By Andy Lack

Greetings, and welcome to a brand new weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the Scramble with Rick, every Tuesdays and Fridays on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed. I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!

The Basics 

• Course: TPC River Highlands
• Location: Cromwell, CT
• Designer: Pete Dye (1982) with a 2016 PGA Tour renovation
• Length: Par 70; 6,814 yards
• Hazards: Water comes in to play on five holes
• Fairways: Bent-grass with Poa Annua
• Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass with Fescue (4 inches)
• Greens: 5,000 square foot greens, with Bent-grass and Poa, running 12 on the stimp

Despite the anti-climactic scheduling spot of having to follow the U.S. Open, the Travelers Championship is a tournament that always seems to deliver. Much of that has to do with the engaging atmosphere, and the way the tournament takes care of its players, but the golf course deserves some credit as well. Last year, TPC River Highlands was the shortest course on the PGA Tour, and yet it still played right around average in terms of overall scoring average. A score of only 13 under par was required for Harris English to claim victory over Kramer Hickok in a thrilling playoff. TPC River Highlands has the shortest set of par fours and par fives on the PGA Tour, and yet its par fours still play right around Tour average in terms of difficulty, and its par fives were actually as the eighth most difficult on the PGA Tour last year. Despite its less than imposing length, TPC River Highlands has very little trouble protecting par. Let’s dig into why that is.

TPC River Highlands is a very strange course to model out. Basically all styles of play can succeed here. We’ve seen extremely short hitters such as Chez Reavie, Kevin Streelman, Ken Duke, Russell Knox, and Kramer Hickok all have a ton of success here. We’ve also seen Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, and Marc Leishman combine for five wins here as well. One year, the longest hitter on Tour, Bubba Watson, was in a playoff with one of the shortest hitters on Tour, Corey Pavin. This speaks to how unique of a golf course TPC River Highlands is. On paper, the Pete Dye design looks like the type of course that should yield a winner score of 25 under par every year, and yet the half of that is often all it takes to claim victory.

There are a couple reasons for this, but ultimately, Pete Dye’s architecture just does a really impressive job of standing up to modern technology. TPC River Highlands features a great deal of visual deception, and tournament organizers consistently tuck pins and do an excellent job of setting up the golf course in general. This area of the Northeast often sees some rainfall in the weeks leading up to the tournament, and the thick Kentucky Bluegrass rough is generally lush and sticky. The greens here are also some of the smallest on the PGA Tour, and while not overly undulating, the surrounding green-side areas make getting up and down a real challenge.

In terms of what it takes to succeed at TPC River Highlands, there are many paths a player can take. Chez Reavie, Kevin Streelman, Ken Duke, and Freddie Jacobson all ranked inside the top-15 driving accuracy en route to victory, but Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson have won here ranking outside of the top-50 in that same statistic. We could say that TPC River Highlands is a wedge course, with a large plurality of approach shots coming between 125 and 175 yards. That’s partially true, and yet the degree of difficulty on approach shots at TPC River Highlands is not overly difficult. We could call it a short game course because there is a great deal of challenge around the greens, we are still talking about a course with a greens in regulation percentage of 65%. It’s not as if players are missing greens left and right here, and we can’t really call this tournament a putting contest either.

Considering all of this, my model is fairly balanced this week. I’m essentially trying to identify players who possess above average accuracy off the tee, are strong from 125-175 yards, have an above average short game, and also have a nice history of success on shorter, positional golf courses. Jordan Spieth discussed how TPC River Highlands forces players to hit different shots. Chez Reavie shared a similar sentiment, “You can shape it both ways off the tee; hit every club in your bag from longer irons to shorter irons. It’s just a test of all your shots. That’s something I like. I’m a shot maker. I like to work it both ways. I’ve always loved the layout since the first time I came here. Just the way the holes are shaped you can shape shots and think around the greens. It’s a great challenge and something I really enjoy.”

Any golf course that Bubba Watson and Jordan Spieth have had success at certainly requires some creativity and imagination. You can hit driver on every hole at TPC River Highlands, or never hit driver at all. You can hit a ton of draws on this golf course, or work your way around here with a fade. It’s not a track-man style golf course. You have to go out there and hit the shots. Let’s dive into the stats we need to be looking at.

