by Brett Dadian | May 9, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, MLB |
We have a 9 game main slate today with some interesting spots for some of these pitchers. Chris Archer ($10,800) tops my list because he draws probably the best matchup on today’s slate in the Kansas City Royal. This Royals team is not good at all, lowest wRC+ in the MLB, low wOBA and ISO, this team doesn’t have any upside at all. Archer has had back to back starts with 20+ fantasy points without a win. With a 25.7K%, strikeout upside from the Royals, and a good park to pitch in, starting out with Chris Archer is the right move.
Today’s Projections | 2017 Game Logs | Player Scoring Calendar
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Danny Salazar ($9,700) draws a favorable matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays. Assuming Donaldson and Tulo are still out , there are few bats that scare me in this lineup (See Yesterday’s article). Salazar can rack up the K’s with the best of them, but struggles to get deep into ball games. He is a GPP only pitcher today, but Lance Lynn or Kenta Maeda should be considered for cash games. Lynn ($8,400) and Maeda ($9,200) both draw favorable matchups in pitchers parks.
I think Matt Boyd is a underrated pitcher, but this spot in Arizona is not good for him. The D-Backs can run a right handed heavy lineup for Boyd and his .322 wOBA vs Right handed hitters into a bad spot. And in a small sample size this season, Boyd has been far worse on the road. Pollock, Owings, Goldy, Tomas, Drury and whoever catches will all be in play. Also, we should see lower ownership on Jake Lamb assuming he starts, and he is a good way to differentiate your -Backs stacks.
Kyle Kendricks isn’t very good and neither is Chase Anderson. This sets up a hitter friendly matchup in Miller Park, where we should look to both sides to jump on these starters. Kendricks will be in this Boston rotation until Price comes back, and there will be opportunities to stack against him. Since he has only one start this year, we will look to his career number to find out where he struggles. He has a .327 wOBA to righties not good and .362 wOBA to lefties even worse. He is not going to miss many bats which will help the strike out happy Brew Crew. Everyone is in play, with Thames and Shaw being my favorite one offs.
by Brad Messersmith | May 9, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This week you will find that Brian Harman is our first standout with roughly 86:1 odds to win on average across multiple sites, and a salary that is only $300 above minimum price. Some of this may have something to do with his recent win on an unbelievable birdie putt on the eighteenth hole last week, but he also makes an interesting GPP play as a golfer who is coming in with his A-game. The other very interesting standout that I think makes a phenomenal GPP play is Ross Fisher, who enters this week with four straight made cuts internationally and three top tens in that same stretch. He’s definitely playing some of his best golf coming into this tournament and could make a fantastic GPP option with the upside he’s shown.
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Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. This week we have a few obvious standouts in the initial round of ownership projections, the first and most obvious of which is Henrik Stenson. Despite the low ownership I’m going to choose to fade Stenson because of how severely poor he’s been playing. Ordinarily I’d take this as an opportunity to hop on a golfer with low ownership and the skill to show some upside but I don’t really feel that is the situation with Stenson at this point. Until I see something more out of Stenson I will be staying away. The other golfer who I think will be low owned compared to the others in his salary range is Patrick Reed who after missing three straight cuts found his way into the top 15 last week. Having shown a glimmer of upside, Patrick Reed will definitely make his way into my GPP lineups in hopes that his course history will serve to keep his ownership deflated as well.
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Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. Last week’s OWGR comparison looked to be very fruitful as Alexander Noren went into Sunday near the top of the leaderboard, however his final round 77 may have hurt a bit. That being said, guess who is right back at it this week? Most people who rostered Noren will choose to stay away after a rotten Sunday afternoon like that, but I am going to go right back to the well here. Noren is the 12th ranked golfer in the world for a reason, and even though he didn’t last week, if Noren can put together four straight solid rounds he has the talent to win on a big stage like this. The other standout I feel is worth mentioning is Jon Rahm, who on paper looks to be overpriced based on his OWGR, but I say you can toss this type of information right out the window when it comes to Jon Rahm. Easily the most talented rookie on tour that we’ve seen in some time, Rahm is in a class of his own at this point and at this rate will find his way into the top ten in the OWGR very quickly.
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The PLAYERS Championship Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
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Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
by RickRunGood | May 8, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Defending Champ, Jason Day, will head back to Ponte Vedra Beach, FL to defend his title. This week’s Research Spreadsheet includes:
*NEW* Key Stats – Breakdown and ranking of “Key Stats” for the this tournament, with new scoring system.
Past Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, broken down by year (since 1986)
Historic Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, by totals (since inception – min three appearances)
Recent Performance- Full stats for the L5 years at this tournament and L10 weeks on TOUR.
Full Box Scores –Â All final performance stats for years 2016, 2015 and 2014.
