By Andy Lack

Hi folks! The calendar golf season is right around the corner, and it’s time to get ready for our drafts. Season long fantasy golf is a concept that Rick and remain extremely bullish on, and I broke down on Monday all of the reasons why we believe it’s a completely untapped ecosystem. The most fun part about fantasy sports is the draft, and in the absence of golf tournaments until the first week of January, I will countdown each week by big board from 100-1. Here’s the upcoming schedule.

• 12/8//2022 (Thursday): Big Board breakdown (100-81)
• 12/12/2022 (Monday): Big Board breakdown (80-61)
• 12/14/2022 (Wednesday): Big Board breakdown (60-41)
• 12/19/2022 (Monday): Big Board Breakdown (40-21)
• 12/21/2022 (Wednesday): Big Board Breakdown (20-11)
• 12/26/2022 (Monday): N/A
• 12/28/2022 (Wednesday): Big Board Breakdown (10-1)

So without further ado, let’s dive into my rankings 10-1

10. Tony Finau (OWGR: 12)

• L12 Months True SG: 10th
• 2022 Money List Rank: 11th
• The Good 
  • Over the last 12 months, Tony Finau has been a top-10 player in the world, and he is one of only four players (Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele) to rank top-50 in all four major statistical categories over a year long sample size. There have been no signs of slowing down either, as over the past six months, Finau has been the second best player in the world, ranking top-25 in all four major statistical categories. Over the past three months, he’s been the number one tee to green player in the world.
  • The +1.26 strokes that he gained per round last year was the second best season of his career, and through a few events in 2023, he’s already up to a likely unsustainable +1.89 strokes per round.
  • In 24 starts last season, Finau made 19 cuts, with 12 top-30 finishes, including a runner-up at the Mexico Open, a fourth at the Charles Schwab Challenge, a runner-up at the Canadian Open, a win at the 3M Open, a win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and a fifth at the FedEx St. Jude’s. Finau didn’t miss a beat this fall swing either, with a win at the Houston Open.
  • The 30-year-old had a really interesting season, where he was actually quite bad until the Mexico Open, and then he essentially turned into a top-three player in the world, reeling off three wins, two runner-ups, and two other top-fives in a 15 start stretch.
  • Finau emerged as an excellent driver of the ball last season, gaining off the tee in 17 of his last 18 starts, including +5.8 at the Rocket Mortgage, +4.9 at the 3M Open, +5.0 at the Canadian Open, and +6 at the Wells Fargo Championship.
  • The irons have been just as solid, as Finau is one of the stronger short to middle iron players in the world, ranking 39th in proximity 125-150 yards, 20th in proximity 150-175 yards, and fourth in proximity 175-200 yards. He ranks fifth in greens in regulation percentage, and 12th in strokes gained approach, with elite upside as evidenced by the +5.9 on approach at the Rocket Mortgage, +7.9 at the 3M Open, +5.6 at the Travelers, +8.2 at the Mexico Open, and +6.4 at the Genesis Invitational.
  • The short game has been solid too, and far from a liability (81st in sand save percentage, 22nd in scrambling, sixth in scrambling from greater than 30 yards, 46th in overall strokes gained around the green).
  • Although two of his three recent wins (Rocket Mortgage and 3M Open) have come on birdie-fests, Finau has an incredibly strong record at the majors, and is a must start at every major. The Salt Lake City native has made five of five cuts with three top-10s at the Masters. He’s made seven of eight cuts with three top-10s at the PGA Championship. He’s struggled more at the U.S. Open, but still possesses three top-25s and two top-10s in seven starts at the U.S. Open, and he’s made six of six cuts with four top-25s and two top-10s at the Open Championship.
• The Bad 
  • There’s still room for improvement with the flat-stick, as Finau ranks 112th in that key range of four to eight feet, and 144th in the money making range of 10-15 feet. He’s gotten bailed out a bit by ranking 16th in putting from greater than 25 feet, which I would not say is sustainable. Still, when he gets hot, he gets hot, as evidenced by +6.4 strokes gained at the Canadian Open and +7.9 at the Houston Open.
  • I do believe it’s important to remember that Finau was having an incredibly disappointing season until this recent 15 start stretch where he caught fire and played the best golf of his career. I might be somewhat more dubious of Finau’s sustainability than others, as I’ve seen him drafted in the top-five often.

 

