by EPattersonFS | Aug 16, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! I hope everyone enjoyed the PGA Championship, built some solid lineups and had a profitable week. Unfortunately, the major season has come and gone…sad, sad times. We are now gifted with the Wyndham Championship, whose field will make you want to take the week off. But don’t! If you have been grinding all season long, these are the fields that can really be taken advantage off. If you were someone betting on the Barracuda or Barbasol, building lineups for the Puerto Rico Open, this is a field for you.
The Wyndham Championship will be held at Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro North Carolina. Sedgefield is a 7,100 yard Par 70, and will typically yield a lot of birdies even though it only has two Par 5s. Sedgefield has played host to this event since 2008, but they changed the greens to Champion Bermuda, same turf as last week’s Quail Hollow, prior to the 2012 event, limiting course history slightly. Due to it’s lack of length, Sedgefield will play as a second shot course. Bombers will have driver taken out of their hands on some holes, bringing the to a more level playing field.
Since second shots will be extremely important this week, SG:Approach is my heaviest weighted stat, followed closely by Birdie or Better %. Winning scores usually end up in the high teen range, so golfers who can stuff the cup with birds will be targets. The bermuda rough can also be very penal, so I will be looking at SG:Off the tee combined with Driving Accuracy, in the hopes guys are staying out of the long stuff giving them more opportunities to attack pins. I will also be looking at Par 4 Scoring Average, Scrambling and SG:Putting on bermuda specifically.
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Henrik Stenson – $11,500
In a field of this strength, Henrik Stenson should be at least $12,000. We are getting a discount on a golfer that is head and shoulders better than every other golfer in this field, and people are still avoiding him. The narrative that Stenson is just showing up to this event to maintain his tour status is fair, but how about it’s also because he wants to continue the mini heater is his on. Stenson has three straight top 17, all in world class fields. He ranks first in my weighted stats model, crushing Par 4s and approach shots over his past 12 rounds. I am getting the sense his ownership will be around 15%, maybe lower, which is absurd for a golfer who could lap this field if he’s on.
Bud Cauley – $9,200
I cannot, and will not quit Bud Cauley. “Justin Thomas’s” buddy has been playing very well as of late, and popped up on the leaderboard at the PGA early last week. In the field, Cauley ranks 2nd in SG:App and 14th in Par 4 scoring average, which should set him up perfectly for Sedgefield, a course he has had success at in the past. Cauley has a T10 and a 3rd place finish at the Wyndham in the past five years, to go along with two missed cuts. However, this season on corollary courses, he finished 12th (John Deere Classic) and 3rd (RBC Heritage) – another top 15 finish and hopefully higher, is well within the cards.
Chez Reavie – $8,100
Chez Reavie is becoming a cut making machine. Chez has made nine of his last ten cuts, which include a T4 at the St. Jude and impressive T22 last week at a tough Quail Hollow that didn’t seem to fit his game. In his last 12 rounds, Chez ranks 9th in SG:App, 21st in Birdies and 3rd in Fairways gained. His accuracy off the tee and recent approach stats will give him plenty of birdie looks this week. He needs to figure out these bermuda greens if he wants to have a chance, but his tee to green game will make him a solid cash option, someone who will definitely be playing four rounds.
Kevin Na – $7,500
Simply put, Kevin Na is too cheap this week and his value has to be taken advantage of. In his past 12 rounds, Na ranks 2nd in Par 4 scoring, 6th in SG:App and 6th in Birdies gained. That includes his missed cut at the PGA last week. Sedgefield will take the driver out of Na’s hands this week, so his wildness off the tee will be minimized. He came 10th at this event last season, and could really use some FedEx Cup points as the playoffs linger right around the corner. I think this is a great “get right” week for Na at a course that seems to suit his eye.
Luke Donald – $7,000
Very rarely will you see Luke Donald’s name get mentioned in the Staples section, but this week is a fitting week to include him. Accuracy and no distance is what Luke Donald brings to the table, a perfect fit for Sedgefield. Donald hasn’t been lighting the world on fire lately with six straight missed cuts, but he is turning into (probably already is) a golfer that plays well on courses that he likes or that fit his game. Harbour Town is one of those courses, where he’s come second in back-to-back years. He came runner up at the Wyndham last season, so Sedgefield could be one of those tracks where Donald takes his top 5 money and says “see ya next year.”
