by Brett Dadian | May 5, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, MLB |
So for today’s 12 game main slate, we will be looking to pay down for pitchers to get the bats in the D-Backs vs. Rockies game. At $8,400, Dylan Bundy is in a great spot facing the White Sox. The White Sox have a team wOBA of .296 (6th worst in the MLB) and he will have the platoon advantage against Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier and Avisail Garcia. We haven’t seen Bundy’s K/9 at what is was last year, but the White Sox do hold a very high 22.4K% this season. Camden Yards isn’t a place I like to take pitchers in, but spending down for SP1 is the play on today’s slate.
Today’s Projections | 2017 Game Logs | Player Scoring Calendar
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J.C. Ramirez has struck out 23 batters in his last 17 innings, and at $6,800, this has me interested. The Astros is not a very good matchup, but realistically, we need about 16 points from Ramirez. With K upside you can do far worse the J.C. Ramirez. Since it is slim pickings down at the bottom I’ll give another option in Clayton Richard. The Dodgers aren’t very good versus southpaws. Seager, Gonzalez, Toles, Pederson and Bellinger are all left handed bats, and Grandal has to hit right handed. The Dodgers will most likely throw some right handers like Kike Hernandez, Scott van Slyke and Franklin Gutierrez that all hit lefties well, but just aren’t that good. Richard is hard to stomach rostering, but we have to make some sacrifices to get Coors bats in our lineups today.
What to do with the D-Backs in Colorado. A pair of southpaw going in Robbie Ray vs. Tyler Anderson, so we will prefer the right handed bats. Play Paul Goldschmidt, he is a lefty masher. He should be the highest owned first basemen so there is a game theory move onto Mark Reynolds, but Goldy is the top option on the board. Pollock, Tomas, Owings, Drury and whoever catches for the D-Backs (hopefully Jeff Mathis) are top options. Get creative when stacking Coors. Maybe start the stack from the 8 spot, even though it isn’t the best way to correlate your players, it is important to differentiate your lineups. The usual suspects from Colorado: Blackmon, LeMahieu, Arenado, Desmond, Reynolds and Story are in the best spots.
The O’s are off to a slow start with Machado Trumbo and Davis all with sub .250 batting averages, but that could turn around here. Covey generates very few swings and missing sporting a 3.34 K/9 this season. The top of the lineup has some options if you want Seth Smith who will likely lead off or leave Trumbo off, or run the 5 man stack. The great thing about Dylan Covey is the White Sox are letting him get pounded out there. He’s thrown at least 86 pitches in his 4 starts, and has had a game giving up 3 HRs and 8 ERs and another game with 2 HRs and 6 ERs. This stack is cheap enough to afford some of the D-Backs and Rockies one offs.
by Brett Dadian | May 4, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, MLB |
We have a few solid top options to chose from today, but I think Dallas Keuchel tops the list. The Angels don’t strike out a ton as a team, but Mike Trout could be out for this game. This offense is already bad with Trout in the lineup, generating 94 wRC+, .296 team wOBA, and a low ISO number. Keuchel should have similar success to what he has already done to them, and everyone else he has faced this season. Dallas is my top cash option and good for tournaments too. Other option at the top would be Stephen Strasburg, if you want to chase the Phillies 23.6 K% in tournaments.
Today’s Projections | 2017 Game Logs | Player Scoring Calendar
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Chris Archer is facing a Blue Jays team that has struggled in the early part of the season, and is without Josh Donaldson. Archer’s has seen him with 8.47 K/9 and only .69 HR/9. The Jays are a struggling offense with a 22.6K%. Also they have the 5th worst wOBA at .293, and shouldn’t beat Archer with the long ball in Tropicana Field. Now, the other pitcher on the bump is Francisco Liriano, a true boom or bust option. Liriano has 2 starts versus the Rays this year with -11.5 and 20.5 points in them. He should be considered only for the strikeout upside the Rays present in the this matchup.
