by Brad Messersmith | Jul 5, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This week is going to be a much more difficult week with the fact that the pricing is a bit tighter and the field is quite a bit weaker than usual. That being said there are a couple of outliers this week, one of which is Billy Hurley III who comes in at only $6,200. While I wouldn’t go overboard with Billy Hurley I do think he presents some value and upside in such a weak field despite his poor recent form, especially when you consider that he’s finished fourth and thirty-seventh in his last two showing at this event. The other outlier is Steward Cink at $6,900 with nearly 65:1 odds to win. Not only does Stewart Cink make a great play in GPPs for his price, he is an absolute lock for me in cash formats boasting his astounding 10 top 30 finishes in his last 14 events.
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Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. This week you can expect ownership to depend drastically on what the industry experts are saying about certain golfers, however there are a few clear cut opportunities this week in my opinion. The first of which is Bubba Watson who leaves me a bit torn. On one hand his ownership is going to be exceptionally low in an event with not many premium golfers to choose from, however on the other hand he’s been playing exceptionally poorly nearly all year! It’s hard to want to pile onto Bubba like I have in years past but I think he is worth a small flier knowing he has the potential to be under 10% owned. On the other hand, you can expect players like Tony Finau, Danny Lee, Bill Haas, and David Lingmerth to all find their way into a lot of lineups!.
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Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. There are a couple standouts on this chart that are very intriguing to me! The first of the standouts this week is Mackenzie Hughes who has flown a bit under the radar into the 111th position in the OWGR. At only $6,300 he definitely qualifies as value, and we’ve seen time and time again in weak fields rookies on tour find their way to break through for their first win 5-6 times a year. Seems like Hughes could fit the bill this week. The other standout is Si-Woo Kim who definitely makes an interesting GPP play. I think there is no question in my mind at this point that Si-Woo has some serious upside when it comes to GPPs, however inconsistency is the name of the game with Si-Woo. All that being said, in the mid-$7k range the pickings are slim so I’ll be firing Si-Woo up into a few of my lineups without question.
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Greenbriar Classic Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
by EPattersonFS | Jul 4, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA, Research, Strategy |
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! The Quicken Loans National was a great success. I hope you had yourself some Kyle Stanley last week! His win was one that we saw coming from miles away – let’s see if we can go back-to-back.
The Greenbrier Classic is the next stop on the PGA Tour. It will be hosted by Old White TPC Golf Course in West Virginia, a 7,300 yard Par 70. This course has held the event since 2010. Last year, floods caused The Greenbrier Classic to be skipped, so our defending champion is Danny Lee, who won back in 2015. After the flooding cleared the course was re-seeded and had some minor adjustments made to the layout. Bent grass is now used on the greens and fairways. Some of the greens were reshaped and the bunkers around the greens were altered. For the most part, this course will play close the same as it did in 2015, when the winning score was -13. The fairways at Old White are wide and some of the easiest to hit on tour. The greens are also large in size giving golfers with less than stellar short games a chance to contend. The stats I will be looking at this week are Strokes Gained Off The Tee, Strokes Gained Approach, Ball Striking, Par 4 Scoring, Birdie or Better Percentage and Bogey Avoidance.
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Kevin Kisner – $10,700
When the top of the board is thin like it is this week at the Greenbrier, my strategy is to go with the cheapest guy I can feel comfortable building a cash game lineup around. This week, Kevin Kisner is that guy. His $500 in savings off of Patrick Reed will go a long way this week. Not to mention Kinser is playing extremely well this season, has incredible stats and lost in a playoff at this event in 2015. He has the 8th most tags on FanShareSports at the moment, behind everyone but Mickelson in the $10K+ range. The only cause for concern could be some rust, as this will be his first event since the U.S. Open. With that said, I am confident that Kisner will be in the hunt on Sunday.
