The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.
With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.
Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.
I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.
Weather
The weather has been a giant point of discourse this week, essentially since Monday morning. I don’t believe that I will be breaking any news by suggesting that players who tee off late on Thursday and early on Friday should experience an edge, due to the absolutely gnarly conditions that players will be faced with on Friday afternoon. The majority of my lineups will certainly be a PM/AM stack, although I will certainly have a few balanced lineups as well as a few lineups that completely go in the opposite direction and stack AM/PM players, just in case. We’ve been wrong countless times in Florida. The Players Championship last year comes to mind, and I would strongly advise against putting all of your eggs in the same basket this week, There is no denying that Friday afternoon appears to be a bloodbath, and all four players in my core four that I will be most heavily exposed to are in the PM/AM wave, but I would still recommend against just a few lineups that favor the AM/PM players, or are at least more balanced, just in case.
Core 4: The four players that I will be most over-weight on relative to the field in DraftKings
- Xander Schauffele, $9,200 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 16.1%): Despite Xander being my favorite golfer in the world, he has not been a name that is frequently featured in this article, as I often believe him to be over-owned and over-valued most weeks. At $9,200 and 16% ownership, I actually believe that Xander is one of the biggest steals on the board this week. You can pretty much pair him with anyone. He can be a second man in after Rory, Rahm, or Scheffler, or he could be the first man in in an extremely balanced lineup as well. The one concern I have with Xander is that outside of a rogue runner-up finish at the Players Championship, he generally creates his schedule in efforts to avoid as much Bermuda/Florida golf as possible. Him being bad on Bermuda, is a complete and total myth. The seven-time PGA Tour winner has been absolutely elite at East Lake, and even boasts a high end finish at TPC Southwind, both courses that are Bermuda from head to toe. Ultimately, the iron play is simply too strong for me to ignore, as he is coming off a 33rd at the Genesis where he gained six strokes on approach, and he’s now gained over 5.8 strokes ball-striking in three straight starts. I would not be the least bit surprised if he stood victorious on Sunday evening at Bay Hill.
- Hideki Matsuyama, $8,200 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 10.3%): I understand the injury concern with Hideki Matsuyama, but how many times have we been here before with this player? Just like George Kittle, there’s always going to be an injury tag surrounding Hideki, and since I’m a little more chalky this week in the $7K range, I am absolutely willing to roll the dice on a player whose ownership that I believe will crater as the day goes on. At the end of the day, Matsuyama remains (in my eyes), a bonafide top-20 player in the world, who simply isn’t getting treated like one right now. I love pouncing on players who missed the cut last week despite gaining strokes in both ball-striking categories, which is exactly what Hideki did last week at Riviera. Now he returns to a golf course where he has never missed a cut, with four top-30 finishes, including a sixth-place finish in 2018, in eight appearances at the iconic Dick Wilson venue. Hideki has gained strokes off the tee in seven of eight appearances at this event, gained strokes on approach in seven of eight appearances this year, and concurrently, gained strokes ball-striking in seven of eight appearances here. This course completely fits his eye from a tee to green, and the former Masters winner has actually gained strokes putting on Bermuda-grass that last four times that he has been on this surface. I expect him to be firmly in the mix come Sunday afternoon in Orlando.
- Rickie Fowler, $7,700 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 11.8%): While I wish the ownership was a touch lower, I actually believe that Fowler is pretty aggressively under-priced in this field. In my opinion, he’s done more than enough to warrant a price tag in the low $8K range, as the two-time Florida winner has now gained over four strokes on approach in four straight starts. He’s had some nice off the tee performances of late as well, and he’s gained over four strokes putting in two of his last three starts. After a fall swing in which he finished sixth and runner-up, the 34-year-old has now put together three top-20 finishes in a row, in some of the strongest fields in golf. Fowler now returns to a course where he has made 10 cuts in 11 appearances. At this price tag, another top-20 is more than enough to get the job done for us here.
- Gary Woodland, $7,400 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 11.8%): It’s certainly hard to ignore what Gary Woodland was able to accomplish last week at the Genesis Invitational, gaining 2.8 strokes off the tee and 9.7 strokes on approach, good for his best ball-striking performance since the 2019 PGA Championship. Now Woodland returns to a golf course where he has recorded four top-30 finishes in seven appearances, including a fifth last year where he possessed a legitimate chance to win late on Sunday until he left one in the bunker. Over 30% of approach shots at Bay Hill come from over 200 yards, and over a two year sample size, the 38-year-old remains the number long iron player in this entire field. Again, I wish the ownership was a touch lower, but I do believe that my building strategy this week is unique enough for me to jam him in stress-free.