I won’t suggest to play Coors field, because they are always in play and should always be considered. Tom Koehler and Rafael Montero face off in City Field, where both sides are in play, but I like the Mets more. Koehler has given up a bomb in every game this year, 7 total. As a Marlins fan myself, I have watched this dude get shelled way too much. A 2.52 HR/9 is not very good, and I expect all lefties to get a shot to take Koehler deep. In 9 innings versus lefties this year (I know a small sample size) hitters have a .543 wOBA and 5 HRs. Mets 1-6 are in play,with Conforto or Bruce as my favorite one offs.
The Padres find themselves in a sneak spot vs. Kenta Maeda and the Dodgers. Maeda has struggled on the road vs. lefties .533 wOBA. This Padres team should fly under the radar and should be considered, if Kenta Maeda becomes chalk. Schimpf, Solarte Spangenberg are the left handed bats to look and, with Meyers and Margot to finish out the stack. This stack is cheap enough to get some Coors bats in or pair a couple 10K+ pitchers together.
by Brett Dadian | May 4, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, MLB |
The obvious play on this weak pitching slate is Max Scherzer ($12,600), at home versus the D-Backs. Scherzer’s one downfall this year came against the Mets, who ran out a left handed heavy lineup, where they tagged him up for 5 ER. The Diamondbacks however will have 3 left handed hitters at most in Jake Lamb, David Peralta (who is DTD with sickness) and Chris Herrmann. Max should be able to rack up some K’s here as well, with the D-Backs K% at 23.3%. Scherzer will probably be the highest owned pitcher in the early slate, so you could pivot to Salazar in GPPs, who holds a higher K/9, but fading Max Scherzer is never recommended.
Today’s Projections | 2017 Game Logs | Player Scoring Calendar
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Now we will look at a pitcher facing a bad team, in a pitchers ballpark, and it is Derek Holland. Now, Holland isn’t a strikeout guy (K/9 7.14), but he has been very solid this season posting more than 14 points in four out of his five starts. The Royals hold MLB’s worst wRC+ at 66, and 4th worst ISO at .126. Pairing that with Holland’s .93 HR/9 and 7.9% HR/FB, it is a safe bet he will keep the ball in the yard. At $7,700, Holland is cheap enough to pair with any other pitcher.
The Nationals are off to a crazy hot start in any stat you can look at. What is more impressive is they are only striking out at 19.4% of the time. The Nats take on Braden Shipley, who just got recalled, and thrown into an awful matchup. The top of the lineup should look something like Turner, Werth, Harper, Zimmerman, Murphy, who should be able to get to Shipley quick. Harper or Murphy would be my preferred one offs if you don’t stack.
A more sneaky stack is the Seattle Mariners. They should be fairly low owned on the late slate with BOS and BAL on the slate and 1-5 this lineup is pretty good. Seagura, Gamel, Cano, Cruz, Seager are the guys I’m looking at. Cruz and Seagura don’t get the platoon advantage but Alex Meyer isn’t very good and the Mariners will jump on him quick. In his one start vs TOR this season it took him 75 pitches to go 3.2 innings. Fire up the M’s tomorrow.
by Brad Messersmith | May 3, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This week we find a few very interesting outliers when it comes to the Vegas Odds. One of the best value plays on the board in my opinian is Harold Varner who has better than 100:1 odds to win this event and finds himself near the minimum price. As a young upcoming golfer with supreme talent he should make a great GPP play this week. The other outlier is Graeme Mcdowel who seems seriously mispriced at only at only $6,500 with roughly 65:1 odds to win this event. While I don’t necessarily love “G-Mac” this week it’s hard to overlook the discount we are getting when rostering him.
