These are interactive tables, graphs and charts that allow you to slice the data quickly and make your research process even easier. These visuals will replace the traditional MLB Game Logs and Player Scoring Calendar while adding more tools that I could only dream of in the past. These will continue to be Pro Tools and I believe will add incredible value to the price of your membership. Below is a tutorial to show the new MLB Visuals and a few FAQs. Finally, these tools are FOR YOU. I want to make these as awesome as possible, so please send me all your suggestions and feedback. I can be reached on Twitter or via email.
This may be the most exciting post I’ve written since the start of DFS On Demand. I have always been a huge fan of gathering as much raw data as possible across the sports and was always challenging myself to find new trends or uncover value options. Based on my own headaches and feedback from readers, it was clear that we needed a new (and easier) way to consume all this data. With that being said, today I am launching the MLB Data Visuals!
These are interactive tables, graphs and charts that allow you to slice the data quickly and make your research process even easier. These visuals will replace the traditional MLB Game Logs and Player Scoring Calendar while adding more tools that I could only dream of in the past. These will continue to be Pro Tools and I believe will add incredible value to the price of your membership. Below is a tutorial to show the new MLB Visuals and a few FAQs. Finally, these tools are FOR YOU. I want to make these as awesome as possible, so please send me all your suggestions and feedback. I can be reached on Twitter or via email.
If you are a Pro Member, you can start viewing these right now!
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Frequently Asked Questions
How often will these be updated?
My goal is to still update these every morning so that you have the latest data to view. There may be a few delays in the early days as I get more comfortable with this new process, but I hope to make this as smooth as possible.
Are these free?
As with the other tools that I offer, these MLB Data Visuals will continue to be part of the Membership Service. I believe that be adding these new tools, the value of the membership is even greater. The membership options can be found here.
How do I suggest new visuals?
Yes please! This is only version 1.0. I plan to improve and upgrade these as often as possible but want to do that with your feedback. You can send me a tweet or email me with any of your feedback.
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. I’m a bit surprised at the way this chart looks because typically on weeks where the field is weaker (this week certainly qualifies) there are usually some much bigger outliers in this comparison tool. The few who do stand out this week, don’t strike me as major standouts the way I’m used to seeing. Boo Weekly and Scott Brown both stand out a bit at $6,600 and $7,000 respectively, but realistically if posed with a choice, I think I’d pass on both and elect to take one of the younger guys with more upside and less consistency. If you’re a golf betting person, you may want to pick this week to take some fliers as we’ve seen a lot of weak field events result in young standout’s getting their first win.
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Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. I am crossing my fingers and praying to the golf gods that I’m not wrong about Zach Johnson’s low ownership, because if he does come in at under 15% he makes for a phenomenal GPP play. He hasn’t been playing great this year, but he can win this tournament, is under priced, and low owned which is a recipe for a great GPP option. I bet you didn’t realize until this moment that Bubba Watson is in this field until just this moment. Why? Because you’ve perpetually glanced down the list of golfers and browsed past his name without a second thought for the last several months because of his poor play. However, Bubba has 20 golfers who are higher priced than him, including the likes of Bud Cauley, David Hearn, and Ben Martin. I’m not telling you Bubba is going to win this thing, but I’m telling you he can, and since he’s likely to be under 5% owned I’ll take a shot on Bubba without much risk.
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Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. Here is where things really get interesting, because in a field where there isn’t much to pick from when it comes to sheer talent, we’ve got some serious discrepancies in this chart. The biggest of said discrepancies is Wesley Bryan who will make his way into a lot of my lineups. He’s the fourth highest ranked golfer in the field in the OWGR yet is only $7,300! This is a golfer who won 3 times on the Web.com tour just last year and has already tallied a win in his rookie season. Make no mistake about the talent that this young man has, and jump on board with me!
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Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! I hope everyone jumped on Xander Schauffele last week in a big way and was able to make some money! Let’s hope we can strike gold again and find a winner in the golfer’s I have listed below.
The touring pros head to Silvis Illinois for the John Deere Classic, held at TPC Deere Run. The track is a 7,200 yard Par 71, with three Par 5s and four Par 3s. It is consistently played as one of the easiest courses on the PGA Tour, and scores will creep into the -20s. The greens are huge and fairways are wide, but if you miss by enough, the rough can become penial. Making birdies, and a ton of them, will be critical this week. That is why Birdie or Better Percentage, is my highest weighted stat this week. Strokes Gained Approach is a close second as golfers who are on with their iron play will be looking at makeable birdie putts all week long. I am also focusing on Proximity 100-150, as the majority of the approach shots will be from this 50 yard window. Par 4 scoring average and Good Drive Percentage will also be incorporated into my stats model. Now, to say this field is weak might be an overstatement. It is brutal. But that doesn’t mean we can’t figure out which scrub is the best of them all!
