By Andy Lack

Greetings, and welcome to a weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the Scramble with Rick, every Tuesdays and Fridays on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed. I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!

The Basics 

• Course: TPC Twin Cities
• Location: Blaine, Minnesota
• Designer: Arnold Palmer (2000) with a Tim Herron and Tom Lehman re-design (2018)
• Length: Par 71; 7,431 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on 15 holes
• Fairways: Bent-grass (38 yards wide on average)
• Rough: Blue-grass with Fescue (3 inches)
• Greens: 6,500 square feet (Bent-grass) running 12 on the stimp

The 3M Open was a Champions Tour event for 26 years before finally getting promoted to the PGA Tour in 2019. Matthew Wolff claimed victory in a playoff over Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa in the tournament debut. Michael Thompson won in less exciting fashion in 2020, and Cameron Champ found the winner’s circle last year.

After spending last week at the most romantic, strategic golf course on the planet, TPC Twin Cities is in an unenviable position. The contrast will be jarring, as the Arnold Palmer design is an extremely standard, run of the mill, vanilla PGA Tour course. It features wide open landing areas, flat putting surfaces, and tons of water. TPC Twin Cities resembles a Florida course in the sense that water is the real defining feature of the course. Last year, it ranked fifth out of 40 courses in penalty strokes per round, and it has ranked inside the top-six in this category each of the last three years. TPC Twin Cities is not a pure birdie-fest or a short course by any means, with three par threes over 200 yards, three par fives over 590 yards, and five par fours over 450 yards. Yet the course does sit above sea level, and the generous landing areas allow players bomb away with driver on nearly every hole. Still, the amount of water that comes into play will yield some big numbers. Under soft conditions, TPC Twin Cities ranked as the fifth easiest course on Tour in 2019. It was the fourth easiest course in 2020. Last year, tournament organizers did a much better job with the set-up and had the benefit of less rainfall in the weeks leading in. It ranked middle of the pack in terms of difficulty, and Cameron Champ only needed to get to 15-under par to claim victory. We did experience some wind, which also contributed to the more difficult scoring conditions, which will be worth monitoring this week as well. Let’s dig into the stats.

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • 19.4% of strokes gained at TPC Twin Cities have come off the tee, which is healthily above the Tour average of 15.2%.
  • TPC Twin Cities ranked 24th out of 40 courses last year in strokes gained off the tee difficulty.
  • Driving accuracy at TPC Twin Cities has been 63.7% compared to the Tour average of 62%, as these fairways are certainly on the wider side.
  • Driving distance at TPC Twin Cities has been 291 yards on average compared to the Tour average of 282 yards, which is a sizable jump. That has a bit to do with this course playing above sea level, and a lot to do with the fact that players will pull driver here on nearly every hole.
  • While the fairways at TPC Twin Cities are quite generous, the course did rank 11th out of 40 courses last year in missed fairway penalty. Water comes into play on a number of tee shots, so the penalty for wayward driving is severe.
  • The rough is not very much of an issue here, as TPC Twin Cities ranked easier than Tour average in scoring dispersion between the fairway and the rough. It ranked eighth out of 40 courses however in non-rough penalty, which again, speaks to the fact that there are many holes on this course where a big miss off the tee will result in a water ball. Driving the ball in the rough is not a big concern here, but it will be imperative for players to avoid the hazards.
  • Back to the amount of water, TPC Twin Cities ranked fifth out of 40 courses in fraction of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke. For this reason, it’s a great week to look at good drive percentage. Players will not need to be super accurate off the tee to experience success at TPC Twin Cities, but there is a huge penalty for massive foul balls. Good drive percentage can help me identify players who are not necessarily the most accurate drivers in the world, but can keep the ball in play off the tee and put themselves in a position to hit the green in regulation. Last year, every single one of the top-10 on the leaderboard gained against the field in good drive percentage. The best players over the last year in this field in good drive percentage have been Martin Laird, Brendan Steele, Brendon Todd, Matthew NeSmith, Ryan Armour, Brian Stuard, Chez Reavie, Hayden Buckley, Nate Lashley, and Sungjae Im. 
  • As far as distance goes, it’s hard to look at a course like TPC Twins and not suggest that powerful driving won’t help a player’s chances. This is a driver heavy course, and there’s a reason why players such as Matthew Wolff, Cameron Champ, Keith Mitchell, and Jhonattan Vegas, amongst others, have found so much success here. Last year, each of the top-six players on the leaderboard gained against the field in driving distance, but they also gained in good drive percentage. I do not believe that you can bomb away aimlessly, but elite total drivers of the ball will have a massive edge. The one player in this field who ranks top-20 in both good drive percentage and driving distance is Brendan Steele.