9. Collin Morikawa (OWGR: 11)

• L12 Months True SG: 23rd
• 2022 Money List Rank: 20th
• The Good 
  • Over the last year, Collin Morikawa has been the 23rd best player in the world via true strokes gained. 2022 was a down year for him, and he still remained a top-five iron player in the world and a top-15 overall ball-striker. Even though it felt like a disappointing season, Morikawa still had the best off the tee season of his career (+0.46 strokes gained off the tee). It was his worst iron season of his career, and he still gained 0.73 strokes on approach. It was also his worst around the green season of his career (-0.16 strokes around the greens).
  • In 18 qualified starts last year, Morikawa made 14 cuts, with 10 top-30 finishes, including a runner-up at the CJ Cup, a seventh at the Zozo, a fifth at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, a runner-up at the Genesis Invitational, a round of 16 appearance at the Match Play, a fifth at the Masters, a fifth at the U.S. Open, and a fifth at the FedEx St. Jude’s. He’s gotten off to an okay start this season as well, with a 45th at the Zozo, a 29th at the CJ Cup, and a 15th at the Mayakoba.
  • Collin gets all the press for his iron play, but he’s also one of the better drivers of the ball in the world, ranking 83rd in driving distance, 29th in driving accuracy, ninth in total driving, and 36th in strokes gained off the tee.
  • The two-time major winner’s iron play remains comical. Morikawa ranks fourth in proximity 50-125 yards, eighth in proximity 100-125 yards, second in proximity 125-150 yards, 20th in proximity 150-175 yards, 25th in proximity 175-200 yards, third in proximity 200-225 yards, first in proximity 225-250 yards, and first in overall proximity from 200 yards plus. Despite ranking a satisfactory 83rd in driving distance, long courses do not even scare me in the least bit with Morikawa given the fact that his 4 iron is more accurate than many other player’s 7 iron.
  • The University of California standout has had about as strong of a start to his major championship career as anyone since Tiger. He’s finished 44th, 18th, and 5th in three appearances at the Masters. He’s finished 1st, 8th, and 55th at the PGA Championship, 35th, MC, 4th, and 5th in four appearances at the U.S. Open, and 1st and MC in two appearances at the Open Championship. He’s played in each major no more than four times, and he already has a top-five in each one.
• The Bad 
  • The short game remains an issue, as Morikawa ranks 135th in sand save percentage, 94th in scrambling, 191st in scrambling from greater than 30 yards, and 152nd in strokes gained around the green.
  • The five-time PGA Tour winner is an interesting test case for the concept of spike putting. Most weeks, Collin putts poorly, but when he putts well, he usually putts well enough to win. In 20 measured starts last year, Morikawa lost strokes putting in 11 of them, but of the nine times that he did gain strokes putting, he gained over 2.5 strokes putting in seven of them, including +6.8 at the Genesis where he finished runner-up, and +5.0 at the U.S. Open, where he led the tournament after 36 holes and eventually finished fifth. 168th in putting inside 10 feet, and 166th in putting from four to eight really needs to be cleaned up.
  • Volume is a worthy concern as well. I didn’t realize how little Morikawa played in 2022, but of the top-20 players, only Shane Lowry and Rory McIlroy recorded less measured starts.

 

8. Viktor Hovland (OWGR: 9)

• L12 Months True SG: 17th
• 2022 Money List Rank: 19th
• The Good 
  • Over the last 12 months, Viktor Hovland ranks 17th in true strokes gained. Over the last six months, he shoots up to 13, mainly due to an improved short game. Hovland went from ranking 133rd in true strokes around the green over the last 12 months to 47th in true strokes gained around the greens over the last six months. Over the last three months, Hovland ranks 23rd in true strokes gained around the green, suddenly finding himself back inside the top-10 in the world overall. If the young Norwegian’s short game continues to trend positively, the sky is the limit.
  • In 20 qualified PGA Tour starts last year, Hovland made 17 cuts, with 11 top-30 finishes, including a win at the Mayakoba, a fourth at the Genesis Invitational, a ninth at the PLAYERS, and a fourth at the Genesis Invitational. I wish Hovland got closer to 25 starts, but he did play twice in Saudi Arabia last year. Maybe, since he didn’t go to LIV, he’ll eliminate the Middle East trip in exchange for one or two more PGA Tour events in late January or early February.
  • Last year, Hovland gained 1.16 strokes per round, a step below his +1.44 in 2021, where he announced himself as an elite player. The off the tee did get a bit worse for him this year, and it was his worse around the green season of his career. Yet on the contrary, 2022 was his best putting season of his career. The 25-year-old is off to a strong start this year as well, with a fifth at the Zozo Championship, a 21st at the CJ Cup, a 10th at the Mayakoba, a 23rd at the DP World Tour, and a win at the Hero World Challenge.
  • Hovland is still an elite driver of the ball, ranking seventh in total driving, 37th in driving distance, 70th in driving accuracy, and 26th in strokes gained off the tee. The Oslo native also ranks seventh in birdie or better percentage. 17th in par four scoring average, and 18th in par three scoring average.
  • His irons are even more of a strength, and Hovland has a good case for the best in the world from 125 to 225 yards, ranking second in proximity 125-150 yards, 46th in proximity 150-175 yards, third in proximity 175-200 yards, and first in proximity 200-225 yards. When Hovland is feeling it on approach, there are few in the world with a higher ceiling. Over the last year, he’s had four events where he’s gained over six strokes on approach (+7.1 at the BMW PGA Championship, +9.5 at the PLAYERS Championship, +6.1 at the Genesis Invitational, and +6.9 at the Dubai Desert Classic).
  • There’s certainly reason to be encouraged by Hovland’s putting ability. He ranks 24th in one putt percentage, 48th in putting inside 10 feet, 17th in putting average, fifth in putting from 10 to 15 feet (money making zone), and 24th in putting 15-20 feet. There’s certainly room for improvement in the most sustainable putting metric, as he only ranks 114th in putting from four to eight feet. On the other hand, Hovland was also 184th in putting from 25 feet and above, so if he catches the right side of luck with some bombs, we could easily see more improvement out of that aspect of his game.
  • We finally got to see the three-time PGA Tour winner play a relevant role in a major championship at last year’s Open at St. Andrew’s. He has now played in 12 majors, with 10 made cuts, five top-25s, one top-10, and one top-five. Hovland looked completely out of sorts playing with Rory in the final group at St. Andrew’s, but it was an invaluable learning experience, and I expect Hovland to find himself in the mix at a major again in the near future. I love how Oak Hill, L.A. CC, and Royal Liverpool all set up for him this year.
• The Bad 
  • While short game is beginning to improve, he really needs to become a better bunker player, ranking 150th in sand save percentage. It is possible that he’s turned a corner though, as Hovland has now gained strokes around the green in his last four measured starts.