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Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. Right off the bat you will notice some very strange monstrosities. The first and probably most obvious one is Dustin Johnson who will be very polarizing this week after withdrawing on the first tee at Augusta. I suspect his ownership will be drastically reduced and after a month off should make a phenomenal GPP play this week. If Dustin Johnson is even close to 90% I suspect he will find himself in contention come Sunday and that is a risk I’m willing to take. After all, it’s very rare we get a chance at the top ranked golfer in the world at under 15% ownership with the possibility of under 10% ownership. The other standout you’ll notice is Patrick Reed who has recently missed his third straight cut. Normally a grinder on tour who rarely misses cuts, Reed has been very cold as we head into major season. I suspect most people will be turned off to the idea of roster Reed after having been burnt which might make this a great time to “Zig” while others are “Zagging.” At some point I suspect Reed will find his game and I want to be early to the party when he does.
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Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. This week marks possibly one of the biggest outliers we’ve ever seen when comparing salary versus the Official World Golf Rankings. Alexander Noren is the 12th ranked golfer in the world(!) and is only $6,600 in salary. What’s not to love about that discount? Well his recent form is not to love, given he hasn’t been playing well, but I’m going to be willing to overlook that fact knowing that Noren has it in his game to take this trophy home.
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Wells Fargo Championship Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
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Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
by EPattersonFS | May 2, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! Welcome back from the mini break we had to enjoy some team golf! The Zurich Classic was definitely a success and I hope that DraftKings can find a way to incorporate the team event into their scoring model for next year.
We are BACK (a popular theme this week) with the Wells Fargo Open, which will be hosted at Eagle Point Golf Club in Wilmington North Carolina. This is the first time a PGA event has been held at this course, so we have no course history to look back at, putting a greater emphasis on recent form and trying to figure out exactly what stats correlate to Eagle Point’s set up.
Here is my understanding of the course from what I have read and heard – I will try and keep it as brief as possible for you. This is basically Augusta National. The relationship seems strong between Augusta and Eagle Point, and Steven Bowditch even used the #AugustaPoint this week to describe the course. Here is a blurb I found from StarNewsOnline.com about the relationship with Augusta.
“Eagle Point overseeded its bermuda fairways with rye grass last fall. Bermuda is a warm weather grass that goes dormant (turns brown) in the late fall and winter. Rye thrives in cold weather, however. Augusta National overseeds with rye to create strong turf that radiates on a high-definition screen.
Eagle Point president Bobby Long told media members last month that the club used Augusta National as a model for creating an aesthetically pleasing course. Long is also a member at Augusta National and Eagle Point hired its former superintendent Marsh Benson as a consultant to refine the course over the last two years.”
I have also heard; the rough will not be too penial, this is a second shot golf course, ball striking will be important, the greens are tricky and undulating and the greens have false fronts and collection areas. So, with that being said, I will be looking at Augusta as a corollary course, focusing heavily on strokes gained approach, around the green, ball striking and birdie or better percentage.
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Dustin Johnson – $13,000
RENT A BUNGALOW DUSTIN! TAKE THE ELEVATOR! The last time we all uttered the name Dustin Johnson, he was somehow tumbling his way down a set of stairs and taking himself out of the Masters. The world number one is set to make his return this week at the Wells Fargo Open after nearly a month off from golf. That is one of the reasons why he is one of my staples this week. Second, he is priced $2,000 above Jon Rahm, who will likely be the highest owned golfer on the slate, cutting into DJ’s ownership. Thirdly, I think there is plenty of value in the $6K range to build strong lineups while paying for Johnson’s huge price tag. I guarantee you that this week will be the lowest owned we see DJ all season long. The injury, the price and Rahm will all play their role in keeping his ownership below 15%. DJ is a heavy favorite to win this week and will make it four straight while everyone is afraid of the best player in the world.
Paul Casey – $9,900
If one of the narratives this week is how similar this course is playing and looks like Augusta National, then Paul Casey is a must play. He has been near the top of the leaderboard the Masters the last few years and every year is one of the best ball strikers on tour. If the correlation reports are correct, then he sets up perfectly for Eagle Point. His recent form is one of the best in the field, with three top 16 finishes in his last four events. He has elite strokes gained approach and around the green stats, two key areas that translate to solid results at Augusta. Casey is a lock for a top 10 and I will be surprised if he isn’t in one of the last two groups come Sunday.
