By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the betting preview every Tuesday with Rick. If you are more into written content, I post a detailed course breakdown on Mondays and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this year, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather 

Since players are split between two courses over the first two rounds, tee times are bunched together. On both Thursday and Friday, all players in the field tee off between 9:00 and 11:00 AM. For what it’s worth, Thursday morning does look fairly rough. The small pocket between 9:00 and 11:00 AM features 14 to 15 mph wind speeds with gusts north of 20 mph. If there is any argument for playing a weather edge, it would be to favor those with a later tee time on Thursday. Also, it’s worth noting that the Seaside course is more exposed to the wind than the Plantation. It’s not a huge difference, but the ideal player would start his round on the Plantation course, with a tee time as close to 11:00 AM as possible. Both sides could certainly be argued, but I actually want my players to begin on the Plantation course. It’s easy to disengage from a tournament after a poor performance on Thursday, and I would favor those with the highest probability of getting off to a hot start. I worry somewhat about the back and forth nature of Seaside – Plantation – Seaside. While most overrate how much easier the Plantation is compared to the Seaside, those with a later Plantation tee time on Thursday could experience an edge.

Core 4: The players that I most over-weight on relative to the field

• Keith Mitchell, $9,300 (Plantation) (Ownership projection: 22.6%): I tend to believe that the home game narrative is a bit over-blown, but as a card carrying member of the Sea Island Mafia, Keith Mitchell is my preferred choice of the $9K options this week. With two top-15 finishes in his last three starts at Sea Island, his track record at this event is strong, and the 30-year-old is coming off a rock-solid ninth-place finish in Houston where he gained strokes in all four major categories, including 7.1 ball-striking. I expand on this more with my next two selections, but I do believe that players with a similar profile to Mitchell are getting over-looked this week. The University of Georgia product certainly isn’t sneaking up on anyone from an ownership standpoint, but seven of the nine options above $9K this week could easily clear the 20% threshold. At around 22%, Mitchell is fine, and there are enough appealing pivots in the $8K range to really play whoever you desire above $9K regardless of ownership. I love selecting players that appear to be improving on their weaknesses, and the 5.7 stokes on approach that Mitchell gained last week in Houston really has my attention. We know that the former Honda Classic winner is fairly dominant off the tee, but his shaky approach numbers have held him back. If Mitchell did in fact find something with his irons last week, he could be in store for an absolutely massive week at a track that has been kind to him over the years.

• Taylor Pendrith, $8,500 (Plantation) (Ownership projection: 7.9%): I’m old enough to remember when Taylor Pendrith was a DFS darling, but it appears that most have cooled on the big-hitting Canadian. Don’t hop off before the miracle happens, as I find him to be one of the best values on the board this week when considering price and ownership. The 31-year-old remains one of the strongest ball-strikers in this entire field, and while he has garnered a reputation as a bomber, Pendrith is actually extremely accurate off the tee, ranking top-10 in this field in good drive percentage. The Kent State product is coming off a disgusting 79 on Sunday in Houston, but on the week, he still gained strokes ball-striking and simply fell victim to faulty putter over the weekend. I’m expecting a big bounce-back on the greens this week, as Pendrith gained five strokes putting at this event last year en route to a 26th-place finish. With high end finishes at the Rocket Mortgage, BMW Championship, and Barbasol, I certainly trust his ability to keep up in a birdie-fest. For what it’s worth, he’s been sneakily solid on short, positional, Bermuda tracks as well, with top-15 finishes at both TPC Sawgrass and Sedgefield. We rarely get the opportunity to buy low on one of the premier talents in the field at such palatable ownership, and I believe that Pendrith is an absolute must-play at this price and ownership.

• Wyndham Clark, $8,000 (Seaside) (Ownership projection: 6.7%): Similar to Pendrith, I simply believe that we are getting a discount on bombers this week based on the narrative that Sea Island is short and tight. Both the Seaside and Plantation course actually feature some of the widest fairways on the entire PGA Tour, and I am far from surprised that Clark has recorded two top-30 finishes in three appearances here. Coming off a rock-solid T16 in Houston where he gained 4.7 strokes ball-striking, the Oklahoma State product is certainly getting over-looked despite playing some excellent golf right now. He’s shown a clear affinity for these greens as well, gaining 8.3 strokes putting at this event last year. The 28-year-old also boasts a surprisingly strong track record at short courses, with a runner-up at Port Royal, a seventh and an 11th at PGA National, a 13th at TPC Summerlin, a 15th at TPC River Highlands, an 18th at Pebble Beach, and a 20th at Colonial. I trust his ability to get scorching hot with the flat-stick, and he ranks top-20 in this field in both opportunities generated inside 15 feet, and birdies or better gained. Sandwiched in between popular options such as Justin Rose, Davis Riley, Brendon Todd, Alex Smalley, Andrew Putnam, and J.J. Spaun, I actually believe that Clark possesses the most upside.