Chalk Report: DraftKings Ownership Projections for every range
- $10K: There are only three players in the $10K range this week, Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, and Rory McIlroy. Despite Rory playing objectively worse than Rahm and Scheffler over the last two weeks, all of the ownership appears to be conglomerating around Rory, who I have coming in at a cool 27%, the highest owned player on the entire board. After that, I have Jon Rahm coming in at an extremely palatable 20.9%, and Scottie Scheffler not far behind at between 19% and 20.5%. I was surprised to see such a gap between Rory, Rahm, and Scheffler, but course history speaks, and with Rory being a full $900 dollars cheaper than Rahm, I certainly understand it, For what it’s worth, Scheffler is a full $600 dollars cheaper than Rahm, and coming in at 20.1%, as well. Rory and Rahm both get the “better” side of the draw, so I would not be surprised to see Rahm’s number continue to rise by Sunday evening. Ultimately, Rory will be the highest owned player on the slate at 27%, and Rahm and Scheffler, both comfortably higher priced than Rory, will both come in between 19 and 21%.
- $9K: The $9K range presents some interesting opportunities, but let’s start with the chalk. I have Will Zalatoris coming in at the highest owned player in this range at 20.2%. After Zalatoris, every single other player in this range should come in between 10 and 17%, and I will run through every single one of them briefly from top to bottom in terms of pricing: Max Homa (17.1%), Justin Thomas (10.9%), Collin Morikawa (16.5%), Tony Finau (12.9%), Xander Schauffele (15.1%), Patrick Cantlay (12.5%), and Viktor Hovland (13.1%). Every single one of these players possess win equity, and outside of Zalatoris, none of them are unplayable based on their number. I would essentially end up rolling with the player that you trust the most. For me, it’s Xander, Morikawa , and Hovland, but if you can nail one or two of these seven players, you will be sitting pretty. The only building strategy that I would advise against is a Rory McIlroy – Will Zalatoris start, but there is enough win equity in this range, but I would not even be opposed to fading the entire $10K range entirely, and starting off your lineups with two to three players in this range.
- $8K: Surprisingly, the highest owned player in this range is Tyrrell Hatton, who I have coming in at around 18%. Once we get past Hatton, there is a large group of players that fall in between 10% and 15%. Let’s start from high to low: Sungjae Im (14.3%), Matt Fitzpatrick (11.5%), Cameron Young (12.6%), Jason Day (14.8%), Hideki Matsuyama (10.3%), Sam Burns (10.3%), and Keith Mitchell (14.5%). Once again, one of these six players will be in the mix to win on Sunday in Orlando. My favorites of the bunch are Cameron Young and Hiedki Matsuyama, for what it’s worth. While we are on the subject, I know I already touched on this in the core four segment, but I expect Hideki to close in single digits by day’s end. There’s simply too much fear surrounding a player with injury concerns right now for that not to be reflected in the ownership. By Wednesday evening, I expect Hideki to join the group of the true leverage plays in the $8K range this week: Jordan Spieth (8.5%) and Tom Kim (9.6%).
- $7K: There’s a ton to love in this range, and this group features the largest number of players that I legitimately believe have a chance to win the tournament in recent memory. Let’s start with the highest owned players that may be worth avoiding if you are already getting pretty chalky at the top: Rickie Fowler (11.8%), Chris Kirk (11.0%), Keegan Bradley (13.8%), Tommy Fleetwood (12.6%), and Gary Woodland (11.8%). In a surprising turn, I actually have two of those players featured in my core four. I do not believe that any of these players are coming in at unplayable numbers, and when you are specifically looking for players to catch a specific tee time, sometimes you have to sacrifice some ownership. I will still be monitoring both Fleetwood and Woodland as the day goes on, and if I notice either creeping closer to 15%, I might end up pivoting. Yet as we stand here now, those four players are the only ones I feel comfortable suggesting will be in the single digits. There are a few players such as Shane Lowry and Corey Conners that might creep closer to double digits by day’s end, but that would surprise me,
- $6K: As always, choose your own adventure down here. There certainly are a few players this week that I do expect to cross the five percent threshold, namely Taylor Pendrith and Ben Griffin. I have Pendrith coming in at 6.4%, and Ben Griffin coming in at 7.6%. These are certainly high numbers for the players that they are priced around, but not too concerning to the fact where I advise against utilizing them entirely unless the rest of your roster is completely filled with chalk. After Pendrith and Griffin, the other players that should garner some more attention than their peers, but will unlikely cross five percent are Eric Cole, Joel Dahmen, Joseph Bramlett, Alex Smalley, Davis Riley, and Ben Taylor. There are actually a couple good steals down there, as I feel pretty strongly about Smalley and Riley as both usable options.
Best of luck this week – AL