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Danny Lee – $10,200
This slate is ugly folks. You definitely didn’t need to be reminded of this, but it may be a good week to scale back the exposure. Regardless! Danny Lee is my favourite play on the board. He is the obvious next in line guy to pick up win, with top 10 finishes in two of his last three events. Lee leads the field in strokes gained total, DraftKings points and is second in strokes gained approach over his last 12 rounds. It is highly unlikely his run of amazing form will run out this week at the John Deere, an event he has success at in the past. Danny Lee will be the first person placed in my cash lineup this week.
Kyle Stanley – $9,600
The monkey is finally off Kyle Stanley’s back. He picked up his first win in five years at the Quicken Loans National, a result we all had a feeling was coming sooner rather than later. It will be interesting to see how he returns off of a win, but seeing how he reacted after his win, he seems emotionally invested and hungry for more. Stanley has been a stat God all season long and almost completes a full sweep in terms of key stats for this week, ranking inside the top 10 in each. If he putter can be just average for another four rounds, Stanley has a good chance of going back-to-back.
Chez Reavie – $8,400
You know it’s an ugly slate when Chez Reavie is not only $8,400, but also a great play. Reavie comes in ranked 4th in my weighted rankings, driven by his impressive stats and solid recent form. Over his past 12 rounds, Reavie ranks 6th in the field in SG:APP and 11th in SG:TOT. For the season, he ranks 2nd in Good Drive % and 7th in Par 4 scoring. It won’t feel good to pencil Reavie into your cash game lineup as one of your more expensive golfers, but he is head and shoulder above most of this field in terms of stats.
Nick Taylor – $7,600
Nick Taylor’s name has been popping up quite a bit on the leaderboard lately. He has gotten off to hot starts in both of his last two events, and unable to find another low round in him to propel him to the top of the board. He gained 4.2 strokes on approach shots last week at the Greenbrier, continuing his solid run of iron play. Taylor’s course history could scare people off of him which is great, because in each of his last two seasons, he was showing nothing close to the form he is showing now. Taylor is in a busy price range with plenty of popular options, so his ownership will not get out of hand. He is my pick for the next Canadian golfer to pick up a win on tour.
Michael Kim – $6,900
Michael Kim surprisingly pops up this week, ranking 13th in my weighted stats model. He ranks 20th in BoB%, 14th in Par 4 Scoring and has an amazing approach game from 150 yards and in. In his last 12 rounds, Kim ranks 14th in the field in SG:APP and 13th in SG:T2G. Kim has made six of his last seven cuts, including a T29 last week at the Greenbrier. His recent results are trending in the right direction and if he can put himself in situations where he has a wedge into the green (should be often), Kim could make a run at winning the John Deere Classic.
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Charley Hoffman – $9,700
In a field of this magnitude (or lack thereof) figuring out the top tiered golfers that will be underowned is crucial. Charley Hoffman is shaping up to be that golfer this week. With only 15 tags on FanShareSports, he has the third fewest out of anyone priced above $9K. Hoffman’s recent form is incredible, with an 8th place finish at the U.S. Open followed by a T3 at the Travelers. Maybe it only took a couple weeks off to forget what Charley has been up to?
Jamie Lovemark – $9,300
Jamie Lovemark is another golfer who is being ignored in the $9K range. His price jumped up $1,000 from last week, but his tags have not done the same despite his T3 finish at the Greenbrier. He only has eight tags on FanShareSports so far this week. His play recently has been elite. Lovemark has gained over nine strokes T2G in three of his last five starts. He showed his ability to contend in these weaker field events and has come up short a few times now. If he keeps knocking on the door, eventually some of those make or break putts will begin to fall.
David Hearn – $8,200
The mid to low $8K range will be loaded with chalky plays this week. Cauley, Reavie, Martin and Na are all hoarding the tags on FanShareSports, allowing for David Hearn to fly under the radar. His price is steeper than we are use too, and the last time he was priced above $8,000 he missed the cut. However, Hearn does have three top 15 finishes in his last four outings, gaining over seven strokes total in those three results. He also has a runner up finish at this event back in 2012. If you want to completely fade the chalk in the low $8K range and cannot stomach to roster Bubba Watson, Hearn is your best bet.
William McGirt – $7,700
William McGirt has had a less than stellar season so far, rarely finding his way inside the top 20. However, we saw this last year, he is more than capable of contending any given week, especially in a field of this caliber. McGirt is always been steady off the tee, ranking very well in Good Drive %. If he can dial in his approach game and putt average to the field, he will be in great shape this week. His last time out at the Travelers was a positive sign, gaining strokes in all categories other than putting. If you want to make a pivot play off of the uber popular Kelly Kraft, McGirt at the exact same price makes for a great leverage play.