 

7. Will Zalatoris (OWGR: 7)

• L12 Months True SG: 6th
• 2022 Money List Rank: 3rd
• The Good 
  • Over the last 12 months, Will Zalatoris has been the sixth best best player in the world via true strokes gained, mainly buoyed by the fact that he has been the second best iron player and ninth best driver of the ball in the world over that timespan. Zalatoris is the only player in the world to have ranked top-10 in both off the tee and approach. There’s a strong case to be made that Zalatoris is pound for pound the best ball-striker in the world.
  • The 26-year-old improved across the board in all four major statistical categories from an already strong rookie season in 2021.
  • In 24 starts last year, Zalatoris made 19 cuts, with 16 top-30 finishes, including a sixth at The American Express, a playoff loss at the Farmer’s Insurance Open, a quarter-finals appearance at the WGC Match Play, a sixth at the Masters, a fourth at the Zurich Classic, another runner-up playoff loss at the PGA Championship, a fifth at the Memorial, yet another runner-up at the U.S. Open, and then finally, his breakthrough win at the FedEx St. Jude’s Championship, the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs. Unfortunately, he sustained an injury the following week at the BMW Championship, and was unable to compete for the top prize at East Lake. On a brighter note, reports have been that the Wake Forest standout is now fully healthy and ready to go for the season opener in Hawaii.
  • Zalatoris has plenty of pop off the tee, averaging nearly 315 yards off the box. Like many bombers, he’s able to dominate in this category without hitting a ton of fairways (159th in driving accuracy percentage). Zalatoris gained strokes off the tee in 19 of 22 starts last year, although he’s never had that peak performance where he’s gained over five strokes.
  • The San Francisco native was the number two iron player on the PGA Tour last year, and he ranked 15th in proximity 50-125 yards, 28th in proximity 100-125 yards, 14th in proximity 125-150 yards, second in proximity 150-175, sixth in proximity 200 to 225 yards, and fifth in overall proximity from 200 yards plus. He’s just as strong of a flip wedge player as he is a long iron player, and the high end upside (+7.7 at the FedEx St. Jude’s, +7.4 at the U.S. Open, +7.9 at the Farmer’s Insurance Open) is there as well. Zalatoris gained strokes on approach in 19 of 22 starts last season.
  • He’s a perfect fit on any course that separates elite tee to green play from average tee to green play, and it just so happens that major championship golf epitomizes that. Zalatoris has finished second and sixth in two appearances at the Masters, eighth and second in two appearances at the PGA Championship, missed cut, sixth, missed cut, second in four appearances at the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship is the only major where he has not recorded a top-five, although he did finish 28th last year at St. Andrew’s. Zalatoris was a Ryder Cup star at LA C.C. in 2017, and he sets up beautifully for Oak Hill as well.
• The Bad 
  • There’s certainly room for improvement with his short game. He hasn’t been as bad as Morikawa or Hovland, but he still ranks a very ho-hum 74th in strokes gained around the green, 111th in sand save percentage, 114th in scrambling, and 137th in scrambling greater than 30 yards.
  • We all know that Zalatoris doesn’t pass the eye test on the greens, and the numbers are actually better than I would have expected, but they still aren’t great. The 2021 Rookie of the Year ranks 103rd in strokes gained putting, 161st in putting inside 10 feet, 172nd in putting from 10 to 15 feet, and 175th in putting from four to eight feet. There is so much room for improvement in the most important putting stats, and Zalatoris is actually a much more of a capable long putter than he is a short putter. Zalatoris’ path to gaining more strokes around the greens would be reversing this.

