By Andy Lack

Hi folks! The calendar golf season is right around the corner, and it’s time to get ready for our drafts. Season long fantasy golf is a concept that Rick and remain extremely bullish on, and I broke down on Monday all of the reasons why we believe it’s a completely untapped ecosystem. The most fun part about fantasy sports is the draft, and in the absence of golf tournaments until the first week of January, I will countdown each week by big board from 100-1. Here’s the upcoming schedule.

• 12/8//2022 (Thursday): Big Board breakdown (100-81)
• 12/12/2022 (Monday): Big Board breakdown (80-61)
• 12/14/2022 (Wednesday): Big Board breakdown (60-41)
• 12/19/2022 (Monday): Big Board Breakdown (40-21)
• 12/21/2022 (Wednesday): Big Board Breakdown (20-11)
• 12/26/2022 (Monday): N/A
• 12/28/2022 (Monday): Big Board Breakdown (10-1)

So without further ado, let’s dive into my rankings 20-11.

20. Aaron Wise (OWGR: 34)

• L12 Months True SG: 29th
• 2022 Money List Rank: 29th
• The Good 
  • Over the last 12 months, Aaron Wise ranks 29th in true strokes gained. With the improvement of his putting, Wise has turned into an incredibly well rounded player. Over the last six months, he shoots up to 23rd in the world.
  • The 26-year-old broke out in a big way last year, gaining over a stroke per round for the first time in his career. Wise went from gaining +0.5 strokes per round in 2021, to +1.08 in 2022. The Cape Town native has a strong case for most improved player.
  • In 23 starts last year, Wise made 18 cuts, with 13 top-30 finishes, including an eighth at the Shriners, a fifth at the CJ Cup, a sixth at the Mexico Open, and a runner-up at the Memorial. He got off to an incredible start this fall swing as well, with a sixth at the CJ Cup, a 15th at the Mayakoba, and a 22nd at the Houston Open. The biggest reason for his improvement is that Wise had been a negative putter for the last three years, before flipping to a slight gainer on the greens in 2022. While not as stark of a turnaround, the off the tee and approach improved incrementally as well.
  • Wise remains a solid driver of the ball, despite ranking 115th in driving accuracy. The ranking of 31st in strokes gained off the tee shows that Wise has enough pop (39th in driving distance) to gain strokes in this category without hitting fairways at an elite rate.
  • Wise also ranks fourth on Tour in par four scoring, 24th in par three scoring, and 25th in par five scoring.
  • His iron play is exceptional, as Wise is an above average flip wedge to middle iron player, but where he truly gains his biggest advantage is on long golf courses, Wise ranks eighth in proximity 200 yards plus, 21st in greens in regulation, and the upside is there (+7.8 at the Memorial, +7,8 at the Mexico Open, +5.5 at the Players).
  • None of Wise’s putting metrics are going to jump off the page, because he still totally hasn’t cleaned that up yet. What he has been able to do is increase his ceiling (+5.1 at the Houston Open, +5.3 at the CJ Cup, +6.5 at the TOUR Championship, +4.7 at the Memorial, +4.9 at the PGA Championship.
• The Bad 
  • Wise still really needs to improve his bunker play. Ranking 166th in sand save percentage is far from ideal.
  • The former Byron Nelson Championship winner has a game that should translate well to major championship golf, and I would not be the least bit surprised if he contended this year. So far, he’s made eight of 11 cuts, with three top-25s, but still zero top-10s. Last year, he finished top-35 at the PGA Championship, U.S. Open, and Open Champonship, while not playing in the Masters. I imagine he will be in the Masters next year, hopefully building upon a 17th in his lone appearance at Augusta.
  • Quite simply, I saw what Wise did last year and I believe he is on the precipice of potentially becoming a top-10 player in the world. He’s only 26-years-old, barely older than Morikawa, Scheffler, Hovland, and Zalatoris, despite never getting mentioned in that group. I would draft him over Tom Kim, Sahith, Fleetwood, Hatton, Conners, etc,

