By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the betting preview every Tuesday with Rick. If you are more into written content, I post a detailed course breakdown on Mondays and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this year, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather 

Last year, the wind came on Sunday. This year, it appears to be entering the equation much earlier. This honestly looks pretty brutal. On Thursday, between 11:00 AM and 5:00 PM, players will be treated to consistent wind speeds between 15 and 20 mph, and gusts from 17-24 mph. It does get a bit worse as the day goes on, but the struggle with finding an edge is that all the tee times are bunched together between 11:00 AM and 12:30 PM. Those who are able to finish their round by 3:00 might experience a bit of an edge, but this is often the difference between only a few holes. With a consistent wind speed between 21 and 29 mph, and gusts from 26-32 mph, Friday looks even worse. Not to mention the fact that the later tee times might even experience a light rain as they are completing their round. I still struggle to find any way to exploit a “wave advantage,” as the tee times are so bunched together, and we are basically forced to subjectively choose whether the Thursday morning or Friday morning early groups will experience more of an edge. My guess for the optimal tee time is late Thursday/early Friday, but I wouldn’t; use it as a reason to get on or off a player.

Core Four: The four players I will be most over-weight on relative the field

*Disclosure: I am not playing DFS this week, but if I was, here is where I would go: 

• Justin Thomas, $10,200 (Projected ownership: 31.3%): This week is all about game theory, finding ownership discrepancies, and capitalizing on groupthink. For whatever reason, the 15-time PGA Tour winner, who would give his left leg to Tiger Woods, is being overlooked. I have Thomas coming in as the lowest owned player about $9K, and he might come in at half the ownership of a player like Jon Rahm or Tony Finau, who I both expect to be over 40%. At least one will be over 50%. It can’t be the course history, as despite never winning here, he’s never finished worse than 12th with back-to-back top-fives in his last two appearances. Maybe it’s the recent form? After a strong performance at the Presidents Cup, Thomas has played just once this fall swing, recording a disappointing T40 where he gained 4.3 strokes from tee to green, but just 4.4 strokes putting. In all honesty, the putter really hasn’t been working for the summer, and he’s failed to gain over a stroke putting in his last seven starts. With that being said, he’s won plenty on Bermuda-grass, and I actually like this spot for him as a course fit. Outside of the flat-stick, the concern with Thomas is always the big miss off the tee. Yet he’s coming off a season where he ranked ninth in strokes gained off the tee, and 10th in driving accuracy. I think the big miss with Thomas might be more anecdotal than reality, and Albany features extremely generous fairways. If the recent PGA Championship winner can keep the ball on the planet off the tee, this is the bar none the biggest steal on the board. I trust him to get to 25-under in benign conditions, and I trust him even more if the wind kicks up. The greatest challenge of Albany is the tight collection areas around the greens, and Thomas still possesses one of the strongest and most creative short games in the entire world.

• Matthew Fitzpatrick, $8,300 (Projected ownership: 30.2%): I absolutely love Matt Fitzpatrick this week. He’s one of the most accurate drivers of the ball in this field, and he has experienced a ton of success chipping and putting off of pure Bermuda. I love that he’s coming off a fifth at the DP World Tour Championship where he gained 4.9 on approach, and a 13th at the CJ Cup (comp course) where he gained 4.3 off the tee. I trust his ball-striking right now more than any other player in this field, and considering that the weather looks to be a giant factor this week, he is rising up my power rankings rapidly– so much so that he is my only outright bet of the week. This week is not going to be the birdie fest that some were expecting. I actually believe it will be a bit of a grind, and Fitzpatrick is the man for that job. His ownership is extremely palatable as well, as Hovland is actually drawing more ownership in the $8K range. If I was forced into one pick to win this week, my choice would be either Fitzpatrick or Rahm. The only difference between the two is that we are actually getting value and an ownership break on the former.

• Sam Burns, $7,200 (Projected ownership: 25.0%): If any of the Tom Kim truthers can explain to me why they like his chances more than Sam Burns this week, I’m all ears. I really do believe we are getting Burns in a spot where he is under-owned and under-priced this week. Outside of one nightmare hole last year, Burns absolutely tore this place to shreds. We are getting him on a longer Bermuda course where he has some room to operate off the tee, not entirely dissimilar from Jackson C.C. and Innisbrook, where he has four combined wins. I guess people are reading into his withdrawal in Houston. He shot himself out of the tournament on Thursday morning, why go out an effort a made cut of a fall swing event with fairly brutal conditions? I expect Burns to bounce bag in a big way this week, and a T7 at Congaree (comp course!) is all I needed to see to know that the form is there. Burns is the best player in the $7K range, and he might be the lowest owned. This is a layup.

