By Andy Lack

The 2023 AT & T Byron Nelson Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

We are back in Texas this week, which always means that wind is going to be part of the equation and that there is an argument for stacking in either direction. It’s been a couple weeks since I’ve seen the potential for this much of a draw bias, but I’m not sure how one can look at this wind and not give an advantage to the AM/PM side. While it will not be for their entire round, the players that get out early on Thursday morning will certainly experience the least amount of wind. Strong gusts and more heavier breezes do not really get going until around noon on Thursday, and then for the entire afternoon, players will be tasked with consistent wind speeds between 14 and 17 mph, and gusts from 20 to 23 mph. Once again on Friday, the AM/PM side of the draw should experience an advantage. Interestingly enough, the strongest wind gusts on day two will come in the morning between 8:00 and 11:00 AM. In the afternoon, while the wind stays steady, the gusts calm down to between 15 and 17 mph. All in all, the same side of the draw should experience less wind both on Thursday and Friday, so I am playing a fairly aggressive approach with upwards of 70% of my players in the AM/PM side of the draw. That is not to say that we should eliminate PM/AM players from our pool, as one of them even made my core four. Still, I actually believe that stacking is incredibly sensible this week. I would even make a few PM/AM lineups just in case things flip. It is Texas after all.

Core Four

• Tyrrell Hatton, $10,100 (Projected ownership: 25.7%) (AM/PM): I’ve already written and spoken about how I believe that Tyrrell Hatton actually presents value in the betting market given his talent and upside in context with the current field. I would actually make a similar argument that he should be higher priced and higher owned than he is in DraftKings as well. Of course he has gotten some of Spieth’s ownership, but truly not as much as I would have expected, and the $1800 discount that you are getting with him from Scottie Scheffler is the equivalent of the price difference between Hatton and Aaron Wise. The fiery Englishman has been doing absolutely everything that you want to see out of a player prior to breaking through. He’s already got four top-six finishes at elevated events this season, so he is contending in the strongest fields on the back of some gaudy approach numbers. Critics will point to the fact that he tends to do most of his best work in difficult scoring conditions, but a fourth at Detroit Golf Club, an extremely similar test to TPC Craig Ranch, proves otherwise. The putter can certainly get hot enough for him to keep up in this style of test, which will should play a fair amount harder than last year as well. In a tournament bereft of bankable options, Hatton is the only way I can look at the top.

• Hideki Matsuyama, $9,800 (Projected ownership: 17.1%) (AM/PM): Of course, there’s always risk involved with Hideki Matsuyama. I believe he possesses the second highest ceiling in this field, but he also has a low floor that could include him withdrawing three holes into the tournament. Of course, that is baked into his ownership and price. There is a healthy amount of skepticism surrounding the former Masters champion this week and for good reason, as we have not seen him since his 16th place finish at the Masters. There are still a few reasons why I think he’s worth the risk despite the fact that we aren’t totally sure where his game is at or if he is even fully healthy. First of all, prolonged absences for Hideki are commonplace at this point. At this event last year, we also hadn’t seen him since the Masters, and he proceeded to finish third on the back of a plus eleven ball-striking performance. This is also a much weaker field than last year, which featured the likes of Jordan Spieth, Will Zalatoris, and Justin Thomas, as well as Scottie Scheffler, amongst others. Hideki’s price and ownership this week is incredibly fair for the upside that he possesses, and prior to this absence, it’s not exactly if he was playing poorly. He still finished 16th at the aforementioned Masters, gaining 3.4 strokes on approach. He also finished ninth at the Farmers, fifth at the Players, and 15th at the Valero. So he went to Japan to get a medical treatment? The assumption is that things could have only gotten better, and he was already playing at a level before the treatment that is equivalent of the third best player in the field. I think Hideki is under-owned in this spot and a worthy risk.

• Brandon Wu, $7,800 (Projected ownership: 9.4%) (PM/AM): I have thought Brandon Wu was a stud since he used to wipe the floor with me in high school matches. After a decorated career at Stanford, Wu is really starting to show his meddle at the PGA Tour level. He was last seen finishing third at Vidanta Vallarta, another wide open, driver and long iron heavy golf course with very few shots of consequence and predictably easy scoring conditions. Another contending performance at Pebble Beach shows a player that can absolutely keep up in a birdie fest and thrives on second shot golf courses where there is room to operate off the tee. Once we get in the $7K range, there are actually very few players that can boast multiple contending performances this season. I think Wu is one of the highest upside options in this range and that we are still early on him as an industry. TPC Craig Ranch is the perfect breakthrough spot for the 26-year-old.

