By Andy Lack

Hi folks! The calendar golf season is right around the corner, and it’s time to get ready for our drafts. Season long fantasy golf is a concept that Rick and remain extremely bullish on, and I broke down on Monday all of the reasons why we believe it’s a completely untapped ecosystem. The most fun part about fantasy sports is the draft, and in the absence of golf tournaments until the first week of January, I will countdown each week by big board from 100-1. Here’s the upcoming schedule.

• 12/8//2022 (Thursday): Big Board breakdown (100-81)
• 12/12/2022 (Monday): Big Board breakdown (80-61)
• 12/14/2022 (Wednesday): Big Board breakdown (60-41)
• 12/19/2022 (Monday): Big Board Breakdown (40-21)
• 12/21/2022 (Wednesday): Big Board Breakdown (20-11)
• 12/26/2022 (Monday): N/A
• 12/28/2022 (Monday): Big Board Breakdown (10-1)

So without further ado, let’s dive into my rankings 40 to 21.

40. Alex Noren (OWGR: 39)

• L12 Months True SG: 25th
• 2022 Money List Rank: 67th
• The Good 
  • Over the last 12 months, Alex Noren has quietly been a top-25 player in the world via true strokes gained. This is mainly due to the fact that he remains a top-12 putter in the world, and his ball-striking hasn’t missed a beat over this time period either.
  • Noren played 22 times on the PGA Tour last year, making 15 cuts, with 10 top-30 finishes, so he’s essentially providing you with a quality start close to 50% of the time that he tees it up. Highlights include a sixth at the Phoenix Open, a fifth at the Honda Classic, and a runner-up at the Barracuda. The Swede has shown zero signs of slowing down either. The 40-year-old finished runner-up at the Dunhill Links in October, fourth at the Houston Open, where he gained over nine strokes ball-striking, and most recently, solo second at the DP World Tour Championship in late November. Last year was Noren’s best season since 2018, and he’s on track to top that in 2023. He possesses elite upside in two incredibly important skill-sets, approach and putting. Noren gained over five strokes on approach on four occasions last year, and over four strokes putting on five separates starts as well. If he can somehow find a way to improve his long iron play (167th in proximity from 200 yards plus), the sky is the limit.
  • Noren is an assassin on and around the greens, ranking first on the PGA Tour last year in putting from 10 to 15 feet. He also ranked fourth in three-putt avoidance, 18th in strokes gained putting, 16th in sand save percentage, and 12th scrambling.
• The Bad 
  • The 10-time European Tour winner could absolutely stand to improve his driving, as he ranks just 100th in driving distance, 148th in driving accuracy, and unsurprisingly, 112th in strokes gained off the tee.
  • Noren should have a fine opportunity to qualify for all of the majors, although he hasn’t really been able to do much damage (17/32 cuts, 8 top-25s, 2 top-10s) over the course of his career. The Open has by far been his best major, where he possesses top-10s in both 2012 and 2017. I am not encouraged however by the fact that he’s missed his last three major cuts and has not played in the Masters since 2019.

 

39. Tom Hoge (OWGR: 36)

• L12 Months True SG: 35th
• 2022 Money List Rank: 22nd
• The Good 
  • Tom Hoge has quietly emerged as a bonafide top-35 player in the world over the past year, largely buoyed by world class iron play.
  • Hoge is coming off a year where he played 31 times, making 19 cuts, with eight top-20 finishes, including a fourth at the RSM Classic, a runner-up at the American Express, a ninth at the PGA Championship, a fourth at the 3M Open, and of course, the breakthrough victory at Pebble Beach. The 33-year-old immediately proved that 2022 was far from a flash in the pan with four straight top-13 finishes to begin the fall swing.
  • The reason for his emergence begins and ends with iron play. Hoge has gained over three strokes on approach eight times in the last calendar year, including some absolutely elite performances. He gained 7.8 strokes on approach at the PGA Championship, 10.4 at the 3M Open, 7.0 at the Shriners, and 6.0 at the CJ Cup. Overall, Hoge gained 0.6 strokes on approach per round last year, by far the best season of his career. This is surely an unsustainable pace, but he’s already gaining 1.4 strokes on approach through 14 rounds in the new season.
  • Hoge’s short to middle irons remain amongst the best in the world. He’s 12th on Tour in proximity 50-125 yards, third on Tour in proximity from 100-125 yards, first on Tour in proximity 175-200 yards, and he’s no slouch with the long irons either (45th in proximity 200 yards plus). There are very few players in the world who are more trustable with an iron in their hands than Hoge. The North Carolina native also ranked fourth last year in par three scoring average.
  • Hoge has done enough to qualify for the majors and elevated events, and while he has yet to find much success in majors (7/10 cuts made, with just 1 top-25), a ninth last year at the PGA Championship is incredibly encouraging.
• The Bad 
  • The iron play really carries him, and all other aspects of Hoge’s game are pretty hit or miss. He’s not a particularly elite driver of the ball or putter. He generally does enough in these categories for it not to be a huge concern, and so far in 2023, he might have turned a corner. Hoge is gaining 0.6 strokes putting per round in 2023, which is over half a stroke better than oany other putting year in his entire career.
  • The TCU alumni still has one bankable skill-set that we can count on. He’s a top-20 iron player in the world over a year plus sample size, and a top-10 middle to short iron player in the world as well. This alone, will make him a ton of money on the PGA Tour, but he is not a super-star.