• Collin Morikawa, $6,900 (Projected ownership: 33.2%): This is just a pure mis-price, and one of the more egregious ones in recent memory. Usually, mis-prices garner exorbitant ownership, and while his ownership is high, it’s far from concerning. Cameron Young, Max Homa, and Tom Kim will all be in that same range, and Morikawa is the best player by a mile. I cannot explain for the life of me why he is cheaper than Jordan Spieth, Tommy Fleetwood, and Shane Lowry, and I wouldn’t have batted an eyelash if he was in the $8K range with Hovland and Fitzpatrick. The two-time major winner had this tournament in his grasp before blowing a six stroke lead on Sunday. Maybe DraftKings still has some scar tissue from his ejection, but I struggle to see any case for him being the 13th most expensive player in this field. One of the reasons why the recent newlywed was so in control of this tournament last year was because he is one of the most accurate drivers of the ball in the entire field, and he had no trouble hitting these smaller than average greens. The concern with Morikawa is always is the flat-stick, and I understand the risk incurred with playing him on an easier than average course. The 25-year-old got to 18-under here last year, won the Barracuda on an easy course, won the Workday at 19-under par, won the WGC- Concession at 18 under par (comp course!), and won the DP World Tour Championship at 17-under par. I feel a big season is coming for Morikawa, and this is such a misprice, that I have to blindly plug him in and leave money on the table. I’m pretty comfortable leaving 1-1.5K on the table with my Morikawa lineups, because I genuinely believe that he should be 8K any way.

Chalk Report: Ownership breakdown for every price range

• 10K: The $10K range only has three players this week, and I’m honestly quite surprised (and bummed) that they didn’t make at least one (or both) of Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm $11K plus. It’s a bit ridiculous that Rahm is only $10.7K when he’s been priced over $11K 42 (!!) times in his career, including at FedEx Cup playoff events, the Memorial (2x), Torrey Pines (3x), and four different major championships. Now DFS players are in a situation where there’s almost zero value in not playing at least one of the players in this range, as they are all so under-priced. I have Scheffler coming in at around 38%, which is certainly palatable. Rahm will be around 45-48%, and JT will be the lowest owned player at around 31%. The value is on JT but I can’t argue against a Rahm or Scheffler play, as both are under-priced.

• 9K: Only two players in this range: Xander Schauffele and Tony Finau. I have Xander coming in at around 35%, and Finau coming in at around 43%. Finau will be the second highest owned player on the slate, and he completely works as a second man in. The entire pricing this week is objectively stupid, as there is no reason why Finau shouldn’t be $10K in this field.

• 8K: The $8K range only features two players as well: Viktor Hovland and Matt Fitzpatrick. I have Hovland coming in at 33-36%, and Fitzpatrick coming in at 29-33%. At least their prices are a little bit closer to where they should be, but still, $8.7K for a defending champion in solid form feels a bit light to me. If Hovland is $9K and Finau is $10K, this would be a far more interesting DraftKings week.

• 7K: There’s a little more meat in the $7K’s this week, as five solid players are priced in this range. I have Tommy Fleetwood actually coming in as the highest owned players, but all five are actually pretty bunched together. All five of these players should fall between 24% and 30%. In my opinion, Burns is far and away the best value on the board.

• 6K: A meaty 6K range of eight players this week. Again, this is objectively dumb. Half of these players could have easily been priced in the $7K range and no one would blink. Collin Morikawa is one of the biggest mis-prices I can remember in all of my time playing DraftKings. He should be 50% at this price, but I have him coming in closer to 33%. Tom Kim (of course) is garnering more ownership, close to 40%, which again is.. objectively stupid. Tom Kim at 40% is an example of the groupthink that winning DFS players avoid at all costs. I admire taking a shot with Corey Conners, Sepp Straka, and Billy Horschel, who will all come in with ownership in the teens. Remember that this week is about game theory and finding an edge by building a different lineup. Often to build differently on these weeks, you will have to leave money on the table. If this is not something you like doing, I would sit this one out. Your not going to win a GPP anyway with your Rahm-Finau-Tom Kim core.