By Andy Lack

Greetings, and welcome to a weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the betting preview with Rick on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed. I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!

The Basics 

• Course: TPC Scottsdale
• Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
• Designer: Jay Morrish and Tom Weiskopf (1986) with a Weiskopf re-design in 2014
• Length: Par 71; 7,261 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on 6 holes
• Fairways: Bermuda-grass with perennial rye-grass and fine fescue
• Rough: Bermuda-grass with perennial rye-grass and fine fescue measuring 2.5 inches on average
• Greens: TifEagles Bermuda-grass with Poa Trivialis/Perennial Rye-grass measuring 7,069 square feet on average

 

Already one of the most fun events on the PGA Tour schedule, the Waste Management Phoenix Open is stepping up their game this year. Formerly known as the Phoenix Open and held annually at Phoenix Country Club, this event has been in existence in 1939. In 1987, the tournament moved to its current home at TPC Scottsdale, so we tons of data at the Weiskopf/Morrish design. This year, the WM Phoenix Open has been granted elevated status, which essentially just means that nearly all of the best players in the world will be making the trip to downtown Phoenix and competing for a $20 million dollar purse. Even before the idea of elevated events, the WM Phoenix Open’s field was seemingly improving with each coming year. In 2023, the field of 132 players will be headlined by Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Max Homa, Will Zalatoris, Viktor Hovland, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sungjae Im, Cameron Young, Sam Burns, and Hideki Matsuyama, amongst others. Let’s dive into the basics of the golf course.

Measuring just a hair over 7,200 yards on the scorecard, TPC Scottsdale actually plays far shorter than it suggests due to the altitude. The Weiskopf/Morris design plays at an approximate elevation of 1,530 feet above sea level, which we will touch on a bit more soon. Weiskopf did some re-design work in 2014, providing the course with a little more pushback, and the winning score has been between 15 and 19 under par since then. Last year, TPC Scottsdale ranked 20th out of 38 courses in scoring difficulty, and every single year, it generally plays middle of the pack in terms of scoring difficulty.

TPC Scottsdale is a course that generally plays more difficult as the week goes on. It sits in the middle of a canyon, and the more sunlight it gets, the more it’s going to bake out and increase the firmness of the fairways and greens as the week goes on. This explains why this tournament generally features easy scoring conditions on Thursday and Friday, and then we see inexplicable ejections all throughout the weekend. Ranking fifth out of 38 courses in penalty strokes per round, there is some legitimate trouble on this course and there are multiple holes that can yield big numbers. I’m not a huge fan of TPC courses, but I do believe that they serve a purpose on the PGA Tour. Architecturally, they feel a bit gimmicky to me, and there’s a couple design templates that just get copied over and over again. Yet as far as TPC courses go, TPC Scottsdale nails it. I think for the purpose it serves, TPC Scottsdale is an incredible golf course for viewing professional golf, and I would even endorse a Ryder or a President’s Cup here. There are some really fun risk reward holes that actually involve strategy, and unlike Torrey Pines, this golf course is not simply about homogenous execution. There are some legitimate shot values and decisions that players will have to make down the stretch. I actually think the drivable par four 17th is a fantastic golf hole. It’s a really strong template for a drivable par four. I know people think I’m tough on a lot of these courses, but TPC Scottsdale has my full endorsement!

Looking at the players who have had success here, ball-striking is the easiest through-line. Coming off back to back weeks on Poa, I’m sure players will welcome a change to Bermuda, as TPC Scottsdale features some of the easiest greens to putt on on Tour. I don’t think its a coincidence that non-elite putters such as Kyle Stanley and Hideki Matsuyama have found success here. In another strong contrast to what we saw last week at Pebble Beach, I do believe that what players do off the tee at this course is of great relevance, and we have seen elite drivers of the ball (Brooks, Xander, Finau, Woodland, Hideki, Bubba) consistently rise to the top of the leaderboard. That’s what cool about TPC Scottsdale. We are going to see elite ball-strikers who typically play well at major championships find success here, but there’s also room for players such as Webb Simpson and Chez Reavie, who have also been able to make their way around the Morrish/Weiskopf design with ease.