 

19. Shane Lowry (OWGR: 21)

• L12 Months True SG: 16th
• 2022 Money List Rank: 28th
• The Good 
  • Over the last 12 months, Lowry ranks 16th in true strokes gained, mainly buoyed by the fact that he has been a top-10 tee-to-green player in the world over the last 12 months. We have seen a bit of regression over the past six months (55th) and three months (77th) however.
  • Lowry did put together the best season of his career in 2022, gaining 1.39 strokes per round, the first time that he gained over a stroke per round since 2017.
  • The 35-year-old had only 16 qualified starts on the PGA Tour last year, which should be viewed as a negative. Lowry mixed in seven European Tour starts, where he was quite good, but those are useless to us for this format. In his 16 PGA Tour starts, Lowry made 13 cuts, with nine top-30 finishes, including a runner-up at The Honda Classic, where he blew it on the final hole, a 13th at the PLAYERS Championship, a 10th at the Canadian Open, a third at the Masters, a third at the Heritage, where he also possessed a chance to win, a 23rd at the PGA Championship, a 10th at the Canadian Open, and a 21st at the Open Championship. Lowry had been trending towards a win all season, and he finally broke through in September at the BMW Championship, where he gained over 1.5 strokes in all four major categories. His only PGA Tour start this fall swing came at the CJ Cup, where he did gain 7.8 strokes ball-striking.
  • Lowry is a solid driver of the ball, ranking 49th in driving distance and 82nd in driving accuracy, good for an overall ranking of 24th in total driving.
  • The iron play is even more of a strength. Lowry ranks ninth overall in strokes gained approach, 15th in proximity 50 to 125 yards, 22nd in proximity 100-125 yards, ninth in proximity 175-200 yards, and first in proximity 200 yards plus. The elite upside is there, as Lowry gained over three strokes on approach in 14 of 29 starts dating back to the end of last year, including +7.2 at the Irish Open, +5.3 at the Canadian Open, +8.4 at the RBC Heritage, +7.1 at the Honda Classic, +5.1 at the Abu Dhabi Championship, and +5.8 at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. Lowry has a claim as one of, if not the best, long iron player in the world, which easily explains why he’s had so much success at longer and harder golf courses and in major championships.
  • The six-time worldwide winner has made 24 of 38 cuts at majors, with 13 top-25s, seven top-10s, four top-fives, a runner-up at the 2016 U.S. Open at Oakmont, and a win at the 2019 Open Championship at Royal Portrush. He finished top-25 in three of the four majors last year, including an incredibly quiet third-place finish at the Masters. I would not even be remotely surprised if Lowry picked up another major in 2023, and I feel great about rolling him out at any major, or any hard course in general.
  • Lowry possesses an absolutely elite short game, and over the past year, he’s been the number one bunker player on the entire PGA Tour. Lowry also ranks third in scrambling.
• The Bad 
  • The putting remains the most volatile aspect of Lowry’s game, as he ranks 116th in three putt avoidance, 115th in putting average, 170th in putting from 10 to 15 feet, and 134th in putting from 15-20 feet. The fact that he ranks ninth in putting from 20 to 25 feet is encouraging, but I would expect we see some regression. He’s been fairly average in the most sustainable putting metrics, ranking 72nd in putting inside 10 feet, and 86th in putting from four to eight feet. I wish he possessed a little more putting upside, as Lowry has failed to gain over 5.7 strokes putting since the 2019 Canadian Open, where he finished runner-up.
  • Outside of the putting volatility, the even bigger concern with Lowry is the lack of volume. The Irishman surprisingly plays more on the European Tour than Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrrell Hatton, but given his consistency and upside in the bigger events, Lowry still deserves a look in the second or third round.

