by Brad Messersmith | Jul 26, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. There are really three true standouts this week which is very exciting in such a week field event. The results of events following a major tend to be fairly wide open because of the weaker base of players playing in these events. The first potential value that stands out on this chart is Patrick Rodgers who has roughly 60:1 odds to win this week despite a mere $7,000 price tag. The same can also be said for Daniel Summerhays who is in nearly an identical boat. Both Summerhays and Rodgers are intriguing to me having made exactly four cuts in a row each. With Rodgers we’re typically used to a very streaky set of results with missed cuts and upside being the normal mix, and Rodgers coming in off of a second place finish at the John Deer Classic two weeks ago leaves me wondering if his upward trend will continue. Either way both Summerhays and Rodgers will definitely make their way into my GPP lineups this week.
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Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. In terms of ownership this week, given it’s a weak field, you can expect there to be some serious clusters of ownership on a small few players. It’s hard to predict these clusters early in the week but given the aforementioned fact that results will tend to be wide open in an event like this, it may be a good week to go a bit contrarian. One name who catches the eye in that department is Rick Lamb, who at $6,800 has made four of his last five cuts and finished top 20 in three of those same events. Two weeks ago he managed to find himself in contention with a 3rd place finish at the John Deere classic, and we are on a track that plays to Rick’s strength…his cannon. It may surprise you to find out that Rick is in the top 10 in Strokes Gained off the tee, yet remains in the top 25 in proximity which makes him a skilled second shot player with a well-rounded game which should suit this course perfectly. Sign me up, and for those of you who are playing along in Vegas, I will be placing a few loose coins on Rick Lamb to win this thing at nearly 200:1 odds.
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Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. A quick glance at this chart and Will McGirt should instantly stand out to you. I suspect a quick glance at the list of salaries may have warranted the same results which means McGirt will most likely suffer from the ‘cluster effect’ of ownership I mentioned previously. McGirt has great course history and his 56th rank in the world makes him nearly the tenth best ranked golfer in this field despite his near minimum salary price tag. While I don’t love McGirt’s chances to win this thing, I definitely thing he has top 10 upside and is probably worth taking a hard look at in GPPs.
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RBC Canadian Open Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
by EPattersonFS | Jul 26, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! What an Open Championship we were treated to. I hope you guys had a piece of Jordan Spieth and Matt Kuchar, despite my oversight on those guys last week. My bad.
Oh, CANADA!!!! Our home and native land!
Sorry, I won’t bore you with the entire anthem like they do at sporting events, but I sure am excited for my nation’s open! Even though the field this week suggests tour players feel otherwise.
The RBC Canadian Open will be held at Glen Abbey Golf Club in Oakville, (not Toronto) Ontario. It is a SHORT 7,200 yard Par 72. All four Par 5s are reachable in two by most, which will lead to plenty of eagles over four days. Typically, we see the winner at Glen Abbey finish around -15. There is plenty of scoring opportunities out there this week and the golfers who can pick apart these Par 5s will have the upper hand.
As for the key stats, Strokes Gained: Off the tee will be my highest weighted stat. There is not a ton of trouble on this course, but there is water if you miss badly. I do believe the bombers will have the upper hand this week. Last year we saw the course play super fast, with drives running out into water hazard. I can tell you from experience, Toronto and surrounding areas have been getting hammered with rain all summer long. Glen Abbey will be playing softer than ever. All of the Par 5 fall between 500-558, so Par 5 Efficiency will be used, combined with Par 5 Birder or Better Percentage. Lastly, I’ll toss in SG: Approach and Scrambling. SG:APP is a great way to predict who will have the most looks at birdies. Scrambling will become important, especially if golfers are trying to get up and down for birdie.
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Dustin Johnson – $12,200
Talking about the top player in the world in an extremely weak field, how original. Let’s just say that people are worried about Dustin Johnson’s game and his long trip over from Royal Birkdale to play in an event he probably could care less about. He leads the “sit” count on FanShareSports right now, which is crazy. DJ has the potential to lap the field in terms of DraftKings scoring this week. For DJ, this course plays more like a Par 68 considering these Par 5s are all reachable in two. He has two runner up finishes at Glen Abbey in the past, showing he wants to contend at this event. What better time for DJ to get back on the horse than this week in Canada. Plus, who wouldn’t want a little more Paulina screen time.