 

6. Xander Schauffele (OWGR: 6)

• L12 Months True SG: 5th
• 2022 Money List Rank: 6th
• The Good 
  • Over the last 12 months, Xander Schauffele has been the fifth best player in the world via true strokes gained. Him and Rory McIlroy are the only two players in the world to rank inside the top-25 in all four major statistical categories. Outside of Rory, there’s a solid case to be made that Xander is the most well-rounded, complete golfer in the game at this current moment. Over the last six months, he shoots all the way up to third in true strokes gained. I still believe that his best golf is ahead of him.
  • Xander has put together an incredible run of golf, gaining close to a stroke and a half per round for four years in a row, and it might even get better, as this was his best approach season of his career.
  • In 20 starts last year, Xander made 18 cuts, with 15 top-30 finishes, including a third at the Waste Management, a win at the Zurich Classic, a fifth at the Byron Nelson, a win at the Travelers, a win at the Genesis Scottish Open, and a third at the BMW Championship.
  • The San Diego State product is an excellent driver of the ball, ranking third in total driving, 24th in club head speed, 35th in driving distance, 60th in driving accuracy percentage, and 34th in strokes gained off the tee. He’s gained over two strokes off the tee in over half of his measured starts this year.
  • Xander’s iron play is even stronger. The San Diego native ranks 10th in proximity 50-125 yards, sixth in proximity 100-125 yards, 10th in proximity 125-150 yards, 21st in proximity 175-200 yards, fourth in proximity 200-225 yards and 10th in proximity 200 yards plus. Xander is just as elite of a flip wedge player as he is a long iron player. He gained over 2.5 strokes on approach in 12 of 20 starts this year, including +5.6 at the BMW Championship, +5 at the Genesis Scottish Open, +5.7 at the Travelers Championship, +7.5 at the Memorial, +5.1 at the Match Play, and +5.0 at the Valspar. Some truly avant-garde stuff out of the future U.S. Open winner at LA C.C.
  • Maybe the most underrated aspect of Xander’s game is that he is the number two bunker player on the PGA Tour, getting up and down close to 65% of the time. He’s gained around the green in 14 of 20 starts last year.
  • The seven-time PGA Tour winner is a strong putter as well, and he gained strokes putting in 15 of 20 measured starts last year, including +7.9 at the Travelers. If we are picking nits, I would like to see him spike a little bit more. The +7.9 at the Travelers was the only time he gained over four strokes putting on the whole season. He would likely win more if he was a more volatile putter. Xander gained between -0.5 and +2.5 strokes putting in 15 of 20 starts last year, which explains why he is a top-25 machine, but he needs to eclipse four strokes putting more often to rack up wins. Xander ranks 17th in putting inside 10 feet, eighth in putting average, 29th in putting from 10 to 15 feet, and 60th in putting from four to eight feet. There’s some room for improvement in the most sustainable metrics, but the fact that he ranks 111th in putting greater than 25 feet, means that he was this strong of a putter without the benefit of much luck. Pound for pound, Xander is still one of the best putters of the elite players.
  • He’s an absolute must start at all four majors, and I expect him to win one next year too. Xander has three top-25s, two top-10s, two top-fives, and a runner-up at the Masters. He has three top-25s in six starts at the PGA Championship. He’s never finished worse that 14th in six starts at the U.S. Open, and he’s never finished worse than 41st, with three top-25s and a runner-up in five appearances at the Open.
• The Bad 
  • Xander is the epitome of a weakness free golfer with an incredibly high floor. Worst case scenario is that he is going to pile up top-25s at an elite rate without winning. Best case scenario is that he is going to still rack up those top-25s, and mix in a few wins as well. If we really want to pick nits, I do wish he played a bit more golf. He was at 20 starts last year, which is more than Rory, Rahm, Cantlay, Morikawa, Fitzpatrick, and Lowry, and right on par with JT, Hovland, and Hideki. Still, the 18-21 start players do deserve to be knocked a touch compared to the 23 plus start golfers (Scheffler, Zalatoris, Finau, Burns, Sungjae, Young, Homa, Wise).

 