Tony Finau – $9,100
For some reason Tony Finau is only $9,100 and will likely be owned in over 30% of lineups in large GPPs. His price is way to low for an event of this caliber. You will have to go all in on Finau if you want to reap the rewards of his impending victory at the Greenbrier. We have seen it numerous times this season, where a golfer seems to be knocking on the door week after week and then finally getting a win. Finau is the next golfer up to continue this trend. He ranks 1st in my weighted rankings, 1st in my weighted stats model and has made nine of his last 10 cuts. There is a reason why Finau will be the chalk this week and there is no reason to think he will disappoint.
Xander Schauffele – $7,900
Xander Schauffele has continued to play very well since his run at the U.S. Open. He has made five straight cuts, gaining strokes off the tee in all five events. Last week at the Quicken Loans was his worst week off the tee in a while, but Old White TPC will give him the chance to bomb it out there like we saw him do at Erin Hills. I expect a bounce back week for Xander when it seems as though others have soured on him. Xander only has 10 tags on FanShareSports and his price tag will not do his ownership any favors.
Gary Woodland – $7,500
Typically, I am not on Gary Woodland. His price always seems to fall in the $8K range and his upside to contend is limited. I am giving the nappy factor a chance to take control this week. He withdrew from last week’s event to be there for the birth of his son, a happy ending to an otherwise sad and difficult situation Woodland and his family had to face. Woodland hasn’t played much in the past couple of months, but he has made 11/13 cuts in 2017. His length will be a huge advantage this week. Let’s hope the nappy factor can strike once again.
Stewart Cink – $6,900
This is a Stewart Cink price I can get behind. After a few weeks where Cink’s price was over $8K, it is now at a level where his T25s will become more valuable. Cink has been one of the most consistent players on tour this season, seemingly always ending up in or around the top 25. He hasn’t had a week of negative strokes gained on approaches in 12 straight events. In his past 12 rounds, Cink is 5th in this field in total strokes gained. His price is way too low this week and will allow you to go a bunch of different ways with your cash game lineup.
Greenbriar Classic Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Patrick Reed – $11,200
In weak field events, the general strategy seems to go with a more balanced lineup. The scrubs in these tournaments are trash, and the upside a top tiered golfer offers isn’t much higher than someone in the $9K range. That will leave someone like Patrick Reed to go under owned. Reed has 21 tags on FanShareSports, but seven of those are sit calls. People are moving off of Reed at a point in the season he is playing his best golf. Four of his last five events have resulted in a T20 or better finish. He has gained strokes on approach shots in six of his last seven events. There are plenty of cheap options out there to fit Reed into your lineup. A win is coming soon for Reed, and the week of Independence Day seems like a fitting time for it.
James Hahn – $8,800
In a week where Tony Finau looks to be the chalk, James Hahn will garner next to no ownership in a spot he could easily go off in. He has a 3rd and a T6 in his past four events, while gaining strokes in all categories besides putting in his past 12 rounds. Hahn finished T6 at the Greenbrier back in 2015, rounding out all of the aspects you are looking for in a pivot play.
Bryson DeChambeau – $7,400
For some, it is unfortunate to see one of the least popular players on the PGA Tour put together some solid form. DeChambeau’s last two events have resulted in a T26 and T17 finish, gaining over 12 strokes in those events combined. His game is clearly trending in the right direction, and a run at the top of the leaderboard in one of these weaker fields is bound to happen. His best finish this season was a T2 in Puerto Rico. The Greenbrier field isn’t quite as bad, but it’s a spot where Bryson could easily rise to the top.
Mackenzie Hughes – $6,300
Digging into the below $7K range this week will get ugly. However, Mackenzie Hughes is an outlier for me this week, priced only $300 above the dead minimum. Hughes has made five of his last six cuts, doing so in a variety of different ways. Sometimes his putter saves him, other times it’s his off the tee or around the green game. He is inconsistent, which is why he is priced this low, but he does have all of the required talent to win this event if he can put the entire package together for four rounds. Last week at the Quicken Loans, Hughes lost almost nine strokes on approach shots. If that stat normalizes but a few shot, a top 20 finish is well within reach.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Bill Haas – $10,800
There is no question Bill Haas is on a heater at the moment. His last four events have all resulted in top 25 finishes, included a T5 at U.S. Open. There is just a part of me that cannot stomach paying $10,800 for Haas knowing his limited winning upside, even in a field of this strength. Haas only has one tour win in last three and a half years and at $10,800, you are counting on your elite golfer to get the job done. Haas will be popular this week because of his form, and fading him will be more profitable than rostering him and collecting a T20 finish.
