2024 Season Long Fantasy Primer

by Andy Lack | Dec 26, 2023 | Final DFS Thoughts | 0 comments

The 2024 golf season is upon us! I spent last week breaking down one and done strategy, an incredibly popular game for golf fans. Another emerging format that we have devoted energy to covering at RickRunGood is season long fantasy. PGA Tour season long fantasy is not all that dissimilar from NFL fantasy, and golf is actually rather conducive to this format. Just like in football, eight to 12 man leagues are a popular starting point. Each team will typically draft 10-16 players, and start six to eight for every event of the 2024 PGA Tour season, which runs from the Sentry Tournament of Champions to the FedEx Cup playoffs.

As I wrote about in the One and Done article, not all PGA Tour events are created equally, and it’s paramount to identify players who are automatically qualified for the Signature Events, the biggest money makers. The LIV element also adds another wrinkle. Jon Rahm will only be available for four events this year, the majors. But he’s also Jon Rahm. The recent LIV defect will still be under 20/1 at all majors, and even if he earns around a million dollar or two dollars combined through those four events, he still could be more profitable than a middle of the road Tour player. Slotting where to select the LIV players was undeniably the most challenging aspect of this exercise. Outside of LIV, it’s also important to be cognizant of what players are eligible for each events. In my rankings, I laid out the eligibility of every player.

• Top 125: Entry into most regular events and the PLAYERS Championship
• Top 70: Qualified for the 2023 FedEx Cup Playoffs, but not exempt into every Signature Event in 2024
• Top 50: Eligible for all Signature Events in 2024
• Top 30: Exempt into all tournaments before the Playoffs except the PGA Championship
• Top 30 (2022): Only Aaron Wise, who is fully exempt through 2024 for reaching the 2022 Tour Championship
• Multi-year: Winners prior to 2022-2023 who didn’t finish inside the top-125 of the FedEx Cup last year, but still have fully exempt status
• Non-member top-125: Min Woo Lee and Nicolai Hojgaard. Fully exempt members
• DPWT: 2023 DP World Tour Race to Dubai Top-10. Fully exempt members
• KFT (Rookies): Korn Ferry Tour graduates (30 golfers)
• Q-School: PGA Tour Qualifying School (5 golfers)
• Conditional: Numbers 126-150 in the 2022-2023 FedEx Cup

Also, I added their Data Golf Ranking, a far more accurate hierarchy at this point than the OWGR. Without further ado, here is my 2024 Season Long Fantasy Top 100 Draft Guide.

