By Andy Lack

Greetings, and welcome to a weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the betting preview with Rick on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed. I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!

The Basics 

• Course: TPC Summerlin
• Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
• Designer: Bobby Weed (1991)
• Length: Par 71; 7,255 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on four holes
• Fairways: Bandera Bermuda-grass, measuring 35 yards wide on average
• Rough: 419 Bermuda-grass (Two and a quarter inches)
• Greens: Dominator Bent-grass running 11.5 on the stimp and averaging 7,400 square feet on average

 

The Shriners Hospital for Children Open was founded in 1983, and is played annually as part of the PGA Tour’s fall swing in Las Vegas. While it has moved across a number of courses in the greater Las Vegas area, the event has found its current home at TPC Summerlin, which has had hosting duties now for over a decade.

The conversation on TPC Summerlin has to begin with the altitude. This course plays much shorter than the scorecard suggests. For context, average driving distance at Summerlin is 296 yards, compared to the Tour average of 282 yards. The 7,255 yards on the scorecard plays closer to 6,900. A significant re-design in 2018 called for a relocation of over 100 bunkers to account for players hitting the ball longer. This felt like an active effort to discourage the bomb and gauge approach, although we can litigate how effective they were in that endeavor. Ultimately, this course would require a major overhaul to provide any legitimate teeth and prevent the winning score from crossing the 20-under mark.

At its current design, the Summerlin’s greatest defense is the wind. It can definitely get windy in Las Vegas, so be sure to monitor the weather as the week goes on. I will have a full weather report in the Wednesday DraftKings article. In 2017, the year that Patrick Cantlay won, the course actually played really hard. He won the tournament at -9. The average winning score over the last decade, excluding that year, has been -22! 2017 saw some serious winds, but that’s only happened once in the last decade. Usually, the conditions are fairly benign, but this is still something to keep an eye out for.

Presuming the conditions will be similar to what we have seen nine out of the last ten editions, expect players to tear this course to shreds. I actually believe this is the easiest of the Fall swing courses, and one of the easiest on the PGA Tour in general. Last year, it played as the sixth easiest course on the PGA Tour. The prior year, it played as the third easiest, and the prior year, it played as the second easiest. The 239 yard eighth is the only hole on the course with under a 10% birdie rate. It featured the fourth easiest set of par fours on the schedule, and the eighth easiest set of par fives. The par threes do provide a bit of teeth, playing as the second, third, fourth, and 12th hardest holes on the course. Yet if you can navigate the par threes in even par, nearly every other hole on the course provides a legitimate birdie opportunity. Seven par fours measure between 400 and 450 yards, which explains the large plurality of short iron approach shots. Only two par fours measure over 465 yards, and they come very early in the round (the second and third holes). The three par fives are a cakewalk as well, all playing to a scoring average of 4.62 or lower and featuring over a 40% birdie rate. Even the 13th, which measures over 600 yards, can be reachable, and features a 41% birdie rate. If players fail to make birdie on nine and 16, they will be losing half a stroke to the field.

I know I probably sound like a broken record with these fall swing courses, but the formula at TPC Summerlin is extremely straightforward: wedges and putting! There are some nuances to TPC Summerlin that certainly differentiate it from Silverado and Jackson Country Club, such as a greater emphasis on the second shot, and trickier green-side areas, but you’ll certainly notice some similarities in my model and breakdown this week. Let’s dive into the stats.