• David Lipsky, $7,100 (Projected ownership: 1.1%) (AM/PM): If you are looking for a low-owned flier with legitimate top-five upside, I present the case for David Lipsky. The Northwestern product is coming off a missed cut where he still gained over four strokes on approach. I love finding value on players that are coming off a poor performance on the surface, but actually hit the ball incredibly well. Lipsky does possess contending upside, with a fourth already this season at the Sony Open. A player that ranks seventh in this field in opportunities gained is underperforming to what his expected scoring could be. A return to Bent-grass, which has better a better surface for him, could be just what the doctor ordered. A 24th at TPC Deere Run and a sixth at Vidanta Vallarta also display a player that is incredibly comfortable in wide open birdie-fests as well. I feel great about this one.

Chalk Report

• $10K: With the Jordan Spieth withdrawal, only two players remain in the $10K range, Scottie Scheffler, and Tyrrell Hatton. Suddenly, we almost have a situation reminiscent of Mexico a few weeks ago, where one the top two $10K plus options are in at least 65% of lineups. Scheffler in the 40% zone feels about right this week. Expect that number to be a bit higher in smaller contests, just like we saw with Rahm and Mexico, but I do not believe there is as much overwhelming conviction this week that Scheffler should win this event. I actually believe that given the dearth of options, Hatton at 25% is incredibly fair. He could be nearly half the ownership of Scheffler, and is a whopping $1800 cheaper. My interest in him this week is well documented.

• $9K: The Spieth withdrawal can be felt in this range as well, as even a traditionally low-owned, high risk player like Hideki Matsuyama will be a fairly popular option this week. With that being said, my best bet for the highest owned player in this range would still be Tom Kim. I do not foresee a ton of separation between Matsuyama, Kim, Jason Day, and Adam Scott however. I believe that this entire foursome will fall between 14 and 21%, with Kim on the higher end, Day and Scott on the lower end, and Matsuyama in the middle. The “leverage” play this week is Si Woo Kim, who I have coming in at an even 10%. Matt Kuchar will definitely draw more interest than Kim, but I have him capping out around 14%.

• $8K: The $8K range is where there is finally an opportunity to take some shots. I have Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Stephan Jaeger leading the charge and both falling between 13 and 16%, with Jaeger on the higher end, and Bezuidenhout on the lower end. After that, there really isn’t much to worry about from an ownership standpoint, and much of the $8K range once again finds itself dead. I have Seamus Power, Tom Hoge, Taylor Montgomery, and Byeong Hun An checking in at high single digits to low double digits, and Maverick McNealy, Min Woo Lee, Aaron Wise, and Adam Hadwin all comfortably below 10%. Coming off a prolonged absence for mental health, Aaron Wise will be 3% maximum, and could be worth a flier given the amount of exposure it will only require to gain significant leverage on the field. If you feel more safe with Min Woo, Hadwin, or even McNealy though, both will barely garner much more ownership than Wise. One of those four is going to finish top-15.

• $7K: In such a down week, groupthink does tend to consolidate and that’s when we start to see a 15% Dylan Wu and things of that nature. I understand why Wu is a popular low $7K option, but this is obscene. Shame on all of you. Give me David Lipsky at a price discount and one fifteenth of the ownership ten times out often. Players such as Sam Stevens, Michael Kim, and Eric Cole are also worth monitoring. I have all three coming in over 10%, and if one of them crept up closer to 15%, I would not be surprised. At the very top of the range, Davis Riley and Joseph Bramlett will both come in at a palatable 10ish percent. Unfortunately, my favorite long shot of the week, Nate Lashley, is another one to monitor, and I would not be surprised if he eclipsed the ten percent threshold as well. Even Adam Schenk and Jimmy Walker are getting irresponsible amounts of love. I think the $7K range feeling more chalky this week is indicative of Scheffler heavy builds that are dismissing options in the $8K range. I prefer the savings on Hatton, avoiding a lot of this $7K chalk, and taking my chances that one of those low owned $8K players come through.

• $6K: With the low $7K range accounting for more chalk than usual, the $6K range is fairly dead this week. Players that will garner more attention than their peers include Kevin Roy, Carson Young, and Kevin Chappell, but I would be shocked if any of them cleared six or seven percent. Roy is absolutely my preferred option of that group, and I also endorse Troy Merritt and Satoshi Kodaira as punts.