By Andy Lack

Greetings! It’s Presidents Cup week, and while I had initially planned on writing my regular DFS final thoughts article, I was having a tough time getting up for the slate. I’m generally not opposed to playing DraftKings on non-traditional weeks. I enjoy inputting lineups for tournaments such as the Zurich Classic, WGC Match Play, and Tour Championship, but I simply do not feel that DraftKings has figured out a fun way to implement a team format. I’m sure there is an edge to be found, and I’m happy to answer any questions in the slack for those that are playing, but it felt disingenuous to break down a slate that I will personally not be taking part in. On the other hand, I have robust interest in the prop market this week. For gamblers alike, the prop market is easily the most sensible way to get action in on the Presidents Cup, as the regular line to win on the United States has veered into un-bettable territory. In effort to provide subscribers with some actionable info this week in the absence of a true DraftKings slate, here are my thoughts on the Presidents Cup prop market.

While no official pairings have been announced, we can certainly make predictions of potential pairings based on who is paired together in the practice sessions.

The following are my guesses for the most likely pairings for day one. Getting a sense of the strengths and weaknesses of these potential pairings is absolutely essential in attacking the prop market. We must consider a player’s course fit, who they will be paired with, and how much they will be utilized. Here’s my breakdown of what I believe will be the most common pairings, and which teams we should be looking to bet on or fade throughout the week. I have also ranked these teams 1-10 based on skill-set evaluations for Quail Hollow.

United States 

• Jordan Spieth/Justin Thomas (Optimal Rank: 4)
  • This team wins if… Spieth finds a putter. JT is an elite enough ball-striker that his floor is high even on bad putting weeks. Both players can go ice cold with the putter, but there’s far less pressure on JT’s flatstick than Jordan’s in this matchup. I expect JT to deliver from tee to green and tear this place to shreds. Unless Spieth is a liability, this team should beat anything the Internationals toss out there.
  • This team is in trouble if… We get baaad Jordan Spieth. The two-time major winner has looked downright lost at times this season, and his stats reflect that. He’s 21st out of 24 players in Bermuda putting, 18th out of 24 players in long-iron proximity, and 20th out of 24 players in overall off the tee. He looked uncomfortable over nearly every putt in the back half of the season, and Quail Hollow is not the type of course where he can show up and fake it. I am extremely high on JT this week, so I wouldn’t go out of my way to fade this team, but unless he looks awesome over the first three days, I will be fading Spieth in Sunday singles.
• Xander Schauffele/Patrick Cantlay (Optimal Rank: 2)
  • This team wins if… Boring, boring golf. Just take care of business. After re-distributing my model, Xander is the number one course fit for me, ranking first in overall approach and long iron proximity. I’m surprised he hasn’t finished better than 14th in three appearances at Quail Hollow. This is a damn good golf course for him. If both players simply play to their baseline, they will beat whatever the Internationals throw at them handily. They are a play in matchups against any International team at -120 or less.
  • This team is in trouble if… I still don’t totally trust Cantlay on Bermuda. Cantlay and Morikawa are two U.S. players that I will actually be looking to fade in Sunday Singles (depending on who they are matched up against). It’s pretty shocking how much his baseline lowers on Bermuda-grass greens. For context, he’s the best long-term Bent-grass putter in this field, and the fifth worst long-term Bermuda-grass putter in this field! I do believe there is a universe where Cantlay stinks this week. I’ll be avoiding him in any individual market.
• Scottie Scheffler/Sam Burns (Optimal Rank: 1)
  • This team wins if… Hell ya. This teams rules. I’m in at pretty much any number under -150 in any matchup. Scheffler looked awesome at the Ryder Cup and can play with anyone on any course. He’s got enough distance to overpower this course and he remains the number one birdie maker in this entire field. More on Burns shortly.
  • This team is in trouble if… Any team can lose in 18 holes of match play, but my numbers suggest that this is actually the strongest team that the United States will trot out. If I’m picking nits, Scheffler’s putter got pretty cold towards the end of the season.
• Max Homa/Collin Morikawa (Optimal Rank: 9)
  • This team wins if… Morikawa needs to putt. Homa is steady and relatively weakness free, but Morikawa has been a mixed bag this season. It could come back at any moment, but his short game and putting really regressed this year, and while his iron play remained awesome, it was not elite enough to mask those flaws.
  • This team is in trouble if… For some reason my model seems to despise Morikawa on this golf course. It does make some sense. He’s arguably the worst Bermuda putter in this field, has possessed the worst short game in this field, and one of his biggest weapons (the ability to drive the ball straight) is devalued on this course. Morikawa is actually a player I will be looking to fade this week. I’m probably a touch lower on Homa this week than others as well.
• Cam Young/Tony Finau (Optimal Rank: 3)
  • This team wins if… Bombs away. I would love to see this team square up against Cam Davis and Taylor Pendrith. Both Finau and Young are excellent fits for Quail Hollow. Finau ranks second out of 24 players in overall approach, fifth out of 24 players in driving distance, third out of 24 players in birdies or better gained, and first out of 24 players in long-term proximity from 175 to 200 yards. I do prefer him on Bent-grass, but his Bermuda numbers don’t fall off a cliff the way Cantlay’s do. Cameron Young should love this golf course too. The 25-year-old ranks first out of 24 players in driving distance, fourth out of 24 players in long iron proximity, second out of 24 players in birdies or better gained, sixth out of 24 players in overall off the tee, and third out of 24 players in overall short game. I’m betting this team at anything under -130 in any matchup.
  • This team is in trouble if… We get some jitters out of Young, which is unlikely, given the fact that he’s already tasted back-nine Sunday contention in TWO majors already. Finau would need to really lose it on the greens for this duo to give any International pairing a chance.

