29.92% of approach shots at TPC Louisiana have come from 200 yards plus, which is significantly above Tour average. The only other proximity bucket that is above Tour average is from 100-125 yards (14%).
- TPC Louisiana is definitively a long iron and wedge course. Four Par 4s at TPC Louisiana are above 450 yards, and all four of the Par 5s measure between 548 and 585 yards. All of the Par 5s are reachable for most players with a long iron second shot. Every single one of the Par 3s measure above 200 yards. Despite the fact that players will have a long iron in their hands at TPC Louisiana often, the actual degree of difficulty of these shots are very low, as there are very few green-side hazards or undulation to the putting surfaces.
- Five Par 4s also measure under 403 yards, so players will also have their fare share of short iron approach shots as well. The high dispersion of shots over 200 yards, plus the absence of medium length Par 4s and Par 3s has me leaning towards identifying strong long iron players. If they are also deadly with a wedge in their hands, that is certainly a bonus.
- The best long iron players in this field are Will Zalatoris, Ryan Palmer, Tyrrell Hatton, Viktor Hovland, Joseph Bramlett, Danny Lee, Sungjae Im, Collin Morikawa, Charley Hoffman, and Garrick Higgo.
- Around the Green
- TPC Louisiana ranked 29th out of 37 courses on average between 2015 and 2016 in strokes gained around the green difficulty. It has ranked 33rd out of 37 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty from the fairway, 33rd out of 37 courses in strokes gained difficulty from the rough, and 21st out of 37 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty from the bunkers. Ultimately, players can get away with a spotty around the green game at TPC Louisiana.
- Putting
- TPC Louisiana ranked 32nd out of 37 courses on average between 2015 and 2016 in strokes gained putting difficulty. It has ranked 33rd out of 37 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and 32nd out of 37 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty over 15 feet.
- TPC Louisiana is essentially set in a marsh. It’s a relatively flat golf course, and it’s greens feature little undulation or slope. Putting is certainly very important in team play, but these greens are extremely benign.
- I have a relatively heavy weight on putting this week, as I do on any course with a high greens in regulation percentage that yields low scoring. Similar to events such as the Byron Nelson and American Express, the Zurich Classic could certainly fall into the equation of a “putting contest.” TPC Louisiana is not penal off the tee or on approach, so it is not a course that does a great job of separating the elite ball-strikers. For this reason, we have seen elite putters such as Cameron Smith, Billy Horschel, and Kevin Kisner experience such great success here.
- As is always the case with over-seeded Bermuda greens, I will be looking at a weighted combination of putting metrics from other courses (TPC Scottsdale, TPC San Antonio, PGA West, Harbour Town, Innisbrook, and TPC Sawgrass) with similar agronomy. The best putters on this surface have been Cameron Smith, Kevin Kisner, Tyrrell Hatton, Martin Trainer, Sepp Straka, Sam Burns, Beau Hossler, Billy Horschel, Chesson Hadley, & Lucas Herbert.
- Scoring Stats
- As I’m sure you can probably hypothesize if you are this far into the article, birdies are the name of the game at TPC Louisiana. Over 50% of the holes at this golf course have over a 15% birdie rate. All four of the Par 5s have over a 30% birdie rate, and the Par 5 7th hole has a 46% birdie rate!
- For this reason, I will be looking at players who thrive in easy scoring conditions and can make birdies in bunches, as well as elite Par 5 scorers.
- The players that make the most birdies in this field are Cameron Smith, Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, Sam Burns, Maverick McNealy, Danny Lee, Harold Varner III, Shane Lowry, and Davis Riley.
- The players that do the best job of taking advantage of Par 5s are Patrick Cantlay, Cameron Smith, Scottie Scheffler, Seamus Power, Sam Burns, Maverick McNealy, Talor Gooch, Keith Mitchell, and Sungjae Im.