1. Scottie Scheffler (27 YO, Top 30, DG: 1)
2. Viktor Hovland (26 YO, Top 30, DG: 2)
3. Rory McIlroy (34 YO, Top 30, DG: 3)
4. Patrick Cantlay (31 YO, Top 30, DG: 7)
5. Collin Morikawa (26 YO, Top 30, DG: 4)
6. Justin Thomas (30 YO, Top 125, DG: 20)
7. Ludvig Aberg (24 YO, Top 125, DG: 13)
8. Xander Schauffele (30 YO, Top 30, DG: 5)
9. Max Homa (33 YO, Top 30, DG: 8)
10. Matt Fitzpatrick (29 YO, Top 30, DG: 12)
11. Tyrrell Hatton (32 YO, Top 30, DG: 11)
12. Jordan Spieth (30 YO, Top 30, DG: 18)
13. Sam Burns (27 YO, Top 30, DG: 22)
14. Cameron Young (26 YO, Top 50, DG: 34)
15. Tom Kim (21 YO, Top 30, DG: 14)
16. Tony Finau (34 YO, Top 30: DG: 21)
17. Tommy Fleetwood (32 YO, Top 30: DG: 9)
18. Will Zalatoris (27 YO, Multi-year, DG: 44)
19. Min Woo Lee (25 YO, Non-member 125, DG: 19)
20. Sungjae Im (25 YO, Top 30, DG: 17)
21. Rickie Fowler (35 YO, Top 30, DG: 24)
22. Sahith Theegala (26 YO, Top 50, DG: 40)
23. Hideki Matsuyama (31 YO, Top 50, DG: 39)
24. Wyndham Clark (30 YO, Top 30, DG: 38)
25. Corey Conners (31 YO, Top 30, DG: 29)
26. Cam Davis (28 YO, Top 50, DG: 37)
27. Russell Henley (34 YO, Top 30, DG: 10)
28. Keegan Bradley (37 YO, Top 30, DG: 23)
29. Jason Day (36 YO, Top 30, DG: 35)
30. Shane Lowry (36 YO, Top 125, DG: 33)
31. Brian Harman (36 YO, Top 30, DG: 16)
32. Eric Cole (35 YO, Top 50, DG: 15)
33. Sepp Straka (30 YO, Top 30, DG: 27)
34. Akshay Bhatia (21 YO, Top 125, DG: 113)
35. Si Woo Kim (28 YO, Top 30, DG: 64)
36. Denny McCarthy (30 YO, Top 50, DG: 26)
37. Kurt Kitayama (30 YO, Top 50, DG: 109)
38. Adam Scott (43 YO, Top 125, DG: 32)
39. Justin Rose (43 YO, Top 50, DG: 41)
40. Harris English (34 YO, Top 50, DG: 51)
41. Billy Horschel (37 YO, Top 50, DG: 86)
42. J.T. Poston (30 YO, Top 50, DG: 25)
43. Stephan Jaeger (34 YO, Top 70, DG: 58)
44. Emiliano Grillo (31 YO, Top 30, DG: 80)
45. Adam Hadwin (36 YO, Top 50, DG: 61)
46. Tom Hoge (34 YO, Top 50, DG: 127)
47. Nick Taylor (35 YO, Top 30, DG: 72)
48. Adam Schenk (31 YO, Top 30, DG: 56)
49. Taylor Moore (30 YO, Top 30, DG: 111)
50. Alex Smalley (27 YO, Top 70, DG: 108)
51. Lucas Glover (44 YO, Top 30, DG: 59)
52. Jon Rahm (29 YO, LIV, DG: 6)
53. Bryson DeChambeau (28 YO, LIV, DG: 28)
54. Brooks Koepka (33 YO, LIV, DG: 43)
55. Vincent Norrman (26 YO, Top 70, DG: 81)
56. Byeong Hun An (32 YO, Top 50, DG: 50)
57. Adam Svensson (30 YO, Top 50, DG: 52)
58. Justin Suh (26 YO, Top 125, DG: 94)
59. Gary Woodland (39 YO, Top 125, DG: 89)
60. Alex Noren (41 YO, Top 125, DG: 53)
61. Chris Kirk (38 YO, Top 50, DG: 65)
62. Nicolai Hojgaard (22 YO, Non-member Top 125, DG: 31)
63. Adrian Meronk (30 YO, DPWT, DG: 75)
64. Ryan Fox (36 YO, DPWT, DG: 74)
65. Chris Gotterup (24 YO, Rookie, DG: 137)
66. Aaron Rai (28 YO, Top 70, DG: 60)
67. Keith Mitchell (31 YO, Top 70, DG: 126)
68. Seamus Power (36 YO, Top 50, DG: 161)
69. Thomas Detry (30 YO, Top 70, DG: 102)
70. J.J. Spaun (33 YO, Top 70, DG: 54)
71. Erik Van Rooyen (33 YO, Top 125, DG: 128)
72. Cameron Smith (30 YO, LIV, DG: 36)
73. Taylor Pendrith (32 YO, Top 125, DG: 116)
74. Austin Eckroat (24 YO, Top 125, DG: 118)
75. Davis Riley (27 YO, Top 70, DG: 159)
76. Beau Hossler (28 YO, Top 70, DG: 42)
77. Brandon Wu (26 YO, Top 70, DG: 157)
78. Adrien Dumont De Chassart (23 YO, Rookie, DG: 167)
79. Maverick McNealy (28 YO, Major Medical, DG: 163)
80. Andrew Putnam (34 YO, Top 50, DG: 50)
81. Ben Griffin (27 YO, Top 70, DG: 82)
82. K.H. Lee (32 YO, Top 125, DG: 136)
83. Robert MacIntyre (27 YO, DPWT, DG: 197)
84. Luke List (38 YO, Top 125, DG: 71)
85. Patrick Rodgers (31 YO, Top 50, DG: 79)
86. Davis Thompson (24 YO, Top 125, DG: 115)
87. Pierceson Coody (23 YO, Rookie, DG: 401)
88. Brendon Todd (38 YO, Top 50, DG: 55)
89. Mark Hubbard (34 YO, Top 70, DG: 87)
90. Aaron Wise (27 YO, Top 30- 2022, DG: NR)
91. Matt Kuchar (45 YO, Top 70, DG: 76)
92. Ryo Hisatsune (21 YO, Rookie, DG: 95)
93. Mackenzie Hughes (33 YO, Top 50, DG: 90)
94. Parker Coody (23 YO, Rookie, DG: 250)
95. Lucas Herbert (28 YO, Multi-year, DG: 106)
96. Taylor Montgomery (28 YO, Top 70, DG: 99)
97. Dustin Johnson (39 YO, LIV, DG: 48)
98. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (29 YO, Top 125, DG: 63)
99. Ben Kohles (33 YO, Rookie, DG: 69)
100. Thorbjorn Olesen (34 YO, DPWT, DG: 70)

