By Andy Lack

Andy’s Final DraftKings Thoughts for the 2023 Farmer’s Insurance Open

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the betting preview every Tuesday with Rick. If you are more into written content, I post a detailed course breakdown on Mondays and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

So there appears to be a lot of discussion about the weather this week, as Wednesday looks completely benign and Thursday appears to be absolutely brutal. It seems that most are leaning towards the option of having their players get the easy conditions on the much harder South Course on Wednesday, and face the far easier North Course in much easier conditions on Thursday. I’m not even sure I agree with this sentiment in general about players to facing the easier course in tough conditions as a clear advantage. I think it completely depends on the player. There is so much pressure to go low on Wednesday if you catch the North course on the easy day, and often despite tougher conditions, players usually raise their games and have an inherent ceiling on what they would shoot any way on a difficult golf course. In my opinion, it’s a total coin flip on what is actually going to work out for people. My plans is to divide my lineups equally. I will have something along the lines of seven lineups of the North Course on Wednesday players, seven lineups of the South Course on Wednesday players, and seven mixed lineups with three players on both sides. If there is someone out there that is telling you they feel extremely confident about how this will play, view this as a massive red flag, and probably consider taking advice from those who are more pragmatic about this situation.

Core 4: The four players that I will be most over-weight on relative to the field

• Sungjae Im ($9,300) (Projected ownership: 16.3%): I strongly considered Will Zalatoris or Justin Thomas for this spot, but I bet JT outright, and Willy Z is my main one and done option in both of my biggest leagues, so I’ll take the ownership discount on Sungjae and give him the spotlight in this article. The four main questions that I want my players to be able to answer this week are: Can you drive the ball long and straight, are you an elite long iron player, do you possess an awesome short game, and do you have a proven track record of success on Poa greens. The list of players that check all four boxes is extremely short, but Sungjae is one of them. He’s not going to over-power this course off the tee, but he’s by no means short, and his elite accuracy should allow him to continue to gain strokes off the tee at Torrey Pines, just like last year, where he gained +3.4. He ranks fourth in this entire field in long-term proximity from 200 yards, so I’d say he checks that box with flying colors. He also ranks 32nd in this field in long-term around the green play. It’s never been the best aspect of his game, but it’s far from a weakness. Sungjae still gets the moniker of a Bermuda guy, but the reality of the situation is that he’s just a great putter in general and has a proven track record of success on both Bent-grass and Poa as well. He’s gained over a stroke putting in three of five appearances at Torrey Pines, including +4.5 last year. He’s gained over a stroke putting in two of three appearances at Riviera, and he gained 1.5 strokes putting in his lone appearance at Pebble Beach. For the record, he’s above average inside 10 feet as well. Ultimately, I think for the second week in a row, you are catching a fair price and ownership number on Sungjae, and I plan on fading the entire 10 and 11K range, and mix and matching my lineups with Sungjae, Zalatoris, JT, and Hideki.

• Hideki Matsuyama ($9,000) (Projected ownership: 8.9%): I’ve already mentioned this on multiple podcasts, but I believe that Hideki’s Matsuyama’s outright price this week of 45/1 is not just the most egregious mis-price in this tournament, it’s the most incorrect price I have seen in any tournament in months. His DraftKings price is certainly more fair, and I am actually proud of DraftKings for not putting him below the likes of Jason Day or Maverick McNealy. Don’t underestimate them. The case for Hideki is simple: there are four essential skill-sets that one must possess to be in the best position to succeed at Torrey Pines, and If you’re noticing a theme, Torrey Pines rewards an extremely specific skill-set that very few players in the field possess. The first question that I ask this week with all of my plays is how many of those four skill-sets do they possess. The list of players that possess all four is extremely short, but Hideki is one of them. Doubters will point to his poor putting, but Poa has been by far his best surface, and he possesses a s strong track record of success on West Coast Poa. Hideki has gained over six strokes putting at Torrey Pines twice, and he’s had some nice putting performances at Pebble Beach and Riviera as well. My one concern with the former Masters champion is his recent off the tee play, but I actually believe that Torrey Pines is a perfect get right spot for those struggling with their driver. Barely half the field even hits the fairways here anyway, and you would be surprised in how little the difference is between missing a fairway at Torrey Pines by one yard, versus missing a fairway here by 30 yards. The 30-year-old ranks top-25 in this field in strokes gained off tee on long courses with difficult to hit fairways, and he’s gained strokes off the tee in seven of his nine appearances at the San Diego staple. Similar to Justin Thomas, Hideki’s elite short game gets completely over-shadowed by his generationally strong iron play. I would have considered jamming Hideki in at high ownership, but sub 10% is beyond disrespectful.  