 

38. Brian Harman (OWGR: 23)

• L12 Months True SG: 24th
• 2022 Money List Rank: 32nd
• The Good 
  • Over the last 12 months, Brian Harman has been the quietest top-25 player in the world you will ever find. He ranks top-60 in all four major statistical categories, and there are absolutely zero signs of slowing down, as he is 19th in true strokes gained over the last six months, and eighth in true strokes gained over the last three months.
  • Harman played 26 times last year, making 19 cuts, with eight top-20 finishes, including a third at the American Express, a fifth at the Valspar, a ninth at the Wells Fargo, an eighth at the Travelers, a sixth at the Open Championship, and a third at the FedEx St. Jude’s. I can’t remember him playing a role in any of those tournaments, but the results are there. This fall swing, he’s already finished 15th at the Shriners, and 23rd at the CJ Cup, before recording back-to-back runner-up finishes at the Mayakoba and RSM Classic. Harman is an incredibly well-rounded player, but it’s been the irons that have allowed him to excel in the new season. The 35-year-old has gained over 1.3 strokes on approach in six straight starts.
  • Despite being one of the shorter players on Tour (159th in driving distance), Harman still delivers off the tee because he is incredibly precise, ranking 21st in driving accuracy percentage.
  • Do not be fooled by his lack of length either, as Harman is one of the better long iron players on Tour too, ranking 31st in proximity from 200 yards plus.
  • The putting comes and goes, but overall, is far from a weakness. The University of Georgia standout’s putting metrics are fairly sustainable, as he ranks 28th in putting inside 10 feet, 31st in putting from four to eight feet, and 24th in putting from 10 to 15 feet. We can safely assume he’ll keep the putter going, as he did all of this without being the benefactor of any luck (191st in putting from greater than 25 feet).
  • The short game is rock solid as well, as Harman ranks 10th in sand save percentage, 28th in scrambling, 20th in scrambling from greater than 30 yards, and 49th in strokes gained around the green.
  • At 35-years-old, Harman still has plenty left in the tank, and he’s gained strokes to the field every year from 2014 until the present. He’s gained over three strokes ball-striking in 11 starts over the last calendar year, and you can pretty much play him anywhere. He’s not even a bad sixth man in the majors or at elevated events. He almost won a U.S. Open at the 7,900 yard Erin Hills, and just finished top-six at St. Andrew’s.
• The Bad 
  • I will be going out of my way to draft Harman this year, but I am fully aware of his limitations as a player. There are other players in this range with breakout potential that Harman simply does not possess. Yet still, I don’t expect him to be over-drafted because he’s such an un-sexy pick. I would imagine I’m far higher on him than consensus.

 

37. Seamus Power (OWGR: 28)

• L12 Months True SG: 32nd
• 2022 Money List Rank: 35th
• The Good 
  • Over the last 12 months, Seamus Power ranks 32nd in true strokes gained, so even in spite of his tendency to accumulate results against weaker competition, the Irishman is a bonafide top-35 guy in the world, and he certainly deserves to be in the Ryder Cup conversation.
  • In 26 starts last year, Power made 18 cuts, with 14 top-30 finishes, including a fourth at the RSM Classic, a third at the Sony Open, a ninth at Pebble Beach, a quarter-finals appearance at the Match Play, a 27th at the Masters, a ninth at the PGA Championship, and a 12th at the U.S. Open. Despite being known for simply showing up in alternate field and fall swing events, Power was one of the only players on Tour to finish top-30 in three of the only four majors last year.
  • He got off to about as strong of a start as one would hope for this season, with a win at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, and back-to-back top-fives at the Mayakoba and RSM Classic.
  • Power’s stats can be a bit misleading because he can run so hot and cold. While Power’s had some great iron performances and possesses a lot of upside on approach, he’s also had multiple starts where he’s lost over seven strokes on approach.
  • We’ll be getting the 35-year-old in all of the majors again, and while I have concerns about Power’s ability to compete at these venues because of his poor long iron play, he’s certainly okay to start. Power gained 4.8 strokes on approach at the Country Club, 3.5 on approach at Southern Hills, and 4.4 ball-striking at the Masters, all longer golf courses.
• The Bad 
  • When we start comparing Power to the players that he is ranked around, his ball-striking does fall short. He’s a fine driver of the ball, with average length and average accuracy, and certainly some upside with the irons (+5.6 at the RSM, +4.8 at the US Open, +3.5 at the Travelers, +3.5 at the PGA Championship, and +3.2 at Pebble Beach). Yet he still ranks outside the top-150 in proximity from 200 yards plus, and the short iron play isn’t all that much better.

 

36. Taylor Montgomery (OWGR: 63)

• L12 Months True SG: 39th
• 2022 Money List Rank: N/A
• The Good 
  • Over the last 12 months, Taylor Montgomery is a top-35 player in the world, and the number one putter in the world.
  • After a standout season on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2022, where he played 17 times, made 14 cuts, and recorded a whopping 13 top-15 finishes and six top-fives, Montgomery earned his Tour card for the 2022-2023 season.
  • He came out of the gates firing, with a third at the Fortinet in his first event of the season, gaining an outlandish 11.2 strokes putting. The Las Vegas native just kept rolling, making all seven cuts, with six top-15 finishes.
  • Montgomery might be the most difficult player to evaluate in these entire rankings because we do not have strokes gained data from his standout season last year on the Korn Ferry Tour. Even more perplexing is that fact that he’s been on a generational putting run, which provides little to no insight into who he actually is as a player. Montgomery has now gained over 4.7 strokes putting in four of six measured starts this year. Some players take an entire career to put together that many elite putting performances. The numbers are truly staggering. Montgomery ranks fifth in one putt percentage, 18th in putting inside 10 feet, sixth in putting average, 20th in putting from 10-15 feet, 26th in putting from 15-20 feet, eighth in putting from four to eight feet, and seventh in putts per round.
  • We can still gleam some information from the data we have on Montgomery through seven starts this year, and he does appear to be a fairly long hitter, ranking 38th in driving distance and 19th in club head speed. The UNLV alumni fails to dominate in that category because he is only 113th in driving accuracy. 13th in birdies or better percentage makes sense given the scorching hot flat-stick.
  • He does appear to possess a rock solid short game as well, ranking 22nd in sand save percentage, 34th in scrambling, and 15th in scrambling from greater than 30 yards.
• The Bad 
  • We have little evidence thus far that Montgomery is a good iron player, as he ranks outside the top-50 in all proximity buckets from 50 to 250 yards, although this is less harmful when you are such an elite putter.
  • At #63 in the OWGR, Montgomery is not a shoe-in for the majors, although he certainly is in an okay position to qualify.
  • Ultimately, the type of player profile that Montgomery possesses is one that I usually avoid at all costs, but the 27-year-old is an interesting case. I have a hard time believing that his success on the KFT was solely due to a scorching hot putter. Montgomery did gain over three strokes off the tee at both the Shriners and CJ Cup, and over 2.4 on approach at the Sanderson Farms as well. Even if the putter does regress, I have to believe that his run on the KFT was indicative of high end ball-striking upside as well. I would imagine that I am still lower on Montgomery than consensus, but I wouldn’t let him fall anywhere past the fourth round.

