Greetings, and welcome to a brand new weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the Scramble with Rick, every Tuesdays and Fridays on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed. I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!
The Basics
- Course: TPC Potomac at Avenal Farm
- Location: Potomac, Maryland
- Designer: Ed Ault, Tom Clark, & Ed Sneed (1986) with a Stephen Wenzloff & Jim Hardy re-design (2006)
- Length: Par 70 (7,107 yards)
- Hazards: Water comes into play on four holes
- Fairways: Bent-grass
- Rough: Fescue with Kentucky Blue-grass measuring 3’0” inches
- Greens: A1/A4 Bent-grass, running 13 on the stimpmeter and measuring 4,265 square feet on average
Under normal circumstances, the Wells Fargo Championship is held every year at Quail Hollow Country Club in Charlotte, North Carolina. Yet since that venue is hosting the 2022 President’s Cup, we return to a somewhat familiar venue, TPC Potomac. The Ault, Clark, and Sneed design originally opened in 1986, and it hosted a PGA Tour event from 1987 to 2006. In 2007, TPC Potomac underwent a significant renovation, and went on to host multiple Korn Ferry Tour events and the PGA Tour’s Quicken Loans National in 2017 and 2018. Here’s a list of PGA Tour and Korn Ferry Tour events that TPC Potomac has hosted in the last decade.
- 2018 Quicken Loans: Francesco Molinari (-21) over Ryan Armour (-13)
- 2017 Quicken Loans: Kyle Stanley (-7) over Charles Howell (-7) (Playoff)
- 2013 Mid-Atlantic Championship (Korn Ferry Tour): Michael Putnam (-7) over Chesson Hadley
- 2012 Neediest Kids Championship presented by Under Armour: David Lingmerth (-8) over Casey Wittenburg (-7)
Before we dig into the character of the course, let’s run through some of the changes that were made in 2007. Essentially, PGA Tour pros hated the course, openly criticizing its poor design. TPC Potomac was also plagued by years of flooding and drainage problems. There were also a bunch of turf issues that affected the greens, which were formerly Poa before the switch to Bent during the renovation. Players were so frustrating that they stopped coming to the event, and it quickly became one of the lower status tournaments.
In 2007, tournament organizer finally had enough, and $32 million dollars was spent on a renovation project. Some of the highlights include:
- The sixth hole, which was originally modeled after Augusta’s 13th, was completely changed to a straightaway long Par 4.
- The Par 3 ninth hole, which Greg Norman once said should be blown up with dynamite, was completely re-built with a new green up on a hill.
- The old 10th and 11th holes got combined into a new 10th hole, a long Par 5 playing around a restored creek.
- The old 12th is now the 11th, and the old Par 13th, which players really seemed to despise, was eliminated and replaced by a new uphill Par 3 12th and a short Par 13th.
- The 7th and 16th greens were renovated to flatten contours and provide additional hole locations.
- Collection areas were added around 3, 4, and 18.
- The fifth and sixth fairways were widened.
- The 13th green was flattened in the front.
The reviews were generally positive following the renovation, and the PGA Tour finally returned to TPC Potomac in 2017 for the Quicken Loans. As one can see from the seven-under Par winning score, TPC Potomac is a stern test. It played as the hardest non-major on the PGA Tour that year, and featured a cut of +5. 2018 saw far lower scores, as that area of Maryland experienced heavy rainfall in the weeks leading up to the tournament. If I had to make a guess, the 2021 tournament will play somewhere in between the two. A winning score of eight to 15 under sounds about right. Even in 2018 under softer turf conditions, Molinari recorded one of the most dominating performances of the decade to shoot 21 under. The cut was +2, and second place finished at 13-under par.
In a nutshell, TPC Potomac is challenging due to its narrow fairways, small greens, difficult bunkering, and 3’5” Kentucky blue-grass rough. It is not a long course by any means, measuring just 7,107 yards on the scorecard, but eight of the 12 Par fours measure over 440 yards. The course only features two Par 5s, and one of them measures 619 yards. Across 2017 and 2018, they ranked as the 3rd most difficult set of Par 5s on the PGA Tour.
TPC Potomac is a true ball-striking test through and through (insert Kyle Stanley joke). When Stanley won in 2017, he led the field in greens in regulation percentage and strokes gained off the tee, and lost strokes putting to the field. He was 29th in driving distance but third in driving accuracy and sixth in proximity to the hole. TPC Potomac is not a course that can be over-powered, but moreso one that really rewards accuracy off the tee and precise middle iron play. Here’s a few player quotes that help illustrate my point:
- David Lingmerth: “Hitting fairways. That’s one of the big keys out here, it’s a course where the rough is very penalizing, very gnarly. As fast and firm as these greens are, you really need to stay in the fairway to have a chance at making birdies. It’s a course that is visually straightforward. It’s easy to pick targets. It’s just a great golf course. You don’t necessarily have to be too aggressive here.