John Deere Classic Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Steve Stricker – $9,800
Old man Stricker not only finds himself as the fifth most expensive golfer this week, but he is also the second most tagged golfer on FanShareSports.com. Maybe the hype has gone a little too far? I get that Stricker won this event three years in a row, but his last two trips to TPC Deere Run have been fairly mediocre. If Stricker ends up being one of the highest owned golfers of the slate at an insanely high price, you have to fade him. The likelihood of Stricker finishing in the T30 range is much greater than a result that would return any sort of value.
Bubba Watson – $8,100
Bubba is broken. It’s that simple. There is no scenario where rostering Bubba makes sense or would feel right. His flash in the pan at the Memorial was clearly a one off, as he has followed up that performance with two missed cuts and a T70 last week at the Greenbrier. His name value is currently driving up his price. If you looked at a list of player’s stats, form and DK price, without revealing any golfer’s name, Bubba’s ownership would be 0%.
Kelly Kraft – $7,700
Where did all the Kelly Kraft backers come from? The Kraft bandwagon is packed right now – he is surprisingly leading the way on FanShareSports when it comes to “start” calls. This is a similar situation to Steve Stricker where I think the ownership will be way too high to roster in larger GPPs. Kraft has been playing much better lately, coming 5th last week at the Greenbrier. He also came T5 at the John Deere Classic last year. But, he is still the same golfer who has missed nine of his last twelve cuts. Last week, he gained 10.9 strokes on approach shots, 10.8 shots better than his career average. Seems like regression is imminent.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Kevin Kisner – $10,400
Yup, Kisner roasted me last week and the burn is still lingering. He was my favorite play on the board, along with many others across the industry. Kisner garnered plenty of ownership last week, and it’s clear people are getting off of him. He is the least tagged golfer in the $10K range on FanShareSports, even though his stats are still elite for this field. Kisner ranks second in strokes gained total in the field over the last 12 rounds. He isn’t the safest cash play on the board this week, but if Kisner is going to be the lowest owned golfer out of the top tier in this tournament, he has to be rostered in GPPs.
Ollie Schniederjans – $7,400
The curious case of Ollie Schniederjans DQ last week at the Greenbrier was clarified when he stated he signed an incorrect scorecard. He still would have missed the cut by a shot, but regardless, people were left with a dead spot in their lineup if they had rostered Ollie. He has turned into a solid cut maker in the past couple of months, with last week the first time he hasn’t played on the weekend in eight events. Ollie is also one of the best birdie makers in this field, which will become extremely important when this event inevitably becomes a shootout.
Sean O’Hair – $7,100
Sean O’Hair gained a lot of attention on FanShareSports last week when he was priced at $8,100. His missed cut at the Greenbrier has made people quickly forget why they liked him so much. Now with only two tags on FanShare, O’Hair is in a perfect spot to bounce back and burn all the people that moved on. Over his past 12 rounds, O’Hair has been playing extremely well, ranking 13th in strokes gained total in the field. Don’t turn the page too quickly on O’Hair who also makes for a great pivot play off of Wesley Bryan.
Thanks for reading The John Deere Classic preview article! You can follow me on Twitter @EPattersonFS for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Create your own Key Stats model for the PGA! Choose the stats that are most important to you and add weighting. The spreadsheet will pump out a “score” for each player based on your stats and weights. I made a quick YouTube video to show you how this works and I highly suggest watching it:
This is something I’ve been talking about for a few weeks and I am finally ready to unveil a Key Stats spreadsheet where you determine the stats that are most important to you. Please keep in mind that this is only the first version and will be continually improved over time. I plan to add additional stats and make the sheet more user-friendly. I am open to any and all feedback! Please send me a tweet or email me.
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, get started below:
Defending Champ, Ryan Moore, will head back to Silvis, IL to defend his title. This week’s Research Spreadsheet includes:
*NEW* Key Stats – Breakdown and ranking of “Key Stats” for the this tournament, with new scoring system. *NEW* Last Week – A transparent look into the Key Stats for last week and how the player’s finished. Past Performances – How players have fared at this tournament in the past, broken down by year. Historic Performances – How players have fared at this tournament in the past, by totals (since inception – min three appearances) Recent Performance- Full stats for the L5 years at this tournament and L10 weeks on TOUR. Full Box Scores – All final performance stats for years 2016, 2015 and 2014. Betting Odds – Odds for each player to win top 5 and top 10 DraftKings Salaries, Fanduel Salaries, FantasyDraft Salaries
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, get started below:
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