by Brett Dadian | May 29, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, MLB |
We have a 9 game slate this morning, and Carlos Carrasco gets a mention facing the A’s. The Athletics strikeout a ton, and that plays right into Carrasco’s hands. He strikes out hitters at a 26% rate, and should have a solid shot at a win. At $9,300, Carlos is at a good price point to still fit in some good bats. He hasn’t been running well of late, but should get back on track here. Carrasco is good for both cash and GPPs.
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Mike Leake faces the Dodgers in Busch Stadium. Leake is super consistent, and I like it at only $8,100. Leake might not have the most upside, but he does have a high floor. Very good wOBA’s to both sides of the plate, and a good K% vs. righties. If you want a boom or bust play look to Rich Hill in the same game. Blisters is a issue for Hill, but the K upside is good.
The Cubs get to face Cosart today, and this is a great spot. Cosart doesn’t miss a ton of bats on either sides of the plate, so the ball will be in play a lot. He struggles mainly vs. the lefties, but Cosart is just flat out trash. I’m looking to Rizzo, Schwarber, Zobrist, and Bryant. Petco Park is pretty big, but no park can hold the Cubs. This stack might be popular, but I’m willing to eat the chalk.
David Price makes his season debut vs. the White Sox, in Chicago. These White Sox can crush lefties. Avisail, Frazier, Davidson and Abreu are my main targets. This stack should be low owned just from the name value Price brings tot he table. Price has a 9.53 ERA in 5.2 innings in the minors, so maybe things aren’t back for David yet. He should be on a pitch count so maybe he gets shelled and we see a few bullpen arms here.
by Brett Dadian | May 28, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, MLB |
It’s Sunday and we have a 11 games for the early slate on DraftKings. McCullers and Pineda are only the top options on today’s slate, but Im rolling with Pineda vs. the A’s. Pineda has the biggest strikeout upside on the slate, because he still strikes out out lefties 28.5% of the time, so even these switch hitters in the A’s lineup will get sent down. Pineda does have the tendency to give up a few long balls, but the K upside is not something to pass up on.
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For my second pitcher, it is pretty gross but I’m playing Joe Biangini vs. the Texas Rangers. Biangini has had a couple of rough outings recently, but does have very good stats this season. The Rangers will strikeout a lot, but have a lot of power too. Avoiding the bats of Gallo, Odor and Mazara will be Biangini’s biggest challenge. This is a GPP play only, if you want the safety in cash games, you should probably pay up for McCullers or Shoemaker.
The Nats face Jhoulys Chacin in Washington. Chacin struggles to get lefties out, so Harper, Murphy and Weiters instantly become great plays. Adding in Rendon, Turner or Zimmerman, to finish out the stack is the way I’m going. This team can jump on a lot of starting pitchers, and vs. Chacin who gives up 2.45 HR/9 to lefties, makes it all the more likely.
Kyle Gibson faces a powerful Rays lineup at home. The Rays get a better ballpark to hit in at Targets Field, and a pitcher who gives up 2.51 HR/9 to lefties. With Dickerson, Morrison and Rasmus, that are basically home run or bust type hitters. Gibson has a .408 wOBA to righties, so don’t ignore Longoria and Souza Jr.
by Brett Dadian | May 27, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, MLB |
Today’s pitching options above 11KÂ in the early games are almost non existent. What we do have in the early slate is Zack Greinke. Greinke who is $11,900 on DraftKings, facing his former ball club, the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers do have some solid hitters, but they do strikeout a lot. Braun hit the DL, and now we only have to worry about Thames and Shaw. Sure the Brewers could tag Greinke, but wOBA’s are down, and the strikeout rate is elite. Greinke is good for all formats.
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Now we can’t take 2 pitchers above 11K and gets nice bats in, so Jake Odorizzi is my SP2 at $7,600. He came through for us last time, now he gets a little tougher test in Minnesota. The Twins are a team that will strikeout, and with a gross slate like this, I’ll take another 20 point performance from Odorizzi here. Jake is very tough on right handed bats, only allowing a .258 wOBA. The left handed bats of the Twins in Kepler and Grossman do scare me, but I’m willing to roll the dice on Odorizzi.
Jharel Cotton has been getting smashed by right handed bats. A 42% hard contact rate will do him no favors when facing these Yankees. He should see Sanchez, Holiday, Castro and Judge at the top of the order, not to mention Chris Carter at the bottom. If we see the wind blowing out at Yankees Stadium, Cotton and his slugging percentage of .483 vs. righties will have a tough time navigating throughout this lineup today.
The Cincinnati Reds get a shot here, because Jerad Eickhoff is bad vs. lefties. A .359 wOBA isn’t good, and it won’t help that Eickhoff will have to face Votto, Schebler, Hamilton, Suarez and Cozart. They play in a small ballpark, and Jerad has struggled to contain left handed pop. Eickhoff does’t miss many bats, and when this Reds team gets going, they use the long ball and the stolen bases.
by Brett Dadian | May 26, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, MLB |
Today we have a 14 game slate, where we have some decisions to make for the top end pitchers. 3 high priced pitchers in Scherzer, deGrom (his start got pushed pushed back to today), and Archer. If you’re going to the top 3, my favorite is Scherzer. deGrom has a blister problem, and Archer is giving up almost 50% hard contact to lefties. Max has one of the highest strikeout upside in the MLB. Sure, he could give up a couple of long balls, but the Padres will strikeout. I’m not in love with paying up for pitchers, but Scherzer is the best option.