 

35. Keith Mitchell (OWGR: 59)

• L12 Months True SG: 36th
• 2022 Money List Rank: 37th
• The Good 
  • Over the last year, Keith Mitchell has emerged as a legitimate top-40 player, and a top-10 driver of the ball in the world.
  • The University of Georgia alumni played 26 times last season, made 20 cuts, with 10 top-20 finishes, including a third at the CJ Cup, a seventh at the Sony Open, a 10th at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, a ninth at the Honda Classic, a seventh at the RBC Canadian Open, and a sixth at the Travelers Championship. I don’t know if 2021-2022 counts as a breakthrough season, but it was certainly the strongest of Mitchell’s career (+0.82 strokes gained). The 30-year-old has gotten off to a decent start this year as well, with a ninth at the Houston Open where he gained 5.7 strokes on approach.
  • Mitchell is a downright dominant driver of the ball. In 26 starts last year, he only lost strokes off the tee twice, and finished the season ranked second in total driving, fourth in strokes gained off the tee, 18th in driving distance, 21st in club head speed, and 73rd in driving accuracy. The ability to dominate off the tee also propelled him to rank 12th in par five scoring and 24th in birdie average.
  • Mitchell is a strong putter as well, although 133rd in putting inside 10 feet and 118th in putting from four to eight feet is not exactly what we love to see in terms of sustainability. Mitchell ranked 22nd in putting from 10 to 15 feet, 12th in putting from 15-20 feet, and 30th in putting from greater than 25 feet, which is admittedly more luck based. In a perfect world, I would like to see him start cleaning it up inside 10 feet. It’s hard to count on making bombs forever.
  • The short game is far from a weakness as well. Mitchell is a top-50 bunker player who also ranks 20th in scrambling, and 14th in scrambling from greater than 30 yards.
• The Bad 
  • Mitchell’s biggest weakness is his iron play, as he ranked 111th in strokes gained approach last year. With that being said, he’s actually a fairly strong long iron player, but he ranks outside the top-80 in every proximity bucket from 100 to 200 yards. This is easily an area of his game that could and should be improved. I’m encouraged by the fact that he gained 5.7 on approach at the Houston Open as a sign that he may have turned a corner.
  • At #59 in the world, Mitchell is right on the bubble for the major championships. He’s only played in four of them in his career, with a 34th at the PGA Championship last year as his only top-40.

 

34. Russell Henley (OWGR: 32)

• L12 Months True SG: 26th
• 2022 Money List Rank: 44th
• The Good 
  • Over the past year, Russell Henley ranks 26th in true strokes gained. He’s been a top-10 iron player in the world over the past year, with a top-15 short game as well.
  • The 33-year-old is coming off the best season of his career, where he gained over a stroke to the field. The main reason for this is iron play, as he has now gained over 0.8 strokes on approach to the field in three straight years. He got to +1 strokes gained last season as an essentially neutral driver of the ball and a negative putter. That’s how special of an iron player that he is.
  • In 22 starts last year, Henley made 19 cuts, with 10 top-20 finishes, including a playoff loss at the Sony Open, a seventh at the Houston Open, and a fifth at the Wyndham. As devastating of a loss that the playoff in Hawaii was, Henley was able to avenge it this fall with a triumph at the Mayakoba.
  • Henley’s upside with the irons is special, as he’s gained over three strokes on approach 10 times in the last year, including +7.3 at the Shriners, +6.7 at the Sony, +11.5 at the PLAYERS, and +7.8 at the Wyndham. He ranked second on Tour last year in strokes gained approach, third in proximity 50-125 yards, 10th in proximity from 100-125 yards, 16th in proximity 125-150 yards, 15th in proximity 150-175 yards, and seventh in greens in regulation. Pound for pound, Henley is probably the best in the world from 50-175 yards.
  • For what it’s worth, the Georgia native is an incredibly accurate driver of the ball as well, ranking 14th in driving accuracy percentage, and 14th in total driving. His lack of distance hurts him, but we can see why his game fits so well at short, positional golf courses.
  • Henley will be in the majors after his win at the Mayakoba, and he’s quietly had some nice success at the bigger tournaments. The four-time PGA Tour winner has made 22 of 32 cuts in majors, with nine top-25s, and zero top-10s, but he was right in the mix at the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines before fading on Sunday.
• The Bad 
  • Outside of his win at the Mayakoba, which we do not have strokes gained for, Henley has lost strokes putting in 12 straight measured starts. He ranks 143rd in three putt avoidance, 170th in putting inside 10 feet, and 160th in putting from four to eight, good for a ranking of 148th in strokes gained putting. His putting is a fairly blatant black mark on a really strong player.
  • For what it’s worth, Henley is also a very poor bunker player with a volatile short game, ranking 188th in sand save percentage and 153rd in scrambling.

 