Wyndham Championship Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Jason Dufner – $10,400
In a field of this strength, I find it very beneficial to make plenty of logical pivots because no one really knows how any of the golfers are going to perform. They are in this field because of their inconsistencies, and pivoting to lower owned golfers can be profitable. This week, Jason Dufner is the lowest tagged golfer on FanShareSports in the $10K+ range. There is no reason for Dufner not to be getting love this week. He is accurate of the tee and deadly with his irons, ranking 1st in SG:APP over his last 12 rounds. He has a top 10 at this event within his last three trips here, won a few weeks ago at Muirfield (another shorter course) and came T11 at RBC Heritage, a corollary course. Dufman is my favorite tournament play of the week.
Keegan Bradley – $9,500
In a week that seems like it should be a Keegan Bradley week, no one is really getting behind him. He only has 15 tags on FanShareSports, despite a bunch of stats that say he should have way more. Keegan has been driving the ball incredibly all season, ranking first in total driving in this field. Even though distance won’t matter as much, he is very accurate off the tee, so clubbing down will likely yield the same result. Keegan ranks 3rd in the field in ball striking, and 3rd in Par 4 scoring average. Obviously, putting is his kryptonite – if his putter shows up this week, Keegan will have a late tee time on Sunday.
Scott Brown – $8,200
Scott Brown turned in an improbably T13 last week at Quail Hollow, backed by an impressive putting performance. Brown gained 5.3 strokes on the green, but also 3.3 in his approach shots. He now has two top 25s in his last three events and has seen his price jump way up to $8,200. He only has 11 tags on FanShareSports, compared to Reavie who has 21, priced right below him. Brown may be drawing some inspiration from good buddy Kevin Kisner – maybe they can both crack the top 15 again this week.
Emiliano Grillo – $7,500
What a fall from grace it has been for Emiliano Grillo. He is on a terrible run lately, missing three of his last five cuts. Those missed cuts were all majors, and the Wyndham Championship, isn’t one. Grillo is one of the best talents in this field and at an accuracy style course, can surely bounce back and make a run. He only has two tags on FanShareSports, so he will likely be under 5% owned. If Hagy or Ollie are not your cup of tea, Grillo is a great pivot option.
Ryan Blaum – $6,900
There aren’t a lot of names below the $6K range that I like, or can even stomach rostering this week, but Ryan Blaum would be the first guy I go to if I need some salary relief. Blaum has made five straight cuts including two top 10s, getting back to the form we got use to seeing at the beginning of the season. He ranks 10th in my weighted stats model, due to his Par 4 scoring and BoB% over his past 12 rounds, ranking 2nd and 3rd in those stats respectively. Pivot off of the bomber Trey Mullinax, who doesn’t suit this course at all.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Webb Simpson – $10,000
Webb Simpson is trending towards being the highest owned golfer on the slate – I cannot get behind that. He has been playing much better lately, that is certain, but at $10K, I need to be very confident he is going to finish inside the top 10 in order to return value. Even with his great course history, he showed last year with his T72 finish at the Wyndham he is capable of struggling at this course. With the weak field and volatility of all of these golfers, I’d rather pivot to the lower owned, equal upside of Jason Dufner.
Grayson Murray – $9,100
Alright Grayson, that was a fun run but the road ends here. Murray has been on a heater lately with a win at the Barbasol and a solid run at Quail Hollow. Sedgefield does not set up for Murray, who ranks 108th in the field in driving accuracy and 124th in scrambling. Take the biggest weapon, his distance, out of his bag and we should see Murray struggle, especially after grinding out four rounds last week.
Brandon Hagy – $7,400
Brandon Hagy is a similar story to Grayson Murray, where their biggest weapon won’t be a factor this week. Hagy is a masher and leads the field in driving distance, and even if he clubs down to hit fairways, his approach game will not save him. Hagy is 123rd in SG:App in the field, and does the majority of his damage on Par 5s. Sedgefield has never been a course where bombers eat it up. Toss in Hagy’s projected higher ownership, sits 17th most tags on FanShareSports, and fading Hagy seems like the logical play.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Kyle Stanley – $9,300
Considering the lack of talent in this field, there aren’t many golfers who roasted your lineups within the last few weeks to highlight. There is however, Kyle Stanley. Stanley seemed like a safe, cheap option last week at the PGA, but let everyone down with a terrible display of putting. Stanley lost the most strokes putting last week in the entire field. What is scary is that the Sedgefield greens are the same grass type as Quail Hollow’s, so let’s hope Stanley spent his off days figuring out how to roll them on bermuda grass. He only has nine tags on FanShareSports, the fewest of any golfer priced above $9K.
