By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the betting preview every Tuesday with Rick. If you are more into written content, I post a detailed course breakdown on Mondays and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

While we do not have a super forecast available yet for Saturday, there is nothing short of a developing situation regarding the weather. Once again, the AT&T National Pebble Beach Pro-Am features a three course rotation with a 54 hole cut, so all players will get a stab at Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, and Monterrey Peninsula Country Club, before the top-60 and ties will play their final round at Pebble Beach. Thursday looks extremely mild, yielding a slight edge to those that finish their round for prior to 3:00 PM. Friday features a few morning early morning gusts, but the consistent wind speed still remains extremely low. Saturday is where things really start to get a bit more hairy. There is a pocket between 1:00 PM and 4:00 PM where the wind is blowing between 16 and 20 mph, with gusts between 23 and 28 mph. That is some extremely provocative stuff, and I would certainly not wish conditions upon those who are trying to grind their way towards a made cut that afternoon. In a perfect world, I would like my players to be playing Spyglass Hill on Saturday, as the Robert Trent Jones track is hands down the least exposed to wind when placed in comparison to MPCC and Pebble Beach, The only issue is that the vast majority of the best players will be playing Pebble Beach on Saturday, because that is when the tournament is on CBS! Thus, the weather this week comes most to play at the bottom, as I will jam in as many “Spyglass on Saturday” players below 7.5K as I can. The only two players above $8K that will be playing Spyglass on Saturday are Andrew Putnam and Nick Taylor!

Core 4: The four players that I will be most over-weight on relative to the field.

• Viktor Hovland, $10,300 (Projected Ownership: 24.8%) (Pebble Beach on Saturday): I spoke about this at greater lengths on the podcast this week, but I do not see a whole lot of sense in fading the entire group of Spieth, Hovland, and Fitzpatrick. Those are the three best players in the tournament by a healthy margin, and I simply believe you are giving up far too much win equity to get cute just for the sake of getting cute. It’s not as if any of them are coming in at unpalatable numbers either. I’m rocking with both Spieth and Hovland as heavy features in my player pool, but I’ll use this section to highlight the young Norwegian, who is remarkably still searching for his first career victory on mainland U.S. soil. The World No. 11 not only won the 2018 U.S. Amateur at Pebble Beach (tired narrative, I get it), but he also gained 12.6 strokes from tee to green as an amateur at the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach. Only Brooks Koepka hit the ball better than Hovland that week, and if the 25-year-old had been able to putt to at least field average (Brooks lost strokes putting as well), that U.S. Open was his for the taking. Coming off a win at the Hero World Challenge and a strong ball-striking performance at the Sentry TOC, Hovland is quietly in stronger form than many would lead you to believe, and this is the perfect spot for him to get his season really going in the right direction.

• Keith Mitchell, $9,400 (Projected Ownership: 11.6%) (Pebble Beach on Saturday): Similar to Viktor Hovland and Davis Riley, Keith Mitchell is another player who has performed well at Pebble Beach despite my conventional wisdom not feeling that the iconic venue is his type of course. The Tennessee native finished 12th here last season, where he gained 4.7 strokes ball-striking in two rounds at Pebble Beach. While my biggest concern with Mitchell is a lack of a proven track record on Poa greens, he remains one of the most trustable long-term putters in this field inside 10 feet. It’s only a matter of time before it all comes together for Mitchell in a singular week. All four of my core four this week are all players that I have made predictions in my season preview content would win this year. All four are also under-owned and under-priced this week, and in events like this, I am always looking to identify under-valued talent and hope that everything comes together. Mitchell is coming off a rock-solid T22 at the American Express where he gained over two strokes both off the tee and on approach in two rounds at the Stadium Course. As one of the 10 to 12 best ball-strikers in this field, I don’t even believe the 31-year-old will need to rely that much on his flat-stick to find himself relevant at Pebble over the weekend.

• Taylor Moore, $8,300 (Project Ownership: 8,1%) (MPCC on Saturday): With so many DFS darlings between $9K and $7.5K this week, Taylor Moore appears to be slipping through the cracks. I remain exceptionally high on his talent. While I’ve already stated my concerns about Keith Mitchell’s putting upside, I felt the need to over compensate and identify a player that I have zero doubt I can rely on on some of the trickiest putting surfaces on Tour. The 29-year-old finished 16th at this event last year, gaining strokes in all four major categories, including +2.7 putting. Over his short career, Poa has been far away his strongest surface, as he also gained 2.9 strokes putting at both Silverado and Riviera. Coming off an 11th-place finish at Torrey Pines where he gained strokes in all four major categories, including over 1.5 strokes in both ball-striking categories in two rounds at Torrey Pines South, I expect Moore to continue his momemtum on the West Coast swing and deliver once again at an extremely delectable ownership number.

