By Andy Lack

The 2023 Butterfield Bermuda Championship Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS, and is the type of finding small edge that over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

As I wrote about in my Monday course preview article, Port Royal is one of the most wind affected courses on the PGA Tour. With that being said, it also features one of the worst fields on the PGA Tour, and the good plays this week are few and far between. As it stands now, I am not seeing a discernible difference or advantage for either wave. Of course that could change, which is why I would recommend tuning into my final DK show with Tambo later this evening. Yet ultimately, even if a perceived edge emerges, don’t simply scrap the good plays to find a wind narrative. It’s a coastal course on Bermuda afterall. I still remember the PLAYERS Championship a few years ago when the reverse consensus weather edge came to fruition. The only thing I can say with certainty on Wednesday morning is that Friday will be a tougher go than Thursday. Yet as of now, I’m just sticking to my guns and playing the guys I want, regardless of their tee time.

Core Four

• Thomas Detry, $10,500 (Projected ownership: 19.4%): In full disclosure, I had a difficult time choosing at the top. I have no major problems with Brendon Todd, Adam Scott, or Akshay Bhatia either, and my numbers don’t see a whole lot of separation in them either. I settled on Detry because I do believe he possess the most pure upside based on his ability to completely overpower this golf course, like we saw him do last year when he finished runner-up. Closer followers of the DP World Tour have developed a bit of a contentious relationship with the Belgian due to his circumventing inability to close the door on Sundays. That’s certainly valid, but as I have joked many times already this week, there are simply no rules at the Butty B. If a 20% Brendon Todd at $10.7K this week is your cup of tee, I really can’t make a strong argument against it. There is more talent in most Korn Ferry Tour events, and certainly many of the DP World Tour tournaments that Detry has come so agonizingly close in. Point being, every single lineup this week is going to feature some uncomfortable clicks, and players at prices that we are not used to. If you want to completely jettison the highest priced players under the belief that there is not much separating them from those in the $9K range, than I cannot argue against you either (although I do have some issues with a few players in the nines.) To me, Detry still feels an incredibly safe bet to perform on this specific golf course. Despite his over-imposing length, short courses are his absolute jam, as the 30-year-old ranks first in this entire field on courses under 7,200 yards. What also sets Detry apart from other bombers is that he can putt. The former University of Illinois standout ranks top-25 in this field on slower Bermuda greens, and he also raises his around the green baseline on Bermuda-grass as well. Coming off a more than serviceable 38th at the World Wide Technologies Championship, I expect Detry to continue his strong form at a spot he has already proven to be more than comfortable at.

• Ryan Palmer, $8,500 (Projected ownership: 7.2%): I have been forced into a staunch defense of Ryan Palmer this week, and while I do believe he stands an excellent chance to win the tournament, a DraftKings play on the 47-year-old is an even easier case than I could make for the outright. The argument is simple. Port Royal is an incredibly unique course in the sense that it requires very zero middle iron skill. There are 12 wedge shots and six long iron shots. Ryan Palmer is the only player in this field to rank top-10 in proximity inside 100 yards, and proximity from 200 yards plus. When it comes to flip wedges and long irons, there is not a player in this field more primed for the challenge than Palmer. He also ranks top-30 in this field in opportunities gained, birdies or better gained, and ball-striking in windy conditions. While he has never played this golf course before, the four-time PGA Tour winner’s track record at Pebble Beach and Waialae leads me to believe that he should be more than comfortable around the confines of Port Royal. You play Ryan Palmer at short, coastal tracks. Especially if it’s windy. I will say, I like him a bit less this week if we see incredibly benign conditions, but the weather forecast as of Wednesday morning does show that we will see at least some pushback in the form of wind. And even if we don’t, who could forget his 22-under par birdie barrage at the 2004 Funai Classic at the Walt Disney Resort?

