By Andy Lack

The 2023 BMW Championship Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

With such a small field, there’s no real wave split, but avoid the players teeing off on Thursday morning if you can. 40 mph wind gusts on Thursday morning with a bit of rain is comical stuff. Bring on the carnage, we were due. The afternoon looks a bit better, but still sustained gusts upwards of 20 mph are seriously no joke. Friday certainly looks easier, and features fairly consistent wind speed throughout the day. Here are some notable players teeing off early on Thursday morning that I would tread lightly with: Jordan Spieth, Sungjae Im, Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, Brian Harman, and Tommy Fleetwood. Yet even so, none of those players will play more than 50% in the most brutal of conditions.

Core Four

• Scottie Scheffler, $11,600 (Projected ownership: 16.1%): It’s hard to remember the last time that Scottie Scheffler has been featured in this column. He is nearly always the highest priced player on the slate, and even at colossal price points, the former Masters champion is rarely under-appreciated by DFS players. Not only is Scheffler a robust $500 cheaper than Rory McIlroy, but I also believe he will come in at lower ownership than McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and maybe even Patrick Cantlay. Golf is a “What Have You Done For Me Lately” sport, especially at the top, and two finishes of 23rd and 30th has the six-time PGA Tour winner feeling like chopped liver. I still think this is a wonderful bounce back spot for him, and I am far from deterred that the ball-striking wasn’t up to his usual lofty standards last week. Scheffler still gained four strokes ball-striking, which was remarkably his worst ball-striking performance in 17 starts. For context, Sam Burns has gained over four strokes ball-striking once this year. Scottie Scheffler’s worst ball-striking performance of the season, would be Burns’ (a good ball-striker in his own right) second best week of the season. We’ve established such a comically high floor with Scheffler, that any time he is sub $12K and under 20% ownership, I find it more difficult to make an argument not to play him than the contrary. I haven’t even gotten started on the course fit either. If I had to make one course comparison to Olympia Fields, I would point folks in the direction of Oak Hill, a golf course I am very familiar with. Scheffler was right there from start to finish at the 2023 PGA, which is unsurprising given that he is one of only three players in this field along with Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy to rank top-five over the last two years in both difficult scoring conditions and on firm golf courses. What I believe separates Scheffler from Rahm and Rory is that Scheffler has a better short game (right now), and he has all season. Olympia Fields has featured one of the lowest non-major greens in regulation percentages over the past decade, and Scheffler’s short game prowess could prove incredibly valuable this week. This is a lay-up “Buy the Dip” spot on the best player in the world. Hit the lock button and move on.

• Tyrrell Hatton, $9,000 (Projected ownership: 15.4%): Tyrrell Hatton finds himself in a somewhat similar position to Scottie Scheffler this week. He was a popular selection last week, but a disappointing 43rd-place finish at the FedEx St. Jude’s has his price and ownership cratering. In a 50-man field, at this price, rolling with a player who has gained strokes ball-striking in 22 straight starts, and has recorded 13 top-30 finishes in 19 starts is an absolute no-brainer. Despite never crossing the finish line, Hatton has been a top-10 golfer in the world this year. His consistency has been remarkable, and his eight top-10 finishes this season, many of them coming in elevated events, are amongst the most on Tour. Now Hatton returns to a firm and fast golf course with narrow fairways and thick rough, not all that dissimilar in strategic value than the brutally difficult 2019 rendition of Bay Hill, where the fiery Englishman was the last man standing. Hatton ranks sixth in this field over the last two years on firm golf courses, and he remains one of the best drivers of the ball, short to middle iron players, and Bent-grass putters in this field as well. What separates Olympia Fields from its aesthetically similar counterparts in Torrey Pines and Bay Hill is that it features far more undulating green complexes, and Hatton is a top-five lag putter in this field as well. From a statistical standpoint, he remains one of the most well-rounded players in the world, and I’m over-joyed to catch him at this price and ownership, on this golf course, in a fairly obvious bounce back spot.