The greens here are rather large, measuring 7,100 square feet on average, which is double what we saw at Pebble Beach last week. We are back to Bermuda-grass this week, but these greens are over-seeded with Velvet Bent-grass and Poa Trivialis. They have been over-seeded differently in the past. In 2021, there was no Velvet Bent-grass present, but they kept the Poa Trivialis and Rye-grass. The addition of Bent-grass simply makes the greens run smoother. The over-seed is not all that dissimilar from what we saw a few weeks ago at the American Express, or what we will see at courses such as Innisbrook and TPC Sawgrass. It’s not a traditional Bermuda, as these greens feature less grains and almost feel smoother like a Bent-grass. How much this truly matters in the grand scheme of things may not be much, but I thought it was worth mentioning. In the whole, these greens are much easier to figure out than what we saw at Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach over the last two weeks. In general, I won’t be spending a ton of time on putting metrics this week to begin with. TPC Scottsdale falls far closer to shot-makers and ball-strikers course than it does a putting contest.

The path to victory here usually comes through a well-rounded approach. If we look at the average strokes gained of top-10 finishers, TPC Scottsdale features a far more balanced skill-set. Off the tee accounts for nearly 70% of the strokes gained of putting and approach, which is actually extremely high, and last year, over 22% of strokes gained came via off the tee. This is a far cry from what we see at many PGA Tour courses, which often come down to approach and putting. The average driving distance at TPC Scottsdale is 294 yards, a far cry from the Tour average of 282 yards, so players can really take advantage of this course off the tee, which explains the continued success of players such as Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm, Gary Woodland, etc. at this event. While TPC Scottsdale is not a course like Torrey Pines where players who cannot drive the ball long and straight are at a massive disadvantage, I do believe that TPC Scottsdale is just as much of a first shot golf course as it is a second. Unless your name Jordan Spieth and you are capable of magic, the one thing that you can absolutely cannot do on this golf course is drive the ball in the desert. Every single player in the top-10 last year gained over a stroke to the field in both good drive percentage and greens in regulation percentage. Again, this is not something we see every week, and falls in stark contrast to last week’s breakdown of Pebble Beach. Let’s dive into the stats.

 

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • As I’ve already alluded to, 22.7% of strokes gained at TPC Scottsdale last year came via off the tee, which is healthily above the Tour average of 15.2%. That number dips historically to 18.9%, which is still well above Tour average.
  • Last year, TPC Scottsdale ranked 31st out of 38 courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty, and it usually ranks in the middle of the pack to slightly easier than Tour average in terms of off the tee difficulty.
  • Due to the altitude, you can hit some absolute bombs at TPC Scottsdale. Last year, the Weiskopf/Morrish design featured the longest average driving distance on par fours and par fives on the PGA Tour.
  • Since TPC Scottsdale is such a driver heavy course with standard sized wide fairways, it actually features one of the lowest driving accuracy percentages on the PGA Tour. Again, this is not necessarily because it features outrageously narrow fairways ala Torrey Pines (TPC Scottsdale ranks 13th out of 38 courses in fairway width), it’s moreso due to the fact that players hit driver on this course so often, with little regards to playing from the rough.
  • Last year, TPC Scottsdale ranked 13th out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalty, and it historically ranks harder than Tour average in this category.
  • It ranked 30th out of 38 courses in rough penalty, but third out of 38 courses in fraction of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke. I know I sound like a broken record at this point, but it is absolutely essential at TPC Scottsdale to keep the ball in play off the tee and avoid the desert at all costs. While length certainly helps on any course that allows players to hit driver so often, avoiding the desert is far more important at this course than just pure length.
  • I have a fairly hefty weight this week on off the tee play in general, and I believe this is an excellent course to hone in on good drive percentage, which measures the amount of fairways hit plus drives that result in a green in regulation. Essentially, this should help me identify not necessarily the most accurate drivers of the ball in the world, but rather those who most consistently put themselves in position off the tee to hit the green in regulation. The best players in this field in good drive percentage are Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau, Aaron Rai, Russell Henley, Hayden Buckley, Scottie Scheffler, Corey Conners, Tom Kim, Xander Schauffele, and Matthew NeSmith. 