• Troy Merritt, $7,800 (Projected ownership: 8.1%): A low owned Troy Merritt is always a good idea at a wedges and putting course. There are few players that possess the combination of elite wedge play (by this field’s standards) and elite Bermuda-grass putting (by this field’s standards), but Merritt checks both boxes with flying colors. The two-time PGA Tour winner ranks seventh in this field in proximity inside 100 yards, and fifth in slow Bermuda-grass putting. He also ranks top-25 on short courses and in windier conditions. While Merritt only has a ho-hum 40th-place finish here in 2021, the 38-year old has a number of high end finishes at Pebble Beach, and is one of the biggest risers in this field in easy scoring conditions. Merritt is almost the inverse to Palmer, and some insurance in that sense. I prefer Palmer if we see tougher than expected conditions this week, and I prefer Merritt if we see easier conditions. Both are still suitable plays if the opposite comes to fruition, and are being far too neglected from a DraftKings standpoint. While Merritt is coming off just a satisfactory 65th-place finish at the World Wide Technologies Championship, I was highly encouraged by his final round 65, and he already has a seventh at the Fortinet and ninth at the Sanderson Farms this fall swing. These low-pressure, easy scoring fall swing events are undeniably the place to utilize the former Barbasol Championship winner, and I expect him to play a major factor come Sunday afternoon in Bermuda.

• Kevin Yu, $7,800 (Projected ownership: 7.4%): Kevin Yu might just be a ponzi scheme, but it’s Butty B week, so no rules apply. The stats with Yu always look solid, and this week is no different. He’s a top-25 iron player in this field, both serviceable inside 125 yards, and even a little bit better from 200 yards plus. He ranks third in this field in opportunities gained, which is true remarkable given how little he actually gets out of the birdie opportunities that he generates. He’s one of the best ball-strikers in windy conditions (albeit a small sample size), and two of his best finishes this season came at short, coastal tracks in the form of a 21st at the Sony Open and a seventh at the AT & T National Pro-Am at Pebble Beach. Oh by the way, he also finished third at this golf course last year. There may not be a stronger on paper fit than Kevin Yu this week, certainly not at this price point. Yet I have been down this road with Yu before, and it never ends well. The 25-year-old is coming off a missed cut by three at the World Wide Technologies Championship, and prior to that, he finished 59th at the Zozo, MC at the Shriners, MC at the Sanderson Farms, and MC at the Fortinet. The reason why his results largely don’t line up with his stats, is a bit of a luck, but a lot of putting. In terms of recent putting, Yu has been absolutely dreadful, ranking 126th in this field. Yet he actually raises his baseline significantly when placed on slow, Bermuda-grass greens. Yu might end up ultimately being token good stats, bad results player on Tour, but if there is ever a week to take a risk and blindly believe in the numbers, this is it. At bear minimum, while his numbers deem him a good fit for any course, these are the types of tracks he has actually been good on. I’ll take the plunge just one more time.

Chalk Report

• 10K: As previously alluded to, I don’t take major issue with any of the options in the $10K range. My numbers don’t suggest a whole lot of separation between any, as all four rank as top-10 plays for me statistically. Unsurprisingly, I do believe that Akshay Bhatia will be the most popular choice at 24%. Coming off a 10th place finish in Mexico, Bhatia has already established himself as an elite coastal/tropical player who raises his baseline on slower surfaces. I have Adam Scott next at 21.5%, and he is the player in this range with the highest range of outcomes, and the only with no course experience. Brendon Todd comes next at 21%, and he checks the most boxes statistically for me as the number one play by my numbers. I still have concerns about his lack of upside. At this stage of his career, his only true chance of finding the winner’s circle is with a +7 putting week, whereas the other players in this range are not quite as reliant on one aspect of their game. I’ve mentioned the separation I have between these players is negligible, and ownership was always going to be my tiebreaker. I’ve thus settled on Thomas Detry at 19% as my preferred option this week. He’s a touch over-priced in this field, but that argument could be made about many players. It’s the Butty B afterall. Yet with all four players ranging between 19 and 25% in ownership, you’ve got the leniency to play who your heart desires.