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • Last year, only 8.9% of strokes gained came off the tee, which is just about as low as you will ever see. Historically, that number creeps back up to 13%, which is still comfortably below the Tour average of 15.2% This strongly supports my thesis that elite off the tee play is of little value at TPC Summerlin, and that this course is all about the second shot. 
  • Last year, TPC Summerlin ranked 34th out of 38 courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty. The year prior, it ranked 39th out of 40 courses in off the tee difficulty. Summerlin is one of the absolute easiest driving courses on the PGA Tour. At least Silverado and the C.C. of Jackson have narrow fairways! As long as you avoid the giant desert miss, Summerlin is all out in front of you.
  • I’ve heard this course be talked about as positional. I’m not sure I agree with that. I already mentioned that driving distance came in at an astronomically high 296 yards, and while some of that is due to the altitude, players hit driver on this course often. At least if I was advising a PGA Tour pro, I would tell him to pull driver on nearly every single hole. I think pros do for the most part. Driving accuracy (60.3%) is still lower than Tour average, which pokes a bit of a hole in the positional strategy.
  • Last year, TPC Summerlin ranked 21st out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalty, 13th out of 38 courses in rough penalty, and 18th out of 38 courses in non-rough penalty. If we zoom out, the non-rough penalty actually gets harder historically, and the rough penalty gets easier. Translation: Players need not worry about the two inch Bermuda rough, the only concern off the tee comes from giant misses that land in the desert. Still, TPC Summerlin ranked only 23rd out of 38 courses in fraction of missed fairways that resulted in a penalty stroke, and comfortably easier than Tour average in overall missed fairway penalty.
  • On a driver heavy course where there is little penalty for wayward driving, one would think that TPC Summerlin fits the bomb and gauge label. I’m still not sold. Since there is such little challenge off the tee, TPC Summerlin is through and through a second shot golf course, which can be explained by the fact that close to 75% of strokes gained last year came via approach and putting. Having an extra 20 yards off the tee here isn’t a huge advantage, as shorter players will still often have a wedge in their hands. A shorter player that is strong from 150-175 yards will still have a greater edge than a longer player who is weak from 100-125 yards. Rod Pampling summed it up well, “This is a good golf course for the shorter hitters. Would it be nice to hit it long? Absolutely. But you don’t need to. You know, it’s just a good course for that. You don’t have to be a bomber to do it all.” 
  • I was unable to find much correlation between either driving accuracy or driving distance and success on this course, and I really do believe that off the tee play is de-valued here. The most I could find were a few player quotes about keeping the ball in the fairway, but I’ve learned through years of breaking down courses that players say that about every course. The long-term statistics do not give a whole lot of credence to elite distance or accuracy being anything more than a luxury on this course. Last year, four players in the top-six, and seven players in the top-11, lost over a stroke off the tee! Focus on short irons, scoring, and putting on this course.

 

• Approach
  • Last year, 38.8% of strokes gained came on approach, which is well above the Tour average of 34.7%. That number does fall closer to the Tour average when zooming out.
  • TPC Summerlin also ranked 19th out of 38 courses last year in strokes gained approach difficulty. Historically, it has ranked as one of the easiest approach courses on Tour, although I would certainly contend that the degree of difficulty on the approach shots at TPC Summerlin is higher than the degree of difficulty on the tee shots.
  • The historic green in regulation percentage here of 72.5% is comically high. Each of the last four years, Summerlin has ranked inside the top-seven easiest greens to hit on the PGA Tour.
  • TPC Summerlin ranked 19th out of 38 courses in approach difficulty inside 150 yards, and 18th out of 38 courses in approach difficulty greater than 150 yards. Pretty straightforward stuff.
  • As expected, a large plurality (52%) of approach shots at TPC Summerlin historically come from 100-175 yards, and this is certainly a range that we want to be focused on, particularly 125-175 yards. Players will still see a few long iron approaches because of the two longer par threes, and the reachable par fives, but long iron player is not enough of a correlated skillset for us to spend a great deal of time on. Unsurprisingly as well, the lack of medium length to longer par fours create a large gap between short irons and long irons, with only 24% of all approach shots coming from 175-225 yards. The best long-term middle to short iron players in this field are Justin Lower, Emiliano Grillo, Russell Knox, John Huh, Ryan Moore, Tom Hoge, Lee Hodges, Sam Ryder, Adam Svensson, and Tom Kim. 