Tony Finau – $9,500
Tony Finau seems poised for a win this season and he might not have a better opportunity than this week. His stats mirror DJ’s this week and they could not fit any better. His length and scoring ability on Par 5s should put Finau near the top of the leaderboard this week. He ranks 2nd in the field in Par 5 BoB%, 2nd in SG:OTT and 2nd in greens in regulation. He enters this week in incredible form making seven straight cuts. It’s time to go all in on Finau.
Gary Woodland – $7,900
Gary Woodland is Tony Finau lite. And Tony Finau is Dustin Johnson lite. So that makes Woodland DJ lite lite? Regardless, Glen Abbey seems like a perfect fit for another bomber who can score a ton on Par 5s. Comparing the same stats as Finau, Woodland ranks 3rd in Par 5 BoB%, 17th in SG:OTT, and 11th in GIR. His approach game has also been dialled in all season long. Woodland has made plenty of cuts this season, but has yet to finish inside the top 10 since March. He gets that monkey off his back this week.
Chad Campbell – $7,500
Welcome to Chad Campbell chalk week! Campbell has the third most tags on FanShareSports and at his price tag, he is going to soak up a ton of ownership in that range. There is merit to fading Campbell in GPPs because of his ownership, but his recent form, stats and course history suggest doing otherwise. He ranks 5th in my weighted rankings, driven by his three straight top 20 finishes. Over his last 12 rounds, Campbell ranks 18th in SG:APP and is the 2nd best scrambler in the field for the year. There is no reason to believe a finish outside of the top 20 is in the cards this week.
Ollie Schniederjans – $7,300
Ollie Schniederjans emerged onto the PGA scene at the Canadian Open two years ago with a T22 finish. Returning to Glen Abbey for the second time, I truly believe Ollie is going to make an even bigger splash this year. Two weeks ago at the John Deere Classic, he came out of the gates super hot and was the first round leader. He unfortunately fell off the pace, but recorded his seventh straight made cut. Ollie has the distance and Par 5 scoring ability to take advantage of these getable Par 5s. He also ranks 19th in SG:APP in this field for the year. With all the hype around Patrick Cantlay this week, I think it’s Ollie’s turn to finally get into contention late on Sunday.
Robert Garrigus – $6,600
Robert Garrigus lead the field last week at the Barbasol Championship in strokes gained T2G but came close to dead last in strokes gained putting. One of those stats has to give and I am going to gamble on the fact that his putter cannot remain that ice cold for another four rounds. Garrigus was continually hitting approach shots to inside 10 feet. If Glen Abbey plays as easy as it is anticipated to play, Garrigus could have another field day off the tee and approaching the green. Just make a damn putt Robert!
RBC Canadian Open Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Kevin Chappell – $9,000
This seems like a perfect week to build balanced lineups. Not only is there a lack of top talent besides DJ, but the ownership projects on the golfers in the $8K range is down right criminal. Currently, Kevin Chappell has seven tags on FanShareSports, which doesn’t even come close to the golfers priced ahead of him. Chappell arguably a top five golfer in this field, but is will likely come in at under 10% ownership. Pound the mid range this week if you want to make contrarian GPP lineups.
Shane Lowry – $8,600
Shane Lowry is a lot like Chappell this week. His price falls in a range where it seems like people are overlooking, even though some of the top talent in the field is here. Lowry has not been playing well lately, that’s obvious. But his stats for the season seem to fit what Glen Abbey is all about. He is 11th in SG:OTT and 22nd in SG:APP. He crushes Par 5s between 500-550, ranking 11th in the field in efficiency on those holes. Lowry only has THREEEEE tags on FanShareSports, and I am fairly certain his ownership is not going to exceed 10%. He is my favourite pivot play this week.
Harris English – $8,400
Harris English has been sneaky good lately, especially in his approach game. He ranks 1st in SG:APP and 3rd in DK points over his past 12 rounds in the field. Englihs has made five of six cuts, his only cut happening when he lost 8.4 strokes off the tee. That shouldn’t be too big of an issue at Glen Abbey with limited trouble off the tee. English only has three tags on FanShareSports, and is once again a reason why hammering the $8K range could be a profitable strategy.