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • 18.5% of strokes gained at TPC River Highlands have come off the tee, which is healthily above the Tour average of 15.2%.
  • TPC River Highlands ranked 13th out of 40 courses last year in strokes gained off the tee difficulty. It has historically ranked in the top half of strokes gained off the tee difficulty each of the last five years.
  • TPC River Highlands featured the seventh widest fairways on the PGA Tour last year, but the penalty for missing them is severe. TPC River Highlands ranked ninth out of 40 courses in missed fairway penalty. This is mainly because of the thick rough. It ranked 11th out of 40 courses in difference of average strokes from the fairway versus the rough. It also ranked sixth out of 40 courses in fraction of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke, and it’s not like this course is littered with water.
  • It’s a strange course off the tee, because it’s not particularly difficult to hit fairways, especially considering the fact that it’s so short that most players do not even need to hit drivers. Driving accuracy percentage is comfortably above Tour average and there is not some massive correlation between hitting a ton of fairways and finishing in the top-five or top-10, but the penalty for missing is great. We’ve seen players such as Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson keep the ball in play off the tee and still hit it long enough to find themselves with wedges out of the rough. Players can miss the fairway here and still succeed, but they better be hitting short irons out of that rough. For this reason, I think it’s a really solid week to look at good drive percentage, which measures the amount of drives that result in a green in regulation. The best players in good drive percentage over the last year have been Martin Laird, Mito Pereira, Matthew NeSmith, Russell Knox, Brian Stuard, Aaron Rai, Sungjae Im, David Lipsky, Brendan Steele, and Alex Smalley. 
  • I will also be looking at strokes gained off the tee on shorter courses. There are a lot of different ways to attack TPC River Highlands off the tee, and I wanted to identify players that tend to dominate off the tee on shorter tracks. That could be by hitting a ton of fairways or by hitting a ton of drivers. Either works for me, but I don’t see a whole lot of value in looking at off the tee metrics from a course like Torrey Pines or Bay Hill where players are forced to hit driver. I want to see how players do off the tee on shorter courses that present options. The best long-term players off the courses measuring under 7,200 yards have been Rory McIlroy, Cameron Champ, Sungjae Im, Tony Finau, Brooks Koepka, Patrick Cantlay, Cameron Davis, Jason Kokrak, Keith Mitchell, and Joel Dahmen. 

 

• Approach
  • 30.1% of strokes gained at TPC River Highlands have come on approach, which is healthily below the Tour average of 34.8%. Kramer Hickok, Brian Harman, Brice Garnett, and Beau Hossler all finished in the top-10 last year losing strokes on approach, so elite iron play is not a pre-requisite here. Harris English won only gaining 1.5 strokes on approach, Hickok made the playoff losing strokes on approach. Marc Leishman finished third gaining just 0.2 strokes on approach, and Harman and Garnett both finished fifth losing 1.9 and 3.1 strokes on approach, respectively.
  • TPC River Highlands ranked 19th out 40 courses last year in strokes gained approach difficulty, and has historically ranked right around Tour average in this statistic. It historically has ranked right around Tour average in greens in regulation percentage as well.
  • 19.7% of approach shots last year came from 125-150 yards, which is above the Tour average of 17%. A whopping 27.5% of approach shots came from 150-175 yards, which is well above the Tour average of 20.3%. All other proximity buckets are either right around Tour average, or below Tour average. With almost 50% of approach shots coming from between 125-175 yards, this is really the bucket that we want to be looking at. The best long-term players from 125-175 yards have been Justin Thomas, Russell Henley, Lee Hodges, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Russell Knox, Lucas Glover, Tony Finau, Emiliano Grillo, Henrik Norlander, and Sam Ryder. 
  • Here’s a quote from Bubba Watson, “First hole is going to be a wedge; second hole, wedge; third hole wedge; these are the approach shots. Then the next hole, 8, 9, or wedge, next hole 6 to 5 iron, next hole is a 3 iron going for it in two, next hole is a wedge, next hole is an 8 iron, next hole is a wedge, next hole is a wedge, next hole is a wedge, or if you drive the green you can putt, next hole is a 9 or 8, 17 is a wedge, and 18 is a wedge. So when you look at that, why would I not want to play here if I’m hitting that many wedges? It doesn’t matter if I’m in the rough or not, those are the clubs I’m hitting.”