 

• Around the Green
  • Last year, 14.8% of strokes gained came around the green, which is still above the Tour average of 14.5%, and historically that number jumps to 16.1%, which is a bit of a surprise given how high the greens in regulation percentage on this course is.
  • The reason for this is that the green-side surrounds at TPC Summerlin are actually quite challenging. Last year, TPC Summerlin ranked 14th out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty, and historically, it has actually ranked as one of the harder short game courses on the PGA Tour. In 2018 and 2017, it ranked as the hardest around the green course on the PGA Tour!
  • Last year, TPC Summerlin ranked 11th out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the fairway, 24th out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the rough, and 12th out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the bunkers. Historically, this has been one of the harder courses around the green from the fairway (hardest in 2015, 2016, and 2019, second hardest in 2018 and 2020), which honestly could just be a turf issue. Still something to keep an eye out for.
  • TPC Summerlin is also littered with bunkers, and some of them are quite deep. In 2018, it ranked as the second hardest course to get up and down on from the bunkers, and in 2016, it ranked third. I wouldn’t go crazy on bunker play this week, because its doubtful that a player in contention is hitting too many bunkers to begin with, but there will inevitably be a few times throughout the tournament where being in this skill will be valuable. The best long-term bunker players in this field are Matt Kuchar, Lucas Herbert, Denny McCarthy, Brian Harman, Alex Noren, J.T. Poston, Wyndham Clark, David Lingmerth, Patrick Cantlay, and Ryan Armour. 
  • There’s an interesting dichotomy at TPC Summerlin between frequency and degree of difficulty. This courses features one of the highest greens in regulation percentages on the PGA Tour, so objectively, there will be very few times per round (on average) that a player will be forced to rely on his short game. However, on the few occasions that a player does miss a green, he may be left with a very challenging chip shot. I would not recommend weighing short game as much as we would on a course with a very low greens in regulation percentage, but this is probably the highest weight I have on a course so easy.

 

• Putting 
  • Last year, 37.5% of strokes gained at TPC Summerlin came putting, which is comfortably above the Tour average of 35.6%. That number does tick down a touch to 36.1% historically.
  • Also last year, TPC Summerlin ranked 36th out of 38 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, and historically, it has ranked as one of the easiest putting courses on the PGA Tour.
  • Last year, it ranked 30th out of 38 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty inside five feet, 34th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and 35th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty greater than 15 feet.
  • Like all courses with a high greens in regulation percentage and very little resistance from tee to green, putting is extremely important at TPC Summerlin. With that being said, these greens have virtually no character, and the degree of difficulty is extremely low. We’ve historically seen really strong putters experience success here, as since greens are so easy to hit, this tournament often turns into a question of who can make the most putts from five to 15 feet.
  • There aren’t too many examples of players being able to get by without great putting. Patrick Cantlay finished second in 2020 gaining less than a stroke putting, but generally, this is not a course that does the best job of separating from tee to green. Players can and have, been able to succeed on this course, often solely on the strength of their flat-stick.
  • There’s also been some confusion about the green surfaces. I’ve heard TPC Summerlin cited as having Bermuda greens, which is incorrect. The greens are pure Bent-grass, which would be the surface that we want to focus on this week. The best long-term Bent-grass putters in this field are Beau Hossler, Brendon Todd, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Lower, Alex Noren, Austin Cook, Harris English, Denny McCarthy, and J.T. Poston. 

 

• Scoring Stats 
  • The name of the game at TPC Summerlin is accumulating birdie opportunities and converting those at a high clip. This tournament is a track meet, and we need to identify players that are best positioned to score. The players that consistently generate the most birdie looks inside 15 feet per round are Mito Pereira, Tom Hoge, John Huh, Kurt Kitayama, Aaron Wise, Cameron Davis, Chris Gotterup, Patrick Cantlay, Davis Riley, and Austin Smotherman. 
  • Players will need to convert on these chances at a high rate. A bear minimum of three birdies per round is necessary to have any shot at even making the cut. Some players can get to eight, nine, or ten birdies on this golf course. This is a tournament that featured a cut of -4 in 2019 and 2021, and -6 in 2020. The players that make the most birdies per round are Patrick Cantlay, Kurt Kitayama, Cameron Davis, Aaron Wise, Davis Riley, Maverick McNealy, Emiliano Grillo, Max Homa, Tom Kim, and Danny Lee. 
  • In a classic track meet, I will always be looking to identify players are more comfortable in easy scoring conditions, and seem to do their best work in tournaments where going low is essential. The best long-term players in this field in easy scoring conditions are Patrick Cantlay, Seamus Power, Sungjae Im, Taylor Moore, Aaron Wise, Harris English, Maverick McNealy, Mark Hubbard, Tom Kim, and Troy Merritt. 

