Greetings, and welcome to a brand new weekly feature on RickRunGood.com. My name is Andy Lack, I host the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show, as well as the Scramble with Rick, every Tuesdays and Fridays on the RickRunGood YouTube page and 300 Yards to Unknown Podcast Feed. I am incredibly excited to provide an in-depth course breakdown for each weekly PGA Tour stop. I’ve been able to find my lane by looking at golf courses from a deeper lens, via architecture, agronomy, and so much more. Every single Monday, I will break down absolutely everything you need to know about the weekly PGA Tour venue before you make your bets and DraftKings lineups. So without further ago, let’s dive in!
The Basics
- Course: Vidanta Vallarta
- Location: Vallarta, Mexico
- Designer: Greg Norman
- Length: Par 71; 7,456 yards
- Hazards: 6 Lakes, water comes into play on 11 different holes
- Fairways: Paspalum
- Rough: Paspalum
- Greens: Paspalum
For the first time all season, we are traveling to a never before seen course on the PGA Tour. Weeks like this make it very difficult to go through my regular process of breaking down how previous tournaments have played out, but I also believe these are the weeks that I possess my greatest edge. No, we do not have any stats from PGA Tour competition, but we can still model out how we expect this course to play if we are willing to do the legwork. There’s not a ton of information online about Vidanta Vallarta, but here are some of the key takeaways I had from my research.
The first thing that we should acknowledge about Vidanta is that it is a Paspalum course. Paspalum is an extremely slow and sticky surface. It’s the grass that we often see in tropic climates because it can withstand heat very well. A few examples of some of the Paspalum PGA Tour courses are Coco Beach, Corales, El Camaleon, and TPC Kuala Lampur. There are certain players that might fit a slower surface better, and I’ll expand on that theory when we dive into the stats.
The second thing that jumped out to me when going hole by hole on google earth was the amount of bunkers. Vidanta has over 100 bunkers, and Greg Norman tends to over-bunker his courses to begin with, so this is far from a surprise. Water comes into play on holes 1, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 14, 15, and 17. Water is a prominent feature on six consecutive holes (6-11) during the middle of the round.
Vidanta has four Par 5s, which range from 548 to 637 yards, and five Par 3s, which range from 174 to 226 yards. Five Par 4s measure over 450 yards, and three Par 4s measure over 500 yards. Vidanta is a long golf course, which is compounded by the fact that players will see very little run-out on Paspalum fairways, and this course does not play at altitude. Tournament organizers appear to be making a concerted effort to make this course harder. For resort guests, Vidanta is a Par 73. For PGA Tour professionals, it has been changed to a Par 71. The 4th hole, previously a Par 5, will now play as a 520 yard Par 4. The 16th hole, which was also previously a Par 5, will now play as a 505 yard Par 4. Nine different holes were lengthened, and in total, the course will now play over 200 yards longer than its listed scorecard for resort guests.
Generally, when courses make a conspicuous attempt to add length, it’s a sign that they know the pros will tear it up. The added length will prevent this tournament from being won at 25 to 30 under Par, but providing anything crazy with the weather, we should still expect our fare share of birdies. Along with the length, wind will likely be the greatest defense that Vidanta has. It is an extremely wide open course off the tee, and despite the fact that water hazards loom, we should still expect to see most players bomb away with driver.
My assumption is that Vidanta will play very similar to Coco Beach, the host of the Puerto Rico Open, and Corales, the host of the Corales Punta Cana Championship. Both courses are over 7,400 yards, wide open off the tee, full of bunkers, and feature Paspalum throughout. Those tournaments are typically won between 15 and 22 under, and I would expect similar this week. We must remember that this course was not designed for professional play, it was designed for resort play, and Paspalum is not a surface that can be sped up to typical PGA Tour standards. There are certain places that organizers could put pin locations, but ultimately, the best they can do to protect par is beef up the distance and change Par 5s into Par 4s. Is there a universe where we get a ton of wind and it plays far more difficult than expected? Of course, and be sure to check back in later in the week for my final DFS thoughts article, where I will do a full breakdown of the weather.
Without further ado, let’s dive into the stats.
- Off the Tee
- I’ve already alluded to the extremely generous landing areas at Vidanta, which leads me to believe that distance is far more important than accuracy here.