Thanks for reading the Wyndham Championship preview article! You can follow me on Twitter for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!!
by RickRunGood | Aug 14, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Defending Champ, Si Woo Kim, will head to Greensboro, NC to defend his title. This week’s Research Spreadsheet includes:
*NEW* Key Stats – Breakdown and ranking of “Key Stats” for the this tournament, with new scoring system — NOW WITH SORTABLE STATS, you choose the stats you want to see!
*NEW* Last Week – A transparent look into the Key Stats for last week and how the player’s finished.
Past Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, broken down by year.
Historic Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, by totals (since inception – min three appearances)
Recent Performance- Full stats for the L5 years at this tournament and L10 weeks on TOUR.
Full Box Scores –Â All final performance stats for years 2016, 2015 and 2014.
Betting Odds –Â Odds for each player to win top 5 and top 10
DraftKings Salaries, Fanduel Salaries, FantasyDraft Salaries
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, get started below:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
by EPattersonFS | Aug 8, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! Let’s hope you pivoted to Hideki Matsuyama last week and built up the bankroll for this year’s last major!
The PGA Championship has arrived – glory’s last shot. It’s also your last shot to win a million bucks on DraftKings until football season rolls around. The 99th PGA Championship will be held at Quail Hollow in Charlotte, North Carolina. It is a 7,400 yard Par 71 course that will test all aspects of a golfer’s game. Being long and accurate off the tee will be important to attack Quail Hollow’s long Par 4s. Reports are circulating that the rough could be as long as five inches in some areas- hitting fairways will be crucial. A solid approach game is always a must, specifically from 175 yards and out, where over 50% of shots will be hit from. Since the approaches will be coming from distance, not every shot is going to find the putting surface – scrambling will be very important as well. This will be the first time Quail Hollow will be played on their new Champion dwarf bermudagrass greens. Typically, new greens play firm and fast, so golfers who have had success on faster, tougher greens in the past may have a slight advantage.
With that quick breakdown of the course, the key stats I am looking at are;
25% – Strokes Gained Approach
20% – Strokes Gained Off the Tee
15% – Birdie or Better %
10% – Scrambling
10% – Par 4 Scoring Avg
10% – Proximity 175+
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Rory McIlroy – $11,800
It’s time to eat allll the chalk in the world. Boring yes, but if you go 60% Rory this week, you will still be overweight on the field and can differentiate elsewhere. This is Rory’s week to lose. All signs are pointing in his direction – the dominate course history, PGA Championship history and recent results. He has back-to-back top five finishes in world class fields. Rory gained 8.1 strokes on the field last week, while LOSING 1.5 strokes on approach shots. No one has ever worried about Rory’s approach game, so when that turns around this week at Quail Hollow, we could see another runaway victory.
Hideki Matsuyama – $10,500
The reason why targeting elite ball strikers who excel tee to green rather than putters, is Hideki Matsuyama. He is known to be one of the worst putters on tour, yet when his elite approach game is on, his putter just has to be average for him to win. I do not see a reason why his form from last week won’t continue into this week. Hideki gained 6.4 shots approaching the green and 5.8 shots around the green last week, both will translate well to Quail Hollow. We have seen Hideki win back-to-back events as early as this past December, so winning hangovers are not a thing for him. A Hideki – Fowler start to cash games will be super popular this week, with good reason.
Adam Scott – $8,600
The price tag on Adam Scott is getting to a point where you have to jam him in. He is priced below Matt Kuchar? Come on. In any scenario heads up, everyone would take Scott over Kuchar, yet ownership this week will likely tell a different story. Scott has been showing consistent form lately, missing one cut since Augusta and his last three results are trending towards a top ten finish. He has always been one of the best ball strikers from 200+, something that should separate him from the field this week. Scott would bring elite upside to a balanced lineup construction.