 

18. Daniel Berger (OWGR: 49)

• L12 Months True SG: 34th
• 2022 Money List Rank: 74th
• The Good 
  • Berger still ranks 34th in true strokes gained over the past year, but it’s hard to evaluate anything that he’s really done within the last six months, as the 29-year-old has been battling some mysterious injuries.
  • Last year, Berger only played 12 times, making nine cuts, with seven top-25 finishes, including a fifth at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, a fourth at the Honda Classic, a 13th at the PLAYERS, and a fifth at the Memorial. We haven’t seen him since the U.S. Open, but Berger actually looked quite good last year before he got hurt.
  • In 2021, the Florida native gained 1.35 strokes per round, and the prior year, he gained 1.53 strokes per round, which was the best season of his career. In 2020, Berger made the leap from a +0.5 strokes per round guy to a +1.5 strokes per round guy. Once a player crosses the 1.5 strokes per round threshold, they are generally a top-15 player in the world. At 29-years-old and entering the prime of his career, I have little reason to believe that Berger will not be able to pick right back right where he left off prior to the injury.
• The Bad 
  • We don’t really have any idea what his injury was or when exactly he will be back, which is unfortunately still the nature of golf reporting in 2022. In what other sport could a top-20 player in the world just stop playing, and not one media member feels the need to contact his agent or do any form of reporting on the nature of the injury?! I assume that he will be ready to go in January? If he falls to the beginning of the third round, or even the end of the second, I think the four-time PGA Tour winner is still worth a flier.
  • When drafting a player this high up, major performance is imperative, and while I believe Berger should still be able to qualify, he is on the verge of dropping outside of the top-50 in the OWGR. I don’t really view his major performance as a positive or negative. He’s been just okay. In 2021, he finished seventh at the U.S. Open and eighth at the Open Championship. The Florida State alumni does have a top-15 at every single major, and I do believe that he has the well rounded style of play that should translate to success in major championships.

 

17. Max Homa (OWGR: 16)

• L12 Months True SG: 14th
• 2022 Money List Rank: 14th
• The Good 
  • Over the last 12 months, Max Homa has emerged as a top-15 player in the world, and one of the most well-rounded players in the entire game. Homa joins Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, and Xander Schauffele as the only five players to rank top-50 in true strokes gained off the tee, approach, around the green, and putting. Pretty elite company I would say.
  • Homa is coming off the best season of his career by a healthy margin. In 2022, he gained 1.05 strokes per round. This was the first time that he gained over a stroke per round in his career. Statistically, Homa’s leap last year was one of the biggest on the PGA Tour. The Los Angeles native improved by +0.61 strokes per round from 2021 to 2022, which for context, is essentially making the leap from somewhere around the 90th best player in the world to somewhere around the 25th best player in the world. The reason for this leap is essentially just due to incremental improvements in all four major statistical categories.
  • In 23 starts last year, Homa made 20 cuts, with 13 top-30 finishes, including a win at the Fortinet, a 10th at the Genesis Invitational, a win at the Wells Fargo Championship, a 13th at the PGA Championship, and a fifth at the Memorial. He got off to an extremely strong start this fall swing as well, defending his title at the Fortinet, where he gained over three strokes in all four major categories.
  • Homa is rock solid off the tee, ranking 25th in strokes gained off the tee and 35th in total driving. He gained over four strokes off the tee four times last year (+5.1 at the Waste Management, +4.4 at the PLAYERS Championship, +5.9 at the Wells Fargo, and +4.9 at the Scottish Open).
  • The irons are equally as strong, as Homa ranks 36th in strokes gained approach, 12th in proximity 50-125 yards, and 25th in proximity 200 yards plus. There is some room for improvement with the middle irons, but Homa is equally as strong of a flip wedge player as he is a long iron player. I give a big boost to players that are strong at both, because it’s an indication that their game is well suited for both birdie-fests and major championships.
  • While not elite, the University of Cal alumni has turned into an impressive putter. When you are as strong of a ball-striker as Homa however, gaining a third of a stroke on the greens per round is more than acceptable. I would not be surprised if Homa took another step forward this year, as he ranked 19th in putting from four to eight feet, and 23rd in putting inside 10 feet, the two most sustainable putting metrics. The upside is there as well, as the five-time Homa had four starts where gained over four strokes putting last year, including +8.4 en route to victory at the Wells Fargo Championship.
• The Bad 
  • Homa is pretty weakness, but if we want to pick nits, I would point to volume and major championship performance. Of the elite players, 23 starts per year is strong, as only seven of the top-20 in my rankings have made 23 starts or more. It turns out, the better you get, the less golf you feel inclined to play, and Homa is now in the category of player that does not need grind in the weaker events to be in a strong position to win the FedEx Cup.
  • I only see it as a matter of time before Homa starts showing up in majors. Yet for what it’s worth, the five-time PGA Tour winner probably has the weakest major resume out of any player ranked in the top-20. I was encouraged by the fact that he made three of four major cuts last year, including a 13th at the PGA Championship, good for the best major performance of his career.