Honorable Mentions: Nicholas Lindheim, Sam Ryder, Lee Hodges, Joaquin Niemann, Patrick Reed, Nick Hardy, Matthew NeSmith, S.H. Kim, Jacob Bridgeman, Alejandro Tosti

Happy drafting – AL

The Six Rules of One and Done

by Andy Lack | Dec 18, 2023 | Final DFS Thoughts | 0 comments

With the 2024 golf season right around the corner, let’s dive into one of my favorite investment formats for the PGA Tour: One and Done. For anyone new to this, one and done is a season long contest in which you pick one golfer per tournament. However much money that golfer makes in that event is credited towards your tally. For example, if you select Scottie Scheffler at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, and he happens to win, you earn $2.7 million. Not a bad start. The catch-22 is that you can no longer pick Scheffler in any tournament for the rest of the year. That’s where the strategy comes in. Every tournament of the year, you have the opportunity to pick one golfer, but you can never pick the same golfer twice. The entry with the most total money at the end of the season wins.

There are a few key pieces to keep in mind with this format that will automatically give you a leg up over the rest of the field. Let’s break it down.

1. Pay attention to the purses 

I know this sounds incredibly obvious, but most would be surprised at which tournaments are actually worth the most money. For example, last year, the Players Championship had a purse of $4.5 million, almost a full million higher than the U.S. Open. The Players is undeniably the most important week of the season for One and Done. You could totally whiff on the first three months of the season, but if you nail the Players, your season will be immediately revived. For what it’s worth, the WM Phoenix Open, the Genesis Invitational, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the RBC Heritage, Wells Fargo Invitational, Travelers Championship, and FedEx St. Jude’s Championship all have larger purses than both the PGA Championship and Open Championship. That’s right, signature events are more important in One and Done than the majors. 

Field size is important to consider as well. For example, the Sentry Tournament of Champions has a purse of 2.7 million, but only a field of 40 players, and they all make the cut. Breaking it down, the dollar per player at the Sentry is $67,500. The PGA Championship on the other had, has a purse of $3.15 million, and 65 players make the cut. Thus, the dollar per player at PGA Championship is $48,461. Yes, the Sentry, a signature event with a smaller purse than the PGA Championship, is actually the more valuable tournament.

2. Use your studs early 

The biggest mistake you can make in one and is not utilizing all the elite players at your disposal by the end of the season. What a waste. One truth that has been proven time and again is that our opinions on players will dramatically change over the course of the year. For example, Lucas Glover was not an option that any rational one and done player would have considered for the vast majority of the season. Yet Glover caught fire towards the end of the year, and he became an entirely viable option in the FedEx Cup playoffs. In fact, I’m sure that some folks smartly opted for the hot hand with Glover in Memphis over the player that they had originally mapped out for that event. The first half of the season is front loaded with elevated events anyway, which we have already established are more important than the majors. 

