by Brett Dadian | May 15, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, MLB |
A small 7 game slate today, and we are left with Brandon McCarthy ($9,100) as our top pitcher. He gets to pitch in AT&T Park tonight and gets a weak Giants team. Now tied for last place in wRC+ and wOBA. San Francisco is not a good team, they play in a huge ballpark, and nobody outside Posey is actually good at hitting. I would expect McCarthy to be chalk, but I don’t mind him.
Today’s Projections | 2017 Game Logs | Player Scoring Calendar
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Jesse Chavez has put together 3 good starts in his last 4. He faces a White Sox team strikes out at 21.8%. They are near the bottom in every major hitting stat. Not a ton of confidence in his talent as a pitcher, but on this slate, he is our second option. A K% of almost 21%, Chavez is in a solid spot and in a good ballpark.
First stack we are going to look at is the Toronto Blue Jays facing Bartolo Colon. Colon has been awful this season, giving up 19 earned runs in just his last 3 starts. .375 wOBA to lefties and .379 wOBA to righties, and has been significantly worse on the road. He does not miss very many bats, and the ballpark can play quite small. Top of the order would be my preferred stack.
Mike Pelfrey is a trash can. 6Ks through 4 starts for Pelfrey is not good. On the Angels side Trout, Calhoun, and Pujols are all in play. Pelfrey hasn’t surrendered many long balls this season, but the Angels should be able to tag him early and get to the bullpen. Pelfrey owns a .402 wOBA vs. righties, making Trout an even better one off.
by Brett Dadian | May 13, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, MLB |
We have a 10 game morning/afternoon slate, and the pitching is beyond awful. I’m looking to Luis Severino ($9,100) at home vs. the Astros. The Astros is not a good matchup, but there is something to be said about K upside here. Severino has a K% of 29.2. He has a filthy breaking ball, and has mixed in a solid changeup this season. This is a good spot to look for some strikeouts. If you want to pay up for deGrom ($11,000), he is not a bad option.
Today’s Projections | 2017 Game Logs | Player Scoring Calendar
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Drew Pomeranz is my next option, and honestly, he sucked last time out. But, he gets another strikeout heavy team in the Rays, and I think Pomeranz has got it in him. He is not efficient, but he loves the strikeout. K% of 26.7%, Pomeranz a strikeout pitcher gets the Rays who strikeout 26.1% of the time. This is a pure GPP play, with double digit strikeout upside.
The Yankees are pretty good at hitting baseballs. Top 5 in a ton of offensive categories, and Mike Fiers is awful vs. righties. Small Yankees stadium plays smaller with the power of Holiday and Judge. Fiers is not good and if they get to the blow out crew in the bullpen it could get ugly.
Another bad pitcher on this slate is Chris Young. He struggles vs. both sides of the plate, so everyone is in play here. I will be looking to the long ball power of Machado, Trumbo, Jones, and Seth Smith. Chris Young is really bad, but Kansas City is not the best park to hit in. This stack will most likely be very chalky, so get creative with it.
by Brett Dadian | May 12, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, MLB |
9 game main slate today and, Chris Tillman ($9,900) gets to face the Royals, and whoever faces the Royals gets the best matchup on the slate. Royals are not good, they strike out, they don’t hit for power, and don’t hit for average. I will continue to ride the train until there’s no more tracks. This is Tillman’s second start of the year, and the only way I won’t play him is if they announce some kind of pitch count at 80 or so, which they haven’t.
Today’s Projections | 2017 Game Logs | Player Scoring Calendar
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Trevor Cahill has been good this year, people expect him to regress, but it shouldn’t come here. The White Sox are a bad offense, ranking in the bottom 6 in wRC+, wOBA, and ISO. They also strikeout over 21% of the time. Cahill has an impressive 11.21 K/9 this year, and has kept the ball in the yard well this season. Not in love with Cahill at $9,300, but a weak pitching slate has me targeting him.
Trevor Williams takes on the D-Backs in Chase Field today. This guys is a bullpen arm, but since Jameson Taillon hit the DL, he is forced into the rotation. He has been REALLY bad to righties and not as bad to lefties. Neither good, with a .431 wOBA to righties and .386 to lefties. He has given up 8 bombs in 27.1 innings in the MLB. He gets to pitch in one of the worst ballparks. There’s little chance he goes out there and puts on a good performance vs. these D-Backs.