33. Keegan Bradley (OWGR: 25)

• L12 Months True SG: 18th
• 2022 Money List Rank: 27th
• The Good 
  • I’m sure many will be surprised to hear how truly good of a player that Keegan Bradley has been over the last year. Over the last 12 months, the Vermont native has been a bonafide top-20 player in the world, and easily a top-20 ball-striker in the world as well. If we shrink the sample size to the last three months, Keegan has been the sixth best player in the world.
  • Over the past two years, the five-time PGA Tour winner has experienced a bit of a career renaissance, gaining 0.86 and 0.62 strokes in 2021 and 2022 respectively. Last year, Bradley played 25 times, making 19 cuts, with 10 top-30 finishes, including a seventh at the Zozo, a fifth at the PLAYERS, an eighth at the Valero Texas Open, a runner-up at the Wells Fargo, and a seventh at the U.S. Open. Keegan is the only player to have finished top-seven at both the U.S. Open and the PLAYERS, so he’s starting to really show up in the big tournaments as well.
  • The 36-year-old is already off to a great start this year as well, finally snapping his four year winless draught with a win overseas at the Zozo Championship.
  • We’ve always known what Keegan can do with his irons, but the reason for his recent improvement has more to do with the flat-stick. The St. John’s University alumni gained a whopping 9.7 strokes putting at the Wells Fargo and 6.1 strokes putting at the Sanderson Farms. There was a time when I was worried that Keegan didn’t possess the upside with the putter to win again, and while we do not have strokes gained from the Zozo, he alleviated that fear with flying colors.
  • Keegan remains a rock solid driver of the ball. He’s still got plenty of distance (44th in driving distance), and he’s accurate enough (46th in driving accuracy) to be able to consistently gain strokes off the tee (23rd). The irons are still the best part of his game. Keegan ranked 29th in strokes gained approach, and I would say he has a claim as one of the best middle iron player in the world (15th in proximity 150-175 yards, 16th in proximity 175-200 yards). He’s a solid long iron player as well, ranking 67th in proximity from 200 yards plus.
  • Keegan will be in the major championships, and he has the profile of a player that should raise his baseline on those style of tests. In 37 major starts, Keegan has made 25 cuts, with 10 top-25s, four top-10s, three top-fives, and a win at the 2011 PGA Championship at Atlanta Athletic Club. Could Keegan win another major? It’s unlikely, but it wouldn’t shock me either. Oak Hill is an incredibly good spot for him and it’s not all that far away from his native Vermont!
• The Bad 
  • As previously alluded to, 2022 was his best putting season since 2015, but he still ranked 124th in putting inside 10 feet, 143rd in putting from four to eight feet, and 180th in putting from 15-20 feet. With that being said, we’ve started to see incremental improvements (12th in three putt avoidance, 30th in putting from 10-15 feet).
  • The other concern would be how poor he has been out of the sand (128th in sand save percentage), and the short game in general hasn’t been a ton to write home about (109th in scrambling from greater than 30 yards, 118th in scrambling).
  • I have no concept of where Bradley will be drafted, but I would be weary of players that won over the fall swing and the recency bias surrounding that. I would still have had a ton of interest on Bradley had he not won the Zozo, but he’s not a player I would recommend reaching on.

 

32. Adam Scott (OWGR: 35)

• L12 Months True SG: 43rd
• 2022 Money List Rank: 40th
• The Good 
  • Last year, Adam Scott played 19 times on the PGA Tour, only missing two cuts, with a quiet seven top-15 finishes, including a fifth at the CJ Cup, a fourth at the Genesis Invitational, a 14th at the U.S. Open, a 15th at the Open Championship, a fifth at the FedEx St. Jude’s, and a fifth at the BMW Championship. 2022 was a really strong season for the 42-year-old, who clearly has some left in the  tank. There’s a reason why he didn’t go to LIV, and I believe it has a lot do with his desire to still compete against the best in the world and win major championships.
  • In my opinion, Scott is still an easy plug and play at the majors. He’s got nearly a 50% top-25 rate in 21 starts at the Masters, over a 50% top-25 rate at the PGA Championship, close to a 50% top-25 rate at the Open Championship, and while the U.S. Open has been his weakest major, he’s still had some really nice performances in that tournament, and has failed to finish outside of the top-40 in his last four starts here.
  • The Australian remains a rock solid wedge player, a great middle iron player (28th in proximity 150-175 yards, 14th in proximity 175-200 yards), and one of the best long iron players (9th in proximity 200 yards plus) in the game.
  • Scott has also turned into a pretty adept putter at this stage of his career, ranking eighth in putting from 20-25 feet, which is a bit lucky, but he’s also 25th from four to eight feet, which is far more sustainable.
• The Bad 
  • The 31-time worldwide winner still has plenty of distance (15th in driving distance) off the tee, but he’s lost accuracy (163rd in driving accuracy), which certainly holds him back off the tee.
  • The biggest detractor for me when it comes to Scott is how much he is going to play compared to other golfers in this range. I still believe that he is a superior payer to Davis Riley at this stage of his career, but Riley may end up playing ten more times than Scott, thus providing far more value.

 

31. Davis Riley (OWGR: 66)

• L12 Months True SG: 71st
• 2022 Money List Rank: 33rd
• The Good 
  • Over the last 12 months, Riley has ranked 71st in true strokes gained, and those numbers have actually been trending in the wrong direction when we shrink the sample size to six (100th in true strokes gained) and three months (117th in true strokes gained).
  • The Mississippi native burst onto the scene last year with an incredibly impressive rookie season. In 29 starts last year, Riley made 20 cuts, with 11 top-30 finishes, including a seventh at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, a playoff loss at the Valspar, a fifth at the Mexico Open, a ninth at the Byron Nelson, a fourth at the Charles Schwab, and a 13th at the PGA Championship. He’s gotten off to a decent start this season too, making six of seven cuts, but he hasn’t finished better than 19th at the Sanderson Farms.
  • In terms of what he does well, Riley is fairly consistent off the tee, ranking eighth in total driving, 41st in strokes gained off the tee, 43rd in driving distance, and 67th in driving accuracy. It’s hard to complain about above average distance and above average accuracy, Riley also makes a ton of birdies, ranking 18th last year in birdies or better percentage.
  • The University of Alabama standout also possesses elite upside with his irons, gaining over three strokes on approach eight times last year, including +6.7 at the U.S. Open, +5.1 at the Memorial, +7.7 at the Charles Schwab, and +6.4 at the PGA Championship. All of this was done in a row, and it all came on hard golf courses with great fields. His bad weeks hurt his overall stats, but Riley is a much better iron player than his numbers even suggest.
• The Bad 
  • Riley has definitely got some putting upside, gaining 9.4 strokes putting at the Mexico Open, and 7.1 at the Valspar. Still, his overall numbers are weak because he struggles with a lack of consistency.
  • The short game is a bit of a weakness as well, ranking 113th in strokes gained around the green, 126th in sand save percentage, 131st in scrambling, and 112th in scrambling from over 30 yards.
  • Overall, I believe in the 26-year-old’s talent, and he’s already shown an ability to go toe to toe with some of the best players in the world in big time tournaments. Riley will definitely be on my radar as we near the third and fourth round.