- Course History/Comp Courses
- I’ve already alluded to the fact that I’m abstaining from looking at other shorter, positional Pete Dye courses such as Austin Country Club, Harbour Town, TPC River Highlands and TPC Sawgrass. TPC Louisiana is far more driver heavy.
- Instead, I prefer TPC Scottsdale and TPC San Antonio as better comps. Both are more driver heavy courses with similar agronomy. By the way, TPC Louisiana’s superintendent, Brandon Reese, formerly worked at both TPC Scottsdale and TPC San Antonio. TPC Scottsdale and TPC San Antonio are both slightly more penal and challenging than TPC Louisiana, but not overwhelmingly so.
- The best players at TPC San Antonio have been Brandt Snedeker, Charley Hoffman, Chris Kirk, Ryan Palmer, Lucas Glover, Martin Laird, Brendon Todd, and Billy Horschel.
- The best players at TPC Scottsdale have been Xander Schauffele, Alex Noren, Scottie Scheffler, Bubba Watson, Branden Grace, Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, and J.T. Poston.
- The Stadium Course at PGA West might be the best comp. It’s another Pete Dye course with similar agronomy that features even closer scoring conditions to TPC Louisiana. The best players at the PGA West Stadium Course have been Patrick Cantlay, Adam Hadwin, Sam Burns, Tom Hoge, Sepp Straka, Lee Hodges, Scottie Scheffler, and Bo Hoag.
- Of course, we can also look at the players who have performed well at TPC Louisiana when it was a stroke play event, although the course has since been lengthened. The best players who have gained the most strokes at TPC Louisiana have been Justin Rose, Cameron Tringale, Jason Day, Seung-Yul Noh, Chesson Hadley, Chris Kirk, Robert Streb, and Patton Kizzire.
Model Inputs
- Off the Tee (12%)
- SG: OTT (7%)
- Driving Distance (5%)
- Approach (32%)
- SG: APP (19%)
- Proximity 200 yards plus (10%)
- Proximity 100-125 yards (3%)
- Putting (17%)
- Recent SG: Putting (5%)
- Weighted combination of SG: Putting at TPC Scottsdale, TPC San Antonio, PGA West, Harbour Town, Innisbrook, & TPC Sawgrass (12%)
- Scoring Stats (20%)
- Par 5 Scoring (8%)
- Birdies or Better Gained (12%)
- Course History/Comp Courses (14%)
- TPC Louisiana (5%)
- TPC San Antonio (3%)
- TPC Scottsdale (3%)
- PGA West Stadium Course (3%)
Model Top 20
- Cameron Smith & Marc Leishman
- Billy Horschel & Sam Burns
- Xander Schauffele & Patrick Cantlay
- Talor Gooch & Max Homa
- Viktor Hovland & Collin Morikawa
- Scottie Scheffler & Ryan Palmer
- Bubba Watson & Harold Varner
- Will Zalatoris & Davis Riley
- Mito Pereira & Joaquin Niemann
- Keegan Bradley & Brendan Steele
- Shane Lowry & Ian Poulter
- Maverick McNealy & Joseph Bramlett
- Sahith Theegala & Beau Hossler
- Adam Hadwin & Adam Svensson
- Tom Hoge & Paul Barjon
- Danny Willett & Tyrrell Hatton
- Brendon Todd & Chris Kirk
- Denny McCarthy & Ben Kohles
- Henrik Norlander & Alex Noren
- Tommy Fleetwood & Sergio Garcia
Most over-valued based on expected price: Tommy Fleetwood & Sergio Garcia (20th), Christiaan Bezuidenhout & Charl Schwartzel (58th), Sungjae Im & Byeong Hun An (59th), Kevin Kisner & Scott Brown (61st) Most under-valued based on expected price: Maverick McNealy & Joseph Bramlett (12th), Sahith Theegala & Beau Hossler (13th), Denny McCarthy & Ben Kohles (18th), Troy Merritt & Robert Streb (23rd), Matthew NeSmith & Taylor Moore (24th)