• Davis Riley, $7,800 (Projected Ownership: 7.5%) (MPCC on Saturday): This is quite simply a brand play for me, and much of the same reasoning I used for Emiliano Grillo last week can be applied to Davis Riley in this spot. The 26-year-old opened up the fall swing at a cool $9,400 at the Fortinet Championship, which featured nearly identical strength of field metrics as this event, where he is $7,800 and sub 8%. I am completely on board with the fact that Riley’s play hasn’t been up to his standards, but he still made six of seven cuts this fall swing, with three top-30 finishes, including a 19th at the Sanderson Farms and a 21st at the Mayakoba. On the heels of a solid ball-striking performance at Torrey Pines where he fell victim to a shoddy flat-stick, Riley new returns to Pebble Beach, a course that he made a quarter-finals run at in the 2018 U.S. Amateur. I love the amount of talent I’m getting with Riley as a third man in in my Spieth and Hovland lineups, and I’m expecting a big week out of the Mississippi native.

Chalk Report: My ownership projections for every single price range curtesy of mid-day Wednesday.

• $10K: There are just four players in the $10K range this week: Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Tom Hoge, and I have all four falling between 18 and 26% this week, with Fitzpatrick (25.7%) and Hovland (24.8%) on the higher end, Spieth (20.6%) in the middle, and Hoge (18.8%) on the lower end. The Fitzpatrick and Spieth numbers surprise me the most, as despite shoddy recent form, I would have still expected the course history king to be the most popular of the bunch. Spieth has proven time and again that he can show up to Pebble Beach and perform, regardless of any incoming form. Hoge is easily the worst player of this foursome, but the reason he won Pebble Beach last year is because he was the best in this field at generating birdie opportunities for himself inside 150 yards, and one year later, nothing has changed. An argument could certainly be made that Fitzpatrick is the best player in the field, but my numbers suggest that he is actually the worst course fit of the bunch. I don’t love the fact that Pebble completely de-values off the tee play, which has quietly emerged as one of Fitzpatrick’s strongest abilities.

• $9K: The $9K range certainly presents some interesting opportunities. Unsurprisingly, Maverick “the Prince of Pebble” McNealy is the most popular option in this range, coming in right around 20%. I understand the fact that he’s comfortable on Poa and has a great deal of familiarity with this course, but McNealy remains an easy pass at this price and ownership. After Mav, Seamus Power, an extremely popular betting option, should come in next at around 17%. Andrew Putnam, Justin Rose, Keith Mitchell, and Joel Dahmen will all come in between 10 and 15%, with Putnam and Rose on the higher end, and Mitchell and Dahmen on the lower end. I have Matt Kuchar at just a shade under 10%, and Denny McCarthy as the clear leverage play of the bunch at 7.1%.

• $8K: The $8K range gets a bit larger, and here is where we really begin to see a lack of responsibility with some of these numbers. Ben Griffin has emerged as unfriendly chalk at around 15%. I’ve heard some suggest that he will be closer to 20%, but I have enough faith in the general public that such will not be the case. I certainly understand the argument for Griffin, but is he three times more likely to perform Taylor Pendrith, Kevin Kisner, and Dean Bermuester? Don’t get me wrong, the ball-striking numbers for Pendrith at Torrey Pines were aggressively unsavory, but it’s interesting to see folks hop off a player who has emerged as a DFS darling so quickly. I’m a bit more understanding of the low numbers surrounding Kisner and Burmester, who both present their fare share of questions entering the week. I’ve already identified the high and low ends, so let’s discuss those who fall in the middle. Thomas Detry (11.1%), Alex Smalley (13.5%), David Lipsky (10.7%), and Nick Taylor (11.8%) will all fall in the low double digits. Taylor Moore (8.1%), Trey Mullinax (8.3%), and Erik Van Rooyen (7.8%) will all fall between 5 and 10%.

• $7K: A topic covered on my podcast this week was the trend towards less offensive $7K chalk, and I do believe that to be the case this week as well. I would be surprised if a single player in the $7K range crosses 15%, but here would be the candidates: Nick Hardy (10.9%), Lanto Griffin (10.6%), Russell Knox (12.5%), Matthew NeSmith (13.4%). Those are the only four players I feel comfortable suggesting will be in the double digits. There is a mountain of players that I have between 7.5 and 10%, including, but not limited to, Nate Lashey, Brendon Todd, Robby Shelton, Davis Riley, Will Gordon, Greyson Sigg, Justin Suh, Ben Taylor, Kevin Streelman, etc. One or two of those players will definitely cross into double digits, but I would be fairly surprised if anyone caught enough late steam to come in at a shocking number that is over 5% north of their standard projection.

• $6K: I spoke at length on my podcast about the argument for jamming two of Spieth, Hovland, and Fitzpatrick in the same lineup, but DFS players appear to be fairly spooked down here. I would argue that this is certainly one of the events that incorporates a great deal of variance, and given the top-heavy nature of the field, I believe that fantasy players should be spending more time down here than they currently appear to be. I’d be fairly shocked if any player in this range crosses the 5% threshold, but here are the players that will garner more attention than their peers: Jimmy Walker, Peter Malnati, Henrik Norlander, Chesson Hadley, and Ryan Armour,

Best of luck this week – AL