 

16. Jordan Spieth (OWGR: 14)

• L12 Months True SG: 31st
• 2022 Money List Rank: 17th
• The Good 
  • Over the past 12 months, Spieth ranks 31st in true strokes gained, which is largely due to the fact that he is a putrid 118th in true strokes gained putting.
  • Spieth gained 0.6 strokes per round last year, good for the second worst season of his career. The only season where he recorded a lower number was in 2020, where he basically disappeared. 2022 was also the worst putting season of his career, and the only time in his career that he was a negative putter across a full season.
  • With all of this being said, in 21 starts last year, Spieth made 16 cuts, with 10 top-30 finishes, including a runner-up at Pebble Beach, a win at the Heritage, a runner-up at the Byron Nelson, a seventh at the Charles Schwab, a 10th at the Scottish Open, and an eighth at the Open Championship. In a perfect world, I’d like to see Spieth notch 25 starts a year, as he has still yet to turn 30, but the 29-year-old remains pretty automatic in Texas and at his other favorite spots such as Harbor Town, Pebble Beach, the Plantation Course, Augusta National, and wherever the Open Championship is played at. Spieth has so many comfortable spots where he can show up and deliver regardless of form, which makes me feel better about him in the second round than I probably should.
  • There was a stretch last season where it appeared as if Spieth had turned into an awesome driver of the ball, and even though his driver fell off at the end of the season, he still gained 0.35 strokes off the tee, which is right around where he was at when he was one of the best players in the world between 2015 and 2018. Spieth has sneakily picked up some distance since then as well, and last year, he ranked 37th in driving distance and 150th in driving accuracy. If the distance gains are here to stay, the Dallas native can get away with sacrificing some accuracy. For a four start stretch between the Heritage and Charles Schwab, Spieth gained over three strokes off the tee in four straight starts.
  • The upside with the irons remains in-tact, and Spieth is still one of the best flip wedge players in the world (15th in proximity 50-125 yards). Yet of the elite players, he’s also one of the worst long iron players (94th in proximity 200 yards) expected to be drafted in this range.
  • The short game remains awesome as well, as Spieth ranks 27th in strokes gained around the green, and 40th in scrambling.
  • The 13-time PGA Tour winner remains a great option at the majors. He’s got five top-fives, two runner-ups, and a win in nine appearances at the Masters. Spieth has five top-10s, three top-fives, and a win in nine appearances at the Open Championship. While he has been less successful at the PGA and U.S. Open, I do believe the added distance should help him in both of those tournaments going forward.
• The Bad 
  • Spieth looked downright lost at times on the greens, ranking 108th in three putt avoidance, 137th in putting inside 10 feet, 127th in putting greater than 25 feet, 133rd in putting from 15-20 feet, 135th in putting from 20-25 feet, and 161st in putting from four to eight feet. It’s really the short putting that has been so painful to watch, but if your asking me to choose whether I would rather have a player’s putting stroke be broken or his full swing be broken, I would choose the putting stroke. I have full confidence that Spieth will pull out of it in 2023.