Dylan Covey pitching for the White Sox today, is flat out bad. The Padres are not great, but if you want a cheap stack, this is the way to go. Covey is allowing a .536 wOBA to righties and .342 to lefties. If the Padres had any idea what they are doing they would bat Renfroe 5th instead of 8th, but we will see when the lineup comes out. My favorite plays on this team are Myers, Margot, Solarte, Hedges and Renfroe. Schimpf is always a solid GPP target too, because of his HR or bust swing.
by Brett Dadian | May 12, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, MLB |
A full 15 game slate today with Kershaw in Coors, and not many other top pitching options. Cueto is fine in a revenge game vs. the Reds, but we will look to Lance McCullers Jr. A filthy breaking ball McCullers had had a nice start to the season so far. A 28.9K% is really interesting, because I don’t think many pitchers can match his K upside. This is not a good matchup, so in cash games Rick Porcello might be your guy. The downside to Porcello is the Rays can swing the bats well. Both of the pitchers have good strikeout upside, but are in some rough matchups.
Today’s Projections | 2017 Game Logs | Player Scoring Calendar
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Patrick Corbin is another strikeout upside pitcher in a bad ballpark. Ray has had trouble with command at times, but in this matchup vs. the Pirates, we got to remember that this team isn’t very good. 83 wRC+ is very bad, and the best hitters they will throw at Ray from the right side is McCutchen and Jordy Mercer. If you want to pay up for some Coors Field bats, you can look at Jhoulys Chacin as a flier. The White Sox aren’t great vs. Righties (NEVER GO ALL IN ON CHACIN).
Tyler Glasnow has to pitch in Chase Field today. Eventually he will throw some strikes, and when he does, they will get lit up. Glasnow is still a prospect, but for the time being, I’ll be stacking against him. He sports a walk rate if 6.33 per 9 innings, and .415 wOBA to Lefties and .351 wOBA to Righties. This guys is not good, and the ballpark won’t help him out this time. Top of the order for the D-Backs.
Tyler Chatwood in Coors vs. a good Dodger lineup is a nice spot for the left handed heavy Dodgers. Most of these dodgers hitters feast on Right handed starters, this includes Justin Turner’s reverse splits. Seager is not off to a good start, so that is one way to be different in the Dodgers stack. I think Chatwood is actually a pretty good pitcher, but pitching in Coors as we know is never an easy task.
by Brett Dadian | May 11, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, MLB |
Michael Pineda ($9,300) has been very good at home this season, posting 40.1, 23.6, and 28.4 points. He gets to face an Astros team that is pretty good. We are hoping for the K upside Pineda brings to the table in the matchup. This is not a very good spot for Pineda, but there are not many options on today’s gross 9 game slate. I expect Fulmer ($10,500) to be the chalk here vs. the Angels in Anaheim. He is in a solid spot, but the Angels don’t strike out a ton.
Today’s Projections | 2017 Game Logs | Player Scoring Calendar
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At the bottom there are 2 guys I like. One is Bronson Arroyo. I know, I would like to not roster him either, but lets face it, the Giants are not good. Bronson is not good himself, but he has strung together a few good starts this season vs. the Giants and the Cubs. The other guy is Derek Holland. He gets to face a Twins team that does have some strikeouts in them. They are middle of the pack in about everything hitting wise. The price point on Holland ($5,200) is very intriguing, and that is the only reason he is in play.
The Yankees are my number one play one the board today. There is not much to be said, this Yankees offense is really good. They get to face a lefty in Dallas Keuchel, who gave up a couple bombs in his last outing. I think we will see a few more here in a small ballpark. Judge is a monster. The guy can mash baseballs, alongside Castro and Matt Holliday. The lefties aren’t out of the picture but i definitely prefer the right handed bats here.
In Coors Field we have a matchup in Hyun-Jin Ryu vs. Tyler Anderson. A pair of southpaws toe the rubber, and I like the matchup for the Rockies more. Remember, both sides are clearly in play, I just side with the Rockies. Arenado Story and Reynolds get the platoon match, while Blackmon is also a solid option. Ryu has given up 3 bombs to the Rockies in his start at home, and no he has to deal with Coors.
by EPattersonFS | May 9, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! I doubt anyone profited from the Brian Harman win at the Wells Fargo Championship, so let’s quickly move on to The PLAYERS!!!