Think about it this way too. There are 33 events in the regular season. If we think about the 33 best players on the PGA Tour, we should rarely have to venture outside of this pool. Writing out a list of these players may provide useful insight in terms of the caliber of guy that we should be limiting ourselves to on a week to week basis. It’s fairly challenging to predict a player’s schedule, but the farthest I would go would be to think about the types of players that always play in the weaker field events. For example, Jordan Spieth always plays the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial. This event rarely attracts a great field, but it’s become a comfortable spot for Spieth over the the years. For this reason, I’d think twice about utilizing Spieth at signature events unless you feel incredibly strongly about it, considering our prior knowledge that he will possess more win equity at the Charles Schwab Challenge. I use the Spieth example because it’s a foregone conclusion that he will play this event, but do not expect a player such as Cameron Young to play the John Deere Classic just because he did last year, or Justin Thomas to play the Rocket Mortgage again either. Those were circumstantial decisions for Young and Thomas based on their position in the FedEx Cup and Ryder Cup standings, which brings us to rule number three.

3. Be malleable with your priors 

While it’s important to keep in mind opportunities such as Spieth at Colonial, I strongly disagree with the concept of mapping out who to play at every course based on prior performance. The reason for this is two-fold. Current form is far too large a part of the equation for us to pigeonhole the best spots for players months in advance. Week to week trends are incredibly valuable, and one we should prioritize, often over course history. For example, even if we had Spieth mapped out for Colonial, be pliable enough to recognize the full context. What if Spieth is struggling tremendously with his middle to short irons, which Colonial places an extreme emphasis on? If we can notice that in the short term data, we should not stubbornly stick to our priors. Just because the Cowboys have owned the Giants over the last half decade, circumstances change if they are playing poor football or are stricken with injuries. I disagree with the concept of an “auto-bet” in all sports, and we should operate similarly in one and done. Context is king, and in my experience, recent form should still be prioritized over course history. Even if Spieth is playing poorly and you have saved him for Colonial, there will always be a pivot option, which speaks to the value of modeling on a week to week basis. While you may have players earmarked for certain spots, it’s inevitable that you will feel differently about them when the week actually arrives. There is no need to be stubborn in this format. What if you had Viktor Hovland penciled in for the PGA Championship at Valhalla based on his course fit, but he wins the Masters. There’s no rule that says you still need to play him at the PGA if you don’t expect him to win back-to-back majors, a very rare feat in golf history. I cannot emphasize this enough, malleability on your priors is essential.

4. Trust the books 

I’ve tracked this closely over the half decade that I’ve been playing one and done, and there is very little value in ever venturing past the top of the board. Don’t get cute. Unless you are completely disregarding the first three rules, there will always be a player available to you under 40/1. I’ve had good one and done seasons and bad ones, but I’ve rarely been in a situation where I need to venture past 40/1 unless I’ve done something stupid. You may not like that option, but unless you have an incredibly strong inclination that he is a bad play based on your modeling, trust the implied win probability that the books have laid out. Coming from someone who is incredibly reliant on his modeling, even I am open-minded enough to recognize that while my numbers may see cause for concern, there is still a reason why he’s one of the tournament favorites. Are there times when I go with my numbers and choose a player at 35/1 even if I have options available at 20/1? Absolutely, but I would highly advise against going too off the grid in this format. It’s simply unnecessary. In this format, the implied win probability that a sports book sets is your friend.

5. When in doubt, go with the less popular option 

One and done is fun because there is still an element of game theory to consider. It’s not quite as much game theory dependent as a regular DraftKings contest, but you are still playing against other people, as opposed to a sports book. When other people are involved, one must always consider game theory. DraftKings ownership is usually a strong indicator of who will be popular in one done as well. I would not pivot simply for the sake of pivoting, but it’s still essential to consider that a lower owned player’s success is going to vault you up higher in the standings. On most weeks, if I’m having a difficult time choosing, I’ll let ownership be a tiebreaker. Following a hard and fast rule of selecting the lowest owned player in DraftKings ownership every week under 40/1 is an interesting thought experiment, and a strategy I believe far more valuable than others. Of course, that player may have the lowest ownership for a good reason. Thus, as I alluded to earlier, I would not follow any stringent guidelines with this, but there is merit to the general concept.