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Eduardo Rodriguez draws a start vs. the Mariners in Fenway Park. Rodriguez is finally showing some swing and stuff, and it has led to solid strikeout upside. He has been fairly “unlucky” with a .400 BAPIP vs. lefties. Eduardo has reverse splits, giving up .343 wOBA to lefties, but that should go down with the BAPIP. Almost a 30% K rate vs. righties is very good, and being solid vs. lefties puts him in a good spot at $8,800 on DraftKings. If you need a cheap pitcher, Matt Cain has been very good at home.
The Mets take on Chad Kuhl in PNC Park. A left handed heavy Mets team faces Kuhl, who owns a .486 wOBA vs. lefties. This won’t spell good things for Kuhl, as Bruce, Conforto and Walker can mash. PNC Park is better for left handed hitters, and the Mets could throw 7 lefties at him. Over a 40% hard contact rate and 20% K rate vs. lefties is not good. All the lefties, preferably Conforto and Bruce.
Joe Musgrove battles the Orioles in Houston, where Musgrove is giving up 1.93 HR/9 to righties. The wOBA sits at .367 to righties, and the slugging is almost at .500 The O’s top of the lineup will have Jones, Machado and Trumbo. This stack should go under owned, and has massive upside. Â Schoop could be used as a one off as well. Both sides of this game are in play.
by Brett Dadian | May 24, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, MLB |
Today’s Thursday slate brings us 2 slates, a 6 game early slate and 5 game main slate. In the morning slate, the pitching options are slim, but I’m going to Tyler Anderson in Philadelphia. Obviously this is a good park shift for Anderson, and he gets a Phillies team that strikes out a lot. Tyler Anderson’s stats are inflated due to Coors Field, but he has held hitters to low hard contact rates. He has rallied off 3 good starts in a row, now gets strikeout upside, and a better ballpark to pitch in. Sp2 on the early slate I like Andriese and Nova.
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Robbie Ray gets the ball as he faces the Brew Crew in Milwaukee. This is a GPP play only, because Robbie Ray has massive K upside, but could get blown up. The Brewers strikeout over 24% of the time, but they do have a lot of pop. If you need a safer pitcher, Michael Wacha faces the LA Dodgers. Wacha has been super consistent, going 6 innings in all of his starts. He does lack upside, but his floor is relatively high for a weak slate.
Bartolo is not good. I will continue to stack against him, especially in Sun Trust Park, that is playing super small. The Pirates aren’t a great hitting team, but this is the best spot on the slate. Both sides of the plate are slugging over .500 vs. Colon, and he is still giving up bombs. He doesn’t miss enough bats and is hard contact rate is really high. Frazier has been tearing the cover off the ball, and he is good for a one off too. The whole lineup is in play here vs. Bartolo.
Mike Fiers bleeds hard contact to righties, and most of the Tigers hitters are right handed. 5.82 HR/9 vs. righties is obviously going to regress, but it is not a good loo for Fiers to start the season. A .469 wOBA and .800 slugging vs. righties will not do Fiers any good in this matchup. Most of the Tigers bats are cheap enough, and you could get deGrom in there if you wanted. This is the best spot on the late slate, the Tigers can hit bombs, and Fiers loves to give them up.
by Brett Dadian | May 24, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, MLB |
We have a 10 game main slate today, with Chris Sale toping the pitching options. Luis Severino ($9,900) gets to face the Royals, and we all should know this is a great spot. We will see high ownership on Severino, but it is warranted. The Royals are finally not the worst offense in baseball according to wRC+, but this lineup is still really bad. Luis strikes out a good amount of righties, and also handles lefties well. This is my top option considering price, he will see a bad lineup and should gets some strikeouts today.
Today’s Projections | 2017 Game Logs | Player Scoring Calendar
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Ricky Nolasco ($7,700), a strikeout pitcher throws a ton of sliders. The Rays strikeout a ton, 26.6% vs. righties. Ricky is a pure GPP play, as the Rays have a lot of pop in their lineup. Nolasco is very good vs. lefties, holding a .308 wOBA, and that is where most of the Rays power is. If you want to look for a cheaper option, Robert Gsellman ($6,200), is in a fine spot vs, the Padres. San Diego strikes out quite a bit, so Gsellman does have some upside in this matchup. Both of these guys are GPPs plays.
The Yankees find themselves in a great spot faces Jason Hammel in Yankees Stadium. A .443 wOBA vs. righties, Holiday Castro Judge are the guys on the right side for me. This is a small park, and it will play smaller when you aren’t good at baseball. Hammel has been getting shellacked, and I expect to continue. Don’t forget about Didi and Headley, this stack will be high owned, but Didi and Headley may get overlooked.
Sam Gaviglio faces the Nationals today, and this spot is great. Low strikeout rate in the minors will only translate to a lot of balls hit, and the Nats hit baseballs hard. They will most likely be high owned, but these guys are worth it. We all know the upside with the Nats, Harper, Rendon, Werth, Murphy, Zimmerman, and Turner are all in play. Gaviglio is not very good, and this is the spot to stack against him.
