By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the betting preview every Tuesday with Rick. If you are more into written content, I post a detailed course breakdown on Mondays and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

After just returning from Palm Springs, I can assure you, these conditions are accurate and I would not expect them to change much throughout the week. Most of the time, Palm Springs provides absolutely ideal golf weather, with the occasional pocket of wind. With all players teeing off in succession on each course, I would not recommend any form of wave stack this week. If you want to play course stacks for showdown purposes, thats an entirely different conversation, but I won’t be paying much attention to the weather this week. There will certainly be some wind gusts on Friday morning, but I wouldn’t know how to utilize that information into favoring certain golfers. For what it’s worth, the gusts continue into the afternoon as well. Still, my advice this week would be to not simply create and play an edge just for the sake of creating an edge. Sometimes if there’s nothing there, there’s nothing there.

Core 4: The four players that I will be most over-weight on relative to the field

• Brian Harman, $9,300 (9:58 Nicklaus Tournament Course) (Projected ownership: 12.6%): I took a hard pass on the Brian Harman wagon last week, and it’s a shame to see so many people hop off before the miracle happens. Actually, it’s not a shame. It’s quite beautiful in fact. I was forced to listen to reasons upon reasons from content providers about why the Sony was the week it would all finally come together for the University of Georgia stand-out. My biggest question to those who touted Harman at $9.7K and bet him at 20/1 is… what changed? If you played a $9.7K Harman, or bet him outright, my guess is that you are disappointed in his T32 finish where he gained 3.7 strokes off the tee, lost 1.8 on approach, gained 2.0 around the green and lost 0.2 putting. I had zero problems with the result, as he continues to dominate off the tee despite below average distance, and pile up top-35 finishes at an elite rate. The 35-year-old now returns to a course where he has put together six top-25 finishes, including three top-10s, and a third-place finish last year. There is far less pressure on him to win this week, as he works as a second (or even a THIRD) man in. I love a balanced build this week as I believe the $9K range is quite strong. Will Zalatoris, Tom Kim, and Si Woo Kim are all options that I nearly slid in, but Harman is my favorite of the bunch.

• Cameron Davis, $8,800 (9:14 AM Stadium Course) (Projected ownership: 15.8%): You can pretty much slot Cam Davis onto my betting card every week at this point, but the only reason why he is not featured more prominently in this column is because the secret is out on the young Australian. Ownership is a concern for me this week, and I have a dark premonition that he is a candidate to catch some late steam. The only reason for optimism is that he was projected at around 18% last week, and he did come in a touch below that. I would be extremely bummed if he crossed the 18% threshold, but that would be far from a reason to move off him. Just like Harman, Davis also finished third at this event last year and is coming off a rather nondescript 32nd place finish as well, where he gained 4.5 strokes off the tee, 2.9 strokes on approach, lost 0.8 strokes around the green, and lost three strokes putting. The former Rocket Mortgage Classic winner continues to hit the cover off the ball, and I am completely enamored by the fact that he ranks top-seven in both birdies or better gained and opportunities gained. He remains one of the best drivers of the ball in the world, one of the best mid to short iron players in the world, and he ranks second in average strokes gained per round at the Stadium Course. Popularity is my only concern, but Davis is my pick to win the tournament for the second week in a row.

• J.T. Poston, $8,000 (9:58 AM Nicklaus Tournament Course) (Projected ownership: 8.7%): I absolutely never play J.T. Poston, but I actually believe this is an ideal spot for him. Listeners of my content this week are probably surprised I don’t have Adam Hadwin in this spot, and he easily could have been. I still am playing a ton of Hadwin, and at $8.2K and 11-14% ownership, I still believe that this is a phenomenal spot for him. I simply have concerns about Davis and Harman catching some late steam, so I wanted to provide readers with a true outstanding leverage play north of $8K. The Postman is coming off a strong T21 at the Sony Open where he gained three strokes off the tee, 1.7 strokes on approach, 0.6 around the green, and 0.4 putting. While he has been nothing to write home about at this event, with multiple high-end finishes at TPC Twin Cities, TPC Sawgrass, TPC Scottsdale, and TPC Summerlin, I have every reason to believe that he has all the tools to figure out this three course rotation. The two-time PGA Tour winner is the type of player that I want on my side in a track meet, and while once only known as an elite putter, Poston has improved markedly as a ball-striker. By the way, he’s a far better golfer than your 13% 8.7K Andrew Putnam.

• Keith Mitchell, $7,700 (8:41 AM Stadium Course) (Projected ownership: 4.7%): If you’re noticing a theme, I love players this week that got reps at the Sony Open, played well enough to show me something, but are still coming in under-valued. Anyone who reads this column regularly knows that a 4% Mitchell when he was 15% last week is right up my alley. Mitchell hit the ball well last week at Waialae, simply missing the cut on the number because he lost 3.2 strokes putting. The real Keith Mitchell showed up on Friday however, firing a 66 and almost battling his way all the way back inside the cut-line. I know he’s got great course history at Waialae, but on paper, I actually prefer him at the American Express, which I believe will provide him with the opportunity to swing away more freely off the tee. Similar to Poston, while he hasn’t seemed to figure out the Stadium Course yet, multiple high end finishes at TPC Scottsdale and TPC Twin Cities leave me feeling optimistic about his chances. Not to mention the fact that the ownership is a slam dunk.

