By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the Scramble live every Tuesdays and Fridays at 12:00 PM ET with Rick. If you are more into written content, I posted a detailed course breakdown of Innisbrook on Monday, and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop. The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week (or after the tournament starts, in the case of Friday’s Scramble) is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather. With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In three recent tournaments, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and of course, the PLAYERS Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player. Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 12-20 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 16-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to Single Entry and 3-Max. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends. I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in. Weather:  As one can see, I do not believe that one draw possesses a distinct advantage over the other. Yes, the players that go out super early on Thursday morning will have absolutely pristine conditions, but they will also get the worst of the conditions with 20 mph guests late on Friday afternoon. Play who you want to play this week. I’m not seeing any edge with the weather.   Core 4: My four strongest plays of the week that I will be the most overweight on relative to the field.

• Kevin Streelman, $8,700 (Projected ownership: 12.5%)
  • If I was asked to select one player to win this golf tournament, I would pick Kevin Streelman. That’s how confident I am in his chances this week, and I promise, it has nothing to do with our shared alma-mater. The former Duke University standout has made every cut at this tournament, with five top-20 finishes, including an eighth and sixth in his last two appearances. The two-time winner is coming off a seventh at the Valspar where he gained over seven strokes from tee-to-green, and 12.5% projected ownership is extremely manageable. Streelman is the second or third man in for me in the majority of my lineups.

• Mito Pereira, $8,100 (Projected ownership: 11.5%)
  • Mito will be prominently featured here once again, as my numbers continue to show value. I had the young Chilean as the fifth overall golfer for me this week, and I was prepared to play him at 15%+. He is by no means flying under the radar, but the fact that he is right next to Kizzire should keep him somewhere between 10 and 13%. I probably prefer Kizzire to win, but Mito is an objectively better play when factoring in the potential 8% ownership break. I don’t see a massive difference between the two.

• Sahith Theegala, $7,800 (Projected ownership: 8%)
  • Sahith Theegala at sub 10% is an absolute steal, and I was very surprised to see him this low. Again, I think most folks are either going to pay 200$ more for Kizzire, or take the 200$ savings with Brendan Steele and Doug Ghim. This is going to leave Sahith, Rickie Fowler, Ian Poulter, and Matt Kuchar in a dead-zone. None of them will crack 10%, and I will be playing all of them. Of that group, Theegala presents the most upside. I spoke in the Monday article about the correlation I had found between TPC San Antonio and TPC Scottsdale, and Theegala nearly won in Phoenix earlier this year in a much better field. On talent alone, he is a must play.

• Martin Laird, $7,500 (Projected ownership: 8%)
  • Old reliable! Yes, I play Martin Laird every week, and yes, after a fantastic start to the year, he has let me down with missed cuts in his last two starts. I am not deterred. The four-time PGA Tour winner is one of the most accurate drivers in this field, one of the best middle iron players in this field, and he has won both at this course, TPC Summerlin, and also boasts a fifth, a seventh, a ninth, and a 14th at TPC Scottsdale. Laird is a perfect fit for this down the middle style of golf (keep the ball in play off the tee, pound greens in regulation), and I like the discount we are getting coming off back-to-back missed cuts.

Chalk Report

• 10K
  • To be honest, I was a little surprised to see Rory McIlroy hovering around 25% given his price and questionable motivation, but I imagine the safety that he brings to table is what is drawing people in. I also believe Rory that is incredibly safe this week, and probably stands the highest chance of any other player in the field to make the cut. However, at $11.2K and 25% ownership, you’re going to need a lot more than that. If Rory is out of contention, I’m not sure I see him grinding to finish top-five here. He’s playing this week for the sole reason of switching up his pre-Masters routine. Rory has gotten off to uncharacteristically poor starts of late at Augusta, so I completely understand the logic. Still, I ultimately see him finishing somewhere between 10th and 30th, which isn’t going to justify his price. Asides from Rory, everyone else in this range is manageable. Injury concerns with Hideki and Bryson are going to keep both of those players sub 15%, and I don’t really see Spieth or Ancer cracking 20% either. I don’t believe you are really gaining much “leverage” by playing Bryson or Hideki instead of Spieth or Ancer, so I am just going to pick the player who I believe has the best chance to contend this week, which is actually Ancer. Spieth and Bryson just didn’t pass the eye test for me last week, and their ownership isn’t low enough for me to take a chance. A 14% Ancer will lead a great deal of my lineups this week.