Russell Henley – $9,300
Last week I was on Russell Henley as a pivot play, but his result at the Quicken Loans National was fairly disappointing. Over his past 12 events, Henley ranks 142nd in SG:APP in this field, ballooned by a terrible -5 shots last week alone. Usually Henley’s approach game is the strong part of his game, so there is some definite cause for concern after seeing how poorly he struck the ball last week. His price this week remains in the familiar low $9K range – a spot I will take a hard pass on until I see his approach game start trending in the right direction.
Geoff Ogilvy $8,000
One top 15 finish and Geoff Ogilvy’s price jumps to $8,000? No thanks. The flash in the pan we all saw last week at the Quicken Loans National will not carry on to this week. Ogilvy gained 4.9 strokes off the tee last week, his best driving performance within the last five years. If you think he can go back-to-back shocking results in a row, thanks for helping to pay rake.
Johnson Wagner $7,700
According to FanShareSports, it seems as though Johnson Wagner is gaining way more traction than he should. He currently has the 12th most tags, likely due to his T5 finish last week at Quicken Loans and his runner up finish at the Greenbrier back in 2013. Diving into his stats, Wagner has gone back-to-back events gaining over 4.5 strokes putting on the field. We all know how variable putting can be, so the likelihood of Wagner continuing his torrid play on the green is low. His price tag is extremely inflated from what we are accustomed to seeing, and there seem to be plenty of people ready to buy high on Wagner. That sounds like a recipe for disaster.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Jimmy Walker $7,800
Jimmy Walker was viewed as a steal last week at the Quicken Loans National and lots of people invested. His price remains the same heading into this week and people are jumping ship after back-to-back missed cuts. With only 10 tags on FanShareSports (two of them being sit calls), Walker is flying under the radar in a field of subpar strength. Walker lost three strokes on the field last week around the green and his putter could not pick up the slack. The greens at Old White TPC are much larger than TPC Potomac, so his struggles chipping should be far less apparent.
Si Woo Kim – $7,600
Si Woo Kim seems to live by the “If you ain’t first, you’re last” motto coined by Ricky Bobby. Kim is the ultimate boom or bust play at this point in his career, showing how ugly it can get last week. His price remains relatively high for the Greenbrier, and after roasting a ton of lineups last week, Kim will be avoided like the plague. If you want winning upside in your GPP lineups, Si Woo has to be considered. He proved with his Players win, he does not need to show any signs of solid form before coming out of nowhere to win.
Luke List – $6,400
Alright Luke, let’s try this again. List was a trendy pick last week, and in hindsight, it definitely was not the move. TPC Potomac ended up playing exactly how the chatter around the golf world figured it would. Tight with tough to hit greens and penalizing areas around the green. That is not the ideal course set up for List. However, Old White TPC course is. With some of the easiest to hit fairways on tour, List can grip it and rip it without worrying about too much trouble. His birdie making ability will keep him in the hunt when this tournament becomes a shootout. Buy low on List when everyone else is looking for a scrub play elsewhere.
Thanks for reading The Greenbrier Classic preview article! You can follow me on Twitter for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!!
by RickRunGood | Jul 3, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, FantasyDraft, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Defending Champ, Danny Lee, will head back to West Virginia to defend his title. This week’s Research Spreadsheet includes:
*NEW* Key Stats – Breakdown and ranking of “Key Stats” for the this tournament, with new scoring system.
*NEW* Last Week – A transparent look into the Key Stats for last week and how the player’s finished.
Past Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, broken down by year.
Historic Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, by totals (since inception – min three appearances)
Recent Performance- Full stats for the L5 years at this tournament and L10 weeks on TOUR.
