PGA Preview, AT&T Byron Nelson – DraftKings

by EPattersonFS | May 16, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA | 0 comments

What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! The PLAYERS has come and gone, and likely took your money along the way. Congrats to Si Woo Kim on the huge win! But it is time for us to move on and rebuild our bankrolls at the AT&T Byron Nelson.

The touring pros head to TPC Four Seasons Resort in Irving Texas for the 2017 Byron Nelson. This 7,100 yard, Par 70 will present golfers of all styles to have a chance to win. Hell, the 2014 edition of this event saw Brendon Todd and Mike Weir battle it out for the title. Let’s cross our fingers we have more exciting names at the top this season. Since it is a Par 70, I will be using Par 4 scoring as key stat this week, to go along with Birdie or Better Percentage (this tourney tends to be a shootout), Bogey Avoidance, Ball Striking, Strokes Gained T2G and Strokes Gained Approach.

Alright, let’s get to the picks!

Staples

My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.

Dustin Johnson – $12,500

What really has to be said about Dustin Johnson? He struggled last week at The PLAYERS and still finished T12. He was knocking off the rust at the Wells Fargo, and still game T2. He is head and shoulders above the rest of the field right now, and there is no reason to fade DJ this week. There are plenty of options lower on the DraftKings board to help fill out the rest of your lineup. Do not get cute and try and full fade DJ because of high ownership. Lock him in and enjoy your 100 DK points DJ will put up.

Tony Finau – $9,200

Tony Finau has it all this week. Course history? T12 last year and T10 in 2015. Recent form? Missed the cut last week at The PLAYERS, but before then had two top fives in four weeks. How about his stats? In this field, Finau ranks 3rd in SG-T2G, 9th in SG-App, 5th in driving distance, 4th in Par 4 scoring, 8th in Bob% and 9th in Bogey Avoidance. Shall I go on? He is the complete package and at $9,200 is a great value for the player that Finau is right now. He will be very popular this week, as he has the second most tags on FanShareSports.com, but I am will to put Finau in 40-50% of my lineups this week to create the required separation.

Sung Kang – $7,400

Why not make it two consecutive wins for South Koreans? Even without the Si Woo Kim bump, Sung Kang would have been a fantastic play this week, as he enters the Byron Nelson with second best recent form other than DJ. Kang has quietly recorded four top 11 finishes in his last five events. Obviously, his stellar recent form has lead to some pretty impressive statistics. Kang ranks inside the top 30 for this field in all of the strokes gained stats other than around the green. He scores very well on Par 4s and is a very solid birdie maker. He will be extremely popular this week, but I am willing to go well over weight on him to reap the rewards of another top finish.

J.T. Poston – $7,300

J.T. Poston has been incredibly consistent lately. He has missed one cut in 2017 and has finished inside the top 30 six of his last seven events. Poston owns solid stats across the board, ranking inside the top 30 in this field in strokes gained approach, Par 4 scoring, BoB% and Bogey Avoidance. It is only a matter of time before Poston finds himself in contention on Sunday. His recent form and stats suggest that this could be the week. Poston is a lock for cash games.

Perfect Pivots

Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.

Jason Day – $10,100

It has now been consecutive weeks that Jason Day has found himself in the Perfect Pivots section. Last week, it looked like it was going to work out before his final round 80 put near the bottom of the leaderboard. Day now comes in as the fourth highest priced golfer, barely priced in the $10K range. I cannot remember the last time I saw his price this low, along with his betting odds at 16/1, which seem long for a field of this strength. Day will be under owned once again, as the ownership at the top will drift towards DJ, Garcia and Koepka. If you want to make a pivot at the top, Day has to be the play because no one other than DJ has a better chance to win this tournament.

Patrick Reed – $9,400

Patrick Reed has now flashed solid form in back-to-back events, and I think it is time we can trust that he will pull through for us when we roster him. Saying Reed has struggled this season is an understatement, but we are all well aware of the caliber of golfer Reed is. He is back in his home state of Texas where he has had success in the past. Reed only has 11 tags on FanShareSports.com, and is priced $100 more than the golfer with the second most mentions this week, Tony Finau. People seem to still be waiting for Reed to have a top five finish before they fully believe he is back. I say, be a couple steps ahead of everyone else and play Reed this week, who will be on the final page of the leaderboard on Sunday.

