By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the betting preview every Tuesday with Rick. If you are more into written content, I post a detailed course breakdown on Mondays and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather 

Unfortunately due to the fact that this tournament is occurring outside of the mainland United States, windfinder.com does not provide a “Super Forecast,” so our understanding of the weather limited. Add in the fact that with only 39 players in the field, there is no real “wave” split to capitalize on. Players tee off successively from 9:30 AM to 12:45 PM on Thursday and Friday. If forced to provide an angle, I would favor those who tee off on the later side on Thursday and the earlier side on Friday, as Friday afternoon appears to have the strongest wind gusts. Still, I wouldn’t even go as far as to say it’s worth it to use that as a tie-breaker. There’s no need to over-analyze the weather this week and create something out of nothing.

Core 4: My four favorite plays that I will be most over-weight on relative to the field.

• Scottie Scheffler, $10,300 (Projected ownership: 21.8%): Have we already forgotten about Scottie Scheffler? Don’t get me wrong, I completely believe that the reigning Masters champion will regress from his historically great 2022. Still, the ownership difference between Scheffler and Rahm this week is irresponsible, and I say that as a massive fan of Rahm in this spot. Even before Scheffler’s breakout last year, he had already established himself as an elite ball-striker. While he has not won since Masters, the ball-striking has remained rock-solid. The only issue has been the flat-stick, as he has only gained strokes putting in two of his last ten starts. I have my concerns about rolling out the 26-year-old at a tournament where a hot flat-sick is a pre-requisite, but Scheffler putted well here last year, and I can’t get over the ownership break we are receiving when placed in context with Rahm, Cantlay, Xander, Finau, and Justin Thomas. If you view DraftKings the way that I do, Scheffler is in your pool. It’s a no brainer.

• Jordan Spieth, $8,200 (Projected ownership: 19.5%): I am certainly a Jordan Spieth fan, and I was honored to join the “Go Get That” podcast this week, where I spoke more extensively about Spieth, but he rarely finds himself in my core four. However, I find this to be an excellent spot for the three-time major winner. The price and ownership is certainly palatable, and I love the course fit. The Kapalua-Augusta correlation gets thrown around quite liberally at this point, but there’s truth to it. There is not a flat lie on the entire property of Kapalua, and the Coore/Crenshaw track requires a ton of creativity and shots that are hard to practice on the driving range. The three-time major winner absolutely thrives in these conditions, and he showed me enough with a 5-0 performance at the President’s Cup that his form is there,

• Brian Harman, $8,000 (Projected ownership: 16.4%): An argument can easily be made that Brian Harman is a tad over-priced compared to his peers in the $8K range, but that is also reflected in his more than palatable ownership. I have the 35-year-old coming in around 16%, and I actually wouldn’t be surprised if he finds himself lower than that by tee off. The former Georgia standout has proven time and again that he can comfortably hang with the big guys, and his runner-up finish at the 7,900 yard Erin Hills at the U.S. Open probably gets over-referenced at this point, but it’s true: some of Harman’s best work has come on longer and more difficult tracks. A third place finish already at Kapalua leaves little doubt in mind he can keep up on this big of a ball-park, and he is actually one of the biggest risers in terms of his long-term baseline on courses with slower greens, ranking fourth in this field in slow green putting. Never a flashy pick, but he remains a mainstay in this column for a reason.

• Scott Stallings, $6,600 (Projected ownership: 9.0%): I struggle to find reason why there is such a discernible ownership gap between Stallings and Hoge and Svensson, when Stallings has proven he actually presents the most upside of anyone in the $6K range. For a nine start stretch towards the end of last season, Stallings recorded a whopping six top-15 finishes, including nearly out-dueling Patrick Cantlay to win a FedEx Cup playoff event at the BMW Championship. While the 37-year-old has cooled considerably since his magical run late last summer, it’s not as if there has been some precipitous drop-off. Stallings has still made every cut this fall swing, including a 13th-place finish at the Sanderson Farms on Bermuda. Similar to Harman, Stallings is one of the biggest risers on slow greens, and he is one of the more trustable players on Tour in extremely easy scoring conditions. Stallings should take full advantage of Kapalua off the tee, and in terms of pure course fit, I would argue the three-time PGA Tour winner checks the most boxes out of any player in the $6K range.

Chalk Report

• $10K
  • With the withdrawal of Rory McIlroy, there’s only two players in the $10K range, Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler. Once again, DraftKings has fallen into the trap of extremely soft pricing. It’s mind boggling to me how in a 39 man-field, not one player is priced in the $11K range, but here we are. I currently have Jon Rahm as the highest owned player in the field at around 35%, and for good reason. I would argue that Rahm is significantly under-priced at this event, and he should at least be $1,000 more expensive. With that being said, the gap in ownership between Scheffler and Rahm is irresponsible. Compared to Rahm’s 35%, I have Scheffler coming in at 22%, and I would not be shocked if he clears 25%. For the record, I prefer Rahm to Scheffler, but for DraftKings purposes, Scheffler is the better play.