5. Scottie Scheffler (OWGR: 2)

• L12 Months True SG: 2nd
• 2022 Money List Rank: 1st
• The Good 
  • Over the last year, Scottie Scheffler has been the second best player in the world via true strokes gained, mainly buoyed by the fact that he ranks top-12 in true strokes gained off the tee, true strokes gained approach, and true strokes gained around the green.
  • Last year was Scheffler’s third full season on Tour. In 2020, he gained +1,31 strokes per round. In 2021, he regressed a touch, gaining 1.06 strokes per round. Last year came the big breakout, as Scheffler gained a whopping 1.68 strokes per round. It was the best iron season of his career (+0.81) by almost half a stroke, as well as his best around the green and putting season.
  • In 24 starts last year, Scheffler made 20 cuts, with 18 top-30 finishes, including a fourth at the Mayakoba, a second at the Houston Open, a win at the Waste Management, a seventh at the Genesis, a win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a win at the WGC Match Play, a win at the Masters, a playoff loss at the Charles Schwab, a runner-up at the U.S. Open, and a third at the BMW Championship. He’s shown no signs of slowing down either, with a third at the Mayakoba and a ninth at the Houston Open already this fall swing.
  • I have zero concerns about Scheffler off the tee, and while he does not possess elite accuracy, he’s got plenty of distance and does a fine job of keeping the ball in play.
  • The 26-year-old ranked second in birdie average, third in better or better percentage, ninth in par four scoring average, third in par four scoring average, and fifth in par five scoring average.
  • The irons are even stronger. Scheffler ranks 23rd in proximity 125-150 yards, 20th in proximity 150-175 yards, second in proximity 175-200 yards, 55th in proximity 200 yards plus, fourth in strokes gained approach, and first in greens in regulation percentage. Scheffler gained over a stroke on approach in 17 of 22 measured starts last year, including 9.2 at the U.S. Open, 8.1 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and six (!!) other starts where he gained over five strokes on approach. Talk about a high ceiling.
  • Scheffler has made it very clear early on in his career, even before his breakout last season, that he is a force to be reckoned with on major championship style set-ups. The University of Texas standout has never finished worse than 19th in three appearances at the Masters. He’s finished 4th-8th-MC at the PGA Championship, and 7th and 2nd in his last two U.S. Opens. Scheffler has also finished 8th-21st in two starts at the Open Championship. Across 13 major starts, Scheffler has finished in the top-10 in six of them. A 50% top-25 finish is remarkably strong, a 50% top-10 percentage is out of this world. The only other two active players with over a 50% top-10 percentage (minimum 10 starts) are Will Zalatoris and Collin Morikawa. Of active players with a minimum of 20 starts, Rory leads the pack at 49.1%.
• The Bad 
  • I have some concerns about his putting, and I would expect we see a bit of regression out of Scheffler on the greens this year. The reigning Masters champ ranked ninth in putting from 10-15 feet (money making zone!) and fifth in putting from 20-25 feet. I would expect a touch of regression in both categories. With that being said, the path for Scheffler to gain more strokes on the greens is via the sustainable short putting stats. Scheffler ranks 155th in putting inside 10 feet, and an absolutely putrid 180th in putting from four to eight feet. Let’s just for a moment think about how dominant Scheffler could have been last season had he not been nearly dead last on Tour in the most important putting metric.
  • Of the group of Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, and Will Zalatoris, Scheffler undoubtedly has the best short game. Yet if we are picking nits, he definitely could improve his bunker play (105th in sand save percentage).

 

4. Justin Thomas (OWGR: 8)

• L12 Months True SG: 7th
• 2022 Money List Rank: 9th
• The Good 
  • Over the last year, Justin Thomas has been the seventh best player in the world via true strokes gained, and that is considering the fact that it was a down year for the 15-time PGA Tour winner. He’s only been the 14th best iron player in the world over that timespan, and JT is used to ranking top-ten in that category for five years straight.
  • Thomas gained 1.55 strokes per round last year, which is a fairly average season for him. When he was at his best, he was gaining 1.7 strokes per round and 0.9 strokes on approach. The short game, putting, and off the tee has remained consistent with his long-term baseline, but the drop-off from +0.9 to +0.7 strokes on approach hurts.
  • In 20 starts last year, JT made 18 cuts, with 13 top-30 finishes, including a third at the Mayakoba, a fifth at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, an eighth at the Waste Management, a sixth at the Genesis Invitational, a third at the Valspar, an eighth at the Masters, a fifth at the Byron Nelson, a win at the PGA Championship, and a third at the Canadian Open.
  • JT remains an awesome diver of the ball (16th in strokes gained off the tee) despite being fairly inaccurate (167th in driving accuracy). In 20 starts last year, Thomas gained strokes off the tee in 17 of them.
  • Thomas ranks first on the PGA Tour in par four scoring average, and second in birdie or better percentage.
  • Even in a down year with his biggest weapon, the University of Alabama standout still ranked fist in proximity from 50-125 yards, first in proximity 100-125, second in proximity 125-150 yards, third in proximity 150-175, 16th in proximity 175-200 yards, and 10th in proximity 200 yards plus. JT did mix in a couple of uncharacteristic approach performances, but the ceiling is still there (+7.1 at the Waste Management, +7.4 at the Valspar, +6.5 at the Canadian Open, +6.7 at the U.S. Open).
  • The Louisville, Kentucky native possesses an elite short game, ranking 15th in strokes gained around the green, 11th in scrambling, fifth in scrambling greater than 30 yards), and he’s one of the best bunker players in the world (eighth in sand save percentage).
  • Despite there being a valid argument that JT has underperformed in the majors, he’s still a must start at all of them, including the Open Championship. In seven starts at the Masters, JT has made every single cut, with six top-25s, two top-10s, and a top-five. He’s made six of seven cuts with four top-25s and two wins at the PGA Championship. He’s got four top-25s and two top-10s in eight appearances at the U.S. Open, and just one top-25 in six appearances at the Open. I’m firmly in the camp that it’s only a matter of time before he figures out links golf, and I love the way that Oak Hill and LA C.C. set up for him as well. He’ll have a green jacket by the time it’s all said and done as well.
• The Bad 
  • The putting remains completely hit or miss, but 2022 was actually JT’s best putting season since 2018. He doesn’t really kill you in any of the individual putting metrics, but he’s not elite either. JT ranks 108th in putting inside 10 feet, and 47th in putting from four to eight feet. There’s room for improvement, and I do believe he has the work ethic to improve this aspect of his game.