Betting Odds –Â Odds for each player to win and top 10
DraftKings SalariesÂ
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, get started below:
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by Brett Dadian | May 8, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, MLB |
Carlos Carrasco gets to face a bad Toronto Blue Jays team that strikes out at 22.8% of the time. Terrible wRC+, team wOBA, and nobody in this lineup is that scary. Sure Morales or Bautista could go yard, but the best hitter in their lineup is Kevin Pillar. 8.49 K/9 is a bit low but this Blue Jays team is nothing special. Carrasco had a fever his last start and only threw 91 pitches, so he should be fresh to go deep in this one.
Today’s Projections | 2017 Game Logs | Player Scoring Calendar
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Drew Pomeranz gets a strikeout heavy Brewers team today. Striking out at striking out at 25.3%, this team is boom or bust. Similar to Pomeranz with an 11.33 K/9, but struggles to keep the ball in the yard at times. There are other options in this price range like Ivan Nova and Charlie Morton. Nova doesn’t have a good K% but he will go deep into games. Morton does have the strikeout upside, but the Braves don’t strike out that much.
Mike Pelfrey has 4 strikeouts this year in 14.1 innings pitched. He doesn’t miss bats at all, and this Twins team has some upside. Sano, Dozier (scheduled to start after the ankle injury), Rosario and others are in a good spot today. They should go fairly low owned today, and with Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco on the
slate, these guys are affordable. The White Sox on the other side of the diamond are also in play too, facing a lefty.
Yankees in Cincinnati is yet another good spot for both teams. I’ll lean to the Yankees in this one, with Judge and Castro getting yesterday off, and Sanchez only pinch hitting in the 18 inning game in Wrigley. The Yankees get to face Tim Adleman, who has been decent this year, but the Yankees .357 wOBA vs. righties is MLB’s best. It is the usual bats in Judge, Sanchez, Castro and Holiday.
by Brett Dadian | May 7, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, MLB |
Today’s slate is awful. Cubs in Coors and no cheap pitching. With that being said Jacob deGrom is the top option, facing the struggling San Francisco Giants. The are so bad, dead last in  team wOBA, second to last in wRC+. Jacob deGrom is by far the most talented pitcher on this slate, and has the highest K%. He is in a solid spot to get a win and will provide enough upside with his 31.6% K%.
Today’s Projections | 2017 Game Logs | Player Scoring Calendar
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Adam Conley has had 3 good starts this year posting 22.9, 16.7 and 17.2 points. Also, he has had 3 bad starts with less than 8 points. If Fowler and Piscotty are both unable to go tonight, consider Conley for GPPs. This Cards offense is OK at best, and without their top 2 hitters, I will ride without a boom or bust candidate in Conley.
The Yankees get to face Rookie Davis in Great American Ball Park tonight. Great matchup in great hitter ballpark. Rookie struggles on both sides of the plate with a .472 wOBA vs L and .412 vs R handed hitters. Bronx Bomber are red hot and are a great stack tonight with Judge a and Castro as my favorite one offs.
Kevin Gausman has had troubles with right handers throughout his career, and draws a rough matchup tonight in Camden Yards versus the Nationals. Also, Gausman is struggling to throw strikes with a 5.23 BB/9 this season. Ryan Zimmerman is on a crazy streak of double digit fantasy points since April 23rd. Hopefully Harper flies under the radar with that DTD tag next to his name.
by Brett Dadian | May 6, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, MLB |
It is a Sale day, and when Chris Sale is on the slate, you play Chris Sale. 12.42 K/9 is amazing, he did give us a scare last start when he threw the ball behind Machado, but he got it done. He is averaging a ridiculous 33.6 points per game. The matchup is not the best for Sale, but Chris Sale is on another level and is borderline matchup proof. Sale should be the highest owned pitcher in GPPs, so you can always consider fading him, but I will not be.
Today’s Projections | 2017 Game Logs | Player Scoring Calendar
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Matt Shoemaker starting against the Astros tonight makes for a solid play. Shoemaker has only been rocked one time this year, and has been fairly safe this season. A 8.44 K/9 is solid but his walks have been a concern. If he can control the walks and keep the ball in the yard he should be looking at another 20+ point performance versus the Astros.
Coors Field: Taijuan Walker is not great versus lefties or righties and neither is Tyler Chatwood isn’t great either. I will slightly lean to whichever side I think is lower owned, and I think it is the Rockies. Blackmon is a must play in cash games.
The Mets have been red hot of late, tearing up the Braves and the Marlins. Here in City Field, the Mets will see Jose Urena, a struggling “prospect” for a spot start. Urena has been solid out of the bullpen this season, he shouldn’t last too long before they get to the bullpen. Urena has been good against lefties this year, but awful in his career. Bruce and Conforto are my favorite plays. I expect the Mets to have another solid performance.
The Cubs might not be the chalk in today’s afternoon slate with Coors Field in play, so I like this spot versus Luis Severino. Despite a good start to the season everyone is in play, as we have seen Severino get beat with long ball and lose control in past starts. Wrigley Field is a big ballpark, so hopefully the wind blows out to center field. The top of the order is in play, and Rizzo or Bryant makes for good one off.
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