By Andy Lack

Greetings, and welcome to a weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the Scramble with Rick, every Tuesdays and Fridays on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed. I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!

The Basics 

• Course: TPC Southwind
• Location: Memphis, Tennessee
• Designer: Ron Pritchard (1987), PGA Tour re-design (2004)
• Length: Par 70; 7,233 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on 11 holes
• Fairways: Zoysia-grass
• Rough: 2’5” Bermuda-grass
• Greens: 4,300 square foot on average feating Champion Bermuda-grass, running 11 on the stimp

The FedEx St. Jude has been held in Memphis, Tennessee since 1958, but it first came to TPC Southwind in 1989. In 2019, FedEx took over sponsorship of the WGC Invitational, so the tournament was granted WGC status. Yet for this season, it has taken on new form again as the first FedEx Cup playoff event.

In terms of its statistical profile, TPC Southwind is about as middle of the road as it gets. It ranked 20th out of 40 courses last year in scoring average. Generally it plays somewhat harder than that, but it’s never one of the top-10 most difficult courses on the PGA Tour. The par threes, par fours, and par fives all rank middle of the pack in terms of difficulty. Yet similar to many southern Bermuda-grass courses, its character is defined by water, which comes into play on 11 holes. TPC Southwind is not simply about avoiding landmines on nearly every shot similar to PGA National or TPC Sawgrass, but it does rank inside the top-10 in penalty strokes per round every single year. 

The Ron Pritchard design could best be described as a hybrid of many the predictable course categories that we have grown accustomed to on the PGA Tour. It’s not a short, positional, club down course like Sedgefield or Waialae, but it’s not particularly imposing either. It’s certainly not a birdie-fest, but it’s not overly challenging either. TPC Southwind is actually a lot like Innisbrook in the sense that it does have some features of short positional courses (penalty for wayward driving, narrow fairways, most holes curve), but its just long enough where we will still see players hit their fare share of drivers.

In terms of the actual hole by hole breakdown, TPC Southwind is a standard par-70 with four par threes, all measuring under 200 yards, but that doesn’t mean they are easy, as all of them play to a scoring average above par. The 12 par fours are nearly all medium to longer in length. Not one of them are remotely drivable, and the shortest four on the scorecard is 395 yards. Eight of the par fours measure between 430 and 490 yards, so we are definitely dealing with a longer course than what we saw at Sedgefield last week, which had eight par fours between 400 and 450 yards. This explains why such a large plurality (nearly 70%!) of approach shots at TPC Southwind come from 125-200 yards. The two par fives are the easiest holes on the course, but the third hole only has a 33.5% birdie rate, which is actually low for a par-five. Only three holes on this course feature over a 20% birdie rate, so outside of the 16th hole, there’s not a lot of true birdie opportunities on this course. There are more holes with over a 20% bogey rate than there are a 20% birdie rate, which makes sense given the amount of hazards on this course.

Let’s dive into the stats.

 