6. Play your position, but don’t get too wild 

Playing your position in a one and done contest is crucial. If you happen to be close to the top of the rankings, a more conservative approach feels more sensible. A safer options to maintain your lead over the majority of the field is always your friend. On the other hand, if you are very behind the eight ball, a more practical approach may be to utilize unpopular players. If you happen to be correct on an unpopular option, the payoff will be far greater, and you will hop more entries in the standings. Even if you need to make up ground later in the season, I would still not venture too far down the odds board. Ownership, not odds, should always be your first look. Most weeks, you’ll always be able to find a player with low ownership that the books still believe possess a great deal of win equity. The only reason to play long shots in this format is because no one else does it, yet nearly always, there will be a player available to you close to the top of the odds board that is being neglected by other entries.

Finally, don’t start taking shots too early! Folks always seem to underestimate how many chances they have and how much money is at stake with the elevated events. I wouldn’t even begin to panic about your position on the leaderboard until after the Players. Even that may be a bit shortsighted. If you are still towards the bottom of the leaderboard by the time the Open Championship rolls along, I can understand a more high-risk approach. Yet the name of the game in one and done is restraint and consistency. Hundreds of players will forget to put their entries in during the opening months. You are already at an advantage from a purely common sense and due diligence standpoint. Hopefully these concepts will further help you on your path to glory.

Hero World Challenge Final Thoughts

by Andy Lack | Nov 29, 2023 | Final DFS Thoughts | 0 comments

The 2023 Hero World Challenge Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS, and is the type of finding small edge that over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

With no real wave split, and fairly consistent wind forecasts in the morning and afternoon both days, I wouldn’t spend any oxygen making decision choices based on weather conditions.

Core Four

• Scottie Scheffler, $10,700 (Projected ownership: 45.1%): Let’s get this out of the way off the bat. This week is for the real ones. I’m confused as to why they DraftKings didn’t decide on captains this week in a field of 20, especially when we were given captains recently in a field of 24 at the Ryder Cup. There are still ways to build unique lineups, but you’re going to need to get creative. I would certainly argue in favor of leaving money on the table, although I don’t see the need to leave more than say… $1.5K? I do believe there is (comparatively speaking) opportunity with Scottie Scheffler. I mean that mainly in the context of Viktor Hovland, who I have coming in around a full ten percentage points higher than Scheffler. On the heels of a FedEx Cup win, multiple strong performances at majors, and an unbelievable Ryder Cup, I certainly understand why he is attracting more attention than Scheffler. Add in the fact that he has won this tournament twice in a row, and it should not come as a surprise that he will be in upwards of 50% of lineups. With that being said, it’s not like Scheffler has been chopped liver at this course. The former Masters champion finished runner-up to Hovland in each of the last two years, and has proven himself to be a near equal threat at this golf course. Scheffler ranks second in this field in good drive percentage, first in this field in proximity inside 100 yards, and first in this proximity from 175-200 yards. My numbers still suggest that Scheffler is a better player and safer option. At lower ownership, this is an easy one.

• Rickie Fowler, $8,000 (Projected ownership: 30.5%): Coming off a disappointing Ryder Cup where he was essentially benched (or sick?), the Rickie Fowler stock has hit a bit of a lull. I certainly have little faith in Fowler on the biggest stage as well, but isn’t this week the antithesis of that? The six-time PGA Tour winner has already shown his affinity for the laidback vibes this week, with four top-fives in five appearances at this event, including a win in 2017. Fowler remains one of the best players in this field from 175 yards plus, and he has been lethal on and around Bermuda greens of late as well. As much as I love Justin Thomas this week, I’ve got Fowler close to twenty percentage points lower in ownership. That’s downright irresponsible. Fowler was a better golfer than Thomas in all aspects in 2023, and two top-five finishes at the Fortinet and Nedbank Golf Challenge are doing a lot of legwork in the argument for why Thomas should be demonstratively higher owned and higher priced. From a DraftKings perspective, the value lies completely with Fowler, who won’t have to deal with the Tiger circus early in the week either.