 

15. Hideki Matsuyama (OWGR: 20)

• L12 Months True SG: 21st
• 2022 Money List Rank: 12th
• The Good 
  • Over the past 12 months, Hideki has been the 21st best player in the world via true strokes gained. He has been trending in the wrong direction however if you shrink the sample size to six and three months.
  • Hideki gained over a stroke per round for the 10th consecutive season, and despite the fact that it often seems like he’s hurt, the eight-time PGA Tour winner has been one of the most consistent performers in the world over the past decade. 2022 was another typical Hideki season, and the putting actually looked a bit better than year’s past.
  • In 20 starts last year, Hideki made 16 cuts, with nine top-30 finishes, including a win at the Zozo Championship, a win at the Sony Open, an eighth at the Phoenix Open, a 14th at the Masters, and a fourth at the U.S. Open, before slowing down to end the season. It’s been a quiet start to 2023 for Hideki as well, with a 25th, 40th, and 34th in three fall swing events.
  • Hideki has made his money on the PGA Tour via elite iron play. The 30-year-old ranked sixth last year in strokes gained approach, 42nd in proximity 50-125 yards, first in proximity 125-150 yards, fifth in proximity 150-175 yards, and 12th in proximity 200 yards plus. In two starts last year, Hideki gained over nine (!!) strokes on approach. Many great players go their entire career without nearing that total! The former Masters champion is an elite iron player all the way through the bag, and has a claim as one of the best pure middle iron players in the entire world.
  • His short game remains immaculate as well, as Hideki ranked 46th in strokes gained around the green, 44th in sand save percentage, 17th in scrambling, and ninth in scrambling from greater than 30 yards.
  • The Japan native is a player we can definitely feel good about rolling out at every major. He’s made 10 of 11 cuts, with seven top-25s and a win at the Masters. He’s got six top-25s in 10 starts at the PGA Championship, seven top-25s in 10 starts at the US Open, and three top-25s in eight starts at the Open Championship. He’s recorded multiple top-25s in the majors every year dating back to 2014.
• The Bad 
  • 2022 was actually one of the better putting seasons of Hideki’s career, and he gained strokes putting in nine of 19 measured starts, including +7.3 at the Sony Open, good for the best putting performance of his career by a healthy margin. Where he really needs to improve is that key range of four to eight, where he’s only drilling 68% of his putts, good for 137th on Tour.
  • Hideki is always an injury risk, and he is very likely to withdraw once or twice a season. Still, in terms of reliability and consistency, Hideki plays more golf than many of the other elite players ranked in the top-20.

 