Stats 

• Off the Tee
  • Last year, 12.8% of strokes gained at TPC Southwind came off the tee, which is healthily below the Tour average of 15.2%. That number does creep up to 14.7% historically.
  • Last year, it ranked 25th out of 40 courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty. Historically, it ranks right around middle the pack in this category, which was surprising to me given the penalty for missing the fairway.
  • TPC Southwind features the ninth most narrow fairways on the PGA Tour. Historical driving accuracy has only been 56%, compared to the Tour average of 62%. Last year, it ranked sixth out of 40 courses in missed fairway penalty, and the prior two years, it ranked inside the top-three in this same category.
  • TPC Southwind also ranked sixth out of 40 courses last year in rough penalty, and each of the last five years it has ranked inside the top-10 in this category. You do not want to be playing from the rough here. It’s very easy to score from this course from the fairway, but extremely challenging to score from the rough, which is often the case on courses with sticky Bermuda rough. I wrote about this last week as it pertained to the difference between Sedgefield and Detroit Golf Club, but real reason why the latter can be bomb and gauged and the former cannot (both courses are nearly exactly the same length) is because of the difference between Bermuda and Blue-grass rough. It’s way harder to control spin out of Bermuda rough than Blue-grass, especially in extreme heat, thus making it far more challenging to create a predictable outcome. TPC Southwind creates an even starker contrast between the challenge of playing from the rough versus the fairway because of the Zoysia grass. Zoysia grass is extremely pure, It’s almost like hitting off a mat, the ball sits up really well. Some pros actually don’t like this (which is a whole different article), but I actually believe there is a huge advantage, moreso than other courses, from playing from the fairway at TPC Southwind because of the stark contrast in the ability to control spin off Zoysia grass versus Bermuda rough.
  • Here’s a few quotes that further illustrate this theory:
    • Daniel Berger: “You just have to hit it in the fairways. Otherwise it’s difficult to get it close.”
    • Fabian Gomez: “I’m the kind of guy that usually, my driver is straight. And on this course, you know, there are many holes where you need to be really competitive with your driver. And also so many holes you need to play a fade.”
    • Ben Crane: “I got in the rough a number of times. I’ll tell you what, this is no golf course to play from the rough, it makes it so difficult. You get a lot of fliers, hard to control the ball.”
    • Lee Westwood: “It’s quite tight. You need to drive the ball straight, although, you know, it does give you opportunities, where it’s not driver on every hole as well. But there is a massive premium on hitting fairways here. You know, holes like 18, 12, if you’re not in the fairway there and in 15, you can make par difficult.”
    • Retief Goosen: “It’s a golf course where you need to hit a lot of different kind of shots off the tee. It’s not a golf course that you can just blast away at. So actually, a lot of holes with doglegs. You pretty much have no chance of stopping it on these greens with the rough.”
  • Add all of this together, and it should not come as a surprise that last year, 15 of the top-16 on the leaderboard gained to the field in good drive percentage. The only two players in the top-10 that did not drive the ball well were Sam Burns and Paul Casey, who both gained over six strokes putting. Unless you want to be relying heavily on the putter, it’s imperative to drive the ball in the short-grass at TPC Southwind. The year before, 17 of the top-20 gained in good drive percentage. Justin Thomas won and led the field in good drive percentage, and as a result, he was able to win the tournament despite losing almost two strokes putting!
  • Ultimately, I imagine that I will be heavier on off the tee this week than most. I would prefer to look at good drive percentage, as opposed to just pure driving accuracy, because it’s not as if the fairways are impossible to hit here. There are certainly examples of players succeeding at TPC Southwind without driving the ball well, but nearly every single one of them gained a ton with the flat-stick. Players who do not consistently play from the fairway will be putting themselves completely behind the eight-ball. The best players in good drive percentage over the last year have been Martin Laird, Xander Schauffele, Corey Conners, Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Mito Pereira, Brendan Steele, Shane Lowry, Brendan Todd, and Kevin Streelman. 

 

• Approach
  • Last year, 41.8% of strokes gained at strokes gained at TPC Southwind came on approach, which is well above the Tour average of 34.7%. That number falls to 35.6% historically, which is still above Tour average.
  • Last year, TPC Southwind ranked 21st out of 40 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty. Historically, it has ranked harder than Tour average, but it is never inside the top-10 in this category.
  • TPC Southwind ranked right around the middle of the pack in greens in regulation percentage last year, but it generally skews on the tougher side.
  • It ranked right around middle of the pack in approach difficulty from under 150 yards, and right around middle of the pack in approach difficulty from over 150 yards.
  • 20.8% of approach shots at TPC Southwind have come from 125-150 yards, 23.0% have come from 150-175 yards, and 21.5% come from 175-200 yards. All of the other proximity buckets are below Tour average, so this is neither a wedge fest, nor a long iron course. Close to two thirds of all approach shots at TPC Southwind come from between 125 and 200 yards. The best mid to short iron players in this field over the last year have been Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama, Lee Hodges, Lucas Glover, Shane Lowry, Russell Knox, and Russell Henley. 
  • Last year, it was really all about iron play, as the top-five on the leaderboard all gained over four strokes on approach, and the only two players in the top-12 that did not hit their irons well (Cam Smith and Jordan Spieth) both gained over five strokes putting. 2021 told a similar story. Justin Thomas won because he kept the ball in play off the tee and was absolutely electric with his irons. Brooks finished second that year gaining 8.4 strokes on approach, and losing 2.7 putting. Again, the only players to finish top-15 that year that didn’t hit their irons well were Matt Fitzpatrick and Xander Schauffele, who gained a combined 13.4 strokes putting.
  • Contrary to what we saw the last two weeks at Detroit Golf Club and Sedgefield, I do believe that TPC Southwind is a course where it’s easier for elite ball-strikers to separate themselves from tee to green. It’s a course that really does reward total driving and mid iron play. At Detroit Golf Club, I was primarily focused on putting, birdie or better percentage, and players that raise their baseline in easier scoring conditions. At Sedgefield, I wanted to identify players that improved their baseline on short, positional golf courses. On the contrary, TPC Southwind is a course where overall tee to green play should be at the top of mind, specifically total driving and mid iron play. It should not come as a huge surprise that three of the last four years, the winner (Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson) have been priced at 11/1 or lower.