- Michael Putnam: “If you get aggressive on this golf course, it’s really easy to make bogeys. There are penalties everywhere. I was aiming towards the middle of the greens having 20 footers for birdie.”
- Hudson Swafford: “You’ve got to be patient out here, you can get on the bogey train very quickly. You can’t try to overpower it. It’s like a U.S. Open venue. The greens are getting firmer and faster, and rough’s not getting shorter.”
Players continually discussing patience as a virtue here really stood out to me. TPC Potomac is certainly a plodder’s golf course, and it should not come as a surprise that incredibly precise drivers such as Francesco Molinari, Ryan Armour, Andrew Landry, Brian Gay, Kyle Stanley, Charles Howell III, and Martin Laird have experience such great success here.
Let’s dig into the stats.
- Off the Tee
- Across 2017 and 2018, 21.6% of strokes gained have come off the tee at TPC Potomac, which is well above the Tour average of 15.2%
- TPC Potomac ranked 16th out of 37 courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty.
- Average fairway width is 30.1, which is slightly below Tour average, and driving accuracy percentage also falls slightly below Tour average.
- Kyle Stanley discussed the importance of hitting the fairway at TPC Potomac: “If you get a little bit out of position, it just creates problems for yourself. Being in the fairway off the tee was something I knew was going to be big this week.”
- The statistics also back up Stanley’s thought process. TPC Potomac ranked 2nd out of 37 courses in missed fairway penalty.
- TPC Potomac also ranked 11th out of 37 courses in average difference of score from drives in the rough vs. drives in the fairway.
- TPC Potomac ranked 2nd out of 37 courses in average difference of score from non-rough locations drives vs. drives in the fairway. This essentially confirms the importance of driving accuracy. The rough is a problem here, but incredibly wild drives that land in the trees of water hazards will spell disaster.
- TPC Potomac ranked 6th out of 37 courses in percentage of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke.
- Add all this up, and nearly one fourth of my entire model will be focused on finding on the most accurate drivers of the ball off the tee. I found that a helpful way to do this was look at the players who have gained the most strokes off the tee on courses with difficult fairways to hit. The best drivers of the ball on courses with difficult fairways to hit have been Sergio Garcia, Corey Conners, Trey Mullinax, Rory McIlroy, Keith Mitchell, Jhonattan Vegas, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Luke List, Joseph Bramlett, and Tony Finau.
- Another way to examine driving accuracy is through good drive percentage, which measures the amount of tee shots that result in a green in regulation. The Top-10 players in good drive percentage have been Martin Laird, Russell Knox, Corey Conners, Brian Stuard, Matthew NeSmith, Ryan Armour, Alex Smalley, Joel Dahmen, Paul Casey, and Jim Herman.
- Approach
- Across 2017 and 2018, 35.5% of strokes gained have come on approach at TPC Potomac, which is above the Tour average of 34.7%.
- TPC Potomac has ranked 19th out of 37 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty. It had the ninth hardest greens to hit on average.
- 20.9% of approach shots at TPC Potomac come from 150-175 yards, which is right around Tour average.
- 23.9% of approach shots at TPC Potomac come from 175-200 yards, which is well above Tour average.
- 22.8% of approach shots at TPC Potomac come from over 200 yards, which is right around Tour average.
- Over two thirds of all approach shots come from over 150 yards. TPC Potomac is definitely a middle to long iron course, which makes sense considering that eight of the 12 Par 4s measure between 440 and 490 yards.
- The best long-term middle iron to long iron players in this field have been Paul Casey, Lucas Glover, Keegan Bradley, Martin Laird, Matthew NeSmith, Max Homa, Tony Finau, Russell Knox, Austin Smotherman, and Doug Ghim.
- Ultimately, I have a standard weight on approach. I would not call this a pure second shot golf course, as the emphasis is almost as much on the first shot as it is on the second at TPC Potomac.
- Around the Green
- Across 2017 and 2018, 13.7% of strokes gained at TPC Potomac have come around the green, which is below the Tour average of 14.5%.
- TPC Potomac has ranked 10th out of 37 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty.
- It ranked 29th out of 37 courses on average in up and down percentage from the fairway, 8th out of 37 courses in up and down percentage from the rough, and 3rd out of 37 courses in up and down percentage from the sand.
- Ultimately, short game certainly matters at TPC Potomac. Players will miss greens frequently here, and this course possesses some of the most challenging bunkers on Tour. The best long-term bunker players in this field have been Matt Kuchar, Sergio Garcia, Michael Thompson, Seung-Yul Noh, Brian Harman, Kevin Tway, Sung Kang, Luke Donald, Joshua Creel, and Matt Fitzpatrick.