• 9K
  • There is some pretty gross stuff in this range, with Conners, Woodland, and Kirk all expected to clear 20% easily. I imagine Rory-Conners, Rory-Woodland, Rory-Kirk, and Conners-Woodland-Kirk builds will be extremely popular. Conners’ price is fair, one could certainly make an argument he should be more expensive than Ancer, but playing a 25% Conners the week before the Masters just isn’t in my DNA. Same thing with Kirk and Woodland. I like both of those players from handicapping standpoint. They both check a lot of boxes, but are Kirk and Woodland double more likely to outperform Si Woo Kim and Tony Finau? That’s where I have to draw the line. I’m playing both Si Woo and Finau in this range, and I expect both to stay below 15%. I do imagine that some folks will come to their senses and hop off a 25% Kirk and Woodland at the 11th hour, but not to point where ownership will be completely leveled. I do not have the cahones for this one, but Jason Day could be sub-five percent.

• 8K
  • I absolutely love this range, and as you can probably tell by my core four, I have a lot of extremely balanced lineups this week. My only issue with this range is the ownership. The first thing I did when I woke up Monday morning was bet Patton Kizzire to win this tournament, thinking I was sneaky. Boy, was I wrong. I do not know how this happened to poor Patton, but whoever was touting him so hard this week deserves a medal. I do believe that once people start talking about Patton Kizzire chalk, the ownership will quell some what. I do not believe he will be 18% like some projection sites. 15% might be wishful thinking, but I’m eating it regardless. I firmly believe he is going to contend to this week. Plus, I’m steering clear of all the Rory, Conners, Woodland, and Kirk nonsense, so I do have the ability to play who I want down here. Adam Hadwin was the number one player in my model this week. I don’t love the ownership, but again, he’ll be in lineups with a 0.5% Luke Donald and 2% Danny Lee. Similar story with Jhonattan Vegas, who I also bet to win. I rarely fall this in love with a range, but I knew at the beginning of the week that I really wanted to target strong tee to green players in good form who weren’t already qualified for the Masters. Hadwin, Vegas, and Kizzire fit the bill, so I’m playing all of them. The real nuts this week is Streelman and Mito however, who I already discussed in my core four. I’ll have Hadwin, Vegas, and Kizzire spread out, with Streelman and Mito featured more prominently. I don’t even think you will be getting much leverage by playing Hoffman, Knox, or Palmer. They are already all around 10%, and I could see that creeping up if people freak about some of the 15% plus guys I have already mentioned. I’m sticking with my guns here, especially because I know my roster construction will be different.

• 7K
  • This is a hard range to project. I actually expect ownership to really spread out here. The only players I have above 10% are Brendan Steele, Doug Ghim, and Matthew NeSmith. NeSmith is underpriced, so I understand the love there, and I’m a huge fan of Steele and Ghim this week. Ultimately, there’s nothing really to worry about here. Is a 13% Matthew NeSmith the best idea if you are plugging him in next to Rory, Kirk, Woodland, Kizzire, or Hadwin? Probably not, but there are truly a ton of appealing plays here. Outside of Ghim and Steele, I’m rocking with an 8% Rickie Fowler, an 8% Matt Kuchar, and a 4% Ian Poulter. All three of these players are used to playing the big one next week, but are not currently qualified. I expect to see their best effort. An 8% Sahith and an 8% Martin Laird are core plays for me, and a 1% Alex Smalley is a crime against humanity.

• 6K
  • As is often the case with this range, you are pretty much free to play whoever your heart desires. Many casual players refuse to acknowledge that this range even exists, and to them I would say, “live a little!” The names I’ve heard the most down here are Austin Smotherman, J.J. Spaun, and Paul Barjon. I would still be shocked if any of them cracked 5 or 6%. I have a concerning amount of confidence in Spaun and Danny Lee this week. I may be getting a little greedy with Luke Donald. I got T16 out of a 1% 6.4K Donald at the Valspar, and I should probably just thank him and run in the other direction. I can’t help myself, I’m a sucker for good iron stats. If you are looking for more salary savers, Aaron Rai and Brendon Todd are both playable options that just missed my pool.

Final Player Pool (Ranked by Price): 

1. Abraham Ancer, $10,300 (14%)
2. Si Woo Kim, $9,600 (11%)
3. Tony Finau, $9,100 (14%)
4. Adam Hadwin, $8,900 (17%)
5. Kevin Streelman, $8,700 (12.5%)
6. Jhonattan Vegas, $8,600 (15.5%)
7. Mito Pereira, $8,100 (11.5%)
8. Patton Kizzire, $8,000 (16.5%)
9. Sahith Theegala, $7,800 (8%)
10. Matt Kuchar, $7,800 (8%)
11. Rickie Fowler, $7,700 (8%)
12. Ian Poulter, $7,700 (4%)
13. Brendan Steele, $7,600 (11.5%)
14. Doug Ghim, $7,600 (11.5%)
15. Martin Laird, $7,500 (8%)
16. Lucas Glover, $7,400 (9%)
17. Alex Smalley, $7,100 (1%)
18. Danny Lee, $6,800 (2%)
19. J.J. Spaun, $6,700 (4.5%)
20. Luke Donald, $6,500 (0.5%)