Ownership Report 

• $10K: There are four players in the $10K range this week, and not a single one has emerged with concerning ownership. I have Jon Rahm leading the pack at around 20-23%, but if you want to play the grumpy Spaniard this week, his number is far from untenable number. There are too many solid options up top and in the $9K range for groupthink to really take over. Next up is Tony Finau, who I have coming in at a very manageable 17.5%, which is more than fair given his form and history at this course. Scottie Scheffler is next at 16%, which feels about right. Scheffler is always under-owned, and he is always under-owned compared to Rahm when they are in the same price range. Finally, Xander Schauffele appears to be sub-10%, which feels a bit irresponsible. This is clearly all injury related, despite the fact that Xander’s MRI was negative and he was very up front with reporters that he was healthy and good to go. Still, I understand the concern as well, and as of now, he’s not in my pool. For me personally, this has less to do with the injury and more to do with his course fit (two missed cuts in two appearances, zero starts since 2018) and recent form. I don’t have the balls, but considering price and ownership, Xander might end being the best play on the entire slate.

• $9K: Of the eight players in the $9K range, I do not believe a single one will cross the 20% ownership threshold, and two players will be in the single digits. Let’s start with the Cameron Young, who I believe will be the highest owned player in this range at 19.8%. I love Cameron Young as much as the next guy, but this feels a bit much to me. My best explanation is that he’s a popular bet, and DraftKings players play who they bet. They still have a very difficult time separating the two and understanding that in betting, you are playing against the Sportsbook, and in DraftKings, you are playing against other people. After Young, I have Will Zalatoris coming in at a robust 17%. I really like me some Wily Z this week, and I’m so pleased with how the top of the board has shaken out, that I do believe I will probably get there on him. After Zalatoris, I have Tom Kim coming in at 15.8%. He broke the hearts of many last week, and it does make sense that his ownership has been slashed in half. I wish it was even a little bit lower, but Tom Kim could murder your mother in cold blood and his fanbase would still be writing love letters to his jail cell. After Kim, Sungjae Im, Brian Harman, and Sam Burns will all fall between 14 and 10%, with Sungjae on the higher end, and Burns on the lower end. I thought that there would be far less of a gap between Burns and Young this week, and I would even argue the course is probably a better fit for Burns, but it’s a “What Have You Done for Me Lately” game, and Burns’ simply hasn’t been popping enough. Aaron Wise and Si Woo Kim will both comfortably be in the single digits and I actually really like both of them. I feel guilty that I have failed the Gods of Leverage by not playing Xander, so it’s very likely that I will have at least one of Wise or Si Woo. I’d argue that Wise is over-priced in this field, but I am on him nearly every week, and I don’t have any strong disagreements with his course fit. Si Woo’s win last week wasn’t a fluke spike putting week either. In fact, he didn’t even gain a full stroke putting on the greens. The 25-year-old has now gained over eight (!!!) strokes on approach in back to back starts, and he now returns to a course where he is number one in average strokes gained per round at the Stadium Course. I’m not afraid of playing guys off a win, as Tony Finau delivered for this column at the Rocket Mortgage at low ownership directly after winning the 3M Open. If you’re smart, you’re taking a long and hard look at all three of Xander, Wise, and (Si Woo) Kim.

• $8K: Tom Hoge at 19.5% might be the only irresponsible play on the board this week, and I have a hard time really even faulting anyone. I absolutely love Hoge this week, and I bet him to win. Under no circumstances should he ever be priced below Andrew Putnam either. Still, I would recommend going all in (over 50% exposure) if you plan on utilizing Hoge at that ownership. After that, Cameron Davis and Taylor Montgomery both should be in the 15% ballpark. I would take Davis over Montgomery ten times out ten, and my thoughts on Davis this week are well documented. After Davis and Montgomery, I have Andrew Putnam, K.H. Lee, and Adam Hadwin all coming in between 10 and 14%. I prefer Hadwin of that group by a mile, and he was almost featured in my core four. In prior years, Hadwin would have higher ownership than Hoge, but the community is getting sharper as it regards to recent form vs. course history. I actually think this has swung too far in the other direction this week. Hadwin is a walking top-10 at this event, is in great form, and is coming in at an extremely palatable price and ownership. Sahith Theegala, Wyndham Clark, J.T. Poston, and Taylor Pendrith should all come in comfortably in the single digits. At least one, if not multiple of these players ought to be considered. I like three of them!

• $7K: I’m really proud of how the community has treated this range this week. In terms of ownership, this actually might be the most spread out I have seen a $7K range in recent memory. I have a whopping two players coming in currently in the double digits: Alex Smalley, and Ben Griffin, and even those two will not cross the 15% threshold. When is the last time we’ve seen such a massive $7K range with only two players in the double digits?! Surely, one or two more players will emerge as we get closer to lock, but when I say “emerge,” that is not me suggesting that any player will big time steam and come in above 15%. Here are the players I have in the high single digits that have the potential to crack 10%: Jason Day, Thomas Detry, Chris Kirk, Will Gordon, Matthew NeSmth, and Ben Taylor. No one else really to worry about here!

• $6K: As always, there is absolutely no one to be concerned about down here. If a player clear 5%, that’s generally considered a lot these days in the $6K range. I do have Davis Thompson (5.02%) and Justin Lower (5.11%) clearing the 5% threshold, but even that could be generous. Like every week, I will mention “buzzy” names down here that should garner more ownership than their peers (we are talking about the difference between 0.75% and 3%): the aforementioned Thomas and Lower, Kevin Yu, Sam Ryder, Stewart Cink, Austin Eckroat, and Aaron Baddeley. Choose your own adventure down here.