 

• Around the Green
  • 13.6% of strokes gained at TPC River Highlands have come around the green, which is just slightly below the Tour average of 14.5%. That number does jump to 15.4% when looking at TPC River Highlands historically.
  • It ranked 10th out of 40 courses last year in strokes gained around the green difficulty, and historically It has ranked inside the Top 10 courses in around the green difficulty every single year. 
  • TPC River Highlands also ranked sixth out of 40 courses in up and down percentage from the fairway, and historically it has always ranked inside the top-six. It ranked first in 2017 and 2018, and second in 2019 and 2020. There’s something about the short grass here around the greens that pros seem to really struggle with.
  • It ranked 13th out of 40 courses in up and down percentage from the rough, and historically it has ranked in the top-10 nearly every single year in up and down percentage from the rough.
  • TPC River Highlands ranked 15th out of 40 courses in up and down percentage from the bunkers, and historically it has ranked more difficult than Tour average in this category every single year.
  • Ultimately, despite an average to above average greens in regulation percentage, a solid short game is still required at TPC River Highlands, and the degree of difficulty of green-side shots here is amongst the hardest on the PGA Tour. The best around the green players over the last year have been Rory Sabbatini, William McGirt, Danny Willett, Harold Varner III, Joaquin Niemann, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Matthias Schwab, Si Woo Kim, and Sungjae Im. 

 

• Putting 
  • 37.9% of strokes gained at TPC River Highlands have come putting, which is just slightly above the Tour average of 35.6%. The historical average drops down to 35.1%, which is basically at Tour average.
  • TPC River Highlands ranked 20th out of 40 courses last year in strokes gained putting difficulty, and historically, it has ranked right around Tour average in strokes gained putting difficulty.
  • It always ranks right around Tour average in putting difficulty inside five feet, slightly harder than Tour average in putting from five to 15 feet, and once again, right around Tour average in putting outside of 15 feet.
  • Ultimately, this is a moderately challenging course from tee to green, which still places an emphasis on putting. The top-20 on last year’s leaderboard all gained strokes putting, and the top-five all gained over four strokes putting. 2020 and 2019 told a similar story.
  • The Poa/Bent blend that we see at TPC River Highlands is certainly different than West Coast Poa, but many of the players that tend to putt well at Riviera and Pebble Beach (Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Bubba Watson) also seem to putt well here. I looked at a combination of Bent and Poa stats this week, essentially taking Bermuda out of the equation. The best long term Bent/Poa putters in this field have been Jason Kokrak, Troy Merritt, Patrick Cantlay, Rory McIlroy, Harris English, Mackenzie Hughes, Brendon Todd, Brandt Snedeker, Zach Johnson, and Marc Leishman. 

 

• Scoring Stats 
  • TPC River Highlands is neither a pure birdie fest, nor a grind it out course either. For this reason, I will refrain from looking at stats such as birdies or better percentage, bogey avoidance, strokes gained total in difficult scoring conditions, or strokes gained total in easy scoring conditions.
  • Instead, I will turn my attention to opportunities gained because of all the scoring clubs that players will have here. Opportunities gained measure the amount of birdie looks inside 15 feet that a player gives oneself per round. The best players in this field in opportunities gained over the last year have been Justin Thomas, Tom Hoge, Rory McIlroy, Russell Henley, Luke List, Aaron Wise, Xander Schauffele, Mito Pereira, Scottie Scheffler, and Keegan Bradley. 

 