Full Box Scores –Â All final performance stats for years 2016, 2015 and 2014.
Betting Odds –Â Odds for each player to win top 5 and top 10
DraftKings Salaries, Fanduel Salaries, FantasyDraft Salaries
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, get started below:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
by EPattersonFS | Jun 27, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! I hope everyone had a profitable week last week and jumped about the Jordan Spieth-Daniel Berger stack that could have been played by reading this article alone! Let’s make it back-to-back weeks of solid picks and strategy, even though this week is one of the uglier ones on the schedule.
The touring pros will head to TPC Potomac, just outside of Washington D.C. for the 2017 Quicken Loans National. This event is usually played at Congressional, but this year it is returning to a course that hasn’t hosted a PGA Tour event since the 2006 Booz Allen Classic. The course went through a major overhaul from then to now, so we have zero course history to look at when making our picks. There were however two Web.Com events played at this track in 2012 – Neediest Kids Championship and in 2014 – Mid-Atlantic Championship, so if you want to take a peek at those leaderboards, there are definitely some interesting names to be found.
From what I have heard and read on Twitter, TPC Potomac is a tighter than average Par 70 course, that measures just over 7,100 yards. It will require accuracy off the tee and precise iron play in order to make birdies. Zac Blair mentioned on his Twitter page that the greens are very firm (I believe the D.C. area is going through a dry spell) and that the rough is up. That will put an even greater emphasis on Strokes Gained: Approach, than usual. I am also looking at Strokes Gained:Around the Green, Par 4 Scoring Avg, Birdie or Better %, Bogey Avoidance and Good Drive Percentage.
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Rickie Fowler – $12,000
The top of the board this week is extremely thin. I will sprinkle ownership on all three golfers, but if I had to pick one to build a cash team with or go overweight on, it’s Rickie Fowler. He has just been so damn consistent this season compared to the other options it’s pretty much a no brainer. Fowler is the clear favorite to win this week and is obviously the least likely to miss the cut. If you have to back only one golfer from +$10k, it’s 100% Fowler.
Marc Leishman – $9,800
Marc Leishman is on a roll lately. He has made 10 of his last 11 cuts, and has thrown his name in the mix two of the last three weeks. He leads the field in SG: APP over his last 12 rounds, and his forth in SG:TOT over that same span. Leishman is a perfect place to start building cash lineups, as he will give you the flexibility required to avoid some of the trash that lingers below the $7k mark.
Brendan Steele – $8,900
Brendan Steele once again comes in underpriced given his recent form lately and this season as a whole. He was was $9,000 last week and I was all in. His priced dropped ever so slightly after a T14 at The Travelers, forcing me to double down. Steele ranks 1st in my weighted stat model, ranking inside the top 25 in every stat category I am looking at. His Par 4 scoring average is incredible and he is one of the best ball strikers and scramblers in the field. All in on Steele…again.
Danny Lee – $7,800
Danny Lee will likely be one of the highest owned golfers on the slate, and I am more than okay with that. His form has been incredible as of late, with three top 6 finishes in his last five events. In his last 12 rounds on Par 70 courses, Lee ranks 2nd in this field in SG:TOT. He also ranks 13th in this field in SG:APP. He is underpriced relative to his form and betting odds, which currently sit at 33/1. Love me some Lee this week.
Luke List – $6,900
If you find yourself below the $7k range this week, trying to fill out a stars and scrubs lineup, my first choice would be Luke List. Known as a bomber, List actually thrives on shorter, more accuracy style types of courses. On Par 70 courses with hard to hit fairways, List ranks 5th in the field in SG:T2G over his last 12 rounds. That is a shocking number based on the type of golfer we think Luke List is. Back in 2012, List finished T13 at a Web.com event hosted at TPC Potomac, proving he has what it takes to play well here.