Daniel Berger – $7,700
Continuing the trend of eating chalk this week for my staples, Daniel Berger is another “jam him in” play. Berger’s price tag makes him super attractive, one of the reasons why he sits 3rd in tags on FanShareSports this week. He has three top fives in his last six events, including a win at the St. Jude and a runner up to Jordan Spieth’s hole out at the Travelers. Berger’s betting odds have plummeted from over 100:1 a few weeks ago to 50:1 heading into Thursday. There is a buzz around the industry that this will be Berger’s week, and I don’t want to miss out if it is.
Tony Finau – $7,000
This price on Tony Finau is an absolute steal. There are few golfers in the game right now that are playing better than Finau. He has five straight top 30s including a T5 in Canada and T7 at the Greenbrier. He has slowly became one of the most consistent golfers on tour, he just hasn’t had a lot of chances to showcase it on the big stage. His off the tee game is unfair, ranking third in SG:OTT in his last 12 rounds. Add that to his birdie making and bogey avoidance abilities, he has a great make up for Quail Hollow. He also has two top 30 finishes at Quail Hollow in his only trips to this course. Finau will be super popular this week, but even high ownership won’t scare me off of him. I can see a top 10 finish coming from Tony.
Xander Schauffele – $7,000
Xander Schauffele is making a strong run at rookie of the year. Since his win at the Greenbrier, Schauffele has finished T20 at The Open and T13 at the Bridgestone. He can hang with the big boys on tour and he will have another week to prove that at Quail Hollow. He is long off the tee, which will leave him with manageable distances into these greens. Xander has solid proximity stats from 175+, but his main weapon is his putter. He is one of the best putters in the field as of late, and if these greens are rolling firm and fast, his prowess on the greens should give him a slight advantage. With all of the popular options at $7,000, I think Xander will go slightly underowned than projections suggest. The general public still does not know who X-Man is, and this weekend will be flooded with non-golf fans playing DraftKings PGA.
PGA Championship Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Jordan Spieth – $12,000
The most expensive golfer on the board, a pivot? It seems that way. With only 19 mentions on FanShareSports, Spieth is being blindly ignored because Rory is sitting right below him. Spieth is one week removed from back-to-back wins, not that people need reminding he won The Open. Spieth always finds a way to put his name in the mix during major weeks, and this week will not be any different. He ranks 1st in my weighted stats ranking this week furthering the point that Spieth cannot be ignored this week simply because of Rory. If Spieth is below 20% owned this week, a ton of people have made a huge mistake.
Jason Day – $10,400
Every week, Jason Day seems to find his way into the perfect pivot position. His game has not been where we expect from Day, but he did flash some form last week at Firestone. He won’t see any ownership in the Milly Maker, when people are loading up on Fowler and Matsuyama. I won’t be shocked to see Day’s ownership be 10%, which for a golfer above $10K, is unheard of. He has an incredible PGA Championship record and the last time he played at Quail Hollow, he finished T9. If you want to bring on the riski with Day and take a few stabs at a million bucks, he would be a solid low owned option to go to.
Sergio Garcia – $9,400
Sergio was still battling the post wedding hangover last week at the Bridgestone Invitational, which led him to an average T39 finish. Garcia only has 15 tags on FanShareSports, compared to Koepka’s 30 who sits $200 cheaper. Garcia has the all around game that will work well at Quail Hollow. Long, accurate and good around the greens, if Garcia is on, he could find his way into a late tee time on Sunday.
Alexander Noren – $7,900
The first couple of times Alex Noren made the trip across the pond, he was extremely popular because of his high world ranking and the fact that DFSers like shiny new toys. Now after multiple starts in the U.S., the love for Noren has disappeared after not turning in top finishes. He only has nine tags on FanShareSports, despite his solid last two events. Noren’s price tag will likely keep his ownership down, as most lineups constructed this week will be stars and scrubs. This seems like a perfect stage for Noren to finally make a splash on North American soil.
Hudson Swafford – $7,000
With only five tags on FanShareSports, Hudson Swafford’s ownership is going to be tiny. At the $7,000 range only, you have Poulter, Chappell, Finau and Xander, all popular players on FanShareSports. Swafford over his past 12 rounds, ranks 15th in SG:APP and 33rd in SG:OTT, both very solid for someone priced this low. He is also trending in the right direction, with T58, T32 and T10 in his last three starts. Swafford is the play if you don’t want to eat $7,000 chalk.