14. Cameron Young (OWGR: 17)

• L12 Months True SG: 15th
• 2022 Money List Rank: 10th
• The Good 
  • Over the past 12 months, Cameron Young has been the 15th best player in the world via true strokes gained, as well as the third best driver of the ball in the world over that same timespan.
  • In his first full season on the PGA Tour, Young gained 1.13 strokes per round, and was positive in all four major statistical categories, while emerging as a top-five driver of the ball in the world.
  • In 24 starts last year, Young made 17 cuts, with 13 top-30 finishes, including a runner-up at the Sanderson Farms, a runner-up at the Genesis Invitational, a third at the RBC Heritage, a runner-up at the Wells Fargo Championship, a third at the PGA Championship, a runner-up at the Open Championship, and a runner-up at the Rocket Mortgage. While his first career win eluded him in his rookie year, Young had a whopping seven top-threes last season. He had a legitimate chance on the back nine of Sunday to win three of the six biggest tournaments of the year.
  • The Wake Forest University product’s driving is truly something to marvel at. He ranks third in driving distance, averaging almost 320 yards off the box, and 122nd in driving accuracy. Despite not hitting a ton of fairways, he is so long that all he really needs to do is keep the ball on the planet and he will be well-positioned to gain strokes off the tee, which he ranked second in, behind only Jon Rahm. Young gained over three strokes off the tee in 13 of 24 measured starts last year, including +5.7 at the Phoenix Open, +5.2 at the Genesis Invitational, +6.1 at the Wells Fargo, +7 at the PGA Championship, +5.2 at the Open Championship, and +5.3 at the Rocket Mortgage.
  • The irons have been far more hit or miss, but what’s really encouraging is the fact that he ranks 11th in proximity 50-125 yards and 28th in proximity 200 yards plus. The middle irons need to improve, but I like that he is already a strong wedge player and long iron player. This easily explains why he’s excelled at both extremely hard courses and extremely easy courses. The +6.1 on approach that he gained at the Wells Fargo and the +5.1 at the CJ Cup speak to the fact that the approach upside exists.
  • Young had a legitimate chance to win both the PGA Championship and Open Championship, and I absolutely love the way that this year’s venues set up for him as well.
• The Bad 
  • While the putting has been okay, I wish he flashed more of an ability to spike. The +5.4 that he gained at the Sanderson Farms and the +5.9 at the Genesis were the only two times where he gained over five strokes putting on the season. He finished runner-up in both of those starts.

 

13. Sungjae Im (OWGR: 19)

• L12 Months True SG: 13th
• 2022 Money List Rank: 13th
• The Good 
  • Over the last year, Sungjae ranked 13th in true strokes gained. He is an extremely well-rounded player that ranked top-60 in all four major skill-sets. Only Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, and Tony Finau have been more consistent across the board. While he is weakness free, the strength of his game is undoubtedly the driver, as Sungjae ranked fourth in true strokes gained off the tee over that same timespan.
  • Sungjae gained 1.34 strokes per round last year, good for the best season of his career. It was his best off the tee season of his career, his best approach season of his career, and his best short game season of his career. It was not his best putting season, but there wasn’t some major drop-off either.
  • In 25 starts last year, Sungjae made 21 cuts, with 16 top-30 finishes. We aren’t getting the 30 start volume that his reputation suggests, but 16 quality starts is an extremely high number, and above many ranked in the top-10. It’s higher than Cam Young, Hideki, Lowry, Spieth, Homa, and every other player that is being drafted around him.
  • Highlights included a win at the Shriners, a ninth at the CJ Cup, and eighth at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, a sixth at the Farmer’s Insurance Open, an eighth at the Masters, a 10th at the Memorial, a runner-up at the 3M Open, and a runner-up at the Wyndham. He kicked off the 2022-2023 season with a bang as well, finishing seventh at the Shriners, with top-35 finishes at both the Zozo and CJ Cup.
  • Despite ranking a modest 71st in driving distance, Sungjae is one of the more accurate drivers on Tour, ranking 27th in driving accuracy. He’s been able to parlay plus distance and borderline elite accuracy into a top-10 ranking in both strokes gained off the tee and total driving. The 24-year-old has now gained strokes off the tee in 13 (!!) straight measured starts, the longest streak in golf. His driver has become one of the more consistent weapons in the game.
  • Sungjae’s approach play is strong too, as he ranks 42nd in proximity 50-125 yards and 16th in proximity 200 yards plus. There is room for improvement with the middle irons, but similar to Cam Young, the fact that Sungjae is so strong with both his flip wedges and his long irons explains why he has had success on both short and easy courses, as well as long and difficult courses. We haven’t seen the high-end elite iron play of +6 and above, but Sungjae still gained over 2.5 strokes on approach in eight or 24 measured starts, including +5.4 at the Shriners, +5 at the Houston Open, and +5.2 at the 3M Open.
  • Around the green is a massive strength for Sungjae as well, who ranks 26th in sand save percentage, ninth in scrambling, and 12th in overall strokes gained around the greens.
  • The two-time PGA Tour winner still gained strokes putting last year, but it was the weakest aspect of his game. Sungjae ranked an impressive 21st in putting inside 10 feet and 49th in putting from four to eight feet, the most sustainable of putting metrics. The 2019 Rookie of the Year gained strokes putting in 15 out of 24 starts last year, including +5.5 at the Shriners and +7.2 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
• The Bad 
  • I’ve been underwhelmed by Sungjae’s major performance, as he’s only made seven of 13 cuts. While he has a runner-up and an eighth at the Masters, Sungjae has zero top-15s in 13 combined starts at the PGA Championship, U.S. Open, and Open Championship.