 

• Around the Green 
  • Last year, 11.8% of strokes gained at TPC Southwind came around the green, which is well below the Tour average of 14.5%. Historically, that number floats back up to Tour average.
  • It ranked 16th out of 40 courses last year in strokes gained around the green difficulty. Historically, TPC Southwind has ranked as one of the harder around the green courses on the PGA Tour.
  • TPC Southwind ranked 11th out of 40 courses in around the green difficulty from the fairway, 16th out of 40 courses in around the green difficulty from the rough, and 39th out of 40 courses in around the green difficulty from the bunkers. It generally ranks harder than Tour average in around the green difficulty from the fairway and rough, but it has some of the easier bunkers on Tour.
  • Here’s a quote from Ben Crane, “Scrambling around these greens is just incredibly difficult with the rough around the greens. Grainy lies. It makes some of the guys look silly.” Just like last week, I will be looking to specifically identify players that raise their short game baseline on Bermuda courses. The best long-term around the green players on Bermuda courses in this field have been Matt Kuchar, Keegan Bradley, Si Woo Kim, Chris Kirk, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Dylan Frittelli, Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, and Justin Thomas. 
  • TPC Southwind is undeniably a course where short game matters. The greens in regulation percentage is low enough where players will be forced to scramble, and the degree of difficulty of chipping here is on the higher side. Justin Thomas was sixth in scrambling en route to victory. Brooks Koepka was first, and Dustin Johnson ranked fourth. In 2020, 19 of the top-20 gained strokes around the green. In 2021, the three players who made the playoff all ranked top-six in around the green.

 

• Putting 
  • Last year, 30.5% of strokes gained at TPC Southwind came putting, which is well below the Tour average of 35.0%. Historically, that number floats back up to Tour average.
  • Last year, TPC Southwind ranked 36th out of 40 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, and historically, it has always ranked easier than Tour average in strokes gained putting difficulty.
  • It ranked 27th out of 40 courses in putting difficulty inside five feet, 39th out of 40 courses in putting from five to 15 feet, and 26th out of 40 courses in putting from over 15 feet. Historically, TPC Southwind has been one of the easier courses to putt on the PGA Tour. 
  • Here’s a quote from Lee Westwood, “The greens are immaculate, really. There’s no excuse for making putts.” Daniel Berger added, “The greens feel like I’m just at home and, you know, I love the Bermuda and I don’t even read grain here. I just look at it and it’s just from years and years of putting on it.”
  • As I’ve already alluded to, TPC Southwind is a course that does a really solid job of accentuating elite ball-striking. It’s far from a putting contest, the greens in regulation percentage is far too low, and we’ve even seen players win this tournament losing strokes putting. The degree of difficulty of putting on this course is one of the lowest on the PGA Tour. There is not a lot of slope or nuance to these green complexes. I will of course, be looking for players that raise their baseline on Bermuda greens, but overall, I’m under-weight on putting. The best long-term Bermuda putters in this field have been Chesson Hadley, Cameron Smith, Sam Burns, Brendon Todd, Matthew Fitzpatrick , Kevin Kisner, Denny McCarthy, Billy Horschel, Lucas Herbert, and Adam Long. 

 

• Scoring Stats 
  • As mentioned as it regards to around the green, scrambling is a stat that popped up for me, and one I tend to look at any time we travel to a course with a lot of water and a low greens in regulation percentage. The best scramblers in this field over the past year have been Matthew Fitzpatrick, Matt Kuchar, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Denny McCarthy, Tony Finau, J.T. Poston, Seamus Power, Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young, and Lucas Herbert. 
  • I wrote about this last week as it pertained to Sedgefield, but many talk about the differences between Bermuda, Poa, and Bent-grass greens, without really mentioning the differences in agronomy throughout the rest of the course. I actually believe that the difference between chipping and hitting iron shots out of Bermuda versus Blue-grass rough is more of a stark contrast than the difference between putting on Bermuda and Bent-grass greens. For example, Patrick Cantlay is a player whose baseline is always lowered on Bermuda courses, and its not that his putting actually gets that much worse, its that his tee to green play gets that much worse. Players speak often often about their frustration in chipping or hitting iron shots out of Bermuda rough, especially when it comes to chipping. A different technique is required, so I’ve been starting to look more closely at tee to green performance on different agronomical courses as opposed to just putting. Everyone wants to talk about the differences between Bermuda and Bent-grass putting, but when actually digging into it (Cantlay is a good example), it’s often the Bermuda rough that trips players up far more than the Bermuda greens. The best long-term tee to green players on Bermuda courses have been Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland, Will Zalatoris, Keegan Bradley, Rory McIlroy, and Luke List.