International 

• Adam Scott/Cam Davis (Optimal Rank: 6)
  • This team wins if… Both players need to play above their baseline to beat any of the U.S. teams outside of maybe Homa/Morikawa. Scott still provides plenty of pop off the tee and remains a solid long iron player. He possesses a lot of experience in this format, but a 16-22-6 record doesn’t exactly inspire hope. Davis could be a play for me in singles, as he is one of the best long iron players and drivers of the ball in this field. I’d feel even better about his chances if this course was Bent-grass.
  • This team is in trouble if… For as high of a ceiling as Davis does possess, he’s far from a model of consistency. The Australian looked downright bad just last week at the Fortinet, a golf course he should have feasted on. Scott doesn’t possess the upside any more to put this team on his back. Davis would need to deliver right out of the gates.
• Tom Kim/Hideki Matsuyama (Optimal Rank: 5)
  • This team wins if… If Hideki putts, this team can compete. Any pairing involving Hideki will be one of the stronger ones that the International team trots out. The former Masters champ has already shown an affinity for Quail Hollow, and he certainly possesses the upside to go nuclear on this golf course. Tom Kim did gain 13 strokes putting on Champion Bermuda at the Wyndham. Anything close to that and this squad is in business.
  • This team is in trouble if… I don’t totally understand the Tom Kim love this week. Similar to Morikawa, I do not believe this golf course does the best job of accentuating his strongest skillset, the ability to drive the ball straight. Kim is actually a player I will be looking fade in Sunday singles. Hideki’s putter can also go ice cold on a moment’s notice. I won’t be looking to bet on this pairing, and if I was Immelman, I would put Hideki with someone else.
• Taylor Pendrith/Corey Conners (Optimal Rank: 8)
  • This team wins if… A sneaky interesting pairing of former roommates with differing skill-sets. This would not be my choice pairing in alternate shot from an analytics standpoint, but if they do have a friendship, I understand rolling them out in best ball. Conners has a sneaky good resume on long golf courses, and while Quail Hollow does devalue his elite driving accuracy ability, that hasn’t prevented him from racking up top-10s at Augusta, Country Club of Jackson, and Bay Hill. Pendrith is a future star who should feast on this golf course. This is a bet on team for me in best ball.
  • This team is in trouble if… Both players have unreliable putters, which can be a recipe for disaster in match play. This is one of the strongest ball-striking tandems the Internationals have, but with one of the worst cumulative putting scores in my rankings, they will only go as far as the flat-stick takes them.
• Sungjae Im/Sebastian Munoz (Optimal Rank: 7)
  • This team wins if… Sungjae is the safest bet to play well this week at a macro level. I believe the young Korean has the highest floor on the International team, and if he performs at his baseline, he should be in every match. Munoz is a far more volatile player, but he can heat up in a hurry. I would certainly wager on this squad at the right price.
  • This team is in trouble if… I just don’t think that Munoz is a Presidents Cup caliber player. I understand why Immelman chose him, and I have no qualms with the selection given his options, but he ranks below average in nearly every statistical category I am looking at this week when put up against his competitors. At the end of the day, we are still talking about a player with one Top-10 in his last 18 starts. Munoz might find himself outmatched quickly against this level of competition. If he performs admirably with Sungjae however, I like him as a sleeper pick top points scorer who could ride on Sungjae’s coattails.
• Mito Pereira/Christiaan Bezuidenhout (Optimal Rank: 10)
  • This team wins if… They would need a ceiling putting performance out of Bezuidenhout. On paper, this is one of the weakest teams that the Internationals could trot out, but Bezuidenhout is one of the top-three putters in this entire field. It’s within the realm of possibility that he finds some putt luck.
  • This team is in trouble if… Bezuidenhout is such a liability from a ball-striking standpoint. He ranks 22nd out of 24 players in driving distance, 22nd out of 24 players in overall approach, 19th out of 24 players in long iron proximity, 23rd out of 24 players in birdies or better gained, and 17th out of 24 players in overall off the tee. Mito is a strong ball-striker, but he really regressed over the back half of the season. Unless Bezuidenhout putts, this could get ugly quickly.