 

3. Patrick Cantlay (OWGR: 4)

• L12 Months True SG: 4th
• 2022 Money List Rank: 4th
• The Good 
  • Over the past year, Patrick Cantlay has been the fourth best player in the world via true strokes gained. He is truly one of the most well-rounded players in the game, as him, Rory McIlroy, and Xander Schauffele are the only three players in the world to rank top-35 in all four major statistical categories.
  • In 19 starts last year, Cantlay made 17 cuts, with 14 top-30 finishes, including a fourth at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, a ninth at the American Express, a fourth at Pebble Beach, a playoff loss at the Waste Management, a win at the Zurich Classic, a third at the Memorial, a fourth at the Genesis Scottish Open, an eighth at the Open Championship, a runner-up at the Rocket Mortgage, and a win at the BMW Championships. His 11 (!!) top-10s last year led the PGA Tour. While some might be concerned about the lack of value, keep in mind that he did not play the fall swing at all, so those 19 starts all came between January and September, which isn’t bad. He did play the Shriners this fall swing and finished second, so there’s been no apparent signs of slowing down.
  • Cantlay is a great driver of the ball. He’s plenty long (30th in driving distance), and he actually hits more fairways that many of the other elite players (93rd in driving accuracy). He gained strokes off the tee in 15 of 18 qualified starts last season, but he does not have the +5 ceiling of some of the other great drivers of the ball. His best driving week of the season was when he gained +4.1 at the U.S. Open, but he mainly lives in the +1 to +3 zone. He may not win tournaments with his driver, but it certainly helps him rack up top-10s.
  • Cantlay ranked fifth in birdie or better percentage and was the number one par-five scorer on the PGA Tour. He went for the green in two on a par five 66% of the time (sixth on the PGA Tour) and hit the green 27% of the time (26th on the PGA Tour). This can be easily be explained by Cantlay’s strength as a long iron player (17th in proximity 200 yards plus). Cantlay can be a drag to watch as he is maniacally deliberate and slow, but he actually plays very aggressively.
  • The UCLA product’s iron play is certainly more volatile than his driving, as he lost strokes on approach in 8 of 18 measured starts last year. With that being said, he also has a higher ceiling with his irons. Cantlay gained +5.2 at the BMW Championship and +8.7 (!!) at the Heritage.
  • The eight-time PGA Tour winner also possesses a rock solid short game, ranking 22nd in sand save percentage, eighth in scrambling, and 22nd in scrambling from greater than 30 yards.
  • We all know that Cantlay is an assassin on the greens, and outside of Cam Smith, he’s probably the strongest putter of the elite players. The Long Beach native ranks eighth in one putt percentage, fifth in putting inside 10 feet, 13th in putting greater than 25 feet, 26th in putting from four to eight feet, and 28th in strokes gained putting. He’s coming off a runner-up at the Shriners where where he gained 8.1 strokes putting, and he still holds the record for the greatest putting performance of the strokes gained era, where he gained +14.6 strokes on the field at the BMW Championship, ultimately taking down Bryson DeChambeau in an epic playoff.
  • Cantlay gets knocked for his major performance, which I don’t believe is totally fair. He’s got two top-25s in six appearances at the Masters, and he actually held the solo lead for a moment on Sunday before Tiger made his charge. Cantlay has two top-25s in six appearances at the PGA Championship, with a third at the 2019 PGA at Bethpage. He’s never missed a cut in seven appearances at the U.S. Open with four top-25s finishes, and back-to-back top-15 finishes over the last two years. He’s even off to a strong start at the Open, arguably the toughest major for newcomers, with two top-25s already in four starts, including an eight last year at St. Andrew’s.
• The Bad 
  • I cannot think of any arguments for why Patrick Cantlay should not be a top-five pick in any draft. He has one of the highest floors in golf, and the fact that he is not too over-dependent on one specific skill-set should translate to highly sustainable golf. If we want to pick nits, I would love if he played more golf, but he plays more than Shane Lowry, Rory McIlroy, and Collin Morikawa, the same amount as Matt Fitzpatrick and Jon Rahm, and just barely less than Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama, and Jordan Spieth. I’m not sure that I see a ton changing with his schedule. He’s very locked into the tournaments that he plays, and he is fairly dominant at PGA West, Muirfield Village, Detroit Golf Club, TPC Scottsdale, Harbour Town, TPC River Highlands, and the Plantation Course at Kapalua.