 

• Approach 
  • Last year, 29.8% of approach shots at TPC Scottsdale came on approach, which is actually well below the Tour average of 34.7%. That number falls a little bit further to 29.3% historically. This is not to say that iron play is not important here, it more so simply represents the fact that unlike many other PGA Tour courses, off the tee is of great relevance as well, which simply cuts into the strokes gained formula.
  • Last year, TPC Scottsdale ranked 20th out of 38 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty, and it generally ranks middle of the pack historically in this category.
  • Last year, TPC Scottsdale ranked 24th out of 38 courses in greens in regulation percentage, and historically, it ranks middle of the pack to slightly easier than Tour average in this category historically.
  • Last week, we discussed how Pebble Beach is a wedge fest, and the prior week, how Torrey Pines is all about long iron play. TPC Scottsdale falls right in the middle. Last year, the proximity buckets that ranked above Tour average were 100-125 yards, 125-150 yards, and 150-175 yards. 175-200 yards was right around Tour average as well, but none of these were jumping off the page. If we look at historic proximity ranges, TPC Scottsdale is fairly well balanced, with a somewhat even distribution between wedge approaches, middle iron approaches, and long iron approaches. Players will have to a little bit of everything at TPC Scottsdale, which is my reasoning for weighting overall approach play far more heavily than focusing on any specific proximity range. Still, if I was to highlight any range, I would turn my attention to middle iron play, specifically around the 150 yard marker. Last year, 21.7% of approach shots came from 150-175 yards, which is above the Tour average of 20.3%. That number does jump all the way up to 24.4% historically. 125-150 and 175-200 yards rank right around Tour average to slightly above Tour average, and are likely the only other two buckets worth looking at. The best long-term middle iron players in this field are Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Tom Kim, Justin Lower, Lee Hodges, Hideki Matsuyama, Matthew NeSmith, Scottie Scheffler, John Huh, and Jon Rahm. 

 

• Around the Green 
  • Last year, 16.8% of strokes gained at TPC Scottsdale came around the green, which is well above the Tour average of 14.5%. That number falls historically to 14.8%, which is still a touch above Tour average.
  • Last year, TPC Scottsdale ranked eighth out of 38 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty, and it generally ranks harder than Tour average in this category if we increase the sample size. I would say that historically, although it changes from year to year, that around the green is generally the hardest of the four major statistical skill-sets to gain strokes in.
  • Last year, TPC Scottsdale ranked fifth out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the fairway, 23rd out of 28 courses in around the green difficulty from the rough, and 14th out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the bunkers. The Morrish/Weiskopf design generally ranks harder than Tour average in around the green difficulty from the fairway, middle of the pack to slightly easier than Tour average in around the green difficulty from the rough, and right around Tour average to slightly easier than Tour average in around the green difficulty from the bunkers, which there are quite a few of on this course.
  • While this course does feature a higher greens in regulation percentage here than Tour average, I do not believe that short game is completely irrelevant at this tournament. Yes, this course does feature large greens, and scrambling percentage is higher than Tour average, but players will be faced with their fare share of delicate little chips off tight Bermuda on this course. We see it every year coming down the stretch. In 2021, Xander lost this tournament with his short game, while Brooks won it. Last year shared a similar tone, as Scottie Scheffler was an assassin around the greens.
  • Judging by the historical data, it’s important to identify the players who are best at chipping off closely mown Bermuda. While the rough and bunkers do not provide a great deal of pushback, excellence out of the collection areas is an essential check mark year after year at this event. The best long term around the green players on Bermuda golf courses are Matt Kuchar, Tommy Fleetwood, Mackenzie Hughes, Chris Kirk, Scott Piercy, Justin Thomas, Si Woo Kim, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Andrew Putnam, and Seamus Power. 

 