• Course History/Comp Courses 
  • There is certainly some nuance to TPC River Highlands, and the same players seem to perform here year after year. Out of all the regular courses on the PGA Tour schedule, TPC River Highlands has the seventh most predictive course history, behind only Augusta National, Bay Hill, Colonial, Harbor Town, TPC Scottsdale, and Waialae. The best players in this field at TPC River Highlands have been Brian Harman, Kevin Streelman, Jason Day, Brendan Steele, Rory McIlroy, Marc Leishman, Patrick Cantlay, Chez Reavie, Brooks Koepka, and Charley Hoffman. 
  • There are a lot of great comp courses that we could look at this week, but the ones I feel most strongly about are TPC Potomac, Sedgefield, Harbor Town, and Colonial.
  • TPC Potomac is definitely a harder golf course than TPC River Highlands, but I like that both courses have a severe penalty for missing the fairway due to lush Kentucky Blue-grass rough. Neither course is overly long, and both courses are in the same part of the country with similar agronomy and aesthetics. The best players in this field at TPC Potomac have been Keegan Bradley, Charles Howell III, Rickie Fowler, Rory McIlroy, Stephan Jaeger, Anirban Lahiri, Brian Harman, Andrew Landry, Ryan Palmer, and Sung Kang. 
  • While Sedgefield is a Bermuda course, I still like that there is a large emphasis on positioning off the tee and short iron play, and it should not come as a surprise to see the same players pop up at both venues. The best players in this field at Sedgefield have been Webb Simpson, Kevin Kisner, Jim Herman, Sungjae Im, Si Woo Kim, Denny McCarthy, Rory Sabbatini, Russell Henley, Brandt Snedeker, and Zach Johnson. 
  • Harbor Town is another Pete Dye course where positioning off the tee is essential. Harbor Town is a bit more of a placement course than TPC River Highlands, and I do think that players can get a little more aggressive at the latter, but in terms of the sight lines, nuance, and visual deception, there’s a lot we should still be able to draw on. The best players in this field at Harbor Town have been Patrick Cantlay, Webb Simpson, J.T. Poston, Jordan Spieth, Joaquin Niemann, Jason Kokrak, Jason Day, Cameron Davis, Rory Sabbatini, and Joel Dahmen. 
  • I like Colonial for similar reasons. Both courses feature lush rough and similar agronomy. Yet specifically what I find most enticing about Colonial is that it’s another course that gives players options off the tee. You can win at Colonial hitting a ton of fairways, or you can win at Colonial playing more aggressively, hitting more drivers, and attempting to the cut the corners on doglegs, ala Sam Burns and Jason Kokrak. TPC River Highlands and Colonial are both shorter courses that invite both strategies and allow both to succeed. The best players in this field at Colonial have been Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau, Harris English, Brian Harman, Webb Simpson, Brooks Koepka, Kevin Kisner, Danny Lee, Jonas Blixt, and Davis Riley. 
  • There are a bunch of other strong options we can draw from such as Waialae, Sea Island, TPC Sawgrass, and Austin Country Club. Just to find a way to be able to get more weight down on some of these secondary options, I took a pretty heavy look at strokes gained total on all courses measuring over under 7,200 yards. The best long-term players on shorter courses have been Patrick Cantlay, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Webb Simpson, Seamus Power, Cameron Davis, Russell Henley, Scottie Scheffler, Si Woo Kim, and Harris English. 

 

Model Inputs 

• Off the Tee (18%)
  • Strokes Gained Off the Tee on Courses Under 7,200 (10%)
  • Good Drives Gained (8%)
• Approach (27%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (15%)
  • Long-term Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)
  • Long-term Proximity 150-175 yards (7%)
• Around the Green (10%)
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green (10%)
• Putting (14%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting (Bent/Poa) (14%)
• Scoring Stats 
  • Opportunities Gained (8%)
• Comp Courses/Course History (23%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Courses Under 7,200 (8%)
  • TPC River Highlands (7%)
  • TPC Potomac (2%)
  • Harbour Town (2%)
  • Colonial (2%)
  • Sedgefield (2%)

 

Top 20 

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Justin Thomas
3. Xander Schauffele
4. Tony Finau
5. Patrick Cantlay
6. Joaquin Niemann
7. Sam Burns
8. Russell Henley
9. Scottie Scheffler
10. Webb Simpson
11. Jordan Spieth
12. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
13. Brian Harman
14. Sungjae Im
15. Mito Pereira
16. Harold Varner III
17. C.T. Pan
18. Cameron Davis
19. Tom Hoge
20. Keegan Bradley

 

Most over-valued based on expected price: Will Zalatoris (26th), Tommy Fleetwood (33rd), Davis Riley (61st), Brooks Koepka (64th), Kevin Kisner (65th), Keith Mitchell (70th)

Most under-valued based on expected price: Russell Henley (8th), Christiaan Bezuidenhout (12th), C.T. Pan (17th), Aaron Rai (23rd), Brian Stuard (24th), Tyler Duncan (30th)

Best of luck this week – AL