 

30. Taylor Pendrith (OWGR: 106)

• L12 Months True SG: 52nd
• 2022 Money List Rank: 56th
• The Good 
  • There’s a lot to like about Taylor Pendrith, who over the past 12 months, ranks 52nd in true strokes gained, and over that same time-span, has been a top-five driver of the ball in the world.
  • Last year, Pendrith played 21 times despite missing almost four months with an injury. He made 16 cuts, with 10 top-30 finishes, including a fifth at the Bermuda Championship, a 13th at the PLAYERS, a second at the Rocket Mortgage, and an eighth at the BMW Championship.
  • The Canadian has emerged as one of the most dominant drivers of the golf ball on the planet. He’s gained over a stroke and a half off the tee in 12 straight measured starts, and over three strokes off the tee in three starts this fall swing, including +5.4 at the RSM Classic most recently.
  • The irons are a bit more volatile, but the upside is there. Pendrith has had four starts in the last year where he’s gained over four strokes on approach, including +6.1 at the Rocket Mortgage. He has a very similar profile to Keith Mitchell, but Pendrith is better iron player, and Mitchell is a better putter.
  • The Kent State alumni also ranks ninth in par three scoring average, fifth in par five scoring average, and 28th in birdies or better percentage. He’s a strong enough ball-striker to compete in major championships, and is also a must start at any of the Bent-grass birdie-fests.
• The Bad 
  • Pendrith’s irons are pretty average. While not a total liability, I would not call him a particularly strong wedge or long iron player either.
  • The putting does need to improve. Pendrith ranks 134th in strokes gained putting, 157th in putting inside 10 feet, 132nd in putting from 15 to 20 feet, and 124th in putting from 15 to 20 feet.
  • He’s a solid bunker player (32nd in sand save percentage), but the short game is just okay (107th in strokes gained around the green).

 

29. Maverick McNealy (OWGR: 61)

• L12 Months True SG: 33rd
• 2022 Money List Rank: 48th
• The Good 
  • Over the last 12 months, Maverick McNealy ranks 33rd in true strokes gained, mainly buoyed by the fact that he’s been a top-10 putter in the world over that same timespan. McNealy continues to trend positively as well. Over the past six months, he ranks 29th in true strokes gained, and third in true strokes gained putting.
  • The University of Stanford standout is coming off the best season of his career (+0.83 strokes gained), where he made 22 of 27 cuts, with 12 top-30 finishes, including a runner-up a the Fortinet, a seventh at the Genesis, an eighth at the John Deere, and a ninth at the Barracuda. McNealy is already off to an incredible start to this season, making five of six cuts, with five top-30 finishes, and two top-10s.
  • The 27-year-old is a really strong driver of the ball, and he’s got plenty of pop off the tee (45th in driving distance). Yet to elevate into a top-30 player off the tee, he needs to improve his accuracy (130th in driving accuracy).
  • McNealy does make a ton of birdies (13th in birdies or better percentage) and dominates on par fives (14th in par five scoring average).
  • The California native is a phenomenal putter, particularly on his beloved West Coast Poa, and he might even be improving in that category. In his last three measured starts, McNealy has gained 10.6, 6.2, and 3.3 strokes putting. He ranks 31st in one putt percentage, fifth in putting average, eighth in putting from greater than 25 feet, 41st in putting from inside 10 feet, and 30th in putting from four to eight feet. I am expecting some regression as it regards to the bombs he’s been making, but he’s still excellent inside 10 feet.
• The Bad 
  • McNealy needs to improve his iron play (122nd in strokes gained approach). He’s actually an above average long iron player (54th in proximity 200 yards plus), but he ranks outside of the top-150 in every proximity bucket from 125-150 yards, which is quite concerning given how important those shots are on a weekly basis.
  • The short game could definitely improve as well, as McNealy ranks 124th in strokes gained around the green, 115th in sand save percentage, and 124th in scrambling.
  • The elephant in the room remains whether or not he can get into the majors and provide any value in the bigger tournaments. McNealy has only played in five majors, making just one cut, a 75th at last year’s PGA Championship.

 

28. Cameron Davis (OWGR: 70)

• L12 Months True SG: 50th
• 2022 Money List Rank: 66th
• The Good 
  • In 25 starts last year, Cameron Davis made 18 cuts, with 10 top-30 finishes, including a 10th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, a third at the Heritage, a seventh at the Charles Schwab, an eighth at the John Deere, and a sixth at the Barracuda. He’s already off to a solid start this season as well, with five of six cuts made this fall swing, including a 13th at the CJ Cup.
  • Davis has plenty of distance off the tee (35th in driving distance), but his lack of accuracy (154th in driving accuracy) limits him from being a truly elite driver of the ball. In the last year, he’s only gained over three strokes off the tee twice.
  • The Australian is actually a better iron play than he is a driver of the ball, which I think many would be surprised to hear. Davis ranks ninth in par three scoring, 27th in birdies or better gained, and he is absolutely one of the most overall versatile iron players in the world as well, ranking 19th in proximity 50-125 yards, ninth in proximity 100-125 yards, 25th in proximity 125-150 yards, 40th in proximity 150-175 yards, 14th in proximity 175-200 yards, and 34th in proximity 200 yards plus. Davis is also eighth in going for the green percentage on par fives. The iron play continues to be an absolute weapon for him.
  • The former Rocket Mortgage Classic winner is a solid putter as well, particularly on Bent-grass. Overall, he’s not really elite, nor a liability, in any of the short game or putting metrics that I am looking at.
• The Bad 
  • Davis has the game to compete on any style of course: long, short, easy, hard. His game travels anywhere. The logical next step in his progression is to start showing out in bigger events and major championships. Davis should be in a decent position to qualify for the majors. The 27-year-old has played in only four of them, and never missed a cut, nor finished better than 39th either. Yet as of now, Davis still has some work to do to get into the majors, which we do have to knock him for given the fact that we are now at a point in the rankings where nearly all players surrounding him are in the majors/elevated events without stress,

 