 

2. Jon Rahm (OWGR: 4)

• L12 Months True SG: 3rd
• 2022 Money List Rank: 15th
• The Good 
  • Over the past 12 months, Jon Rahm has been the third best player in the world via true strokes gained, largely buoyed by the fact that he is the number one driver of the ball in the world. As good as Rahm was last year statistically, it still felt like a bit of a down year considering he only won once, and it came at a pretty nothing event. I believe he is going to bounce back in a big way and win at least twice, including a major. The Spaniard has already gotten the ball rolling. In the last three months, he’s been the best player in the world.
  • Rahm gained 1.84 strokes per round in 2022, his worst season since 2018. Still, it was the best off the tee season of his career (+0.96). To gain almost a stroke to the field solely off the tee for a year straight is nothing short of historically special. With that being said, his dominance off the tee was largely wasted by the fact that he regressed on approach by over a quarter of a stroke, and it was his worst short game game season of his entire career. The putting remained okay. It was not his best season on the greens, but it wasn’t his worst either.
  • In 18 qualified starts last year, Rahm made 17 cuts, with 13 top-30 finishes, including a runner-up at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, a third at the Farmer’s Insurance Open, a 10th at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, a round of 16 appearance at the WGC Match Play, a 10th at the Memorial, a 12th at the U.S. Open, a fifth at the FedEx St. Jude’s, and an eighth at the BMW Championship. This fall, Rahm has finished runner-up at the BMW PGA Championship, fourth at the CJ Cup, and he won both the Open de Espana and the DP World Championship.
  • Rahm is the best driver of the ball in the world, ranking first in strokes gained off the tee, first in total driving, fifth in driving distance, 16th in club head speed, and 56th in driving accuracy percentage. The seven-time PGA Tour winner is actually incredibly accurate for how long that he is. Rahm gained strokes off the tee in 16 of 18 starts last year, with some incredible ceiling performances (+6.2 at the Open de Espana, +5.4 at the Open Championship, +7.3 at the PGA Championship, +5.6 at the Mexico Open, +7.2 at the PLAYERS, +5.2 at the Genesis, and +7.9 at the Waste Management). Many great players go their entire career without nearing +6 strokes off the tee, let alone +7, and Rahm makes it look easy.
  • He’s 10th on Tour in par four scoring average, 17th in birdies or better gained, and 17th in par-five scoring average.
  • While Rahm is not as dominant on approach as he is off the tee, the 28-year-old is still a supreme iron player. He ranks third in greens in regulation percentage, 24th in proximity from 200 yards plus, third in going for the green percentage on par fives, and third in hitting the green percentage on par fives in two on par fives. What this tells me is that Rahm is an absolutely elite long long iron player who has the ability to dominate on par fives and longer and harder courses. The longer and harder the course is, the biggest advantage that Rahm possesses. Before anyone hits a tee shot at Torrey Pines or Muirfield Village, Rahm is starting on second base. With that being said, there is certainly room for improvement with his short iron play. Rahm ranks 150th in proximity 50-125 yards, 175th in proximity 100-125 yards, and 140th in proximity 125-150 yards. The shorter and more wedge heavy the course is, the less of an advantage that Rahm has.
  • The Arizona State standout should, and will be under 14/1 at every major this year. He’s made six of six cuts at the Masters with four top-10s and two top-fives at the Masters. Augusta is an incredible course for him and I fully believe that he will win a green jacket in the next three to five years. He’s made five of six cuts with three top-25s, two top-10s, and a top-five at the PGA Championship. In seven starts at the U.S. Open, Rahm has five top-25s, two top-10s, and a win at the U.S. Open. At the Open Championship, Rahm has two top-25s, and a third at Royal St. George’s in 2021.
• The Bad 
  • I do not know what happened to Rahm last year around the green. He’s always had good hands and this has historically not been a point of weakness for him, but Rahm ranked 180th in sand save percentage, 139th in scrambling, 110th in scrambling from greater than 30 yards, and 143rd in overall strokes gained around the green. His short game (-2.65) lost him the tournament at Torrey Pines. It destroyed an elite ball-striking performance at Riviera, and it killed his chances for any form relevancy at the PGA Championship. It does appear that he has turned a corner however, as Rahm has gained over 2.5 strokes around the green in three straight measured starts to begin the new season.
  • Rahm is a solid putter, but he ranks 128th in the most important metric of putting from four to eight feet. That is the range that wins you major championships, and Rahm can easily do better than drilling just 68% of his attempts from that range. He does make up for it somewhat by ranking 10th in putting from 10 to 15 feet.
  • 18 qualified starts is far from ideal, but the reality of the situation is that he’s always going to play in Spain, with one or two more European starts that does eat into his ability to rack up events on the PGA Tour. With all of this being said, Rahm delivers damn near every time he plays. Rahm played 18 times last year and recorded 13 quality starts. Sahith played 31 times and recorded 11 quality starts. As already mentioned, volume isn’t everything.

 