Francesco Molinari – $6,800
Francesco Molinari ranked so highly in my weight stats model over the past 12 rounds, I had to jam him in somewhere in this article. Noticing how loaded the $7,000 range is and how Zach Johnson will likely be a chalky pick, Molinari became a great low owned target for me. He only has 10 tags on FanShareSports, and likely off people’s radar because he is a short hitter. He is however, deadly accurate and is the best player in this field from 200+ yards over the last 12 rounds. Unlike ZJ, who I will be fading because of his projected higher ownership, I like Molinari to bunt his way around Quail Hollow and make up for it in long approaches.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Henrik Stenson – $9,800
Out of the top guys in this field, Stenson has by far the worst course history. He has a T58 and three missed cuts in his last four appearances at Quail Hollow. His recent stats aren’t the best either. He ranks 68th in SG:OTT and 46th in SG:APP in this field over his last 12 rounds. Combined that with his terrible course history, and he becomes an easy fade priced as the eighth most expensive in this field.
Matt Kuchar – $8,800
The weekly fade Matt Kuchar play is back. He came up short in returning value the last two events since The Open, coming T32 in Canada and T17 last week in a 76 man field. $8,800 isn’t an unfair price for Kuchar, but it’s still too much for me to pony up for. This will be his fifth event in a row, with some grueling travel in between. His lack of distance is also a concern here. Too many question marks for me to take the plunge on Kuch.
Matthew Fitzpatrick – $7,400
Something is wrong with Matthew Fitzpatrick’s game and I am not willing to burn $7,400 to see if this is the week he turns it around. Fitz’s best finish since early June is a T35 at the U.S. Open, has missed two out of six cuts. In his last 12 rounds, Fitzpatrick ranks 130th in SG:OTT and 121 SG:APP in this field. His betting odds suggest he should be priced about $500 cheaper.
Padraig Harrington – $7,000
This is a free square under the fades section. There is no way Harrington should be priced $7,000 next to guys like Finau, Chappell and Kisner. Paddy and Quail don’t get along either – his last four appearances here have resulted in an average finish of 132nd.
Zach Johnson – $6,800
This is my ownership fade of the week. Zach Johnson has been playing much better lately and it is being recognized across the DFS community. He currently leads all golfers in tags below the $7K mark with 23, suggesting he will be the chalk of the value plays. The length of Quail Hollow might be too much for ZJ to overcome, who is struggling off the tee and with long approaches. In his last 12 rounds, he sits 64th in SG:OTT and 51st in Proximity from 200+. Jump off now before ZJ comes crashing back down to earth.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Dustin Johnson – $11,400
Dustin Johnson only has 21 tags on FanShareSports. That is incredible for a golfer, who on paper, could easily tear Quail Hollow apart. He has the length, approaches, short game and putting that when clicking leads to domination we saw earlier in the season. But after multiple average finishes in a row leading up to the PGA, people seem to be abandoning DJ in favour of Rory and Rickie. The world #1 might see ownership levels below 15%, and if that is the case, his GPP playability is through the roof.
Justin Rose – $9,000
This might finally be the week where Justin Rose returns to the ownership levels we got use to last season. His stock “rose” this season after his Masters performance, and he began to see an inflated price and higher ownership. Now at $9,000, Rose is returning to a course where he has had plenty of success. In his last two trips to Quail Hollow (for the Wells Fargo) he has a 3rd and 5th place finish. With only 15 tags on FanShareSports, Rose’s upside and low ownership will make him a great tournament option.
J.B. Holmes – $7,400
The former winner at Quail Hollow is off people’s radars this week with only 13 tags on FanShareSports. J.B. Holmes showed form at the RBC Canadian Open but crushed a lot of lineups last week with his T60 finish at Firestone. His driver, which let him down earlier in the season, is back as he ranks 16th in SG:OTT in this field over his past 12 rounds. If he can continue to drive the ball as well as he has been, J.B. will have a huge advantage if the course sees some rain this week and is playing soft. At $7,400, he will not see a lot of ownership as he falls in a dead range in the DK pricing.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello – $7,100
Heading into last week’s Bridgestone Invitational, Cabrera-Bello had a win at the Scottish Open and and a T4 at the Open Championship under his belt. He was $7,900 last week and had 18 tags on FanShareSports. RCB rewarded those who rostered him with a near dead last finish and now, RCB is going unnoticed. He only has three mentions on FanShareSports and finds himself in a crowded price range on DraftKings. He is in a prime bounce back situation at an ownership that could fall under 5%.