The season’s unofficial 5th Major is upon us. The world’s best golfers will take on the famous TPC Sawgrass in hopes of taking home huge first place prize, at just under $2 Million. TPC Sawgrass has been the host of this event since 1982, and the water that surrounds the iconic 17th green has swallowed thousands of golf balls over the years. TPC Sawgrass is designed by Pete Dye, who is known for his strategic layouts that take the drivers out of a lot of golfers hands. However, The PLAYERS has been won by all sorts of different golfers in it’s history, so you cannot focus on one style of play to succeed at this event.
TPC Sawgrass is a 7,215 yard Par 72 course that has reachable Par 5s and dangerous Par 3s. The 12th hole has been talked about a lot this season, as it has been redesigned to a drivable, 300 yard Par 4 that offers golfers the ultimate risk reward. As with many Pete Dye designs, strong approach games will be crucial if golfers expect to contend this week. For stats, I will be keying in on Strokes Gained Approach, Ball Striking, Good Drive %, Birdie or Better % and Scrambling.
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
 Rory McIlroy – $11,200
Cop out – you cannot go wrong at the top. The golfers priced in the +$10K range are priced there for a reason and making a case for or against one of the is a pointless argument. But, the reason I am going with Rory as my favorite play at the top is because he is priced $800 less than DJ and if I were going to pick one golfer to win this week it would be McIlroy. I will take the savings he offers and my gut feeling that he will win and gladly plug Rory into my cash lineup. He has yet to make his splash in the 2017 season. What better time than the PLAYERS.
Rickie Fowler – $9,300
It is all or nothing for Rickie Fowler at TPC Sawgrass. Literally. In his past five trips to this event, he has missed the cut three times, came 2nd in 2012 and won it in 2015. Besides Rory and DJ, Rickie has the next best recent form entering The PLAYERS. He already has a key win under his belt this season at the Honda Classic, and had a strong showing at the Masters even with a disappointing Sunday. Fowler has all facets of his game dialed in, especially his approach game, which ranks 4th in the field entering this event. Even though his course history has been boom or bust, I am rostering Fowler in cash and will roster him on 30%-40% of my lineups.
Adam Scott – $8,400
Adam Scott should not be $8,400 and he should not, not, be put into your cash game lineup. Scott is an elite talent that is being priced below golfers who have shown very inconsistent games as of late. Scott won The PLAYERS all the way back in 2004 and hasn’t missed a cut in his last five tries. We are all well aware of Scott’s ball striking ability that can put him in contention week after week. It is just a matter of if his putter will show up or not. He did gain strokes on the field putting last week at the Wells Fargo, so that is definitely a good sign. Scott is a lock for my cash lineup and at his salary, will be easy to fit into the majority of my lineups. I am putting my name on it – Scott and McIlroy will be the last pairing to tee off on Sunday.
Martin Kaymer – $7,300
Martin Kaymer will be the most popular player this week and he is still a staple for me in cash and GPP lineups. Kaymer is currently the most tagged golfer on FanShareSports.com, as he is the most mis-priced golfer on the slate. Kaymer hasn’t missed a cut in what seems like forever (actually was the 2016 Valspar) and also has never missed a cut at TPC Sawgrass. He won this tournament in 2014, adding to the pile of good Kaymer narratives this week. He is a lock for me in cash, and GPP, but there are plenty of other solid pivots in this price range if you are looking to create leverage.
Adam Hadwin- $6,800
It is time for me to jump back on Adam Hadwin, after falling out of love with him his last couple of events. He finally took a few weeks off of golf to spend time with his new wife, who he has been avoiding during the crazy schedule he has been playing. I expect Hadwin to come into The PLAYERS feeling refreshed and recharged after burning out at the Valero Texas Open. He is having an incredible season and should no way in hell be priced at $6,800.
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Jason Day – $10,000
The defending champ is a Perfect Pivot? It sure looks like it. According to FanShareSports.com, Day is the 29th most tagged golfer so far this week and is the only golfer above $9K with single digit tags. In a week where there will be a ton of fresh faces to DFS golf due to the increase in contest sizes, Day makes for a fantastic GPP play. People will look at his recent form, combined with the recent form of golfers around him and steer clear. If you are building multiple lineups this week and multi entering large GPP contests, grab a good chunk of Day. I expect his ownership to fall in the 10% range, so it won’t be hard to be overweight on him.