Brandon Hagy – $6,900
At $6,900, finding a golfer who ranks 13th in SG:OTT and 9th in Par 5 BoB% is amazing. Brandon Hagy fits the bill as a golfer who can score a ton at Glen Abbey. Hagy has made four straight cuts entering the Canadian Open, so hopefully that blend of solid form and perfect course fit will lead to a steal at $6,900. If you are worried Power and Rodgers will soak up some ownership in this price range, Hagy seems like a logical pivot.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Jim Furyk – $9,100
This does not seem like Jim Furyk’s tournament to win, or even contend in. With all the bomber talk and Par 5 scoring requirements needed to compete, it’s shocking to see Furyk’s impressive course history. With that said, the Furyk we are seeing this year isn’t like years past. He ranks 125th in the field in Par 5 BoB% and 107th in SG:OTT. Hard pass on Mr. 5 Hour Energy.
Robby Shelton – $8,100
The Mackenzie Tour superstar is beyond overpriced this week. He struggled earlier this season to make cuts on the PGA Tour, and for some reason figured going to Canada was his best route back to the PGA Tour. It goes without saying he shouldn’t be touched at $8,100. The odds that he repays his value are about the same as Mike Weir making the cut this week.
Kelly Kraft – $7,800
As soon as I heard Kelly Kraft get mentioned on a formidable podcast with a lot of pull, he instantly became an automatic fade. Kraft had his run, turned heads at The Greenbrier by gaining 10.9 strokes on approaches. His 64th finish at the John Deere seems like a more reasonable result for a golfer who ranks 43rd in SG:OTT and 103rd in Par 5 Eff. from 500-550 over his past 12 rounds.
Seamus Power – $6,800
Caveat – Seamus Power was in my staples section before I looked at FanShareSports and saw that he ranks 9th in tags for the week with 21. This is a pure ownership fade in GPPs. If Power approaches 15% in large tournaments, then you have to pivot elsewhere. He is a volatile golfer who is in good form, but can miss at cut any given week. Even though Glen Abbey isn’t the most difficult track on the PGA Tour, Power has never played it. Hell, I’m not sure he’s even been to Canada! It’s a whole different world up here…
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Danny Lee – $8,000
Danny Lee has WD from the John Deere Classic. These were words most of the DFS Golf community dreaded to see two weeks ago. He had to pull out of the event with a shoulder AND wrist injury. Obviously dealing with two injuries is never a good sign, but he was in England last week assumingly ready to play incase a golfer in the field bowed out. If he felt good enough to travel across the pond and wait around, I think the extra time off will make him even fresher for the Canadian Open. His price has dropped since the last time we saw him, but the game remains the same. High risk, high reward.
Nick Taylor – $7,900
Nick Taylor was showing real signs of life heading into the John Deere Classic. He had a T29 and T9 finish in the two weeks prior. His missed cut has definitely caused people to abandon ship as he only has seven tags on FanShareSports. Taylor has enough distance and a good approach game to score well at Glen Abbey. He also has the scoring ability on Par 5s needed at this course, ranking 50th in the field on Par 5s between 500-550. His high price will keep his ownership down. If there is a dark horse Canadian to emerge this week, my money’s on Taylor.
Stewart Cink – $7,400
The old man narrative was in full effect last week at the Open Championship, and those that rostered Stewart Cink took a hit with his missed cut. Three weeks ago at the Greenbrier, Cink was tagged 34 times on FanShareSports. His missed cut last week and now only has 11 tags on FanShare. He has been lights out with his approah game this year and is scoring very well on Par 5s. Don’t sleep on old man Cink at Glen Abbey, a course he finished 5th at back in 2015.
Canadian Content
Gotta pour one out for my fellow countrymen here. Fun(ish) facts about some of the Canadian contingent.
You guys are well aware of the top Canadians in this field. Adam Hadwin, Graham DeLaet, Mackenzie Hughes, David Hearn and Nick Taylor are the most prominent names. Oh, and Mike Weir of course. But here are a few quick notes about other Canucks looking to take down their National Title.
Jared du Toit – $7,200
Was the story of the tournament last year, finishing T15 as an amateur. He has moved on from Arizona State and the shadow of Jon Rahm. He has made five straight cuts on the Mackenzie Tour.
Hugo Bernard – $6,900
How can you not like a guy named Hugo. He is the reigning Canadian Men’s Amateur champion. He tied du Toit in last week’s Mackenzie Tour event with a T7 result. Could easily be this year’s storyline.
Matt Hill – $6,700
Won the 2009 NCAA Div I Championship beating notables Kyle Stanley and Rickie Fowler on his way to the title. His game has gone in completely different directions than those two, struggling to make cuts on the Mackenzie Tour this season.