27. Mito Pereira (OWGR: 45)

• L12 Months True SG: 30th
• 2022 Money List Rank: 46th
• The Good 
  • Over the last 12 months, Mito Pereira ranks 30th in true strokes gained, and he’s been a top-10 iron player in the world over that same time-span. Over the past three months, he’s been a top-20 player in the world and a top-five iron player as well.
  • Mito is coming off a season where he played 27 times, made 18 cuts, with 14 top-30 finishes, including a third at the Fortinet, a third at the PGA Championship, and a seventh at the Charles Schwab. He started off this season with a bang as well, finishing fourth at the Shriners and 18th at the CJ Cup.
  • Mito essentially burst onto the scene with some gaudy ball-striking numbers. He’s had 10 performances over the last year where he’s gained over six strokes ball-striking.
  • The Chilean is a great driver of the ball. He only possesses average distance (69th in driving distance), but he still ranks 32nd in strokes gained off the the tee because he keeps the ball in play. The irons remain his biggest asset, ranking ninth in strokes gained approach. He’s an above average short to middle iron player (32nd in proximity from 100-125 yards, 54th in proximity from 125-150 yards), and his long irons (45th in proximity 200 yards plus) are a relative strength as well.
  • Mito should be able to find himself in the majors this year, and although he’s only played in four of them (three missed cuts and a third at the PGA Championship), he does have the type of skill-set that should translate to major championship golf. His irons should be able to shine without having too much pressure on his putter.
• The Bad 
  • The putting has been Mito’s biggest struggle. He ranked 141st in three putt avoidance, 148th in one putt percentage, 103rd in putting inside 10 feet, 149th in putting greater than 25 feet, and 177th in putting from 15-20 feet. It’s an area of his game that he hasn’t quite figured out yet. Mito did gain +5.5 strokes putting at both the PGA Championship and RSM Classic, so it’s not as if he’s incapable, but he very rarely spikes.
  • Mito’s short game isn’t great either, as he ranks 136th in sand save percentage and 91st in strokes gained around the green. Certainly an area of his game where there is room for improvement.

 

26. Billy Horschel (OWGR: 18)

• L12 Months True SG: 19th
• 2022 Money List Rank: 18th
• The Good 
  • Over the last year, Billy Horschel has been a bonafide top-20 guy in the world, ranking 19th in true strokes gained over the last 12 months.
  • In 22 starts last year, Billy made 17 cuts, with 12 top-30 finishes, including a sixth at the Waste Management, a runner-up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a round of 16 appearance at the Match Play, a runner-up at the Zurich Classic, and a win at the Memorial.
  • At 36-years-old, Horschel is coming off the best season of his career (+1.13 strokes gained), the first time that he’s gained over a stroke per round since 2018.
  • Despite ranking 116th in driving distance, Horschel delivers off the tee because of his accuracy (31st in driving accuracy). He’s also got one of the best short games in the world, and the +0.3 strokes that he gained around the green per round was good for the best short game season of his entire career by a healthy margin. The University of Florida standout ranks eighth in around the green, 27th in sand save percentage, 32nd in scrambling, and 36th in scrambling from greater than 30 yards.
  • He remains one of the most reliable putters of the last decade, and Horschel has gained over a stroke per round every year since 2012. He’s 22nd in putting inside 10 feet, 27th in putting from 10 to 15 feet, and 23rd in putting from four to eight feet. He rates out quite well in all of the most sustainable putting metrics.
• The Bad 
  • I wish he played more than 22 times last year. Although Horschel is in incredible physical shape, he’s still on the wrong side of 30, and it’s more than likely that he starts trending towards a more conservative schedule.
  • Horschel always finds a way to overcome it, but he is simply not a great iron player. He’s lost strokes on approach each of the last three years. At least it’s getting better, as the seven-time PGA Tour winner lost 0.01 strokes on approach last year, and we’ve seen him spike more this season (+6.6 at the CJ Cup, +5 at the Memorial, +4,9 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, +5.8 at the Honda) than in year’s past. Horschel still ranks outside of the top-100 in every proximity bucket from 125 yards and up. He’s dangerous with a flip wedge in his hands (26th in proximity 50-125 yards), but he remains (and has been his entire career), a poor long iron player (149th in proximity 200 yards plus).
  • Once we get into the top-25 in these rankings, I need my players to not only to be qualified for the majors and elevated events, but be an actual threat in them. Are we there yet with Billy? Horschel has played in 36 majors in his career, made 24 cuts, with eight top-25s, and just one top-10, which came at the 2013 U.S. Open at Merion. He did make three of his four cuts at the majors last year, with a 21st at the Open Championship, good for his only top-25 at an Open across eight starts, and he has still yet to really figure out Augusta as well.

 

25. Tyrrell Hatton (OWGR: 26)

• L12 Months True SG: 20th
• 2022 Money List Rank: 43rd
• The Good 
  • Over the past year, Tyrrell Hatton has quietly remained a top-20 player in the world, although a lot of that had to do with the fact that he’s been a top-10 putter in the world.
  • Last year, Hatton played 19 times on the PGA Tour, with only 17 qualified starts for season long fantasy golf purposes. This must be viewed as a negative, as Hatton continues to do some of his best work overseas. From September on, Hatton finished eighth at the Italian Open, seventh at the Alfred Dunhill Links, and solo second at the DP World Tour Championship.
  • Of the 17 starts that mattered last year, Hatton made 15 cuts, with nine top-30 finishes, including a runner-up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a 13th at the PLAYERS, a 13th at the PGA Championship, an 11th at the Open Championship, and an eighth at Wyndham.
  • When Hatton is at his best, he’s a superb iron player, although 2022 was a down approach year for him. He gained over half a stroke on approach in 2019, 2020, and 2021, before regressing to just 0.2 strokes per round in 2022. The short to middle irons just haven’t been up to par, but he remains a solid long iron player (49th in proximity 200 yards plus).
  • This year has been far more about short game and putting than it has about ball-striking for the Englishman, which is unsustainable in nature. 2022 was the best putting season of his career by a healthy margin. He ranked third in total putting, fourth in strokes gained putting, 26th in three putt avoidance, 19th in one putt percentage, eighth in putting inside 10 feet, 12th in putting average, 12th in putting from greater than 25 feet, 15th in putting from four to eight feet, and he’s got an excellent short game too (17th in sand save percentage, 49th in strokes gained around the green).
  • The 31-year-old will be in all of the majors next year, but he’s been pretty hit or miss in these tournaments overall. He did make all four cuts last year, but for his career, he only has a 57% made cut percentage at the majors. The six-time European Tour winner does have five top-10s in 30 starts, and if you are drafting him, you are starting him at the majors. I do believe he has the skill-set to win a U.S. Open, Open Championship, or PGA Championship, but he will be the first to tell you that Augusta isn’t his bag.
• The Bad 
  • Hatton is not a very strong driver of the ball. He’s got above average distance (56th), but he struggles to keep the ball in play (170th in driving accuracy), which may very well end up hurting him (123rd in strokes gained off the tee). Maybe he’s turned a corner though. Hatton gained over 2.3 strokes off the tee in three straight starts this fall swing, including +5.2 at the Italian Open.