- Longer players should possess an advantage here, as the course is already long to begin with, and there will be little run-out on these fairways. This is not to say that shorter players can’t compete here, but there are certain courses on the schedule where the longer players are starting on second base, and Vidanta might fall into that category. It’s an extremely driver heavy course with little penalty for inaccuracy. Players can absolutely bomb away here. The longest players in this field are Cameron Champ, Joseph Bramlett, Brandon Hagy, Trey Mullinax, Wyndham Clark, Peter Uihlein, Jon Rahm, Seth Reeves, Curtis Thompson, and Callum Tarren.
- Approach
- What happens on courses with extremely wide fairways? The emphasis falls on the second shot. My guess is that mid to long iron play will be absolutely crucial this week. Five Par 3s measure over 170 yards, five Par 4s measure over 450 yards, three Par 4s measure over 500 yards, and at least three of the Par 5s are reachable with a long iron or fairway wood second shot. For this reason, I will be looking heavily this week at approach play from over 175 yards.
- The best players in this field in long-term weighted proximity from 175 yards plus are Daniel Berger, Jon Rahm, Charley Hoffman, Austin Smotherman, Kurt Kitayama, Cameron Champ, Dough Ghim, Taylor Moore, Tony Finau, and Sebastian Munoz.
- Around the Green
- I do not expect there to be a low greens in regulation percentage this week. The greens appear to be pretty large, and I would not imagine that players will have to rely a whole lot on their short game this week. If they are having to rely on their short game, chances are they are not a factor in the tournament to begin with.
- Slow greens also make chipping easier. Just ask Viktor “The Prince of Paspalum” Hovland. On slower greens, players have to worry less about undulation and speed. Slower greens tend to remove an element of touch from the equation. For this reason, I will not really be looking at strokes gained around the green at all.
- With that being said, I do believe that it is worth examining bunker play. There are over 100 bunkers on this course. Most of the time if a player misses a green, chances are they are in the sand. The best bunker players in this field are C.T. Pan, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Michael Thompson, Seung-Yul Noh, Brendon Todd, Kevin Tway, Sung Kang, Kevin Na, Charles Howell III and Joshua Creel.
- Putting
- When I was in Mexico over Christmas, I played golf every day on Paspalum. For someone who is used to rock hard, Bent-grass greens, it was a challenging adjustment. If you are used to putting on fast greens and are more of a “die” putter, it’s likely you are not a huge fan of Paspalum. I’m sure the opposite applies as well. There are likely players that prefer slower greens too.
- I think the reason why we see more bad putters play well on Paspalum is less about speed and more about the fact that Paspalum greens are generally pretty flat. By the way, Augusta has the most undulating and difficult greens on the PGA Tour, and we see bad putters perform well there all the time. Ultimately, it’s just about personal preference, so I wanted to identify players that seemed to thrive more on slower greens. We don’t have any specific metrics from the other Paspalum courses, but courses such as Kapalua, Chapultapec, and all courses in the Open Championship rota, amongst others, tend to feature slower greens. The best putters in this field on slower greens have been Matt Jones, Andrew Putnam, Brendon Todd, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Michael Thompson, Jonas Blixt, Mark Hubbard, Peter Malnati, Seung-Yul Noh and David Hearn.
- Scoring Stats
- On any course with four Par 5s, I always want to identify the best Par 5 scorers. The players in this field who have gained the most strokes on Par 5s over the past year have been Jon Rahm, Mark Hubbard, Gary Woodland, Robert Streb, Robert Garrigus, Trey Mullinax, Sahith Theegala, Chad Ramey, Matt Jones and Vincent Whaley.
- As I’ve already mentioned, I believe there is a very good chance that the champion will need to get to 20-under par this week. The players in this field who make the most birdies are Jon Rahm, Davis Riley, Chad Ramey, Danny Lee, Scott Brown, Vincent Whaley, Sebastian Munoz, Kevin Na, Lanto Griffin and Satoshi Kodaira.
- Similarly, there are certain players that have an affinity for easier scoring conditions. Course set-up completely affects strategy. It is no coincidence that certain players always seem to pop up on easier courses, just like certain players always seem to pop up on harder courses. The players in this field who have gained the most strokes per round in easy scoring conditions are Jon Rahm, Daniel Berger, Charles Howell III, Lanto Griffin, Doug Ghim, Kevin Na, Aaron Wise, Abraham Ancer, Hayden Buckley, and Sahith Theegala.