 

• Comp Courses/Course History
  • In terms of the predictive nature of its course history, TPC Summerlin is actually on the medium to higher end compared to other Tour courses. I think there is something to be said for a comfortability playing in altitude, and desert golf courses just seem to fit players’ eyes better than others. There’s also something to be said for the fact that many PGA Tour pros make their home in Las Vegas and are extremely comfortable under these turf conditions. Kevin Na, who will not be competing this week due to his deflection to the LIV Tour, is an example of a player who makes his home in Las Vegas, and always seems to show up at TPC Summerlin. Patrick Cantlay, Matthew Wolff, Bryson DeChambeau, Sungjae Im, Webb Simpson, and Adam Hadwin are all examples of players that just seem comfortable on desert golf courses. It should not come as a surprise that many of these players have also been excellent in the American Express as well, another tournament with a rotation of three, extremely non-penal, desert golf courses where the name of the game is wedge play and putting.
  • The best players in this field at TPC Summerlin have been Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, Adam Hadwin, Martin Laird, Adam Schenk, Matthew NeSmith, Beau Hossler, Aaron Wise, Patton Kizzire, and Robert Streb. 
  • The best players in this field at the three course rotation for the American Express (TPC Stadium at PGA West, Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club) have been Adam Hadwin, Harris English, Patrick Cantlay, Jason Dufner, David Lingmerth, Ryan Palmer, Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, James Hahn, and Brendon Todd. 
  • I went back and looked to see if there was any other course where performance off the tee accounted for zero percent of my model. The only one was Pebble Beach. Although not in a desert climate, Pebble is another course where I believe off the tee is extremely de-valued, and the emphasis falls squarely on the second shot, which is often with a wedge. Even Montery Peninsula C.C., another course in the Pebble Beach rotation, features an extremely similar course fit profile. The best players at Pebble Beach have been Kevin Streelman, Matthew NeSmith, Maverick McNealy, Nate Lashley, Jason Day, Jimmy Walker, Patrick Cantlay, Matt Wallace, and Chez Reavie. 
  • There are a number of other birdie-fests that feature little penalty for wayward driving, and place a greater emphasis on wedge play and putting, namely TPC Craig Ranch, Detroit Golf Club, and TPC Deere Run, amongst others. I will be looking at those courses through anecdotal research, but I feel like I’ve got them covered from a model standpoint under the easy scoring conditions bucket.

 

Model

• Off the Tee (0%)
• Approach (32%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (18%)
  • Proximity 100-125 yards (4%)
  • Proximity 125-150 yards (5%)
  • Proximity 150-175 yards (5%)
• Around the Green (8%)
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green (4%)
  • Sand Saves (4%)
• Putting (17%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Bent-grass (17%)
• Scoring Stats (28%)
  • Opportunities Gained (9%)
  • Birdies or Better Gained (9%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring Conditions (10%)
• Comp Courses/Course History (15%)
  • TPC Summerlin (6%)
  • Pebble Beach (3%)
  • Nicklaus Tournament Course (2%)
  • TPC Stadium Course at PGA West (2%)
  • La Quinta Country Club (2%)

Top 20 

1. Patrick Cantlay
2. Cameron Davis
3. Sungjae Im
4. Mark Hubbard
5. Adam Svensson
6. Aaron Wise
7. Tom Kim
8. Taylor Pendrith
9. Tom Hoge
10. J.T. Poston
11. Mito Pereira
12. Trey Mullinax
13. Brian Harman
14. Troy Merritt
15. Davis Riley
16. Chesson Hadley
17. Chris Kirk
18. David Lipsky
19. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
20. Adam Hadwin