Thanks for reading the PGA Championship preview article! I hope you enjoy the final major of the season! You can follow me on Twitter @EPattersonFS for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!!
by RickRunGood | Aug 7, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
Defending Champ, Jimmy Walker, will head to Charlotte, NC to defend his title. This week’s Research Spreadsheet includes:
*NEW* Key Stats – Breakdown and ranking of “Key Stats” for the this tournament, with new scoring system — NOW WITH SORTABLE STATS, you choose the stats you want to see!
*NEW* Last Week – A transparent look into the Key Stats for last week and how the player’s finished.
*NEW* Quail Hollow Stats – Since QH is a regular Tour stop, I’ve included both PGA Championship and Quail Hollow history.
Past Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, broken down by year.
Historic Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, by totals (since inception – min three appearances)
Recent Performance- Full stats for the L5 years at this tournament and L10 weeks on TOUR.
Full Box Scores –Â All final performance stats for years 2016, 2015 and 2014.
Betting Odds –Â Odds for each player to win top 5 and top 10
DraftKings Salaries, Fanduel Salaries, FantasyDraft Salaries
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, get started below:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
by RickRunGood | Aug 1, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?!I hope everyone had a profitable RBC Canadian Open. We sure came close last week and had bullets all around the top of the leaderboard. Let’s get the winner this time!
It has been a while since we have had a no cut event, but here we are. The WGC Bridgestone Invitational is just that. The field will only have 76 golfers in it and every player is guaranteed 72 holes of golf. That’s if no one pulls a Daniel Berger from last year, who took one tee shot and collected his $60,000 paycheck. No cut events allow for us DFSers to take more risk in our lineups, target golfers who are prone to scoring a ton of DraftKings points and really focus in on ownership projections this week. Having lower owned golfers who perform well will differentiate your lineups more than they typically would.
The Bridgestone Invitational is held at Firestone Country Club’s South Course, which has been the host of this event since 1962. That’s lots of course history. It is a long 7,400 yard Par 70 track that rewards an all around elite game. You have to be long and straight off the tee, be able to hit a variety of different length approach shots and be able to scramble well do to the smaller greens. Tiger Woods won this event eight times, so yeah, that’s the type of golfer that wins here. Dustin Johnson is your defending champ, with other recent notable winners being Rory McIlroy and Adam Scott. The key stats I am focusing on this week are SG: Off the Tee, SG: Approach, Proximity from 200+, Par 4 Scoring Average and of course, Birdie or Better Percentage. BoB% will be very important this week because it has the greatest impact on DraftKings scoring. Give me 72 holes out of a known birdie maker over a guy like say…Bill Haas.
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Rory McIlroy – $11,400
It’s Rory’s week. He is the guy I am committing to at the top and building the majority of my rosters around. I will have small pieces of most of the top guys, but I will go down with the ship if Rory does not show up this week. The latest buzz around McIlroy is he “parted ways” with his long time caddie. Instead of looking at it like a negative, I think this will give him a fresh start and a new opinion on the bag. He showed his form was back at the Open and he is now entering the stretch of the season where he dominated last year. Rory won this event back into 2014 and there would be no better way to head into the PGA Championship next week at Quail Hollow with a win at Firestone.
Jon Rahm – $9,700
Sign me up for 72 guaranteed holes of Jon Rahm. The birdie making ability of Rahm alone makes him an outstanding play this week. When he gets it going, he is up there with Rory and DJ in terms of heaters and birdie runs. He has showed this a few weeks ago at the Irish Open when he lapped the field winning by six. In Rahm’s last two WGC events, yes one was the match-play, he has a second and a third place finish. His distance will be a huge advantage this week over most of the field – Firestone seems to set up for him perfectly even though he has not played in this event. His $9,700 price tag is easy to fit in alongside one of the top tier players. If Rahm can get off to a hot start on Thursday and stay out of his own head, he will be in the hunt all week long.