• Cameron Davis ($8,400) (Projected ownership: 11.7%): Any consistent readers or listeners of my work are aware of the problem that I am developing with Cameron Davis. My numbers seem to believe he is one of the downright best players in the world, and his results suggest he’s a marginal PGA Tour player. Essentially, he is either a complete Ponzi scheme, or the former Rocket Mortgage Classic champion remains one of the best values on the board at a course that should accentuate his strongest skill-sets to a tee. Once we get past Rahm, Xander, Finau, Zalatoris, Sungjae, and Max Homa, the list of players that possess all four essential Torrey Pines skill-sets gets extremely short. Hideki Matsuyama and the Australian are the only two players in this field past 30/1 that possess elite driving ability, are top-20 long iron players with above average short games, and a proven track record of success on West Coast Poa greens. Coming off a missed cut by seven strokes at the American Express, we are getting a top-10 player in my model this week at a completely depressed price, and I expect him to start paying off his most loyal of defenders sooner rather than later.

• Emilian Grillo ($7,300) (Projected ownership: 3.4%): Remember when Emiliano Grillo was $9.1K four tournaments ago at the Mayakoba, or $9.3K at the Shriners, or $9.2K at the Sanderson (where he finished fifth), or $9.2K at the Fortinet Championship (where he finished T52)? I understand that those were weaker fields, but the Argentine was considered one the top-10 players in the field in half of the fall swing events he played. Again, the gap between the field this week and the Mayakoba and Shriners is not as big as you would think. Essentially, he eded the fall swing with a 45th and a 42nd, and began the new year with two MC, where he gained strokes ball-striking in both occurrences. After being above $9K in four of his last eight tournaments, Grillo now sits around the likes of Beau Hossler, Byeong Hun-An, Cameron Champ, and Martin Laird. Grillo is a much better player than the aforementioned jibronis, and I’d argue he’s a better player than over half of the guys between $7.5 and $8K too. The former Frys.com Open champion remains one of the 10 best long iron players in this field, is a rock solid driver of the ball, and has actually improved his putting greatly, particularly inside 10 feet. Grillo struggles with the flat-stick on any surface, but he’s actually put together some nice performances on West Coast Poa at both Torrey Pines and Riviera. I have not heard his name once this week, and I believe he is one of the biggest steals on the board.

Chalk Report: Ownership Projections for every range

• $10K: For the first time in what fees like forever, we have some true separation at the top this week. At $11,600, Jon Rahm is $1.1K more expensive than the second highest price option on the board, Tony Finau. So of course, the big question that most DFS players will be asking themselves this week is to Rahm or not to Rahm. The only other time that we experienced this much of a discrepancy at the top of the board was the Mexico Open, when once again, Rahm was the best player in the field by a healthy margin. The difference between the Mexico Open and this week however is that Rahm is actually fairly priced, so there’s far much more to sacrifice when plugging in an $11.6 golfer as the first man in in your lineup. Playing Rahm essentially takes you out of the $10K conversation, and even if a $9K golfer is your second man in, you are going to have to dig farther down the board than I imagine most are comfortable with. Ultimately, I believe that Rahm will come in around 25%. He is on a completely different level than any other golfer in the world right now, but does he deserve to be over $2,000 more expensive than Justin Thomas, who I still believe to be a top-five player in the world? Once we get past Rahm, Tony Finau should still clear 20%, and fall somewhere close to 23%. For being $1.1K cheaper than Rahm, I don’t believe that rolling out a 23% Tony Finau is a terrible option. Coming off a Sunday 62 at the American Express. Xander should check in in the high teens. I have him somewhere between 17.2 and 20.2%. As if often the case, the leverage can be found with Collin Morikawa, who I do believe is a touch too expensive. I cannot figure out for the life of me why he is $600 more expensive than Justin Thomas, but the University of Cal-Berkeley alum can be found at around 12% this week, and a play on Morikawa allows you to be more liberal with one of the more popular options in the $9K range as your second man in.