Austin James – $6,700
Not the same Austin from Canada who came T14 at last week’s Open Championship.
Garrett Rank – $6,600
For a long time has been one of Canada’s best amateurs. Made the cut here last season. Is an NHL referee in the offseason.
Bryn Perry – $6,600
Is a PGA of Canada pro, so don’t go near this guy. I’m sure Bryn would say sorry if he missed a cut for you.
Brad Fritsch – $6,500
I cannot confirm, but he is either a massive Ottawa Senators fan or is sponsored by the team. He should not be the lowest owned Canadian golfer in this field. Made five straight PGA cuts at the beginning of the year. Since then…ugly.
Thanks for reading The RBC Canadian Open preview article! You can follow me on Twitter for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!!
by RickRunGood | Jul 24, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, FantasyDraft, PGA |
Defending Champ, Jhonattan Vegas, will head back to Ontario, Canada to defend his title. This week’s Research Spreadsheet includes:
*NEW* Key Stats – Breakdown and ranking of “Key Stats” for the this tournament, with new scoring system — NOW WITH SORTABLE STATS, you choose the stats you want to see!
*NEW* Last Week – A transparent look into the Key Stats for last week and how the player’s finished.
Past Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, broken down by year.
Historic Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, by totals (since inception – min three appearances)
Recent Performance- Full stats for the L5 years at this tournament and L10 weeks on TOUR.
Full Box Scores –Â All final performance stats for years 2016, 2015 and 2014.
Betting Odds –Â Odds for each player to win top 5 and top 10
DraftKings Salaries, Fanduel Salaries, FantasyDraft Salaries
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, get started below:
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by EPattersonFS | Jul 18, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! The Open Championship has arrived! Finally after what seemed like a long stretch of terrible PGA fields, we have a slate we can all drool over.
The 2017 Open Championship will be played at Royal Birkdale in Southport England. The course is a 7,100 yard Par 70, whose main defence is wind. Just off the coast of the Irish Sea, the winds could wreak havoc on Royal Birkdale. Looking at the weather now, a delay could be in the cards on Friday AM, with rain and wind gusts over 30 mph. Keeping a close eye on the weather will be very important when making lineup decisions. It is wise to build tee time wave lineups, just incase one group of tee times gets hammered compared to the other.
Royal Birkdale is not a bomber’s paradise. Accuracy will be crucial off the tee and to avoid the treacherous bunkers that are littered throughout the property. Phil Mickelson has stated he will likely leave the driver at home this week, hitting 3-wood off the tee as his longest club. That shows how little players will be relying on distance. The winning score at Royal Birkdale during the 2008 Open was +3, by Padraig Harrington. The wind was brutal back in 2008 and proves how difficult this course can get when the winds are howling. With that being said, my key stats this week will be Strokes Gained Approach, Driving Distance, Bogey Avoidance, Scrambling and Par 4 Scoring Average.
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Sergio Garcia – $10,600
Sergio got the monkey off his back by winning the Masters. Now he can head into his best major feeling less pressure than ever. Garcia has been a monster at Open Championships in the past, including three straight top six finishes. Garcia has continue his steady play since Augusta and is a clear top option to win this week. He has all the tools to succeed at Royal Birkdale if the wind gets out of control. Garcia is the safest player on the board to turn in a top 15 finish, rain or shine.
Hideki Matsuyama – $9,500
If you are going to compile a list of best players to have not yet won a major, Hideki Matsuyama’s name would have to be near the top. The World No. 2 golfer is lined up for another top finish at a major. He has only played once since this T2 at the U.S. Open, but that result was a T14 at the Irish Open, not too shabby. Matsuyama is one of the purest ball strikers in the world and shouldn’t have any issue navigating Royal Birkdale even in the harshest conditions.
Rickie Fowler – $9,200
I know present you, this week’s chalk. There is no way in hell Rickie Fowler should be priced $9,200. The prices did come out before last week’s Scottish Open, where he finished T9, but come on. Fowler will be the highest owned golfer this week and he is being pegged around the industry as the one who is going to win. Fowler has came close to winning the Open in 2014, and if there were every a year to finally break through, this would be it. He is having a career season and entering this week in great form. Load up on your Fowler shares – you’ll need to own over 40% of him if you want to be overweight.