• Tony Finau, $7,600 (Projected ownership: 32.5%) : Similar to Fowler, sentiment on Tony Finau feels pretty low right now. Since a victory in Mexico over six months ago, the six-time PGA Tour winner has recorded just one top-10 in 11 starts. With that being said, he’s had some time away from competitive golf (depending on how you feel about the Netflix Cup), and the low-key vibe should be just what the doctor ordered for an ailing Finau looking to turn the page on a new season. In a vacuum, I love the former Mexico Open champion’s fit at Albany, which has a lot in common with Vidanta Vallarta, as previously discussed in the course preview. Finau has already recorded three top-sevens in four appearances at this track, including a runner-up in 2018 in his first appearance. Ownership will be in check as well. At one point a DFS darling, I haven’t seen much Finau chatter in our community in months.

• Justin Rose, $6,900 (Projected ownership: 31.1%): I almost thought about rolling the dice with Will Zalatoris in this spot. He did shoot a 63 at his home course and recently recorded a 178 ball-speed after all. I say that tongue in cheek, as expectations should still be quelled on any player coming off major injury. Even at what may be slightly higher ownership, Justin Rose just feels like a far safer play. The Bahamas resident has a sneaky great record at the Hero, with three top-fives in his last four appearances. I’d much rather go to battle with players who have established a routine at this event and possess a worthy track record, as opposed to the multiple players (Bradley, Zalatoris, Day, Harman, Glover) in the $6K range with a negligible track record/experience at Albany.

Chalk Report

• $10K: There are four players in the $10K range this week, but Viktor Hovland and Scottie Scheffler deserve their own conversation. I have Hovland coming in at 53%, and Scheffler coming in at 45%. That’s a bit too much of a discrepancy for me, and I’ve already discussed my reasons for favoring the latter over the former. There is a sizable drop in both price and ownership before we get to Max Homa and Collin Morikawa at the bottom of this range, which is warranted. Hovland and Scheffler should be thought of in a tier of their own. Rarely do we encounter a situation where the best two players in this field from a skill perspective also possess the strongest course history. Homa and Morikawa are still both worthy of their price, and neither is carrying exorbitant ownership. I have Homa coming in at 38.5%, and Morikawa at 35%. My hunch is that most folks recognize the talent gap as well, and find a way to incorporate Scheffler or Hovland (or both), only to differentiate elsewhere. Due to the generous pricing, I don’t mind jamming a Morikawa or Homa in with Scheffler or Hovland, and taking your chances elsewhere in the $6K range.

• $9K: Only Matt Fitzpatrick occupies the $9K range this week, and I have him coming in at a paltry 30.5%. Fitzpatrick is on a bit of an island, as there is no player within $500 dollars of him in either direction. I have so many questions for whoever was in charge of pricing at DraftKings this week, and while I don’t love Fitzpatrick’s course fit here, I imagine there will be many who have room for Fitzpatrick and utilize him solely based on the fear of leaving too much money on the table. In a vacuum, I simply prefer Cameron Young and Justin Thomas on this golf course.

• $8K: Only three players occupy the $8K range, with Justin Thomas standing out as far and away the most popular option. I have Thomas coming in at around 49%, Fowler at 30.5%, and Cameron Young at 24%. As much as I love JT’s chances this week, it’s difficult to make the case that he is double as likely to outperform Young this week, who did finish third at this event last year in his own right, and is a wonderful course fit. Young and Fowler both present super intriguing options in my opinion, and both outweigh the option of paying up for Fitzpatrick from a course history and fit standpoint.

• $7K: There are a couple intriguing choices in the $7K range, and I’d argue that Sam Burns at $7,100 is a little too cheap. I’ve got Burns coming in at 30%, right with Finau, and Jordan Spieth and Wyndham Clark trailing by at least five percentage points in ownership. I want no part of Spieth at this event, who has finished in the bottom five each of the last three years. He’s been battling a wrist injury after the Ryder Cup, and we haven’t seen him in competitive action since he was virtually unplayable at Marco Simone. I’m lukewarm on Wyndham Clark too, who will be making his first appearance at this event. Burns, who almost won here two years ago, and the aforementioned Finau, are both my preferred options.