Daniel Berger – $8,300
There are few golfers in the world playing as well as Daniel Berger right now. He ranks 2nd in my weighted stats model showing incredible SG:APP, 200+ Proximity, Par 4 Scoring and Birdies Gained numbers over his past 12 rounds. You are going to have to eat some Berger chalk this week if you want to roster him. He is the 6th most tagged golfer on FanShareSports, with good reason. He has three top five finishes in his past five events, including a win at the St. Jude. Berger is a lock in cash games at $8,300 and is a smart bet to win at 40/1.
Kevin Chappell – $7,500
Kevin Chappell was my guy last week and he paid off until he couldn’t quite find it on Sunday. I am going back to the well on Chappell for Bridgestone, even though he is getting a little more attention than he was last week. Chappell gained strokes in all categories last week at the Canadian Open. In his past 12 rounds, he ranks 12th in SG:APP, 11th in Prox from 200+ and 11th in Birdies Gained. Chappell and Berger have a very similar skill set heading into the week, both being very sneaky options to take down a WGC title.
Kyle Stanley – $6,700
The Stat God is back, this week at a price we can all find room for on our roster. Kyle Stanley is only $6,700 in a no cut event. 72 holes from one the purest ball strikers on tour is one thing I am going to have a lot of shares of. Even if his putter goes cold for a couple of rounds, he will have the chance to continually attack pins all weekend long. He is one of the best off the tee players in the field, which will be super important as these fairways are tough to hit. Pencil Stanley into your cash lineups now and enjoy the free spending you can do at the top.
WGC Bridgestone Invitational Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Hideki Matsuyama – $10,200
As the old adage goes, if there is a no cut event and Hideki Matsuyama is playing, he is a must start. It has worked in the past at numerous events. Hideki has two wins and a runner up finish in three of the last four no cut events on tour. He is one of the best birdie makers in the world and when he is guaranteed 72 holes, he typically rises to the top. Matsuyama only has 18 tags on FanShareSports and is being completely overshadowed by Rickie Fowler, who looks to be chalk this week. Hideki will be less that 15% owned in GPPs and no one would be shocked to see him lifting the trophy on Sunday.
Jason Day – $9,400
Jason Day has started to turn things around after a less than stellar start to the season. His 27th place finish at the Open isn’t great, but it is encouraging after back-to-back missed cuts before then. I do not remember the last time Day’s price was this low on DraftKings either. He represents tremendous value at a low ownership because everyone is just too afraid to roster him. He only has 12 tags on FanShareSports, the lowest of anyone above $9K. With ownership being such an important factor in no cut events, Day is an outstanding GPP pivot. Oh, he also came T3 at this event last year.
Alexander Noren – $8,100
Let’s keep pounding the ownership topic. Alexander Noren only has seven tags on FanShareSports, the lowest of anyone priced above $8K. It is easy to predict that Noren will be the lowest owned golfer in the $8K and up range. Noren might not have the ideal distance for this course, but he is an accurate driver who can score on Par 4s and is good around the greens. That seems like a solid recipe for success at Firestone. If Noren is in the 5% owned range, then he is a must start in GPPs and someone it is easy to go overweight on.
Ross Fisher – $7,200
If you are looking for a golfer to pivot from off of Xander, Dufner or Schwartzel, look no further than Ross Fisher, who rates out as one of the best golfers in the field over his past 12 rounds. Fisher comes in at 15 in my weighted stats rankings over the last 12 rounds, where he has been crushing it on SG:APP, Proximity from 200+ and birdies gained. He was a popular pick at Augusta earlier this year and was fairly popular at the Open. With only six tags on FanShareSports, he is back to flying under the radar.
Bryson DeChambeau – $6,800
I am in no way a big Bryson DeChambeau guy, but in the scenario, the numbers do not lie. In his past 12 events, Bryson ranks 3rd in my weighted stats model. He has been extremely impressive lately, ranking 8th in SG:OTT, 19th in SG: Par 4 and 2nd in birdies gained. At $6,800, there is next to no risk in rostering Bryson. If he has found something that everyone thought he had when he first turned pro, four rounds of whatever he found could turn into DraftKings gold. He only has eight tags on FanShareSports – a great GPP pivot off of Kyle Stanley.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Matt Kuchar – $9,300
Matt Kuchar made a ton of sense at Royal Birkdale. He was $7,200, seemed like a lock to make the cut and was highly owned because of it. Last week Kuch was $11,400 and only managed a T32. Now in a no cut event with field equally as strong as the Open Championship, rostering him at $9,300 makes little sense. He has had success at this event in the past, but Kuch has been playing a ton of golf lately and showed signs of an illness last week in Canada. His cut making ability isn’t a factor and he isn’t known to be on the best birdie makers in the field. I don’t see the upside to rostering Kuchar this week when playing it safe will likely not pay off.