Paul Casey – $8,100
Paul Casey is becoming known as a golfer who will always linger around the top of the leaderboard but doesn’t quite have what it takes to win. True, and fair, but that is certainly not a reason to pass on him at $8,100. Casey has taken some time off since the Travelers, where he finished T5. I think his lack of play recently will keep his ownership in check, but his price tag is still very tempting. In his last 12 rounds, Casey ranks 13th in the field in SG:APP and 14th in Fairways Gained. He has the off the tee game and approach game that will put him in the hunt once again on Sunday.
Francesco Molinari – $7,300
So Royal Birkdale will be an accuracy course? Time to fire up Molinari. He ranks 6th in the field in driving accuracy and 2nd in SG:APP on the season. Molinari has been popping up on leaderboards often this year. He has gained strokes on the field in 13 of 15 events so far. Moli has hung around in Open Championships in the past, showing he can battle it out with the World’s best on links courses. Expect Molinari to avoid the trouble, avoid the nasty green side bunkers and put himself in the mix at a very reasonable $7,300,
Kyle Stanley – $6,600
The year of Kyle Stanley continues. Even after his first win in years and a slow start at the John Deere Classic, he managed to battle back and make another cut. His putter, like normal, let him down last week. He still gained 4.5 strokes tee to green last week despite his T55 finish. In his last 12 rounds, Stanley leads the field in fairways gained – showing just how deadly accurate he is off the tee. Stanley will always pop out on the stats page and I will continue to roster his elite ball striking and streaky putter until he completely loses it.
The Open Championship Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Justin Rose – $10,300
Out of all the golfers priced above $10K, only Jason Day has fewer tags on FanShareSports than Justin Rose in that range. The price is definitely going to scare people off of Rose this week, as they can likely find another $300 to pay up for Sergio Garcia. Rose was the low amatuer at Royal Birkdale back in 1998, a very long time ago but course history nonetheless. He was T4 at the Irish Open two weeks ago, so things are shaping up for Rose to fly under the radar like we use to see and surprise us all come Sunday.
Thomas Pieters – $8,400
What happen to everyone’s favorite player from earlier this year? The DFS world was in love with Pieters after his Masters performance, but after a disappointing U.S. Open it seems as though the love has worn off. Pieters only has six tags on FanShareSports, and is surrounded by a bunch of other popular plays. Yes, Pieters is know to be a bomber and this course shouldn’t suit his style of game. But perhaps we see his great approach game surface again that put him near the top of the leaderboard at Augusta.
Branden Grace – $8,000
Louis O, Paul Casey, Marc Leishman and Alex Noren are all golfers priced around Branden Grace that are getting more love on FanShareSports. Grace has the 30th most tags this week, which is shocking given his affordable price and his ability to hang with the big boys in these big events. In his last 12 rounds, he ranks 18th in SG:T2G in the field and 38th in strokes gained on Par 4s. Grace makes for the perfect pivot option in a crowded price range and is a golfer who, should they contend, could win someone a lot of money.
Matthew Fitzpatrick – $7,400
The low $7K range is loaded with popular options, and is a good spot to start fading the chalk in GPPs. Molinari, Kuchar and Poulter are all golfers gaining a ton of traction on FanShareSports, where Matthew Fitzpatrick is barely getting noticed. Fitzpatrick has been having an up and down season, with his most recent result being a missed cut at the Scottish Open last week. In his past 12 rounds in extremely windy conditions, Fitzpatrick ranks 40th in SG:Total in the field.
Pat Perez – $6,900
Pat Perez has been MIA since the U.S. Open where he missed the cut. He now comes into the Open at $6,900 and is being overshadowed by a lot of other golfers. There was a time this season where Perez was an automatic start he was playing so well. He has one of the best short games in this field that should help him scramble well and avoid the big numbers. If you don’t think Stricker or Sullivan is the play in this price range, Perez sure seems like someone who could pop up out of no where.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Jason Day – $10,000
Something is very wrong with Jason Day this year and I am not willing to risk the chance he might find it this week at Royal Birkdale. Day has been awful off the tee this year, ranking 97th in driving accuracy. He has missed his last two cuts and hasn’t played since the Travelers. There are too many other options in at the top of this board to consider Day if you are only building a handful of lineups.
Tommy Fleetwood – $9,800
I was all in on Tommy Fleetwood at the U.S. Open and became huge fan. He was a joy to watch and has the approach game to put him with the World’s best. But $9,800 is way too much for my liking. The narrative this week is that Royal Birkdale is Fleetwood’s home course so he should for sure be comfortable at this course. But, we have seen it many times in the past. Home courses can add a lot additional pressure and force the golfer to trunk slam on Friday.