 

• Approach
  • 37.9% of strokes gained at TPC Twin Cities have come on approach, which is healthily above the Tour average of 34.8%. That number jumps all the way up to 41.9% historically, so iron play has certainly proven to be even more important at this track than at other PGA Tour courses.
  • Each of the top-15 players on the leaderboard in 2019 gained strokes on approach. Each of the top-12 on the leaderboard in 2020 gained strokes on approach, and last year, 13 of the top-15 on the leaderboard gained strokes on approach.
  • TPC Twin Cities ranked 26th out of 40 courses last year in strokes gained approach difficulty. It has ranked on the easier side in strokes gained approach difficulty each of the last three years, although it did get harder last year.
  • Greens in regulation percentage at TPC Twin Cities has been 72.7% compared to the Tour average of 65.6%, so these greens have been extremely easy to hit. It had the ninth easiest greens to hit on the PGA Tour last year, and each of the last 3 years, it has ranked in the top-10 in easiest greens to hit.
  • TPC Twin Cities has ranked slightly easier than average on both approach difficulty inside 150 yards (27th out of 40 courses) and approach difficulty from over 150 yards (23rd out of 40 courses).
  • 20.7% of approach shots at TPC Twin Cities have come from 175-200 yards, and 24% of approach shots at TPC Twin Cities have come from 200 yards plus. Both of those buckets are healthily above average Tour average, which makes sense when considering the fact that this course features four par threes above 175 yards, five par fours over 450 yards, and three par fives. Add all of this together, and there’s a decent chance that players will have an approach shot of 175 yards plus up to 12 different holes. I’ll admit, the degree of difficulty on these iron shots are low. The greens here are large and flat, but it’s not a short golf courses, and we won’t be seeing a ton of wedge shots here. It should not come as a surprise that worthy long iron players such as Matthew Wolff, Collin Morikawa, Bryson DeChambeau, Cameron Champ, Jhonattan Vegas, Keith Mitchell, and Tony Finau have experienced so much success at TPC Twin Cities. The best long-term players from 175 yards plus have been Hideki Matsuyama, Lucas Glover, Tony Finau, Erik Van Rooyen, Tom Hoge, Brendan Steele, Cameron Champ, Austin Smotherman, Grayson Murray, and Rickie Fowler. 

 

• Around the Green 
  • 12.4% of strokes gained at TPC Twin Cities have come around the green, which is healthily below the Tour average of 14.5%. That number dips all the way down to 10.4% historically.
  • TPC Twin Cities ranked 21st out of 40 courses last year in around the green difficulty, and it has ranked middle of the pack to on the easier side historically.
  • It ranked 30th out of 40 courses last year in around the green difficulty from the fairway, and 22nd out of 40 courses in around the green difficulty from the rough.
  • I really wasn’t able to find much of a correlation between around the green play and success, which is often the case on easy courses with a high greens in regulation percentage. Cameron Champ won here last year losing strokes around the green. Keith Mitchell finished fifth losing strokes around the green. In fact, no one in the top-10 in the leaderboard finished top-15 in strokes gained around the green. In 2019, six of the top-15 on the leaderboard lost strokes around the green.
  • What I did notice however is that TPC Twin Cities ranked sixth out of 40 courses last year in up and down percentage from the bunkers, and inside the top-15 in the previous two years as well. There are a fair amount of bunkers on this course, and I found a small correlation in terms of sand save percentage and success at TPC Twin Cities. If there are any around the green metrics to look at this week, it would be sand saves. The best bunker players in this field over the past year have been Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Aaron Baddeley, Charles Howell III, C.T. Pan, Hideki Matsuyama, Sean O’Hair, Kevin Tway, Michael Thompson, Adam Hadwin, and Ryan Armour. 

