By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the betting preview every Tuesday with Rick. If you are more into written content, I post a detailed course breakdown on Mondays and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather 

Folks, we’ve got a developing situation on our hands this week in Honalulu! For the second week in a row, Hawaii does not provide us with a super forecast, which does make me feel somewhat less comfortable about the aggressive stance I am taking. Yet still, I do not see how one could view this weather report and not spot an inherent advantage for the PM/AM players. Thursday morning looks to be the worst of it, as the pocket of 8:00 – 11:00 AM when all morning players are in the meat and potatoes of their round, features consistent wind speeds of 14 mph and above, with guests between 15 and 18 mph. Friday afternoon calms down significantly, and during that stretch of 2:00 to 5:00 PM (again, the meat and potatoes of the afternoon round), wind speeds are between 8 and 10 mph, with gusts only up to 10 mph! On Thursday alone, afternoon players should feature a fairly healthy advantage. Friday crystallizes the situation. The morning is an absolute walk in the park, featuring perfect weather conditions, with not a breathe of wind in the area. The wind does kick up a touch on Friday afternoon, with wind speeds between 7 and 10 mph, and gusts up to 10 mph. Not a massive difference, but when you add together the fact that one of the waves receives objectively better weather on both Thursday and Friday, that’s enough for me to stake a stand. I’m going pretty aggressively with my wave stacking, and I believe that 17 out of the 20 players in my pool fall into the PM/AM draw. I would not necessarily recommend playing so aggressively, or completely dismissing good plays that have the “wrong” side of the draw. Let’s remember that it’s Hawaii after-all, and we don’t even have the benefit of a super forecast! With that being said, I’m comfortable taking my chances and striking out if I’m wrong.

Core 4: My four favorite players that I will be most over-weight on relative to the field.

• Corey Conners, $9,600 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 19.8%): Would I love for his ownership to be a touch lower? Sure, but I feel pretty comfortable rolling out a Sungjae-Conners start given how weird I get at the bottom. I’ve discussed in full in the Monday course preview article about how Waialae features the second most predictive course history on the PGA Tour to only Augusta, and Conners has been nothing short of spectacular at the Raynor track, averaging +1.8 strokes gained per round, second only to Matt Kuchar. The Canadian has finished third, 12th, and 11th in his last three appearances here, and he’s coming off a a fairly quiet 18th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions where he gained strokes in both ball-striking categories. Conners remains definitively one of the best iron players (fourth overall in strokes gained approach) in the world, and he’s second in this field in strokes gained off the tee on shorter courses. The 31-year-old is one of the most accurate drivers of the ball in this field, and he gained strokes off the tee in every single start last year except one, despite featuring average at best distance. With longer rough and an increased emphasis on driving accuracy this year, I expect Conners to find himself firmly in the mix come Sunday afternoon in Honalulu.

• Adam Scott, $8,600 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 7.1%): I refuse to believe that Adam Scott is done competing at the highest level, and if he wanted to cash in all his chips at 42-years-old, he’d already have made the jump to LIV. At this point, I do not foresee that happening, and I do expect Scott to be a threat this year on the PGA Tour and in majors. While he does not play this event year, he does boast a runner-up finish here in 2009, and an eighth-place finish in 2014. I know he gets the rep of as a player who does his best work on driver heavy, longer courses such as Riviera, Firestone, and Augusta National, but I actually love the way his game fits at these shorter, positional courses, and let’s not dismiss his resounding success at places such as Colonial and TPC Sawgrass. The Australian remains one of the strongest mid to short iron players in the world, has experienced loads of success on Bermuda-grass, still makes birdies at an extremely high rate, and has won 11 different tournaments at 17-under or lower. He’s undervalued coming off a 29th at the Sentry TOC where he gained 2.9 strokes ball-striking but lost 5.7 strokes putting, has extremely low ownership, and is on the right side of the draw. Sign me up.

• Hayden Buckley, $7,600 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 9.9%): Once we start getting into the mid $7K range, I am always looking to find players with at least one specific elite skill-set, and Hayden Buckley has already identified himself as an excellent driver of the ball. Dubbed my many as a popular breakout candidate this season, I expect the 26-year-old to kick off his season with an extremely strong performance in Honalulu. Albeit a limited sample size, he checks the course history box with a 12th-place finish here last year where he gained strokes in all four major categories, including +4.9 ball-striking. While off the tee is his bread and butter, he’s shown flashes of elite upside with his irons as well, gaining over four strokes on approach in back to back starts last year in the late summer. Coming off an extremely respectable fall-swing where he failed to miss a cut, including a 19th at the Sanderson Farms, a 20th at the Shriners, and a 5th at the Zozo, I believe that Buckley is an absolute steal at this price and ownership.