Pat Perez – $8,100
Pat Perez has been treating loyal DFS followers very well lately. He has been a popular pick so far this season and consistently seems to produce when required. He came T2 last week at the Wells Fargo, now just a week later, has fallen off people’s radar. Perez only has four tags this week, the same amount as David Lingmeth. There are few golfers in the field who have been playing as well as Perez this year. At $8,100, which is a reasonable price, and expected low ownership, Perez makes for a perfect pivot off of the chalky $8K golfers like Adam Scott and Paul Casey.
Tyrrell Hatton – $7,600
It wasn’t too long ago when Tyrrell Hatton had all of our attention when he seemingly couldn’t finish outside of the top 5. Now, he is a mere afterthought. As DFSers, we have serious ADD. Hatton is being overshadowed by golfers like Kevin Kisner, Matt Kuchar and Francesco Molinari, all priced slightly ahead of Hatton. He only has six tags on FanShareSports, one of which was the recommendation to sit him. Hatton makes for a sneaky GPP play as a golfer who has shown form recently and will have the ability to play well at TPC Sawgrass. He ranks 10th in the field in strokes gained approach, the highest rated stat in my model.
The PLAYERS Championship Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
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Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of
Henrik Stenson – $8,800
Henrik Stenson made me look like an idiot over and over earlier this year, as I kept putting him in my “So, you got burned?” section and he kept missing the cut. Well now he an Automatic Fade for me, and I will be super tilted if he makes me look dumb one more time. Stenson’s form has been non-existent this year ever since his run in with the dirty water in Mexico. He enters The PLAYERS with three straight missed cuts and even though he is a previous winner of this event, there is no way he will find a way onto my rosters this week.
Billy Horschel – $7,400
The Florida native will not be on my radar this week. He is out of form and over priced, and I find myself moving down to the much better plays priced at $7,300. Horschel has missed the cut in back-to-back events and only has three top 25 finishes in 10 events in 2017. He ranks 110th in the field in Bob% and 126th in strokes gained around the green. If Billy isn’t knocking his approach shots to inside 15 feet consistently, he will be trunk slamming on Friday.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Kevin Kisner – $7,700
We got the perfect storm brewing for Kevin Kisner’s suppressed ownership. Everyone saw the shot he made at Zurich Classic to get his team into the playoff. And everyone loaded up on him last week at the Wells Fargo to have him miss the cut, crushing cash game lineups along the way. Now in a loaded field, Kisner will get overlooked with all of the other options on the board. He also falls in a dead zone in the pricing because lineup construction this week will have most people glossing over the high $7K range. Kisner lost in a playoff to Fowler in 2015, so the winning upside definitely is there.
William McGirt – $7,300
Another very popular play at the Wells Fargo was William McGirt, and he did exactly what is required to find yourself in the “So, you got burned?” section the following week – miss the cut. Dirt McGirt does not have a single tag on FanShareSports.com this week, meaning his ownership is going to be at an all time low. In two of his three starts before the missed cut last week, McGirt had a T3, T9 finish, both coming on Pete Dye designed courses. He also performed well at The Masters. The form is there and his game should suit a more accuracy based course. He also makes for a great pivot off of super chalk Martin Kaymer.
“The Price is Wrong, Bob!”
The pricing on these golfers doesn’t seem right.
Patrick Cantlay – $7,700
In a week where there are endless value options and lineups created with money left on the table look amazing, there are still golfers whose price is way too high. Patrick Cantlay is one of those this week. Cantlay has burst back onto the season this season in a big way, but there is no way in hell he is going to return value in his first trip to TPC Sawgrass as a pro. Cantlay came to play at the RBC Heritage and Valspar Championship, and news flash, The PLAYERS is a much tougher beast than those events. Kisner, Dufner, Kuchar and Louis are all way better plays than Cantlay in this price range.
Branden Grace – $6,800
As I just mentioned, there are so many value plays this week and the $6,800 range is loaded with them. Branden Grace does not deserve to be priced down in this range, and if you flipped him with Cantlay, no one would think twice. Grace is entering this event with back-to-back top 11 finishes and a respectable T27 at The Masters. Grace has had success on Pete Dye designed courses in the past, which makes sense as he is more of a plotter than a bomber. He has the same betting odds as Russell Henley, who is priced $1,400 more. Other than Hadwin, Grace is my favourite of the mis-priced golfers in the $6K range.
Thanks for reading The PLAYERS preview! You can follow me on Twitter for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody and enjoy the best week in golf!
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