• Putting 
  • Last year, 30.7% of strokes gained at TPC Scottsdale came via the flat-stick, which is well below the Tour average of 35.6%. Last year was a bit of an anomaly with such an absolutely loaded leaderboard of elite ball-strikers. That number sits historically at 36.9%, which is slightly above Tour average, but as the field seemingly gets better year after year, the importance of putting is trending in the wrong direction.
  • Last year, TPC Scottsdale ranked 17th out of 38 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, which is generally the easiest aspect of this course. Last year was a bit of anomaly as well, as the Morrish/Weiskopf design has been generally far closer to the bottom of the pack in terms of difficulty. In 2020, it ranked 26th out 29 courses in putting difficulty. In 2017, it ranked 36th out of 37 courses in putting difficulty, and in 2016, it ranked 35th out of 37 courses in putting difficulty.
  • I’ve already discussed the nature of these over-seed Bermuda greens, which run extremely pure, a far cry from what we’ve seen the last two weeks at Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach. Last year, TPC Scottsdale ranked 35th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty inside five feet, and if we increase the same size, it consistently ranks as one of the easiest courses to make putts on inside five feet.
  • Last year, it ranked 16th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and historically, it ranks right around Tour average to easier than Tour average in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet.
  • Last year, TPC Scottsdale ranked 11th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from greater than 15 feet, which is a bit of an anomaly. The Morrish/Weiskopf design generally ranks as one of the easiest lag putting courses on the PGA Tour. Yes, these greens are extremely large and they do feature some undulation, but dormant Bermuda over-seeded with Velvet Bent-grass is about as pure as it gets. This is a ball-striker’s course through and through, and I will be below my standard weight on putting this week.
  • The best long-term putters on over-seeded Bermuda have been Brian Gay, Ben Taylor, Sam Burns, Kevin Kisner, Adam Long, Tyrrell Hatton, Brendon Todd, Taylor Montgomery, Andrew Putnam, and Lucas Herbert. 

 

• Scoring Stats 
  • Like all TPC Courses, you’re going to need to make some birdies. There’s obviously a strong correlation between players who rated out highly in birdies or better gained and top-10 finishers. That’s obviously the case everywhere, but it’s even more pronounced at a course like TPC Scottsdale that rewards aggressive play. Despite this never being a tournament that is won at 25 under par, 17 of 18 holes on this course all feature a historic birdie rate of over 10%. Yet the reason why this course event never hits 25 under is because there is seemingly a big number at every turn, and 10 out of 18 holes feature over a 15% bogey rate.
  • In my opinion, this is a good week to compare and contrast birdies or better gained with bogey avoidance, and identify players that can both score and navigate their way around trouble. The players in this field that make the most birdies per round are Rory McIlroy. Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele, Taylor Montgomery, Jon Rahm, Cameron Young, Patrick Cantlay, Tom Kim, Justin Thomas, and Jordan Spieth. In contrast, the best players in this field in bogey avoidance are Rory McIlroy, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Tony Finau, Shane Lowry, Xander Schauffele, Brian Harman, Andrew Putnam, Matt Kuchar, Hideki Matsuyama, and Maverick McNealy. 
  • While TPC Scottsdale is not a pure birdie fest nor a pure wedge fest, I still find it valuable to look at opportunities gained on any course with this many scoring opportunities, as this is a metric that can consistently help us identify players that are under-performing from a scoring standpoint compared to the opportunities they are providing for themselves. The players that give themselves the most birdie looks inside 15 feet per round are Rory McIlroy, Tom Hoge, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Brendan Steele, Kurt Kitayama, Shane Lowry, Davis Riley, Collin Morikawa, and Patrick Cantlay. 
  • For what it’s worth, if we are trying to identify those who are most due for an elite performance if they can find a hot flat-stick, the players that rank inside the top-20 in opportunities gained, but outside of the top-20 in birdies or better gained are Brendan Steele, Kurt Kitayama, Shane Lowry, Davis Riley, Collin Morikawa, Corey Conners, Russell Henley, Hideki Matsuyama, and Trey Mullinax. By my metrics, these players present the most value in this field.

 