• Russell Knox, $7,000 (Plantation) (Ownership projection: 5.4%): A disappointing Sunday in Houston from Russell Knox prevented me from taking down the 20-max, but I was still incredibly encouraged from what I saw in the Scotsman. Knox gained 5.1 strokes on approach despite playing a course with a large plurality of long iron approaches. Now he returns to a wedge-fest where he can really separate himself. The two-time PGA Tour winner ranks second in this entire field in weighted long-term proximity from 125-175 yards, a range that accounts for close to 50% of all approach shots at the Seaside course. Knox possesses one of the strongest short, positional resumes in this field, with a win at TPC River Highlands, a second at Harbor Town, a second, third, and ninth at Mayakoba, a second and third at PGA National, a third at TPC Summerlin, a sixth at TPC Sawgrass, a seventh at Waialae, a seventh at Pebble Beach, and an eighth at Colonial. The list goes on. If Knox performed slightly better on Sunday in Houston, I believe he would be one of the highest owned players in this range. Yet for whatever reason, he appears to be getting over-looked this week at a course that fits his game to a tee.

Chalk Report: Ownership breakdown for every range.

• $10K: After Tony Finau’s withdrawal, there are only two players in the $10K range this week: Seamus Power and Brian Harman. I expect Power and Harman to both comfortably clear 20%, but Harman will certainly be more popular than Seamus. I have Power coming in between 21 and 23%, with Harman in the 25 to 27% range.

• $9K: With so few elite options this week, five of the seven players in the $9K range will certainly garner a fair amount of ownership. Let’s start at the top with Hoge, who could rival Harman as the highest owned player on the slate. Neither Power or Harman are significantly over-priced, so at $9.8K, Hoge can work as a first or second man in. I have the former Pebble Beach winner coming in at around 27%. After Hoge, Taylor Montgomery, Jason Day, Keith Mitchell, and Matthew NeSmith should all find themselves in the 20% range. I have Montgomery coming in around 21%, Day coming in around 24.5%, Mitchell coming in around 22%, and NeSmith coming in around 21%. The “leverage” this week comes in the form of a Joel Dahmen – Denny McCarthy start, as both players will be sub-15%. Denny might even be sub-10%. With such a poor field and soft pricing, it’s hard to declare any of the higher owned $9K players as disgusting chalk. There simply are not enough pivots, but I would certainly endorse taking a chance on at least one of Denny or Dahmen as a second man in.

• $8K: The $8K range is where we can really start to find some appealing options. Davis Riley will be the highest owned player in this range at around 16%. For what it’s worth, I do believe he is under-priced, and I would not have blinked if he was $8.9K. After Riley, I have Mackenzie Hughes coming in at around 14%, followed by Matt Kuchar, Brendon Todd, and Justin Rose in the 10 to 13% range. After that, Sahith Theegala, Patrick Rodgers, Taylor Pendrith, Webb Simpson, Kevin Kisner, and Wyndham Clark should all be in the single digits. I would not be surprised if any of these players caught some late steam and made their way closer to the Rose, Todd, and Kuchar group. Still, you should not have any trouble finding ownership breaks in this range. I write every single week about how there is a dead-zone in the $8K range, simply based on how most folks tend to build. One, if not multiple players from the Theegala, Rodgers, Pendrith, Simpson, Kisner, and Clark group will hit. As mentioned above, my preference is Pendrith and Clark.

• $7K: I am not sensing any repulsive group-think in this range, although there are a few players at somewhat concerning numbers. I feel comfortable suggesting that Alex Smalley, Andrew Putnam, J.J. Spaun, Harris English, and Ben Griffin will all clear double digits. I actually have all five of those players between 10 and 15%. I do not believe that we have to be worried about a 20% Joel Dahmen situation at the Mayakoba. If forced to choose one player with the highest chance of clearing 15%, I would probably say Putnam. After this group of five, there are a few other candidates (Aaron Rai, Hayden Buckley, Greyson Sigg, Lee Hodges) that could clear double digits. Still, there are a bevy of worthy pivots.

• $6K: There is small chance that course history king, and future Ryder Cup captain, Zach Johnson nears double digits. I have him closer to 8%, but you never know. After that, choose your own adventure down here. With only two players above $10K, most folks don’t even feel the need to venture into this range. John Huh, Austin Cook, and Ryan Armour are three names that I believe will have higher ownership than their peers, but it’s all relative. I’d be surprise if any of them clears 6%.

Best of luck this week -AL