- Finally, I also spent some time looking at how players have performed on longer golf courses. Outside of wind, sheer length is the greatest defense that Vidanta has. The players in this field who have gained the most strokes per round on long golf courses are Jon Rahm, Patrick Reed, Kevin Chappell, Matt Jones, Charley Hoffman, Tony Finau, Aaron Baddeley, Gary Woodland, Vaughn Taylor and Chad Ramey.
- Comp Courses
- As previously mentioned, Corales and Coco Beach are both over 7,400 yard Paspalum courses with little trouble off the tee that generally require a winning score between 15 and 22 under.
- The best players in this field at Corales have been Alex Smalley, Chad Ramey, Ben Martin, Nate Lashley, Kramer Hickok, David Lipsky, Adam Long, Kelly Kraft, Matt Jones, and Graeme McDowell.
- The best players in this field at Coco Beach have been Brandon Wu, Nate Lashley, Emiliano Grillo, Aaron Baddeley, Adam Schenk, Brice Garnett, Andrew Putnam, Max McGreevy, Vincent Whaley and Daniel Berger
- TPC Kuala Lampur (host of the CIMB Classic from 2013 to 2018) is another Paspalum course that favors distance over accuracy. I like this one a little bit less because it is only 7,000 yards and is completely protected from wind. Winners have gotten to 26 under at TPC Kuala Lampur, so it plays a little easier than I would expect Vidanta to play. The best players in this field at TPC Kuala Lampur have been Kevin Na, Aaron Baddeley, Sung Kang, Charles Howell III, Gary Woodland, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Abraham Ancer, Kevin Chappell, Emiliano Grillo and Austin Cook.
- The most “obvious” comp would be El Camaleon, host of the World Wide Technologies Mayakoba Classic, because it is another Greg Norman designed Paspalum course in Mexico. I would be careful with this one however. El Camaleon is only a touch over 6,800 yards, and it is extremely narrow off the tee, with a large penalty for inaccuracy. Players do not need to hit driver there at all.
- Corales, Coco Beach, and TPC Kuala Lampur are the only courses I will be examining heavily, but I don’t have a problem with looking at a few other long-ish, wide open, driver heavy, easy courses such as TPC Deere Run, Detroit Golf Club, and TPC Craig Ranch.
Model Inputs
- Off the Tee (7%)
- Driving Distance (7%)
- Approach (29%)
- Strokes Gained Approach (17%)
- Proximity 175-200 yards (5%)
- Proximity 200+ yards (7%)
- Around the Green (6%)
- Sand Saves (6%)
- Putting (14%)
- Recent Putting (7%)
- Strokes Gained Putting on Slow Greens (7%)
- Scoring Stats (30%)
- Par 5 Scoring (7%)
- Birdies or Better Gained (10%)
- Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring Conditions (8%)
- Strokes Gained Total: Courses over 7,400 yards (5%)
- Comp Courses (14%)
- Corales Punta Cana (5%)
- Coco Beach (5%)
- TPC Kuala Lampur (4%)
Model Top 20
- Jon Rahm
- Gary Woodland
- Daniel Berger
- Lanto Griffin
- Tony Finau
- Cameron Tringale
- Kevin Na
- Chris Kirk
- Vaughn Taylor
- Pat Perez
- Chad Ramey
- Mark Hubbard
- Aaron Wise
- Matt Jones
- Danny Lee
- Wesley Bryan
- Aaron Rai
- Charles Howell III
- Alex Smalley
- Patrick Rodgers
Most over-valued based on expected price: Abraham Ancer (22nd), Christiaan Bezuidenhout (23rd), Carlos Ortiz (43rd), Davis Riley (60th), Patrick Reed (103rd), Kevin Streelman (112th)
Most under-valued based on expected price: Lanto Griffin (4th), Vaughn Taylor (9th), Pat Perez (10th), Mark Hubbard (12th), Danny Lee (15th), Wesley Bryan (16th), Charles Howell III (18th), Alex Smalley (19th), Patrick Rodgers (20th), Scott Brown (21st).