Pre-Tournament Betting Card

Top Overall Points Scorer: Justin Thomas (10/1) (Odds available on FanDuel): There are three important questions to consider when betting scoring props for the Presidents Cup. How does their game fit Quail Hollow? How many matches will they play? Who will they partnered up with? Justin Thomas checks at least two of these boxes with flying colors. To me, the World No. 7 is the best bet on the United States roster to play in every single match. I think there’s a good chance that we see Xander, Cantlay, Scheffler, and possibly Spieth in every match as well, but Thomas still appears to be the competitive heartbeat and leader of the United States squad. Thomas’ affinity for team golf is well documented, and he has the record (12-4-3 in combined Presidents and Ryder Cups) to back it up. The second box that Thomas checks is course fit. Obviously, Thomas won the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow in 2017. While this week’s setup will certainly differ from what we saw at the 2017 PGA, Quail Hollow is an excellent fit for Thomas’ game any way you want to slice it. In fact, Thomas can struggle at times to keep the ball in play off the tee, and given the shorter rough, I expect there to be less penalty for wayward driving this week than at the 2017 PGA. Thomas is always a play on long, driver heavy courses with wider fairways that place a greater emphasis on the second shot, and Quail Hollow fits that bill to a tee. Thomas ranks top-five in this field in driving distance, birdies or better gained, strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained around the green, average strokes gained per round on long golf courses, and total strokes gained at Quail Hollow. The one concern with backing JT would be the final question. Thomas feels a near lock to partnered with Jordan Spieth, and I have some concerns about Spieth and this golf course. Based on my course fit rankings, only Billy Horschel an Kevin Kisner finished lower than Spieth on the U.S. side. Still, Spieth rose to the occasion with Thomas at Whistling Straits for the 2021 Ryder Cup, another course he didn’t model particularly well for. I will be looking to fade Spieth in his Sunday singles match, but with an 8-2-1 combined Presidents Cup record in fourballs and foursomes, I do not imagine that he will hold Thomas back in the partner portion of this event.