Kevin Kisner – $8,400
Kevin Kisner has been playing outstanding lately. If you watched any of the Zurich Classic, you would have seen the lights out performance he had on Sunday and clutch eagle on the final hole to force a playoff. Kisner also has three 11th or better finishes in his last five events. He ranks fifth in the field in strokes gained OTT+APP and 18th in BoB%. Kisner is on a heater and his near victory last week at the Zurich should fuel his fire even more. At $8,400, he will fit easily into any sort of lineup construction strategy.
Kevin Tway – $7,200
I am going off the board a bit with this one, but Kevin Tway is playing so well right now he has to be mentioned. If you include last week at the Zurich Classic, Tway has back-to-back T3 finishes. He carried his team last week making numerous birdies in the better ball format. He probably would have shot around -6 on both Friday and Sunday if you know, it was a normal event. Even at the Valero Texas Open, his other T3 result, he gained strokes on the field in all areas, with his strokes gained approach game being his best stat. He is a bomber, ranking 6th in this field in driving distance, but if you combine that with his in form approach game, then Tway will easily find himself on the leaderboard once again this Sunday.
Stewart Cink – $6,400
Stewart Cink is the most mis-priced golfer this week. At $6,400, DraftKings is pretty much giving you a free square in cash games. Cink has finished inside of the top 30 in six of his last seven events. His missed cut at the RBC Heritage was a surprise, but that course setup is much different than the one we will see at Eagle Point. Cink is as steady as they come, has incredible stats this week and is priced well below where he should be.
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Phil Mickelson – $10,200
All of the attention at the top this week is going to Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm and Paul Casey. People seem to have forgotten that Phil Mickelson is even in this field, and if we are using the Augusta narrative, we cannot exclude one of the best performers at the Masters. Phil Mickelson is a wizard on the course and can pick apart the little nuances of every course better than anyone. Eagle Point hasn’t been played by many, so advantage Mickelson, who will have a better understanding of this course than most heading into Thursday. You do not have to be perfect off the tee to succeed here, which Phil definitely isn’t. He will use his elite wedge game and ability to read tricky greens to his advantage, and put himself in the mix on Sunday. Mickelson only has eight tags on FanShareSports.com, way less than those priced around him on DraftKings. Mickelson makes for a perfect pivot in GPP contests.
Kevin Na – $7,500
Kevin Na may not be my favorite play on the board this week, but if he is going to be overlooked like FanShareSports suggests he will be, I will certainly go overweight on him. Na has one of the best approach games in this field, and if he misses a green or two, his strong strokes gained around the green numbers will help him out. Na is currently being overshadowed by Emiliano Grillo who has the same price tag as Na, but is drawing much more attention. His betting odds suggest he should be priced higher than $7,600 or golfers like Lucas Glover and Rafa Cabrera Bello are $1,000 over priced. It is reasonable to expect Na to finish inside the top 20 this week with a good chance at a top 10, while everyone is out spending their money elsewhere.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Webb Simpson – $9,700
You want me to pay how much for Webb!?! No chance! Just because Webb Simpson is a member at this course does not warrant a price tag that puts him amongst the elite golfers in this field. Webb is coming off a T11 at the RBC Heritage, but that is a much different style of course than one we will see at Eagle Point. Webb has missed the cut in three of his last seven events, making him a risky play even if he was priced $2,000 cheaper.
Rafa Cabrera Bello – $8,600
RCB was the Spanish darling last season on Tour. He had a fine showing the 2016 match play event and carried it with him all season. In 2017, it has been a different story. He has missed his last three cuts on the PGA Tour and has some of the worst strokes gained stats in the field. Bello has been priced in the mid $7K range as of late as well, so his head scratching price increase is another reason why I cannot play him this week. Rafa will need to show some sort of consistency before I can even considering jumping back on.
