By RickRunGood

Technically this will be our second “Signature Event” with The Sentry serving as the first. But this is our first look at what these contests will truly look like in 2024. It’s a field of 80 golfers, with no cut. Obviously, since there is a massive purse ($20,000,000), we’ve got all the best players on TOUR teeing it up this week.

The strength of field at this event has dwindled over the past half decade, averaging just a 205.4 Field Rating from the OWGR. That number will spike thanks to Signature Status and will mark the first time since the 2019 U.S. Open that this many top players all converged on Pebble Beach.

There’s another quirk for this week, since it is still a pro-am event. In previous years that would feature a three course rotation but with a smaller field, this will only be played across two courses – Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill. Each golfer in the field will play one round at each course before competing at Pebble Beach for the final two rounds.

Rory’s Weapon Is Holstered (Off-the-Tee)

Pebble Beach is one of the most unique courses on TOUR when it comes to off-the-tee play. At just 268 yards, Pebble Beach sports the shortest average drive on the schedule. The layout simply does not allow nor reward those who can bomb it off-the-tee.

Hole 8 (above) is a nice example. From the absolute tips to the absolute farther point of the fairway is 273 yards. However, the dog-leg right rewards shots that are played up the right side of the fairway, making the approach shot shorter. Or – at least in theory it does. Because when you look at the collection of birdies (red dots), they are all over the place. Some from the far right of the fairway, some from the middle, some from the left side and even a few from the left rough. There wasn’t really any advantage for driving it to a specific location.

Obviously being longer and more accurate than your peers is going to give you an edge, but statistically both are middle of the road compared to other courses on the schedule.

There are two ways to defeat Pebble Beach and separate from the field.

Find The Surface, No Matter What! (Approach)

First and foremost, hit the green. That sounds much easier than it actually is considering Pebble Beach offers the smallest greens on the TOUR at 3,500 square feet on average. The average birdie putt length is 18.07’ – the third lowest on TOUR. Obviously I attribute that to short shots coming in to small greens. Meaning that if you have a birdie putt, it’s going to be closer than say TPC Scottsdale which has an average birdie opportunity length of 23.11’.

The “GIR Reward” at Pebble Beach is one of the biggest that we will see.

The Rare Scrambling Week
(Around-the-Green)

Let’s be real – hitting the green is a massive reward because it’s hard to do. And there will be plenty (PLENTY!) of missed greens. Which means a sound short-game will be critical to keep rounds in check.

According to the Course Key Stats Regression Model, Strokes Gained Around-The-Green is highly correlated to success at this course. In fact, there are only four other courses in which SG ARG is more correlated to success.

The raw value (0.200) of correlation is stronger than the raw value for SG Off-the-Tee (0.173). Going through the course list, there’s only two other courses where around-the-green play is more correlated than off-the-tee play – TPC Twin Cities and TPC Summerlin.

Pebble Beach was the 11th most difficult course to get up-and-down from last year and hasn’t ranked outside the top third of that stat category in the last five years.

The best scramblers in this field:

Another Week, Another Poa Problem (Putting)

After hearing about the difficulties getting to the green, these putting surfaces must offer some level of reprieve – right? Well – not exactly. Another week of West Coast Poa Annua where getting the ball to actually fall is easier said than done.

Putting from 4’-8’: 3rd hardest
Putting from Inside 10’: 3rd
Putting from 10’-15’: 6th
Putting from 15’-20’: 13th
Putting from 20’-25’: 5th

Here’s every player in the field who has at least 20 rounds at this event – putting on these surfaces:

The required skill-sets and field depth have me believing that there’s a lot of different golfers who can find success this week. Ideally, I’m looking for great approach players with top-notch short-games. I’ll be much less worried about distance, or even accuracy, off-the-tee this week.

The early forecasts show a wet week in store for the boys which could certainly create another preferred lie situation. We will keep an eye on the weather as we get closer and see if there will be any advantages or disadvantages along the way.

Looking forward to another great week with you!