J.J. Spaun – $7,300

J.J. Spaun has been a golfer this season that will just show up out of nowhere and finish inside the top 10. He rarely gets touted in the DFS golf industry, often being very under owned when he pops up on a leaderboard. I think we are in store for another one of those weeks with Spaun. Spaun has a great combination of Bob% and Bogey Avoidnace, to go along with solid ball striking stats, where he ranks 17th in the field. Spaun is priced in the same range as J.T. Poston and Sung Kang, both of whom have garnered a combined 42 tags on FanShareSports.com. Spaun on the other hand only has seven mentions, even though there are no glaring difference between any of the three’s games.

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Automatic Fades

Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.

Brandt Snedeker – $8,400

Brandt Snedeker pulled out of The PLAYERS last week as a precaution with a lingering hand injury. If his injury was serious enough to pull out of one of the biggest events on the calendar, then there is no way in hell I am going to risk rostering him at the Byron Nelson. His price is reasonable for the caliber of golfer Sneds is, but having him potentially play a few holes and withdraw is a scary thought. I will wait a week or two to see if his injury is past him to start rostering Snedeker again.

Seung-Yul Noh – $7,600

The South Koreans are the talk of the industry right now. Si Woo Kim just pulled off a huge win at The PLAYERS, now Sung Kang and Byeong-Hun An are creating some buzz entering the Byron Nelson. Seung-Yul Noh on the other hand is someone I will not be investing in this week, even though he has the South Korean narrative working in his favor. Noh is way overpriced at $7,600, even with two very nice results entering this event. Noh’s best finish in this tournament in the past five seasons was a T69 in 2012. I will be going elsewhere for my South Korean love.

So, you got burned?

Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.

Jordan Spieth – $10,800

Were you one of the many that thought Jordan Spieth was due to break out at The PLAYERS? Yeah, that didn’t go according to plan. Spieth was the highest golfer last week to miss the cut while being one of the highest owned on DraftKings. This week, Spieth is priced at a very reasonable $10,800 and someone you want to jump back in on while other DFSers are still sour. The conditions last week at TPC Sawgrass can allow you to toss his result out the window. Spieth fits TPC Fours Seasons perfectly, where his elite strokes gained approach and Par 4 scoring average will set him up for contention. Spieth will not miss back-to-back cuts, so feel safe rostering him in all formats.

Marc Leishman – $7,800

Marc Leishman was a popular value play last week at The PLAYERS, as he has shown solid recent form and won the Arnold Palmer Invitational not too long ago. Leishman was trunk slamming on Friday, letting a lot of DFSers with holes in their lineups on the weekend. Therefore, you guessed it, jump back on! Leishman has had success at this event in the past, recording two top three finishes in the last five years. I also have to mention he has missed the cut at this event in the last two seasons. However, I think this is a great bounce back spot for Leish, as his stats, recent form and course history will make him a fantastic low ownership play in GPPs. Leishman only has nine tags on FanShareSports this week, and is surrounded by much more popular players.

“The Price is Wrong, Bob!”

The pricing on these golfers doesn’t seem right.

Sergio Garcia – $11,000

There is no doubt Sergio has one of the best pedigrees in this field. He is still fresh off of The Masters victory, and is also the defending champion of this event. However, it is so rare to see Sergio priced as the second highest golfer, especially with Jordan Spieth and Jason Day in the field. That $11K price tag is a scary number and will certainly keep Garcia’s ownership down. I just cannot see Garcia both defending his title, and winning an event this soon after The Masters.

Smylie Kaufman  – $7,100

The general public seems to be back in on Smylie Kaufman after he has shown some solid recent form in his last two tournaments. Smylie has a 5th and a 12th in his last two events and is now a 50/1 favorite to win the Byron Nelson. With betting odds in that range, it seems like he should be priced in the high $7K tier. I do not recommend Kaufman in cash, but he makes for a great GPP play.

Thanks for reading The AT&T Byron Nelson preview! You can follow me on Twitter @EPattersonFS for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.

Good luck this week everybody and enjoy the best week in golf!