So you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Pat Perez – $8,900
It seems like it has been a while since we had the chance to get burned by anyone on DraftKings, but the last time Pat Perez swung the sticks, he did just that. At the RBC Heritage, Perez was a popular pick after his strong showing at The Masters and consistent play prior. Perez did make the cut at the Heritage but shot an 81 on the Saturday to derail his tournament. Now, Perez is flying under the radar at a someone expensive price tag. He only has four tags on FanShareSports.com, which is the 30th most in the field. His ownership is going to be extremely suppressed. It is a perfect time to jump back on Perez who is still playing some of the best golf in his career.
Luke List – $6,900
Luke List is every DFSers kryptonite. He has all the tools required to make him a sexy play week in and week out. Long of the tee, solid approach game and has put himself at the top of leaderboards in recent memory. However, the recent memory most of us have of List is him missing the cut at the Valero Texas Open in dramatic fashion, shooting 68-78 to miss by two shots. List still ranks inside the top 10 in this field in strokes gained OTT+APP and has the best Par 5 BoB% in the field. His length will be an advantage this week, giving him shorter distances in to approach these tricky greens. I like List to bounce back this week when less people are on him than usual. The $6K price range is loaded with value, so it will be difficult to see anyone go over owned in this range.
“The Price is Wrong, Bob!”
The pricing on these golfers doesn’t seem right.
Zac Blair – $7,600
If you are on Twitter and saw some of Zac Blair’s Eagle Point footage, be thankful, because that is all we are getting from him this week. He is one of the most overpriced golfers in the field this week at $7,600 when you compare him to his betting odds of 175/1. He is a $1,000 more expensive than Alex Noren at more than triple the betting odds. Blair is the furthest thing from a value play.
Alex Noren – $6,600
Alex Noren could easily be the most overrated golfer in the world, but at this price, you cannot ignore him. He is the 12th ranked golfer in the world and the number 13 ranked player, Jon Rahm, is $4,400 more expensive. His betting odds do not reflect his price at all, but they do reflect his recent form. He is still getting his feet wet on American soil and the results show. His best finish in a stroke play tournament this season is a T49 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. With that said, you must take advantage of this pricing error on a golfer who collected four worldwide wins in 2016.
Wells Fargo Championship Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
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Thanks for reading my Wells Fargo Open Preview! You can follow me on Twitter for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody and enjoy the best week in golf!
by RickRunGood | May 1, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, MLB |
James Paxton has been lights out for basically 28 of his 32 innings pitched this season. That bad stretch was a five run outburst he allowed to Oakland in just 4.1 IP. He hasn’t allowed a single run outside of that start which has resulted in fantasy outputs of 21.7, 32.2, 38.2 and 34.8 DraftKings points. All the factors are in favor of Paxton today as he faces the dismal Angels offense that ranks 26th in the league in wOBA. Not only that, but this game is being played in Seattle which is one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the league.
Today’s Projections | 2017 Game Logs | Player Scoring Calendar
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If you want another lefty and one who’s way more volatile, consider Matt Moore. He scored a total of four DraftKings points in back-to-back games against Colorado, but book-ended those games with stellar starts against Arizona and the Dodgers for 27.6 and 26.8 DraftKings points. The Dodgers outing was his most recent, raking up eight K’s in seven innings while only allowing two hits. It’s probably no surprise that Moore saw success against LA who ranks 25th in wOBA vs. LHP this season.
I am a big fan of Danny Duffy, but I think he presents an opportunity to stack against today. The White Sox are mostly an anemic offense but have exploded in the last seven days. They own the league’s second best wOBA (.384) while scoring the third most runs in that span (43). The Sox faced Duffy just five days ago and dropped six runs on him in 4.2 IP. When a pitcher faces the same team two starts in a row, I tend to think it’s the offense that has an edge. If the Sox can improve on their output from five days ago, they are in for a big day.
How about basically an identical situation for the Braves? They are the third best offense (surprisingly) in the last seven days and will face Matt Harvey again for the second time in five days. That first outing was, wait for it…six runs in 4.1 IP. How about that?! The Braves have been scoring runs, but haven’t done it with the longball. It’s been a full lineup approach of “next man up” which could benefit some full stacks.
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