• Cameron Young, $8,500 (Projected ownership: 9.1%): We’re going back to the well for one more week with Cameron Young, who has to be the most unserious golfer ever to nearly win four of the last eight majors. I really thought it was coming for him last week in Memphis. I liked that golf course for him (almost as much I like this one for him) and I loved the symmetry of his Wake Forest teammate, Will Zalatoris, finally breaking through at the same spot last year as well. A 31st-place finish was heavily disappointing, although his driver still looked spectacular. After nearly gaining 10 strokes on approach at the Open, Young has lost with his irons in back to back starts. I am far deterred, as the 26-year-old is sneakily one of the best long-term short to middle iron players in this field. He was still just mediocre enough last week for us to catch him at an appetizing price and ownership on a golf course where Young should be able to dominate off the tee. He’s already performed well at Bay Hill and Torrey Pines, and Young ranks sixth in this field in strokes gained off the tee on narrow golf courses with thick rough. Obviously, the putter is always going to remain a concern, but he’s had enough success on Bent-grass before. The motivation should be there as well, as I would imagine that Young needs a high-end finish to secure his spot on the Ryder Cup team. For my money, he’s unquestionably one of the 12 best American golfers in the field, but his resume doesn’t exactly back that up. My hope is that changes this week.

• Nick Taylor, $5,900 (Projected ownership: 7.8%): I continue be surprised by the price we are getting on Nick Taylor. He’s coming off a rock solid 24th in Memphis where he gained 1.9 strokes off the tee and 4.4 strokes on approach. For a golfer that’s won twice this year and has recorded five top-10s already this season, I cannot comprehend why he is priced at the very bottom of this field. Similar to Matthew Southgate and Marcel Siem at the Open Championship, if you can find a player or two in the 5K range that you legitimately believe is mis-priced, it can be a massive asset to your DraftKings core. Forget course fit or form (although both work in Taylor’s favor), this is an incorrect price. The great nation of Canada continues be disrespected at every turn by the Crooked PGA Tour, and the lack of respect on a National Open winner has me up in arms as well. Taylor ranks better than field average in Bent/Poa putting, long-term proximity from 125-175 yards, and strokes gained total on firm golf courses. He’s even seen the course before, finishing 51st here in 2020. Especially when we consider the fact that there is some fairly disgusting groupthink occurring below $7K this week, catching Nick Taylor in this spot is an absolute gift. He allows me a ton of breathing room in my Scheffler lineups, and it would not be the least bit surprising to me if he made some serious noise this week in Chicago, on a golf course with similar agronomical conditions to his recent win north of the boarder.

Chalk Report 

• $10K: With more variance in pricing this week, the $10K range presents us with six different options this week. Usually a position held by Scottie Scheffler, the highest priced player on the slate is actually Rory McIlroy at $12,100. I have seen a ton of love for McIlroy in the betting markets, and that is certainly translating to DraftKings as well. Despite the exuberant price tag, I still have McIlroy as the highest owned player in this range at about 21%. Next up are Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm, who I have fairly even at around 15-17%. Given the price and ownership discount, I prefer both Scheffler and Rahm to Rory this week. I certainly understand the Rory love, but I’m surprised he was able to separate himself so clearly in popularity from Scheffler and Rahm at that price. After Rahm at $11,200, we have a $700 price difference before we get to the next tier of Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele, and Jordan Spieth. I have Cantlay at 16%, Hovland at 15%, Xander at 13%, and Spieth at 9%. It’s pretty tight for me between Cantlay, Hovland, and Xander. I’m currently leaning towards Xander, but I can’t say I feel strongly in a single direction. With ownership so close between all three, it’s safe to choose your own adventure. No one loves playing the high priced low-owned player like myself, but after watching closely last week in Memphis, I want no piece of Jordan Spieth this week.