Top International Points Scorer: Sungjae Im (6/1) (Odds available on DraftKings): While I have less of a sense of how the Internationals will pair their players, Sungjae Im and Hideki Matsuyama both appear to be locks to compete in every session. Unless one of them looks terrible on Thursday, Trevor Immelman would be a fool not to utilize Sungjae and Hideki heavily this week. They are the co-favorites in the Top International Points Scorer market for good reason. While I am generally not one to bet favorites, the back-end of the International roster is so unclear to me. I do not have a great sense of who will fall in and out of Immelman’s favor. If I was selecting one long-shot for this market, it would be Sebastian Munoz at 14/1. Still, outside of Sungjae, Hideki, and maybe Adam Scott, the other nine players on the International squad could easily get benched. My guess is that Immelman will ride the hot hand. If Taylor Pendrith looks great on Thursday, Pendrith has a chance to play every match. If Pendrith looks terrible on Thursday, he could easily get iced. I have no interest in attempting to predict who falls into Immelman’s favor on the back-end of the team. The odds aren’t great, but the only way to play this market is Hideki or Sungjae. Per my numbers, I actually prefer Sungjae at this golf course to Hideki (yes, I am aware that Hideki contended at the 2017 PGA Championship). Sungjae is the only International player to finish in the top-third of my model (yikes), and over the last year, he has actually been the number one player in the entire Presidents Cup in proximity from 200 yards plus, where 31% of approach shots will be coming from this week. The Young Korean already has some experience in this setting, going 3-1-1 in the 2019 Presidents Cup at Royal Melbourne, and now we get him on a long Bermuda course that does not feature an entirely dissimilar strategy from Bay Hill, where he has finished 3rd, 3rd, 21st, 20th in four appearances. Coming off a strong performance at East Lake, I expect Sungjae to be a lone bright spot for the International squad this week.

Top Overall Debutant: Sam Burns (+575) (Odds available on Bet365): I’ve been eagerly awaiting Sam Burns’ team competition debut, as I’ve always felt he would thrive in this format. The World No. 12 ranks top-five out of all competitors this week in strokes gained putting on Bermuda-grass, birdies or better gained, and strokes gained off the tee. His game is weakness free, ranking no worse than 15th out 24 competitors in all 14 of the statistical categories that I am looking at this week. With three of his four PGA Tour victories coming on Bermuda-grass, Burns should be more than comfortable at Quail Hollow, a big ball-park that will give him some room to operate off the tee. Burns is the defending champion at the Sanderson Farms, held at the Country Club of Jackson, another 7,400 yard plus Champion Bermuda-grass course with short rough that encourages an aggressive approach. Quail Hollow is certainly a harder golf course than the Country Club of Jackson, but I believe it will be set up to allow more scoring than we are used to seeing at the Wells Fargo Championship. If we are looking for harder Bermuda courses, Burns is the two-time champion at Innisbrook, which also features a sneaky large plurality of approach shots greater than 175 yards. The LSU product is also the number one player in the Presidents Cup in average strokes gained per round at Memorial Park, a more challenging, long Bermuda courses with more similar green complexes to Quail Hollow. I absolutely love Burns’ fit here, and I’ve had him earmarked at this event for months. The largest looming question with Burns is, will he play enough? I believe the answer is yes. Burns has two obvious partners, his best friend Scottie Scheffler, and his Zurich Classic teammate, Billy Horschel. My guess is that they partner Burns with Scheffler out of the gates in day one, but Billy gets mixed in later in the week. I would feel better about this bet if Burns got to play with Scheffler all the way through, but I still believe that a Burns/Horschel tandem should be favored against pretty much any pairing the International team could put out. Scheffler is the deserving favorite in this market, but the value play is Burns, who I believe is in store for a massive week in Charlotte.

Best of luck this week – AL