Branden Grace – $8,600
Branden Grace simply doesn’t do it for me this week. This doesn’t seem like an event where Grace would have a ton of success. He has one top 10 here in the past five years, and his birdie rate as of late is not going to translate to a lot of DraftKings points. Grace ranks 49th in the field in BoB% and struggles to score on Par 4s. His $8,600 price tag is too rich as well, especially when I want to pay up for some of the big dogs.
Charl Schwartzel – $7,200
I guess it is fade the South Africans this week. Charl Schwartzel is getting a lot of buzz heading into Thursday. He currently sits as the 9th most tagged golfer on FanShareSports, with 21 tags. This stems from his solid course history where he has two top 7 finishes in the past three years. If Charl is going to be a chalkier option in the low $7,200 range, I will completely pass on him. Before his T12 at the Porsche European Open, Charl came T62 at the Open and missed the cut at the US Open, two big time field events.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Justin Rose – $9,900
Justin Rose was a popular play at the Open Championship, where he was $10,300 and garnered 28 tags on FanShareSports. He finished with a mediocre 54th place finish and people have quickly turned the page. Right now, he only has 15 tags on FanShareSports, the fewest of any golfer priced above $9,500. In the past five Bridgestone Invitationals, Rose leads the entire field in total strokes gained. He has three top 5s in the past five years at Firestone. Sure his recent form hasn’t been the greatest, but he is still the one the best ball strikers in the world and is back a course that fits his eye.
Justin Thomas – $8,200
Remember, 72 holes are guaranteed this week. Birdies will be king and there isn’t a single player in the field that makes birdies at a higher rate than Justin Thomas. JT leads both BoB% and Par 4 BoB%, and he will have 48 opportunities to show off his prowess on Par 4s. He showed he has the capabilities to perform in strong fields, on long courses at Erin Hills. JT can easily show up at Firestone this week.
Louis Oosthuizen – $7,800
Louis Oosthuizen may have the biggest chance to withdraw this week, making him a perfect GPP play because his ownership should be around 5%. He is gaining no attention this week and it shows on FanShareSports with only two tags. Louis also burned everyone at Royal Birkdale with his brutal missed cut. He is super risky but the reward should be very worth it. He has a top 5 finish at this course back in 2012. If targeting low owned golfers is your thing, Louis has to be on your radar.
Kevin Kisner – $7,100
It wasn’t that long ago when Kevin Kisner was everyone’s fantasy darling. He has been priced way higher than $7,100 and was usually one of the most talked about golfers each week. Now his price is affordable and his tag count on FanShareSports is at three. There was some chatter a few weeks ago that Kisner could contend at Royal Birkdale and at Quail Hollow next week. His T54 at the Open wasn’t the best result, but he does have a T16 at Firestone last year. If Kisner has created some buzz for major events, why can’t he show up this week too?
Thanks for reading the WGC – Bridgestone Invitational preview article! You can follow me on Twitter for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!!
by RickRunGood | Jul 31, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Defending Champ, Dustin Johnson, will head back to Akron, OH to defend his title. This week’s Research Spreadsheet includes:
*NEW* Key Stats – Breakdown and ranking of “Key Stats” for the this tournament, with new scoring system — NOW WITH SORTABLE STATS, you choose the stats you want to see!
*NEW* Last Week – A transparent look into the Key Stats for last week and how the player’s finished.
Past Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, broken down by year.
Historic Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, by totals (since inception – min three appearances)
Recent Performance- Full stats for the L5 years at this tournament and L10 weeks on TOUR.
Full Box Scores –Â All final performance stats for years 2016, 2015 and 2014.
Betting Odds –Â Odds for each player to win top 5 and top 10
DraftKings Salaries, Fanduel Salaries, FantasyDraft Salaries
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, get started below:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
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