• Comp Courses/Course History 
  • TPC Scottsdale is a course that we travel to every single year, the weather is always perfect, and there is very rarely any wind. It’s essentially like playing golf in a dome. Many of the same players seem to find success here every year, and the Morrish/Weiskopf design does feature one of the strongest correlations between course history and success. TPC Scottsdale ranks fifth out of the current 35 courses on the PGA Tour schedule in correlation between course history and repeated success. The best players in this field at TPC Scottsdale have been Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele, Rickie Fowler, Webb Simpson, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, Matt Kuchar, Max Homa, and Patrick Cantlay. 
  • I do not believe that this has anything to do with the nuance of this course ala Augusta National. As previously mentioned, the greens at TPC Scottsdale are extremely straightforward and lack a great deal of character. It’s the type of course that players should be able to figure out fairly quickly. Brooks won this event in his first appearance here, Kyle Stanley won on his first appearance here, Hideki almost won on his first appearance here, Branden Grace almost won on his first appearance here, Jon Rahm nearly won on his first appearance as an amateur, and Patrick Cantlay made the playoff last year as an amateur. Still, there are a great number of players that continue to show up here year after year, and outside of Webb Simpson and Matt Kuchar, all are extremely well rounded players who specifically thrive off the tee.
  • How much may the entirely unique Ryder Cup-esque atmosphere at this event have anything to do with that as well? Brooks has spoken before about how he thrives off the energy here, and I think that’s one of the reasons that TPC Scottsdale has been one of the very few courses outside of major championships that he’s been able to get up for. The WM Phoenix Open is obviously not a major, but there is enough juice and excitement to hold his attention. On the other hand, most regular PGA Tour events lack any form of energy, and they may feel a bit dull to him due to the lack of competitive stakes. Good luck with LIV, buddy.
  • Brooks is just one example. We’ve heard players discuss often when golf first came back during the pandemic. Rory McIlroy, for example, loves feeding off the crowd. I don’t necessarily believe it’s a coincidence that players such as Justin Thomas, who has been so strong in team events have also been so consistently strong at the WM Phoenix Open. My working theory is that the list of players that have been so excellent here may have less to do with their specific course fit, and more to do with their love of this unique and electric atmosphere.
  • As far as comp courses go, there are a great deal of similarities between TPC courses in general, as most were designed with the same concept in mind. The most obvious one that comes to mind in terms of a desert golf course, where keeping the ball in play off the tee is of upmost importance, and aggressive play is rewarded would be TPC Summerlin, host of the Shriner’s Hospital for Children Open. The best players in this field at TPC Summerlin have been Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, Matthew NeSmith, Adam Hadwin, Tony Finau, Martin Laird, Adam Schenk, Webb Simpson, Jason Day, and Tom Kim. Unsurprisingly, there is a ton of overlap across both leaderboards.
  • Other TPC courses that come to mind include TPC Boston, TPC Sawgrass, TPC River Highlands, and TPC Twin Cities. All have their similarities and differences. TPC Sawgrass is a little more positional and less driver heavy, but there is a certainly a ton of crossover across both those leaderboards as well. I really like the fact that TPC Twin Cities is extremely driver heavy with a ton of trouble at every turn that rewards aggressive play. The concept of a driver heavy course that rates out extremely high in penalty strokes per round, and also places an emphasis on chipping off tight Bermuda lies is the Concession, host of the 2021 WGC Workday Championship. The players in this field that finished top-20 at the Concession are Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Billy Horschel, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson, Matt Fitzpatrick, Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Aaron Rai, Brendon Todd, and Jason Day. Unsurprisingly, a ton of the same names pop up, and for what it’s worth, Brooks also finished runner-up at the Concession.
  • Finally, the Summit Club, host of the the 2021 CJ Cup is another driver heavy, desert course that rewards aggressive play off the tee. The players in this field that finished top-20 at the Summit Club are Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Rickie Fowler, Keith Mitchell, Aaron Wise, Sam Burns, Robert Streb, Sungjae Im, Gary Woodland, Webb Simpson, Jhonattan Vegas, Chris Kirk, Viktor Hovland, Justin Thomas, Tyrrell Hatton, Jordan Spieth, Emiliano Grillo, and Xander Schauffele. Once again, many of the same names!

 

Model 

• Off the Tee (18%)
  • Strokes Gained Off the Tee (9%)
  • Good Drive Percentage (9%)
• Approach (26%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (18%)
  • Long-term Proximity 150-175 yards (8%)
• Around the Green (8%)
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green: Bermuda (8%)
• Putting (10%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Over-seeded Bermuda (10%)
• Scoring Stats (21%)
  • Opportunities Gained (8%)
  • Birdies or Better Gained (8%)
  • Bogey Avoidance (5%)
• Comp Courses/Course History (17%)
  • TPC Scottsdale (10%)
  • TPC Summerlin (3%)
  • Summit Club (2%)
  • The Concession (2%)

 

Model Top 20 

1. Tony Finau
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Scottie Scheffler
4. Xander Schauffele
5. Sungjae Im
6. Tom Kim
7. Jon Rahm
8. Shane Lowry
9. Collin Morikawa
10. Tom Hoge
11. Patrick Cantlay
12. Justin Thomas
13. Brain Harman
14. Hideki Matsuyama
15. Russell Henley
16. Corey Conners
17. Matt Kuchar
18. Ben Taylor
19. Tommy Fleetwood
20. Max Homa

 

Best of luck this week! – AL