 

24. Tommy Fleetwood (OWGR: 23)

• L12 Months True SG: 28th
• 2022 Money List Rank: 42nd
• The Good 
  • Over the past year, Fleetwood has ranked 28th in true strokes gained, mainly buoyed by the fact that he’s got a top-10 short game in the world.
  • Fleetwood only had 15 qualified starts last year for season long fantasy golf purposes, so yes, he played some on the European Tour, but he also took some time off towards the end of the year. I would expect him to play close to 20 times on the PGA Tour next year, maybe more. It’s not Sahith level volume, but getting to 20 is more than serviceable.
  • The Englishman did play quite well last year. Nine of his 15 qualified starts were top-30 finishes, and last year was his best overall season since 2019, Highlights include a seventh at the Zozo, a 22nd at the PLAYERS, a 14th at the Masters, a 10th at the Heritage, a fifth at the PGA Championship, a fourth at the Scottish Open, and a fourth at the Open Championship. So for what it’s worth, Fleetwood finished top-25 at four of the five biggest tournaments of the year. He’s shown no signs of slowing down this fall swing either, with a fourth at the CJ Cup, where he gained strokes in all four major categories, and a win at the Nedbank Challenge on the Euro Tour, where he gained 7.6 strokes ball-striking. He actually won the tournament losing 0.5 strokes putting! Fleetwood followed it up with a fifth at the DP World Tour Championship where he gained 12.1 strokes ball-striking, good for the fourth best ball-striking performance of his entire career.
  • The six-time European Tour winner is a fine putter, ranking 26th in strokes gained putting last year, and he’s really good in the sustainability stats (20th in putting inside 10 feet, 24th in putting from four to eight feet).
  • Pound for pound, Fleetwood may have the best short game in the world. He ranks fifth in strokes gained around the green, ninth in sand save percentage, 13th in scrambling, and 38th in scrambling from greater than 30 yards. The 31-year-old has gained strokes around the green in 19 of his last 20 starts. Absolutely automatic.
  • Fleetwood is a plug and play at any major championship, with 20 of 29 cuts made, nine top-25s, five top-10s, five top-fives, and two runner-ups.
• The Bad 
  • The Southport native is nothing special off the tee. He’s not a liability, but it’s not a strength of his game either.
  • His proximity numbers aren’t great, but Fleetwood still just gained 5.3 strokes on approach at the NedBank Golf Challenge, and 10 strokes on approach at the DP World Tour Championship. He’s a great flip wedge player (26th in proximity 50-125 yards), hit or miss with the short to middle irons, but certainly a below average long iron player (151st in proximity 200 yards plus). Still, poor long iron play surprisingly hasn’t seemed to hurt him at major championships.

 

23. Sahith Theegala (OWGR: 44)

• L12 Months True SG: 58th
• 2022 Money List Rank: 34th
• The Good 
  • There’s a lot to like about Sahith Theegala, who ranks 59th in true strokes gained over the last year. That ranking shoots all the way up to 28th over the last six months, and he’s hung steady at 35th over the past three months as well.
  • Sahith is coming off a rookie season where he endeared many with multiple contending performances. He played 31 times last year, making 24 cuts, with 11 top-30 finishes, including an eighth at the Sanderson Farms Championship where he held the 54 hole lead, a third at the Waste Management where he went toe to toe with the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, and Brooks Koepka, ultimately coming up just short. He back-doored a seventh at the Valspar, a fifth at the Memorial, and then he stared down Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay at the Travelers, ultimately coming up just short. He’s already off to a hell of a start this fall swing, with a sixth at the Fortinet, a fifth at the Zozo, and a runner-up at the RSM Classic. The 25-year-old appears as motivated as ever,
• The Bad 
  • In terms of his statistical profile, Sahith is still extremely hit or miss off the tee. He does possess above average distance, but the weakest aspect of his game are his struggles with keeping the ball in play. Sahith ranks a putrid 173rd in driving accuracy.
  • The irons are a bit more consistent than his driver, but I would not call him a particularly elite short iron or long iron player. I’m not sure if he possesses elite, high end approach upside, as he’s never gained more than 5.9 strokes on approach in his career. Still, he has a ton of +2 to +4 weeks. Outside of the glaring black mark with his driving accuracy, Sahith is fairly well rounded across the board, and his short game and putting is already better than most rookies. I’m not sure if I see super-star level upside when it comes to ball-striking. His roadmap to success is far more of a balanced attack. I will be monitoring Sahith’s performance off the tee closely this year, as that is the one aspect of his game that is really holding him back from an even higher ranking than this.
  • With all of this being said, Sahith has been a buzzy name this off-season, and his ADP is still probably a bit too high for the player that he actually is. The former Haskins Award winner is not a first round draft pick, nor a second rounder for that matter, but I completely understand the upside and volume that fantasy players have become enamored with,

 