Quicken Loans National Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Russell Henley – $9,200
In a field this weak, finding pivot plays will be crucial to winning a GPP. Let’s start with Russell Henley who is already a winner this year on tour and is getting completely ignored at $9,200. He has the second fewest tags on FanShareSports in the $9k and up range. Have people forgotten about his T27 at the U.S. Open? If TPC Potomac is the accuracy/ball striking course it’s being described as, I think Henley has as good of a shot to win this event than anyone, and he could be less than 5% owned.
Ollie Schniederjans – $8,300
Ollie Schniederjans has taken a few weeks off lately, his last event being the Memorial, and is now not gaining any attention. He has had a solid rookie season, his best finish being at RBC Heritage. If TPC Potomac does play like a Pete Dye designed course, than Ollie seems like a solid fit. He is 13th in SG:APP and 12th in BoB%. Ollie only has eight tags on FanShareSports, and he is priced above one of the most popular golfers this week, Danny Lee. I will not be surprised to see Schniederjans name pop up on the leaderboard when nobody is paying attention.
Harris English – $8,000
Harris English is definitely overpriced, making him a GPP play only. He is however, entering this event with some of the best stats within the last 12 rounds. Over his last 12 rounds, English is second in the field in SG:APP and forth SG:ATG. The results have not been there, but he is still playing some solid golf. His downfall has been his off the tee game, which will likely be neutralized this week if he is forced to keep the driver in the bag. English will not garner any ownership and if he continues his run of solid ball striking, he could win some people some serious money.
Kevin Na – $7,400
Kevin Na is one of the better players in this field and is priced well below what I expected. What helps is that Na is sandwiched between two of the most popular golfers this week, Kim and Streelman, so his $7,400 price tag will not be taken advantage of as much as it should. Na ranks 10th in this field in SG:APP and forth in Par 4 scoring average. This is a great spot to get a golfer who should be chalky a low ownership.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
J.B Holmes – $9,400
J.B. Holmes is coming off a solid performance at the U.S. Open, where he attracted some TV coverage and found himself inside the top 15 at tournament end. Holmes got off to an amazing start to begin the season, and now people will think he is back to his old self. However, Holmes has one of the worst SG:APP stats in this field over the last 12 rounds. Holmes will not be able to spray the ball off the tee at TPC Potomac like he was at Erin Hills. Expect the form we saw from Holmes a few weeks ago to return.
David Hearn – $8,100
This is a tough one for me. Hearn is my Canadian brethren, but this price is out of control. Hearn has shown two weeks of good form and he cracks the $8,000 mark? No thanks. His ownership will likely be fairly low because a lot of DFSers will be thinking along the same page. I would rather take all three Canadians priced below Hearn. Paying for a volatile golfer at his highest value will yield negative results in the long run.
Morgan Hoffman – $7,800
One of the key stats I am looking at this week is SG:APP, something Morgan Hoffman has struggled at all season. He ranks 103 in the field in that category, and 110th in his last 12 rounds. Hoffman’s SG:ATG is also extremely suspect and these two terrible stats could easily lead to a ton of bogeys. The greens will be firm and the rough will be high, making errants shots into the green costly. At $7,800, Morgan Hoffman will not be finding his way onto my rosters.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Justin Thomas – $10,900
Hoo boy did Justin Thomas do a complete 180 last week after his U.S. Open performance. JT did not show up last week at the Travelers and crushed a lot of lineups. Frankly, I am surprised he is teeing it up again – you’d figure some time off would be required. Either way, in this weak field, JT is getting over looked when he is clearly one of the five best players teeing it up. He has the fewest mentions on FanShareSports out of the five highest priced golfers. Everyone seems afraid to roster him after last weeks blow up, which will be a huge mistake come Sunday.
Billy Horschel – $8,800
Erin Hills did not treat Billy Horschel kindly. He drew a considerable amount of attention the week leading up to the U.S. Open and let everyone down. After a week off, a super inflated price and the sour taste left in people’s mouths, Horschel is getting no love. With only eight tags on FanShareSports, Billy Ho will fly under the radar this week. His corollary stats are solid, and his form has been boom or bust. He has a win already this year and came T4 just two tournaments ago. Horschel is definitely worth a few fliers is a field of this caliber.