 

• Putting 
  • 30.3% of strokes gained at TPC Twin Cities have come putting, which is healthily below the Tour average of 35.6%. That number falls to 28.4% historically, so I would not call this a “putting contest” by any means. Matthew Wolff and Collin Morikawa both made the playoff in 2019 as neutral putters, but Michael Thompson and Cameron Champ both won gaining over seven strokes putting, so there are multiple ways to get it done at TPC Twin Cities.
  • This course ranked 37th out of 40 courses last year in strokes gained putting difficulty, 28th out of 29 courses in 2020, and 35th out of 35 courses in 2019. I would suggest that TPC Twin Cities is pound for pound the easiest course to putt on on the entire PGA Tour. These greens are incredibly pure, and not remotely undulating.
  • TPC Twin Cities ranked 35th out of 40 courses in putting difficulty inside five feet, 31st out of 40 courses in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and 40th out of 40 courses in putting from greater than 15 feet. TPC Twins is also probably the easiest lag putting course on the PGA Tour schedule as well.
  • We’ve definitely seen some very poor putters have some success here, which makes sense given the fact that there is very little tricks or nuance to these greens. With all that being said, there is a high enough greens in regulation percentage that you are going to need to hole putts to keep up. TPC Twin Cities does a decent job of separating players from tee to green, but it’s still the type of course where a hot putter can mask average ball-striking. The best long-term Bent-grass putters in this field have been Brendon Todd, Beau Hossler, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Troy Merritt, Cameron Tringale, Charles Howell III, Brandt Snedeker, Cameron Davis, and Jim Knous. 

 

• Scoring Stats 
  • Due to all of the water, there is a ton of scoring variance at TPC Twin Cities. 17 of 18 holes feature over a 10% birdie rate, and 50% of the holes feature over a 20% birdie rate. On the contrary however, 12 of 18 holes also feature over a 10% bogey rate. Players are inevitably going to suffer from the occasional water ball, so taking advantage of the birdie holes to make up for that will be absolutely crucial. We aren’t going to see a lot of bogey free rounds here, but we are going to see our fare share of birdie streaks. The best players in this field in birdies or better gained over the past year have been Davis Riley, Hideki Matsuyama, Scott Brown, Maverick McNealy, Stewart Cink, Adam Svensson, Danny Lee, Charles Howell III, Tom Hoge, and Nate Lashley. 
  • It will be absolutely imperative to take advantage of the par fives this week, as Top-10 finishers gained far more strokes relative to the field on par fives than they did on par threes and fours. The best par five scorers in this field over the last year have been Matthias Schwab, Cameron Percy, Sahith Theegala, Maverick McNealy, Tony Finau, J.T. Poston, Matthew NeSmith, Hideki Matsuyama, Danny Lee, and Mark Hubbard. 

 