22. Corey Conners (OWGR: 33)

• L12 Months True SG: 27th
• 2022 Money List Rank: 24th
• The Good 
  • Over the last year, Conners ranks 27th in true strokes gained. He’s been a bonafide top-20 ball-striker, ranking 13th in true strokes gained off the tee, and 21st in true strokes gained approach over the last 12 months, although those numbers are trending slightly in the wrong direction if we shrink the sample size to the last six and three months.
  • Conners played 24 times last year, making 19 cuts, with 15 top-30 finishes, so essentially, he recorded a quality start 62.5% of the time. That’s a crazy high number. Highlights include a semi-finals appearance at the Match Play, a sixth at the Masters, a sixth at the Canadian Open, and a fifth at the BMW Championship. He’s had a ton more top-15 finishes, and he’s off to a decent start this season with back-to-back top-25s at the Zozo and CJ Cup. Overall, Conners gained over a stroke per round for the second straight year in a row, and for what it’s worth, he gained 0.03 strokes putting, good for his first positive putting season since 2014. 2022 was also the best off the tee season of his career, and he’s now gained over 0.6 strokes off the tee for three straight years.
  • Conners is one of the most accurate drivers of the ball on the PGA Tour, ranking 20th in driving accuracy percentage, and first in average distance from the edge of the fairway. Despite ranking a modest 78th in driving distance, Conners ranked fourth last year in total driving and fifth in strokes gained off the tee. The former Sanderson Farms Championship winner was so incredibly accurate that his driver became an absolute weapon despite barely cracking 300 yards off the box. Conners has lost strokes off the tee a grand total of two times in the last two years.
  • The irons are just as solid too. The 30-year-old ranks top-50 in nearly every single proximity bucket from 50 to over 200 yards. He’s just as solid of a flip wedge player as he is a long iron player. Conners is about as boring of a fairways and greens player as you are going to find, as he also ranks second in green regulation. He gained over three strokes on approach a whopping 11 times last year, and over four strokes ball-striking in 14 out of 24 starts last year.
• The Bad 
  • The short game and putting remains an issue. Conners ranks 132nd in three putt avoidance, 187th in one putt percentage, 100th in putting inside 10 feet, and 155th in putting average. The putting did improve last year, but he still has a long way to go. Conners does not need to be an elite putter to win tournaments. If he can gain three strokes putting, he will find himself in the mix nearly every week. The Kent State alumni only gained over three strokes putting four times last year. In those starts, he finished T28, T22, 6th, and 3rd.
  • The short game is a little bit worse. Oddly enough, his best short game performance of the season came at the Masters, probably the toughest around the green course on the PGA Tour. Conners gained 4.6 strokes around the green at the Masters, one of only two times where he gained over three strokes around the green last year. Ironically, his second best around the green performance came at Bay Hill, quite possibly the second hardest course on the PGA Tour around the green.
  • Once we get this high in the rankings, I want to feel really good about a players’ chances in the elevated events and major championships. I’m lukewarm on Conners’ chances at majors outside of the Masters, where he does have three top-10s in five appearances. Still, he’s never made a cut at a U.S. Open, and has only made two of four cuts at the PGA Championship. At least back-to-back top-30s at the Open Championship is encouraging.

 

21. Tom Kim (OWGR: 18)

• L12 Months True SG: 46th
• 2022 Money List Rank: 45th
• The Good 
  • Over the last 12 months, Tom Kim ranks 46th in true strokes gained, and he’s been a top-15 iron player in the world over that same timespan. Over the last six months, he shoots all the way up to 10th.
  • Kim burst onto the scene last year with a 17th at the Byron Nelson where he gained 5.7 strokes on approach in his sixth ever PGA Tour start. Following a missed cut at the PGA Championship, Kim was off and running, with a 23rd at the U.S. Open, a third at the Genesis Scottish Open, a 47th at the Open Championship, a 26th at the 3M Open, and a seventh at the Rocket Mortgage. This all lead into his breakout win at the Wyndham Championship, which earned him a spot in the FedEx Cup playoffs and a PGA Tour card for next season.
  • In his semi rookie season where he didn’t even have full membership, Kim made nine of ten cuts, with seven top-30 finishes, three top-10s, and a win. He’s off to a quality start this season as well, with a 25th at the Zozo, an 11th at the CJ Cup, and win number two at the Shriners. In 13 starts on the PGA Tour, Kim already has two wins.
  • While the sample size is extremely limited, the 20-year-old has already proven himself to be an elite ball-striker. Kim gained off the tee in nine of 12 measured starts, and he’s gained over three strokes on approach in nine of 12 events as well, including +6.3 at the Rocket Mortgage, and +5.8 at the Shriners. Kim is an incredibly accurate driver of the ball, ranking eighth in driving accuracy. He also ranks third in par three scoring, and sixth in strokes gained approach. Kim is staking his claim along with Collin Morikawa, Russell Henley, and Tom Hoge, as one of the best short to middle iron players in the world (fourth in proximity 125-150 yards, fifth in proximity 150-175 yards).
  • The short game has been a little more hit or miss, but he still gained 4.1 strokes around the green at the U.S. Open, 2.5 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and +2.4 at the CJ Cup. Kim ranks ninth scrambling, third in scrambling from greater than 30 yards, and 25th in strokes gained around the greens. The upside is certainly there.
  • As far as putting goes, Kim has shown the ability to get absolutely unconscious on the greens, as evidenced by the 12.6 (!!) strokes gained putting at the Wyndham Championship en route to victory. The two-time PGA Tour winner also gained 6.1 strokes putting at the Shriners, 4.4 at the U.S. Open, and 4.2 at the Genesis. Kim has done it on Bermuda-grass, Bent-grass, and fescue. He’s done it on slow greens and fast greens. The external simply doesn’t seem to matter. Kim can roll the rock.
  • Kim will be in all of the majors given his OWGR of 16 and now multiple wins last year. The fact that he already has a 23rd at the U.S. Open and a 47th at the PGA Championship is encouraging.
• The Bad 
  • The reason why I might be a touch lower on Tom Kim than consensus is the fact that I do not believe he has the game of a modern, prototypical star. Of the elite players, Kim is the shortest off the tee by a healthy margin, ranking a putrid 148th in driving distance. Collin Morikawa and Jordan Spieth are considered the shortest elite players, and both have 10 yards on Tom Kim. I have little doubt in my mind that he will have a long career with many PGA Tour wins in his future, but does he have the power to consistently compete at U.S. Opens and PGA Championships? It remains to be seen.