 

12. Sam Burns (OWGR: 13)

• L12 Months True SG: 22nd
• 2022 Money List Rank: 7th
• The Good 
  • Over the last 12 months, Sam Burns ranks 22nd in true strokes gained, mainly buoyed by the fact that he’s been a top-five putter in the world during that same timeframe. That number has been trending down over the last six and three months.
  • Last year, Burns gained 1.3 stokes per round, good for the best full season of his career, and the second year in a row where he has gained over 1.15 strokes per round. It was the best iron season of his career, his best putting season of his career, and the only time in his young career where he has gained strokes around the green.
  • In 23 starts last year, Burns made 17 cuts, with 15 top-30 finishes, including a win at the Sanderson Farms, a fifth at the CJ Cup, a seventh at the Houston Open, a ninth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a win at the Valspar, and a fourth at the Canadian Open. A 65% quality start percentage is damn good, and likely worthy of a first round pick. I think Fitzpatrick is a better player than Burns, but Burns may end up being more valuable due to the five extra opportunities per yeah that he gives himself per year.
  • The 26-year-old has turned into an extremely strong iron player, ranking seventh in proximity 50-125 yards, fourth in proximity 100-125 yards, 12th in proximity 125-150 yards, 36th in proximity 175-200 yards, 64th in proximity 200 yards plus, and 18th in strokes gained approach. The elite upside is there as well, as Burns gained 8.3 strokes on approach at the Sanderson Farms, 7.0 strokes on approach at the Valspar, and 9.4 strokes on approach at the RBC Canadian Open.
  • The Louisiana native is an excellent putter, particularly on his beloved Bermuda-grass. Burns ranks 23rd in three-putt avoidance, 18th in putting inside 10 feet, fifth in putting average, 33rd in putting 10-15 feet, and 39th in putting from four to eight feet. If he gets on the right side of variance with the longer putts, watch out. Burns gained over three strokes putting 50% of his starts last year, about as strong as a metric as one could hope for when it comes to putting upside. Highlights include +6.0 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, +5.2 at the Valspar, +5.1 at the PGA Championship, +5.0 at the Charles Schwab, and +6.1 at the Open Championship. Just to show his range as a golfer, Burns won the Sanderson Farms losing 2.0 strokes putting.
• The Bad 
  • Burns has plenty of pop off the tee (24th in driving distance), but his lack of accuracy (162nd) prevents him from being anything more than a decent driver of the ball (86th in strokes gained off the tee).
  • Is Burns the type of player that’s going to win 15 times on the PGA Tour, without ever winning a major? In 10 major starts, Burns has made six cuts, with just one top-25, a 20th at last year’s PGA Championship. I was at least encouraged by the fact that he made three of four cuts at the majors last year, including the aforementioned 20th at the PGA Championship, as well as a 27th at the U.S. Open. Still, it’s hard to ignore how much better Burns has been in easier scoring tests than he has been in harder scoring ones.
  • The 10 to 15 range is extremely challenging. One could make an argument for any of Burns, Fitzpatrick, Cam Young, Sungjae, or Hideki. I give the slight edge to Burns in this format because he plays the most weak field events and has the strongest ratio of volume to quality starts. Remember, if Sam Burns wins the Valspar, that’s just as valuable as Matt Fitzpatrick winning the U.S. Open.