1. Rory McIlroy (OWGR: 1)

• L12 Months True SG: 1st
• 2022 Money List Rank: 5th
• The Good 
  • Rory McIlroy is the best player in the world, and I actually don’t have much interest in entertaining the Cam Smith argument when the numbers are right in front of our face. Over the last year, Rory ranks first in true strokes gained, second in true strokes gained around the green, second in true strokes gained off the tee, and fist in true strokes gained tee to green. Over the past year, Rory has been +0.34 strokes per round better than the number two player overall. Him and Xander are the only two players to rank top-25 in all four major statistical categories over the last year. Him and Jon Rahm are the only two players in the world to gain over a stroke per round off the tee. Rory is a half stroke per round better than the average PGA Tour pro in all four major statistical categories
  • Rory gained +2.4 strokes per round last year, good for the best season of his career. Now, Rory is at the stage where he should only be defined by wins, and more specifically major championship, and he did win twice last year, but neither were meaningful. It was his best off the tee season since 2019, his best approach season since 2019, the best around the green season of his entire career, and the best putting season of his entire career by a healthy margin.
  • In 15 PGA Tour starts last season, Rory made 13 cuts, with 12 quality starts, including a win at the CJ Cup, a 10th at the Genesis Invitational, a 13th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a runner-up at the Masters, a fifth at the Wells Fargo, an eighth at the PGA Championship, a win at the Canadian Open, a fifth at the U.S. Open, an eighth at the BMW Championship, and for what it’s worth, he did win the FedEx Cup as well. Rory didn’t miss a beat this fall swing either, with a runner-up at the BMW PGA Championship, a fourth at the Italian Open, a fourth at the Alfred Dunhill Links, a win at the CJ Cup, and a fourth at the DP World Tour Championship. Five starts this fall swing, five top-four finishes, with a runner-up and a win.
  • Rory is undoubtedly the second best driver of the ball to Jon Rahm in the world, ranking second in driving distance, and third in strokes gained off the tee. Rory would really need to improve his driving accuracy (127th) to eclipse Rahm, which I’m not sure is realistic, but his upside is still off the charts (+6.1 at the DP World Tour Championship, +6.0 at the CJ Cup, +6.5 at the Italian Open, +5.5 at the BMW Championship, +5.6 at the PGA Championship, and +5.5 at the CJ Cup). The 33-year-old gained over a stroke off the tee in 16 of 18 starts last year.
  • While Rory doesn’t have the ceiling iron performances that he’s able to conjure off the tee, but he hasn’t lost strokes on approach since the PLAYERS Championship. He’s had one bad iron week over the last 13 months. Rory ranks 22nd in proximity 50-125 yards, 19th in proximity 100-125 yards, fifth in proximity 125-150 yards, ninth in proximity 175-200 yards, sixth in proximity 200 yards plus, first in going for the green percentage on par fives, and fifth in hit green percentage. Rory’s wedge play struggles have always been overblown to me, and we can only speak positively about his long iron play. The four-time major winner has the ability to absolutely dominate with his driving distance and long iron play, which explain his ranking of third in par five scoring, and the fact that over 70% of the par fives on Tour are essentially long par fours to him. Rory actually embodies the Bryson’s ridiculous comments about how Augusta is a par 68.
  • The most underrated aspect of Rory’s game is his around the green play. For a decade, he’s been one of the best bunker players on Tour (12th in sand save percentage, 30th in scrambling, and 46th in scrambling from 30 yards plus). He’s gained strokes around the green in 14 of 18 starts last year, including +4.5 at the Italian Open, and a downright silly 7.8 strokes gained around the green at the Masters, which is consistently ranked as the hardest short game course on the entire schedule.
  • Rory embodies the type of volatility with the flat stick that should be viewed as a positive. He gained strokes putting in 11 of 18 starts last year, and while his bad weeks were bad, the ceiling is there as well (+6.6 at the Tour Championship, +9.8 at the U.S. Open, +5.9 at the Canadian Open, +5.2 at the Genesis Invitational, and +5.5 at the Dubai Desert Classic. Even more impressive is the fact that all of his ceiling performances have come on courses with different agronomy. Rory is just as deadly on pure Bent-grass, as he is on Bent/Poa blend, as his on Poa, as he is on Bermuda.
  • 2022 was his best putting season of his career by a quarter of a stroke per round. He ranked sixth in the money making range of 10-15 feet, ninth in putting from 15-20 feet, and 24th in putting 20-25 feet. The Norther Ireland native is one of the strongest mid-range putters on the PGA Tour, but he only ranks 143rd in putting inside 10 feet, and 76th in putting from four to eight. I will say this, Rory being an elite putter is more of a luxury than a necessity. He’s had historically great seasons as an average putter. It all comes down to timing his spike putting weeks with his best ball-striking weeks. Gaining 10 strokes putting at the U.S. Open and not winning is criminal. If you told me Rory gained 10 strokes putting at a major championship, I would ask how many strokes he won by. Yet of course, in typical Rory fashion, he happened to pair that 10 strokes gained putting with the fourth worst around the green performance of his entire career.
  • Rory has been the best major performer of his generation outside of Tiger. Across 55 major appearances, Rory has a 50% top-10 rate, which is downright absurd. He will likely be under 12/1 at every major this year. Rory has won at Royal Liverpool, and he is an honorary member of Oak Hill.
• The Bad 
  • The volume stinks, but there is reason for optimism. Rory played the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and Dubai Desert Classic last year in back-to-back weeks at the end of January. I would be surprised if he returns to the Middle East this year, which could open up one or two more PGA Tour starts in late January/early February. Rory does care about the European Tour and will inevitably play a few of those events. 12 quality starts is still top-15 on the PGA Tour, which is a remarkable accomplishment for only playing 15 times on the PGA Tour. Scottie Scheffler played nine more times than Rory, so I guess I can’t really fault anyone for playing the volume angle, especially on a player that is nearly as consistent and has a similar quality start rate.