• $9K
  • The $9K range presents an interesting tier of all excellent players, and I would argue that many, if not all, are uinder-priced. Xander Schauffele appears to have emerged as the highest owned player in this range at around 29%, but barely by any margin. Patrick Cantlay is right behind him at 28%, and Tony Finau and Justin Thomas both should fall somewhere between 22 and 26%. I do not believe that there is a wide enough margin between Xander, Cantlay, Finau, and Thomas to make any decision based on ownership. Those four players are close enough in ownership that fantasy players can simply choose whomever they fancy the most. I believe all are excellent options, and I have a difficult time even claiming a favorite. Outside of the clear ownership break on Scheffler, Collin Morikawa and Matthew Fitzpatrick qualify as the only real “value pivots” above $9,000. I have Morikawa coming in at around 16%, and Fitzpatrick even lower at 11%. The only issue is that I really dislike Fitzpatrick’s course fit, and of the elite players, he rated out the worst for me by a healthy margin. With that being said, the reigning U.S. Open champion is a bonafide top-10 player in the world, and I would not fault anyone for taking a chance on talent overcoming course fit. Especially if you are huge on Rahm this week, Fitzpatrick as a second man in to Rahm immediately presents opportunities to get unique while still utilizing the highest owned player in the field. For my money, I far prefer Morikawa, who almost made my core plays. The course history is excellent, and his elite wedge and long iron play will certainly come in handy. Unfortunately, Morikawa will also need to pair his irons with a scorching hot putter, and I’m not sure I can envision him making enough putts to win a tournament at 35-under par. Still, I won’t put up any argument against one of the best iron players in the world at a palatable price and ownership.

• $8K
  •  The $8K range is loaded with awesome options, and ownership is all over the map. Sungjae Im appears to have emerged as the highest owned player in this range at around 27%. While I love Sungjae as much as the next guy, I find him to be a much better bet at 20/1 than I do as a DraftKings play. After Sungjae, Tom Kim, Viktor Hovland, and Jordan Spieth should all come in between 18 and 22%. I’m on the record about believing that Tom Kim is vastly overrated, and he will be over-owned all year, but I actually feel his price and ownership is more than fair in this spot. The next group of Will Zalatoris, Cameron Young, Sam Burns, Max Homa, Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, and Brian Harman all provide a relative ownership break. I would be surprised if any of that group of six comes in above 20%. There’s an outside chance that Burns catches some last minute steam, but 17ish% still feels like the right number on the 26-year-old. Zalatoris is the fascinating one to me. This might be the lowest ownership we receive on Zalatoris all year, and similar to Morikawa, the lack of interest appears to be putting related. Despite the fact that Zalatoris routinely shot under 20-under par on the Korn Ferry Tour, it’s undeniable that his best work has been on tougher, major style set-ups. I’d suggest that Zalatoris presents even more risk than Fitzpatrick and Morikawa because of his recent injury, and it’s hard to envision him winning a tournament at 35-under par,

• $7K
  • I always worry about disgusting $7K chalk in such a small field, but no one in this range is standing out to me as a clear stay-away. Aaron Wise and Seamus Power will be the highest owned players in this range, and while I will be avoiding both, I don’t believe either are unplayable. I have Wise coming in at 22% and Power coming in at 20%. Don’t get me wrong, that’s high. Still, if you fancy Wise and Power, don’t forget that you can leave money on the table! Most DraftKings players are inherently afraid to leave money on the table, which I would push back on. It’s hard enough to acquire leverage in a tournament with 39 players, so don’t be afraid to leave money on the table here!! Once we get past Wise and Power, Sahith Theegala, Russell Henley, and Keegan Bradley will still garner ownership and find themselves in the ballpark of 15%. I have Billy Horschel, Corey Conners, Adam Scott, and K.H. Lee all coming in the low double digits, and all are very viable options. Sepp Straka is the only player I feel comfortable suggesting will be in the single digits.

• $6K
  • I spoke last season about how I was proud of the industry for veering away from disgusting chalk. We just don’t see it these days as much as we used to. With that being said, the Tom Hoge thing this week is a bit irresponsible. I have Hoge coming in at a robust 19.8%, which is irresponsible, to say that least. Don’t get me wrong, I certainly understand it. The former AT & T National Pebble Beach winner rates out the best statistically out of anyone in this range for me as well, but still, do we really believe that he is double as likely to outperform Scott Stallings this week? Triple as likely to outperform Chez Reavie? Once we get past Hoge, Adam Svensson and Trey Mullinax will also garner their fare share of ownership. I have both hovering around 13-16%, which is simply par for the course in a field of 39 players. Even in such a small field, I don’t see a massive reason to play any $6K player in the double digits. Mackenzie Hughes, J.T. Poston, Scott Stallings, Chez Reavie, and J.J. Spaun should all be in the high single digits, and I do not see too much of a discernible difference between them and Hoge, let alone Mullinax and Svensson. That is not to say that Hoge, Mullinax, and Svensson are unplayable, I would just echo again that one should never be afraid to leave money on the table in these events.

Best of luck this week – AL