Byeong Hun An – $8,600
One of the most profitable strategies in DFS is to target players the general public is choosing to ignore because the flame has burnt out. That’s what it seems like is happening with Byeong Hun An this week. He has the eight tags on FanShareSports, this after three straight weeks of 30+ tags. I have said it before and I will say it again, he is an elite ball striker whose achilles heel is is putter. One of these weeks everything will click and An will be in contention on Sunday. I have a feeling this is the week, when everyone has finally given up on him.
Kyle Stanley – $7,600
Stanley was one of the most popular plays last week on DraftKings and didn’t quite come through with his T57 finish. He is now $1,000 cheaper, which is likely keep his ownership relatively high, but I think the general public will be off of Stanley. He is a statistical master, which is something not everyone looks at. He is a fantastic price for a field of this strength and if there is an event he can finally come through in after numerous chances at the top, the Quicken Loans National feels like a perfect fit.
Thanks for reading The Quicken Loans National preview article! You can follow me on Twitter @EPattersonFS for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!!
by Brad Messersmith | Jun 27, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This is what this article series is all about: VALUE! Matt Jones is a player that isn’t being mentioned at all this week and he makes perfect sense at only $6,700. In a field where it’s hard to find players to roster in the $7k range without eating so much chalk you can’t breathe, Jones offers a nice GPP alternative who saves you some salary, has good potential to make the cut and has roughly 100:1 odds to win the tournament this week. The other standout this week is probably one who will indeed be chalky but is probably worth the dry taste in your mouth in Adam Hadwin who comes in with a $6,900 price tag and nearly 70:1 odds to win the tournament. Despite what I expect to be a popular play in Hadwin, I think this is a spot to get a guy who clearly has the game to win the tournament and is as inexpensive as they come in that category.
Click To Enlarge!
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. When it comes to ownership this week, there a few obvious standouts this early on, but you can expect there to be a large snowball effect in which a large percentage of people jump on a few select players causing ownership numbers to inflate quite a bit. My early guesses for ‘Snowball Effect’ candidates are Grayson Murray, Kyle Stanley, and Danny Lee, all of which are playing very solid golf. This doesn’t mean you should avoid them completely because looking elsewhere is a bit daunting this week with such a weak field in play. On the flip side, you might find some value in low ownership among guys like Billy Hurley, Russell Henley and J.B. Holmes, all of which I think make solid GPP plays given their deflated ownership numbers.
Click To Enlarge!
Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. There are a couple of very interesting names that show up on the OWGR chart this week that I plan on sliding into some GPP lineups without question. Adam Hadwin was mentioned earlier and the same holds true, but Wesley Bryan, and Si-Woo Kim make for an interesting discussion. Wes Bryan is one of the most skilled up-and-coming golfers in the world, which makes him a class golfer in this field save for a few names. Bryan has been slumping a bit since he nabbed his first win on tour a couple months ago, but look for him to bounce back at some point, and why not on a second shot course that should suit his game perfectly. The course fit narratives ring true for Si-Woo Kim as well, and as the 29th ranked golfer in the world I think the class golfer narratives works as well. With the upside needed to win this tournament if he’s on, Si-Woo is one that makes perfect sense in my mind.
Click To Enlarge!
Quicken Loans National Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
by RickRunGood | Jun 26, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, FantasyDraft, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Defending Champ, Billy Hurley, will head to Potomac, MD to defend his title. This week’s Research Spreadsheet includes:
*NEW* Key Stats – Breakdown and ranking of “Key Stats” for the this tournament, with new scoring system.
*NEW* Last Week – A transparent look into the Key Stats for last week and how the player’s finished.
Past Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, broken down by year.
Historic Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, by totals (since inception – min three appearances)
Recent Performance- Full stats for the L5 years at this tournament and L10 weeks on TOUR.
Full Box Scores –Â All final performance stats for years 2016, 2015 and 2014.
Betting Odds –Â Odds for each player to win top 5 and top 10
DraftKings Salaries, Fanduel Salaries, FantasyDraft Salaries
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, get started below:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
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