• $9K: Eight options to choose from this week in the $9K range, and I must admit I’m surprised that both Sungjae Im and Hideki Matsuyama are priced this highly. I understand Lucas Glover’s inclusion in this range given the recent form, but Sungjae and Matsuyama still feel like mid to high $8K golfers to me right now. I have Sungjae coming in at 13%, and Hideki at 10.5%. Folks are still riding the Tommy Fleetwood train, who I have as the highest owned player in this range, coming in at a robust 17%. I actually far preferred the golf course last week for Fleetwood, and for better or worse, I’m hopping off in exchange for a Max Homa/Tyrrell Hatton. Since ownership is fairly bunched in this range, I’ll rank the eight choices in terms of my personal preference:
  • Tyrrell Hatton, $9,000 (15.5%)
  • Max Homa, $9,500 (13.5%)
  • Hideki Matsuyama, $9,400 (10.5%)
  • Collin Morikawa, $9,800 (12.5%)
  • Tommy Fleetwood, $9,700 (17%)
  • Sungjae Im, $9,300 (13%)
  • Rickie Fowler, $9,200 (12%)
  • Lucas Glover, $9,100 (11%)

• $8K: In a range that usually gets overlooked, there’s tons of directions we could go here. Much to my surprise, I have Russell Henley as the most popular option in this range at around 17%. Henley is playing some fantastic golf right now, and he probably should have won at Sedgefield. I’m still not remotely there on the course fit, and I’m shocked that more folks aren’t factoring his departure from short, positional Bermuda courses to a big, brawny Bent-grass track. Once we get past Henley, things to start to even out fairly quickly. Let’s rank in terms of preference:
  • Cameron Young, $8,500 (9%)
  • Tony Finau, $8,300 (9.5%)
  • Corey Conners, $8,900 (12%)
  • Jason Day, $8,600 (10%)
  • Matt Fitzpatrick, $8,000 (7%)
  • Sam Burns, $8,400 (10%)
  • Wyndham Clark, $8,800 (8%)
  • Russell Henley, $8,200 (17%)
  • Tom Kim, $8,700 (13%)
  • Brian Harman, $8,100 (9.5%)

I will add that I absolutely love this buy low spot for Tony Finau. I’m enamored by the course fit, and Finau’s ball-striking has still looked rock solid. The Ryder Cup hopeful looked incredibly comfortable on and around the greens at Olympia Fields in 2020, and my hope is that he can channel some of that putting and short game magic once again. Corey Conners always seems to break the mold on long golf courses that devalue driving accuracy. Even the most accurate drivers of the ball tend to miss the fairways at tracks such as Oak Hill and Olympia Fields. Except Corey Conners. The Canadian remains one of the few shorter, accurate players in this field that does not lower his baseline on golf courses that devalue accuracy off the tee. I do like Jason Day this week as a sleeper too. I trust him on this style of track, and we’re just one start removed from a runner-up finish at the Open. I can’t say I gave the remaining five players any strong consideration however.

• $7K: With such a small $7K range, do not be surprised if the ownership numbers start getting a bit out of hand here. Let’s run through the players we need to be concerned about from top to bottom: Cameron Davis (15%), J.T. Poston (12%), Si Woo Kim (14.5%). Byeong Hun An (19.5%), Emiliano Grillo (18.5%), and Keegan Bradley (16%). Grillo and An are the most egregious to me, but I don’t think it’s reasonable to avoid every single one of these guys this week. Bradley is objectively under-priced, and he will absolutely be in my pool. I’m continuing to ride with Si Woo Kim as well. I will say that given the wide range of prices, you can skip the $7K range entirely. Not a single one of my core plays in the sevens this week, and I have multiple lineups that feature zero $7K golfers. I’ll also give brief shouts to Justin Rose and Sepp Straka, two players that played brilliantly at Oak Hill this year, and should come in between eight and 12%.

• $6K: There are some fairly outlandish things happening in the $6K range this week. I’m not sure I fully believe this, but I have Lee Hodges as… the highest owned player on the slate. I’ve seen Hodges as high as 25% in some spots, and while I have him closer to 22%, that one is a massive head-scratcher. Chris Kirk and Nick Taylor are both much more intriguing options to me at nearly half the ownership. This Adam Schenk stuff is beyond irresponsible as well. I have Schenk coming in around 18%, which is mind boggling. A couple other players that will be comfortably above 10% include Brendon Todd (10.5%), Eric Cole (13.5%), Adam Svensson (13.5%), and Chris Kirk (13.5%). Kirk is an absolute yes for me, and he almost my core four. I think Cole is playable as well, as I was encouraged to see his driver turn around in Memphis, but I want zero part of Todd and Svensson.