- Putting
- Across 2017 and 2018, 29.0% of strokes gained at TPC Potomac have come putting, which is significantly below the Tour average of 35.7%. In 2017, only 26.8% of strokes gained came putting, which is one of the most significant differences I have seen. Any course that Kyle Stanley can win at is not going place a large emphasis on putting.
- TPC Potomac has ranked 26th out 37 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty.
- It ranked below average in difficulty from putting inside five feet, from five to fifteen feet, and from fifteen feet plus. Ultimately, Bent-grass greens are known to be extremely pure. TPC Potomac’s greens are on the smaller size, and do not feature much undulation. It’s an extremely challenging course from tee to green, but one of the easier tracks to putt on.
- I only have a small emphasis on Bent-grass putting this week. The best long-term Bent-grass putters in this field have been Mackenzie Hughes, Beau Hossler, Pat Perez, Johnson Wagner, Abraham Ancer, Andrew Putnam, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Reed, and Webb Simpson.
- Scoring Stats
- Anytime we travel to a course with more difficult scoring conditions, bogey avoidance is on my radar. In 2018, the top 23 players gained in bogey avoidance to the field. Molinari ranked first in bogey avoidance, and fourth-place finisher Abraham Ancer ranked second. Molinari was clear of Ancer by a healthy margin. His ability to mitigate disaster on a course with a lot of bogey holes proved to be critical.
- In 2018, eight of the Top-10 in bogey avoidance finished in the Top-20 of the tournament.
- 2017 told a similar story. 15 of the top 16 finishers gained to the field in bogey avoidance. First place finisher Kyle Stanley ranked second in bogey avoidance, and second place finisher, Charles Howell III, ranked third.
- The players in this field who have been the best at avoiding bogeys have been Matt Fitzpatrick, Mito Pereira, Seamus Power, Ryan Armour, Matt Kuchar, Sergio Garcia, Denny McCarthy, Mark Hubbard, Paul Casey, and Troy Merritt.
- Comp Courses/Course History
- TPC Potomac is a fairly unique in the sense that it is a short, Bent-grass course that places a heavy emphasis on driving accuracy. The best way for me to describe TPC Potomac would be a much more challenging version of TPC River Highlands. The best players at TPC River Highlands have been Paul Casey, Brian Harman, Kevin Streelman, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Brendan Steele, Abraham Ancer, Patrick Reed, Marc Leishman, and Sergio Garcia.
- There are other Bermuda courses such as Sedgefield and Innisbrook that place a heavy emphasis on driving accuracy and mid-iron play, but far different turf conditions and agronomy keep me from deeming their inclusion in my model necessary.
- Colonial is a short, positional Bent-grass course that certainly makes some sense as well. The best players at Colonial have been Tony Finau, Brian Harman, Matt Kuchar, Webb Simpson, Corey Conners, Danny Lee, Sergio Garcia, Jonas Blixt, Charley Hoffman, and Patrick Reed.
- Of course, there will be some players in this field that played the Quicken Loans in 2017 and 2018. The best players at TPC Potomac across those two years have been Francesco Molinari, Sung Kang, Ryan Armour, Abraham Ancer, Rickie Fowler, Marc Leishman, Beau Hossler, Ben Martin, Keegan Bradley, and Chesson Hadley.
Model Inputs
- Off the Tee (24%)
- Strokes Gained Off the Tee (8%)
- Strokes Gained Off the Tee on Courses with Difficult Fairways to Hit (8%)
- Good Drives Gained (8%)
- Approach (32%)
- Strokes Gained Approach (15%)
- Proximity 150-175 (5%)
- Proximity 175-200 (7%)
- Proximity 200 yards plus (5%)
- Around the Green (13%)
- Strokes Gained Around the Green (6%)
- Sand Saves (7%)
- Putting (10%)
- Strokes Gained Putting: Bent-grass (10%)
- Scoring Stats (10%)
- Bogey Avoidance (10%)
- Comp Courses/Course History (11%)
- TPC Potomac (5%)
- TPC River Highlands (3%)
- Colonial (3%)
Model Top 20
- Rory McIlroy
- Martin Laird
- Paul Casey
- Mito Pereira
- Corey Conners
- Abraham Ancer
- Ryan Armour
- Tony Finau
- Luke List
- Sepp Straka
- Keith Mitchell
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Russell Henley
- Marc Leishman
- C.T. Pan
- Russell Knox
- Seamus Power
- Brian Harman
- Doug Ghim
Most over-valued based on expected price: Gary Woodland (22nd), Webb Simpson (33rd), Max Homa (41st), Si Woo Kim (44th), Jason Day (62nd), Rickie Fowler (63rd), Francesco Molinari (81st), and Patrick Reed (91st).
Most under-valued based on expected price: Martin Laird (2nd), Mito Pereira (4th), Ryan Armour (7th), Luke List (9th), Keith Mitchell (11th), C.T. Pan (16), Doug Ghim (20th), and Lucas Glover (21st).