 

11. Matt Fitzpatrick (OWGR: 10)

• L12 Months True SG: 8th
• 2022 Money List Rank: 8th
• The Good 
  • Over the past year, Matt Fitzpatrick has emerged as the eighth best player in the world via true strokes gained, largely buoyed by the fact that he is now a top-10 driver of the ball in the world and possesses a top-five short game as well.
  • Fitzpatrick put together the best season of his career in 2022, gaining 1.5 strokes per round. Once a player crosses the 1.5 strokes per round threshold for a full season, they are a top-15 player in the world. It was the Englishman’s best off the tee season of his career, as well as his best around the green season of his career.
  • In 19 starts last year, Fitzpatrick made 16 cuts, with 14 top-30 finishes, including a sixth at Pebble Beach, a 10th at the Waste Management, a ninth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a fifth at the Valspar, a 14th at the at the Masters, a runner-up at the Wells Fargo, a fifth at the PGA Championship, a 10th at the Canadian Open, a win at the U.S. Open, a sixth at the Scottish Open, a  21st at the Open Championship, and a fifth at the FedEx St. Jude’s. A 57.9% top-15 percentage across nearly 20 starts is incredible. There are no signs of slowing down either, as this fall he finished runner-up at the Italian Open, 13th at the CJ Cup, and fifth at the DP World Tour Championship.
  • Fitzpatrick has morphed from a bunter into a player who has enough distance to dominate on any golf course. His combination of plus distance and plus accuracy has turned him into a top-10 driver of the ball in the world, and he actually seems to be getting better. The 28-year-old finished the season gaining strokes off the tee in 12 straight starts, including +4.6 at the Masters, +4.8 at the Wells Fargo, +5.1 at the Canadian Open, +4.8 at the U.S. Open, and +4.3 at the CJ Cup.
  • The short game is equally as special, as Fitzpatrick ranked sixth in sand save percentage, first in scrambling, seventh in scrambling from greater than 30 yards, and seventh in strokes gained around the green.
  • He rates out extremely high in the most sustainable putting metrics (seventh in putting inside 10 feet, sixth in putting from four to eight feet). On the contrary, Fitzpatrick ranked 147th in putting from 20-25 feet and 132nd in putting greater than 25 feet. If he finds himself on the right side of luck next year with the longer putts, watch out.
  • We should feel great about rolling out Fitzpatrick at any of the four majors. He’s got three top-25 finishes in eight starts at the Masters, two top-25s, including a fifth last year, in seven starts at the PGA Championship, three top-25s, including a win last year in seven starts at the U.S. Open, and two top-25s in seven starts at the Open Championship. The eight-time worldwide winner was one of only two players to finish top-25 at all four majors last year, and I have no reason to believe he won’t keep it rolling.
• The Bad
  • Fitzpatrick is undeniably one of the ten best players in the world, but the only reason why he isn’t higher in these rankings is volume. Using a first round pick on a player who makes only 18 qualified starts is squeamish. Still, Fitzpatrick gave you a quality start in 13 of 18 events last year. For context, Sahith played in 31 tournaments, but only recorded 11 quality starts. Sahith is an excellent player, but I use this example to prove that volume isn’t everything. Sahith made 13 more starts than Fitzpatrick and provided two less quality performances.
  • I have little doubt that Fitzpatrick will improve this given his maniacal work ethic, but the area of his game where there is statistically the most room to grow is his iron play. Fitzpatrick ranks outside the top-100 in every proximity bucket from 100 to 175 yards, and outside of the top-50 in every proximity bucket from 50 to 275 yards. At least the upside is there, as he gained 5.7 strokes on approach at the U.S. Open, +5.4 at the Italian Open, and +4.9 at the DP World Tour Championship. Given how rapidly Fitzpatrick has been ascending in other statistical categories, I will be curious to watch this year whether or not the irons take a step forward.