Phil Mickelson – $8,700
I mentioned earlier how Mickelson will not be putting a driver into his bag this week because of how important accuracy is. The thing is, Phil is still wild with this 3 wood. I cannot put stock into Phil if the most important aspect of the tournament is accuracy off the tee. I was also expecting to see a little bit lower of a price tag that $8,700. I am finding it way too easy to find some saving elsewhere and pay up for Fowler instead.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Dustin Johnson – $12,000
Dustin has been struggling a bit lately with back to back missed cuts entering the Open. Combine that with his $12,000 price tag, and enough people will stay off of him to keep his ownership reasonable. DJ is DJ and we all know he can win any given week. I do not anticipate his ownership going over 15% which means he could be the steal of the week. DJ will be just fine.
Rory McIlroy – $11,000
What to do with Rory this week could actually be the million dollar question. He has been very bad lately, missing three of his last four cuts. At the U.S. Open, he showed his complete inability to hit the ball straight and was finding the fescue all over the course. He has since missed two cuts at the Irish and Scottish Opens, two events you’d think he be able to bounce back at. If you are going to construct 20-50 lineups, I think you have to have about 10-15% Rory just incase he does put it all together. Taking the driver out of his hands this week could be the best thing Royal Birkdale can do for him.
Brendan Steele – $6,800
Three weeks ago at the Qucken Loans National as the last time we saw Brendan Steele. He was the chalk that week and treated everyone with a lovely missed cut. He is now priced at $6,800 and only has eight tags on FanShareSports. His ball striking ability should be able to help him get around Royal Birkdale without too many issues. Steele is also one of the best drivers of the ball in the field, in terms of both accuracy and distance. Steele is a sneaky pick to bounce back nicely while everyone has moved on to greener grass.
Thanks for reading The Open Championship preview article! You can follow me on Twitter @EPattersonFS for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!!
by Brad Messersmith | Jul 18, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. It’s finally here, The Open Championship! With the field being maxed out with some of the best golfers in the world this week you can expect to find some serious value. First and foremost we have Rafael Cabrera-Bello, who for those of you who may not be following the Euro Tour closely, is coming off of his first win in roughly four years at the Scottish Open last week. At only roughly 60:1 odds to win, Vegas believes RCB is more likely to win than names like Daniel Berger, Brandt Snedeker, and Zach Johnson. Berger and Snedeker actually stand out on their own for value purposes, both of which find themselves similarly priced to RCB. At the end of the day all three of these guys could win this tournament and find themselves sub $7k, so don’t overthink and plug them in!
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Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. This week you can expect a few things to be true, one of which is that Jason Day will be extremely low owned due to his recent struggles. I’m personally going to be taking a wait and see approach, but when it comes to a golfer as talented as Jason Day, if you wait and see it may be too late because he can come out of nowhere to win. On the flip side you can definitely expect the likes of Rickie Fowler, and Hideki Matsuyama to come in as two of the more popular plays this week.
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Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. It should probably come as no surprise to see Daniel Berger’s name make the list when it comes to Salary Vs. OWGR this week given my statements above. You can expect Daniel Berger not to go unnoticed with his price tag, but if you’re looking for a bit of a pivot, you may think about considering Alexander Noren who most will have forgotten is actually ranked within the top 10 golfers in the world. Yet Noren’s price is only $7,800 and I don’t expect him to be one of the more popular plays on the board.
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The Open Championship Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
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Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
by RickRunGood | Jul 17, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, FantasyDraft, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Defending Champ, Henrik Stenson, will head to Southport, England to defend his title. This week’s Research Spreadsheet includes:
*NEW* Key Stats – Breakdown and ranking of “Key Stats” for the this tournament, with new scoring system — NOW WITH SORTABLE STATS, you choose the stats you want to see!
*NEW* Last Week – A transparent look into the Key Stats for last week and how the player’s finished.
Past Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, broken down by year.
Historic Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, by totals (since inception – min three appearances)
Recent Performance- Full stats for the L5 years at this tournament and L10 weeks on TOUR.
Full Box Scores –Â All final performance stats for years 2016, 2015 and 2014.
Betting Odds –Â Odds for each player to win top 5 and top 10
DraftKings Salaries, Fanduel Salaries, FantasyDraft Salaries
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, get started below:
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