• Comp Courses/Course History 
  • Over a small sample size of only three years, TPC Twin Cities has proven to have some of the least predictive course history. Yes, there is a lot of water on this course, but that doesn’t mean there is a lot of strategy. TPC Twin Cities is fairly straightforward, with very little nuance involved on the putting surfaces. There are certainly players that have been good here in consecutive years, but Cameron Champ and Michael Thompson both missed the cut here the year before winning. The best players at TPC Twin Cities over the last three years have been Adam Hadwin, Tony Finau, Cameron Tringale, Bo Hoag, Charles Howell III, Hideki Matsuyama, Brice Garnett, Brian Stuard, Brandt Snedeker, and Chez Reavie. 
  • It’s hard to say that Arnold Palmer really has any defining features as an architect, but in terms of PGA Tour courses, he has also designed Bay Hill and TPC Boston. I actually do think the latter has a lot in common with TPC Twin Cities in the sense that both feature generous landing areas, difficult bunkers, bent-grass greens, and yield low scores. The best players at TPC Boston have been Kevin Stadler, Hideki Matsuyama, Emiliano Grillo, Seung-Yul Noh, Fabian Gomez, Harry Higgs, Kevin Chappell, C.T. Pan, Rickie Fowler, and Cameron Davis. 
  • I’ve already alluded to how TPC Twin Cities reminds me of a Florida course in many ways. The big difference between this course and Florida courses is the agronomy, but courses like TPC Sawgrass, PGA National, and the Concession are all both score-able tests that feature high variance due to the amount of water. There are big numbers at every turn, but aggressive play is rewarded as well. The best players in this field at TPC Sawgrass have been Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, Bo Van Pelt, Doug Ghim, Erik Van Rooyen, Ryan Moore, Brendan Steele, Tom Hoge, David Hearn, and Dylan Frittelli. 
  • Here’s what 2020 3M Open champion Michael Thompson had to say about the comparison between TPC Twin Cities and PGA National, “It is, very much like PGA National this course. You know what shots you have to hit. There’s no if, and or but about it, you’ve just got to step up and hit the shot, execute.” Thompson is right. People mistake water for strategy, when in reality, a course with a lot of water actually removes some strategy from the equation. Courses like PGA National and TPC Twin Cities are simply about execution. Both are point A to point B golf courses. You have to hit the ball in certain spots. If you hit those spots, you will be fine, but if you do not have a ton of confidence in where your ball is going, you will have your fare share of penalty strokes. The best players in this field at PGA National have been Rickie Fowler, Lucas Glover, Sungjae Im, Brendan Steele, Wyndham Clark, George McNeill, Sam Ryder, Brandon Hagy, Ryan Palmer, and C.T. Pan. 
  • While these courses do not feature half as much water, TPC Deere Run and Detroit Golf Club are two other Bent-grass courses with easier than average scoring conditions. I actually think that TPC Twin Cities is inherently harder than both of those courses because there is far more trouble from tee to green, whereas both TPC Deere Run and Detroit Golf fall provide less resistance from tee to green and fall more-so in the putting contest category. Still many of the same players seem to find success on both of these tracks. Bryson, Morikawa, and Cameron Champ, amongst others, have all experienced success at both TPC Twin Cities and TPC Deere Run. Bryson, Wolff, Cameron Davis, and Adam Hadwin have all been great at both TPC Twin Cities and TPC Deere Run as well.
  • The best players in this field at TPC Deere have been Ryan Moore, Adam Schenk, Maverick McNealy, Scott Brown, Dylan Frittelli, Chris Stroud, Charles Howell III, Patton Kizzire, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Emiliano Grillo. 
  • The best players in this field at Detroit Golf Club have been Nate Lashley, Cameron Tringale, Maverick McNealy, Brandon Hagy, Troy Merritt, Hideki Matsuyama, Doc Redman, Brian Stuard, Sungjae Im, and Roger Sloan. 

 

Model Inputs 

• Off the Tee (21%)
  • Strokes Gained Off the Tee (8%)
  • Good Drives Gained (8%)
  • Driving Distance (5%)
• Approach (30%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (20%)
  • Long-term Proximity 175-200 yards (4%)
  • Long-term Proximity 200 yards plus (6%)
• Around the Green (5%) 
  • Sand Saves (5%)
• Putting (12%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Bent-grass (12%)
• Scoring Stats (15%)
  • Par 5 Scoring (5%)
  • Birdies or Better Gained (10%)
• Comp Courses/Course History (17%)
  • TPC Twin Cities (5%)
  • PGA National (4%)
  • TPC Boston (2%)
  • TPC Sawgrass (2%)
  • TPC Deere Run (2%)
  • Detroit Golf Club (2%)

Top 20

1. Tony Finau
2. Charles Howell III
3. Cameron Davis
4. Hideki Matsuyama
5. Sungjae Im
6. Adam Hadwin
7. Davis Riley
8. Mark Hubbard
9. Cameron Tringale
10. Adam Svensson
11. Tom Hoge
12. C.T. Pan
13. J.T. Poston
14. Maverick McNealy
15. Stewart Cink
16. Brendan Steele
17. Chris Gotterup
18. Lanto Griffin
19. Tyler Duncan
20. Matthew NeSmith

Most over-valued based on expected price: Maverick McNealy (14th), Sahith Theegala (23rd), Christiaan Bezuidenhout (29th), Chez Reavie (63rd), Cameron Champ (64th), Jason Day (76th).

Most under-valued based on expected price: Charles Howell III (2nd), Cameron Davis (3rd), Mark Hubbard (8th), Adam Svensson (10th), Tom Hoge (11th), C.T. Pan (12th), Lanto Griffin (18th), Austin Smotherman (21st).