• Nick Hardy, $7,500 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 5.3%): An injury plagued 2022 still leaves us with tremendous value on Nick Hardy, who I have big hopes for this season. He’s already finished 14th at Waialae in 2021 where he gained strokes in all four major categories, including 5.5 ball-striking, and I was highly encouraged by what I saw out of him this fall swing. The 26-year-old gained strokes on approach in every measured start during the swing season, including a robust 7.4 at the Sanderson Farms Championship, where he went on to finish in fourth-place. The list of sub-five percent players on the right side of the draw and with this ball-striking upside is short. Considering price, ownership, and course fit, Hardy is my strongest play on the entire board.

Chalk Report: Ownership Report for every range

• $10K: There are four players priced above $10K this week, and as expected, Tom Kim leads the pack in both pricing and ownership. Again, I’m always far cooler on Kim than market, but I can’t argue whatsoever with the course fit. I have the young Korean superstar coming in at a robust 31.5%, making him the highest owned player on the slate. I actually think that value is on the other young Korean superstar, Sungjae Im, who was almost featured in my core four. I will be pretty heavy on Im, and I have zero exposure to Kim. I simply believe that the discrepancy is simply too large. Sungjae was an extremely popular outright and DraftKings pick last week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, and I guess that he let people down with a 13th-place finish where he gained nearly 5 strokes ball-striking. I have Sungjae coming in at 24%, which is far less than it sounds given the fact that he is the second highest priced player on the slate. This is a really fun DraftKings week, as there is even more value on Hideki Matsuyama and Jordan Spieth, who I both have coming in between 14 and 18%, with Spieth on the higher end and Hideki on the lower end. Would I be shocked if the Tom Kim mania hits a fever a pitch, dropping Hideki and Spieth even closer to 11 or 12%? Absolutely not.

• $9K: The $9K range is another fun one with some enticing leverage opportunities. I have the top three players in pricing (Tom Hoge, Russell Henley, and Brian Harman) coming in as the highest owned options in this range. Tom Kim is cheap enough for all three of these players to work as either a second or first man in. I have Corey Conners coming in as the highest owned of the bunch at around 20%, and I’ve already discussed my feelings on him in the core four section. Harman and Henley won’t be far behind, as I have both in the 16 to 20% range. The leverage opportunities really begin when we start looking at the bottom of this range. Billy Horschel, Keegan Bradley, Maverick McNealy, and Taylor Montgomery should all come in between 8 and 13%. The issue is that I’m unfortunately not a huge fan of any of these players, and I actually do understand based on how ownership is shaking out at the top, why this is a bit of a dead zone. I’m staying as far away from Billy Horschel as possible given his comments in Sports Illustrated that his swing is in a bad place, and he nearly considered withdrawing to get back home so he could work with his coach. I do not believe in Montgomery’s or McNealy’s wedge play enough right now to roll them out, but I would contend that an 11.5% Keegan Bradley is a fairly solid play, especially considering that he tees off in the afternoon as well.

• $8K: I’m fairly impressed with the lack of groupthink this week, as I’m not sure that I see a player under $9K crossing the 20% ownership threshold. Cameron Davis, who I absolutely love and was my first bet of the week, probably stands the closest chance, and I have him coming in at around 18.9%. I believe that Davis is a far better outright or top-20 bet than he is a DraftKings play at that price and ownership, and I feel okay leaving him out of the player pool. Once we get past Davis, Keith Mitchell will receive his fare share of love as well, and I have him coming in at around 15%. He’s definitely not unplayable, but if you are already riding with Tom Kim and one of the high $9K players, I would certainly be weary of Mitchell as a third man in. For what it’s worth, he does catch the right side of the draw however. K.H. Lee, J.J. Spaun, and Emiliano Grillo will all be in the low double digits, with Lee on the higher end at 13.5%, and Spaun and Grillo coming in around 11%. Adam Scott, Si Woo Kim, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Andrew Putnam all have the potential to catch a touch of late steam and clear double digits, but all four should fall in that 7 to 12% range.

• $7K: Now that we are back to a 144 player field, the $7K range is absolutely massive, so let’s start talking about the players with double digits ownership. Again, I’m impressed with the lack of groupthink this week, and there is not a player in this range that will near 20%. Still, here are the players that will almost certainly be in the double digits: Alex Smalley (13.8%), Mackenzie Hughes (12.8%), Adam Svensson (10.9%), Ben Griffin (10.3%), and Harris English (10.1%). This next range of players aren’t sneaking up on anyone, but still possess palatable ownership: Hayden Buckley (9.9%), Russell Knox (9.7%), Robby Shelton (9.6%), Will Gordon (9.3%), Kurt Kitayama (9.0%), Brendan Steele (8.9%), and Matt Kuchar (8.8%). I would not be overly concerned with any other player in this range from an ownership standpoint. It’s actually way more spread out in this range than I would have expected.

• $6K: There will not be a single player in this range that nears double digits, but here are the names that will get more ownership than their peers: Ryan Armour, Ben Taylor, Sam Ryder, David Lingmerth, Chesson Hadley, and Taiga Semikawa. As always, choose your own adventure down here.