• $9K: In the $9K range, Justin Thomas, Will Zalatoris, and Max Homa, and should all be very similar in ownership. I hav all three of those players coming in between 18 and 23%. I think many people are using one of JT, Zalatoris, or Homa as their second man in (Homa makes the most sense), while others are actually starting their lineups down here with a JT-Zalatoris combo. It’s such a shame to me that JT is so under-priced in DraftKings. I do believe that he is going to win the tournament, and he is not an incredibly popular option in the betting market, but his DK price is just so insultingly low, that its impossible for DFS players to not at least see what their lineups look like with a top-five player in the world under 9.5K. Once we get past the big three, I have Sungjae Im coming in at 16.2%, Taylor Montgomery coming in at 14%, and Hideki Matsuyama, the best DraftKings play of the year thus far, coming in at 8.7%.

• $8K: The 11 players in the $8K range has just about everything you could asked. Irresponsibly over-owned players, leverage galore, under-priced guys, over-priced guys, etc, the list goes on. Let’s start with the chalk: Jason Day, who I have coming at 18.7%. I know there are players less than $1K above him who are more highly owned, but JT, Zalatoris, and Homa just feel like they are in a different tier. Once you get into the eights, the difference between Day and the players right below him is stark. Don’t get me wrong, I do believe there are a few more options that will clear double digits. I have Maverick McNealy coming in at 14.2%, Justin Rose at 14.1%, Cam Davis coming in at 11.7%, Si Woo Kim coming in at 11.4%, and J.J. Spaun coming in at 10.1%. All of these players are rosterable, especially if you are avoiding some of the higher owned players in the top. If you are playing Rahm, I believe a way to get unique is to fade the entire $10K and $9K range (unless Hideki of course), and grab one or two of the options in the eights. I do imagine that many players will go Rahm-Day to save themselves some cash instead plugging in a Zalatoris, JT, or Homa. Sahith Theegala, Keegan Bradley, Adam Hadwin, Luke List, and Hayden Buckley should all come in comfortably in the single digits, which is certainly understandable, as all come in with at least one red flag. At the same time, one of those five in the single digits will finish top-20 and win someone money. It’s up to you to find that guy, but I can guarantee you that one, if not two of the five will outperform Jason Day.

• $7K: Once again, ownership is pretty spread out down here and I’m not sure I would categorize anyone in the entire range as unplayable due to irresponsible ownership. There are certainly a few players that over-owned based on what they should be, but you’ve got tons of options down here. These are the players that I believe will cross the double digit threshold, listed from highest to lowest price: Taylor Pendrith (13.9%), Wyndham Clark (10.8%), Alex Smalley (13.2%), Kurt Kitayama (11.1%), Thomas Detry (11.2%), and Ben Griffin (10.1%). I completely understand why these are the most popular options and I certainly agree that placing ownership aside, all are good plays. I do feel that if you are not going crazy with chalk at the top, you can certainly play one or two of these guys. Yet if all six of these players make up the majority of your $7K pool, I would probably take a look in the mirror and consider other hobbies. There are a few players in this range that I do not believe will hit double digits, but will be in the 7 to 9.5% range that I want to give mention to: Callum Tarren, Ben Taylor, Robby Shelton, Brendan Steele, Patrick Rodgers, Will Gordon, Gary Woodland, Ryan Palmer, Dean Burmester. You can assume the players not mentioned are in the 6% ball-park or lower and are great options.

• $6K: As expected, there isn’t a player down here getting any form of steam. I would actually expect in a week where 25% of the field is playing an $11.6K golfer, that the $6K range would get a little more run, but that is far from the case. I can’t even really argue with it either, as I have mentioned on earlier podcasts this week that I do believe Torrey Pines is a golf course that you do not want to go dumpster diving on. Here’s the list of players that will be higher owned in relation to their peers, but anything north of 5% on any of these names would surprise me: Austin Smotherman, Tyson Alexander, Erik Barnes, Kevin Yu, and Taylor Moore.