• 9K: Here’s where we get to see ownership start to spread out and some choices are forced to be made. I’ll start with the two most popular options: Ben Griffin and Taylor Pendrith. I have both coming in around 20-21%. I far prefer Griffin in this scenario, but I understand Pendrith as a discounted option to Detry. I actually think Lucas Glover is the most under-priced player in this range, and I would have expected him to get the most love. I’ve got Glover coming in at a robust 16.5%. He’s certainly not sneaking up on anyone, but I’d be surprised if he caught Pendrith or Griffin. Next up is Doug Ghim at 15%, a player I’m fairly neutral on this week. I actually like him a little bit more than the three lower owned players I am about to mention, but in a vacuum, I’d still give Glover the nod. The final three players do present some leverage. I’ve got Lucas Herbert at 10.5%, Alex Noren at 11.5%, and Luke List at 12.5%. I guess  I’d go List, Noren, Herbert, if forced to rank in terms of preference? I’m not a huge fan of either of the three. Glover and Ghim make the most sense to me here.

• 8K: There are some players here. I have Alex Smalley as a bonafide $9K guy in this field, so $8.9K is a gift. With that being said, he will carry the most ownership. I’ve got him coming in at a robust 19.5%. This actually might finally be the Mark Hubbard breakout week I have been hoping for all Fall swing. Coming off a missed cut, 11.5% is more than fair. He was the last man out in my core four. I’ve already shared my love for Ryan Palmer, and I’d advocate for flop-lag plays on Davis Riley and Brandon Wu as well. Both will come in between 9 and 13%. I have zero interest in the other five players, but I’ll still rank them in terms of preference:
  • Vincent Whaley, $8,000 (13%)
  • Nick Hardy, $8,600 (12.5%)
  • Dylan Wu, $8,200 (11.5%)
  • Stewart Cink, $8,300 (3%)
  • MJ Daffue, $8,000 (6%)

I could think of at least five players in the sevens that should be highest priced than Cink and Daffue, but you can at least catch a huge break on both from an ownership perspective. I still think Palmer and Hubbard is the most logical direction here. I’m going to eat it and play one of Smalley or Griffin. I bet both players to win, but have been disappointed with the ownership I’ll have to stomach. Maybe one catches some late steam this afternoon which will make the decision easier, as I’ve gone back and forth too many times already this morning.

• 7K: There’s something for everyone down here, and the players receiving the most love are beyond confusing to me. Here are the guys I feel confident will come in with double digits ownership, ranked in terms of preference:
  • Matthias Schmid, $7,700 (11.5%)
  • Austin Smotherman, $7,200 (11%)
  • Justin Lower, $7,600 (15%)
  • Peter Malnati, $7,400 (10.5%)

I enjoy some Justin Lower from time to time, but I have no understanding of why this is the week everyone is deciding to play him. That’s an easy pass. Matti Schmid makes the most sense to me. He destroys the ball off the tee and is an excellent long iron player too, with already a few awesome ball-striking performances under his belt this Fall. Still, my favorite three in the high sevens are Peter Kuest, Troy Merritt, and Kevin Yu. I’ve got all coming in at a very palatable six to nine percent. A few of my favorites in the low sevens include David Lipsky, Patton Kizzire, Russell Knox, Andrew Novak, Scott Piercy, and Charley Hoffman. There’s an outside chance that Knox hits double digits (Kelly Kraft could too?) I still wouldn’t be concerned too much about ownership down here.

• 6K: The only real name to report down here is the Prince of Port Royal, the Baron of the Butterflield, none other than Brian Gay. Here’s the thing about Brian Gay. I really can’t argue against the play, even at 10%. It’s not for me personally, but if that’s how you want to get down this week, all power to you. Instead, I’ll take one more ride on the Kevin Roy carousel. A true Ponzi scheme. Ryan Armour, Satoshi Kodaira, and Jason Dufner are all playable options. A sentence I never expected to type in 2023.

Good luck this week – AL