 

• Comp Courses/Course History 
  • In terms of course history, TPC Southwind ranks right around middle of the pack in terms of the predictive nature of its course history. There are certainly players that seem to show up here year after year, but elite tee to green players such as Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, and Justin Thomas, are going to be there at most courses. Those players have experienced so much success here not just because they have some secret elixir with TPC Southwind, but because they are amongst the best ball-strikers in the world and this is a course that accentuates that skill. I do not believe that TPC Southwind is in the same vein as Augusta or even Sedgefield, where certain players will get a bump regardless of form. Recent tee to green play is always going to trump course history here. The best players in this field at TPC Southwind have been Chez Reavie, Webb Simpson, Billy Horschel, Trey Mullinax, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Seamus Power, Scott Stallings, Hideki Matsuyama, and Will Zalatoris. 
  • In my opinion, East Lake is really the best comp course we have at our disposal. Both courses feature an extremely hot climate, with unpredictable, sticky Bermuda rough, Zoysia fairways, tougher than average scoring conditions, and a lot of medium length to longer par fours. The only real difference between those courses is that Southwind has far more benign green complexes. The best players in this field at East Lake have been Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Chris Kirk, Russell Henley, Billy Horschel, Justin Rose, Danny Lee, Jon Rahm, and Tyrrell Hatton. 
  • Another course that I will be looking at is Innisbrook, which features somewhat similar agronomy, tougher scoring conditions, a large plurality of middle irons, and an emphasis on playing from the fairway. It should not come as a surprise that a lot of the same names (Sam Burns, Abraham Ancer, Justin Thomas, Webb Simpson) have popped up on both leaderboards. The best players in this field at Innisbrook have been Sam Burns, Jordan Spieth, Matthew NeSmith, Davis Riley, Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Rose, Matt Kuchar, and Sungjae Im. 
  • I also noticed a large correlation with the Honda Classic, as Lee Westwood, Daniel Berger, Justin Thomas, and Tommy Fleetwood, amongst others, have rose to the top of both leaderboards. PGA National is another course where it’s imperative to keep the ball in play off the tee. The Nicklaus design is more tricked up in the amount of landmines, but both courses consistently rank inside the top-10 in penalty strokes per round. The best players in this field at PGA National have been Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose, Gary Woodland, Lucas Glover, Sepp Straka, Sungjae Im, Adam Scott, Brendan Steele, and Russell Henley. 
  • Finally, just from a pure agronomy and climate standpoint, the Country Club of Jackson, host of the Sanderson Farms, features the exact same Champion Bermuda-grass greens, exorbitantly high temperatures, and sticky Bermuda rough. C.C. of Jackson is certainly a lot easier and more of a putting contest, but just from a climate, agronomy, and aesthetics standpoint, I want to identify players that are comfortable playing in extreme heat on Champion Bermuda-grass greens. Not a lot of the same players that are playing in a WGC will also be playing a Fall swing event, but Sam Burns lost in a playoff in Memphis, and went on to win at Jackson just two months later. The best players in this field at the Country Club of Jackson have been Denny McCarthy, Corey Conners, Sam Burns, Sungjae Im, Kevin Streelman, C.T. Pan, Luke List, Cameron Young, J.T. Poston, and Xander Schauffele. 

 

Model Inputs 

• Off the Tee (18%)
  • Strokes Gained Off the Tee (10%)
  • Good Drive Percentage (8%)
• Approach (37%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (20%)
  • Long-term Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)
  • Long-term Proximity 150-175 yards (7%)
  • Long-term Proximity 175-200 yards (5%)
• Around the Green (8%)
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green: Bermuda courses (8%)
• Putting (10%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Bermuda courses (10%)
• Scoring Stats (12%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Bermuda courses (6%)
  • Scrambling (6%)
• Course History/Comp Courses (15%)
  • TPC Southwind (5%)
  • East Lake (3%)
  • Valspar (3%)
  • Country Club of Jackson (2%)
  • PGA National (2%)

Model 

1. Justin Thomas
2. Shane Lowry
3. Rory McIlroy
4. Scottie Scheffler
5. Tony Finau
6. Will Zalatoris
7. Xander Schauffele
8. Russell Henley
9. Hideki Matsuyama
10. Aaron Wise
11. Matthew Fitzpatrick
12. Sam Burns
13. Mito Pereira
14. Chris Kirk
15. Viktor Hovland
16. Jordan Spieth
17. Cameron Smith
18. Corey Conners
19. Sungjae Im
20. Jon Rahm

Most over-valued based on expected price: Cameron Smith (18th), Sungjae Im (20th), Jon Rahm (21st), Cameron Young (28th), Max Homa (35th), Patrick Cantlay (37th), Davis Riley (56th), Tyrrell Hatton (68th),

Most under-valued based on expected price: Shane Lowry (2nd), Russell Henley (9th), Aaron Wise (11th), Mito Pereira (14th), Chris Kirk (15th), Keegan Bradley (23rd), Brendan Steele (26th), Luke List (27th)