• $6K: The $6K range is most plentiful this week, with eight options spanning from Justin Rose to Lucas Glover. I’ve already mentioned that Rose is my favorite of this group, and Will Zalatoris would be the other playable option. I don’t feel great about any of the others, but I’ll rank in terms of preference:
  • Sepp Straka, $6,700 (26.0%)
  • Jason Day, $6,500 (21.0%)
  • Keegan Bradley, $6,800 (22.5%)
  • Lucas Glover, $6,000 (21.5%)
  • Brian Harman, $6,400 (28.5%)
  • Tiger Woods, $6,100 (12.5%)

Is Tiger Woods playable this week? I actually think so. I’ve got him as the lowest owned player on the slate, and he’s looked healthy all week. It’s the Hero World Challenge after all, one of the the flattest and easiest walks that Woods will be faced with all year. The 15-time major winner is at least ten percentage points lower than any other player in this range, and only Justin Rose has ever recorded a top-10 at this event. It’s still a genuine risk based on the withdrawal potential. No matter what he says in a press conference, Tiger is always live to withdraw if something in his body acts up throughout the week. That’s why from a DFS perspective, it’s hard to advocate for him over any of the regular PGA Tour pros with dozens of competitive reps under their belt in the last calendar year. Maybe the best way to utilize Tiger is in showdown, where you can alleviate a bit of the full tournament withdrawal risk.

Best of luck this week – AL

RSM Classic Final Thoughts

by Andy Lack | Nov 15, 2023 | Final DFS Thoughts | 0 comments

The 2023 RSM Classic Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS, and is the type of finding small edge that over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

Any time the potential for rain delays enter the mix, wave advantages turn into a complete guessing game. It’s supposed to rain pretty much all of Thursday morning and early afternoon. Whether PGA Tour officials will allow play to continue through this remains to be seen. Assuming that there are no delays, I would want my players on the course as late on Friday as possible. Friday afternoon looks objectively easier than Friday morning in terms of wind, and for what it’s worth, Thursday morning appears less windy than Thursday afternoon. With that being said, tee times are all clustered between 7:00 AM and 10:00 AM on either course, so it’s really more about playing a course advantage than a time advantage. The Plantation course is generally an easier test, and is less exposed to the wind. I’d argue that Friday is a better time to play that course. 7:00 AM to 11:00 AM on Friday looks like a pretty tough pocket. Even with lower wind gusts on Thursday however, players will face some moisture. This one is really tough. If I had a choice, I’d try and get as many players in the Seaside/Plantation wave as possible. Yet I’m not willing to pivot at the top to do so.

Core Four

• Brian Harman, $10,300 (Projected ownership: 17.8%): Similar to last week, I’m struggling at the top here and I wish the $10K range was a little beefier. Folks should be forced to make a tougher decision on under-priced players such as Corey Conners, Russell Henley, Eric Cole, and Denny McCarthy. Instead all four of those players are carrying moderate to significant ownership at their price point, and it’s not like the three players in the $10K range are going to be neglected either. How does this bring me to Brian Harman? I’m not quite sure. I do believe that this golf course largely de-values what Ludvig Aberg and Cameron Young do best. That does not mean that they can’t blow the doors off everyone and still win. They are the best two players in the field. Yet the advantage they have over everyone else in this field is negligible compared to the one they would have at a track like Torrey Pines, Bay Hill, or Riviera. I struggle to pay up for those players on this specific golf course. Instead, I’ll turn my attention to the other player in the $10K range that I actually believe is being a touch disrespected. We are just a few months removed from Harman winning a major by six strokes, looking rock solid at the Ryder Cup, and he now returns to a golf course where he practices at and finished runner-up at last year. Remind me again why exactly he is cheaper than Young and Ludvig in this event? In DFS, you’ve got to play the golf course, not simply choose the best players. I’ve made a career out of the concept that golf courses matter, and on this golf course, Harman’s elite putting and comfortability is going to translate easier than Young and Aberg’s elite driving and long iron play. Harman ranks second in this entire field on short courses over the past two years, and he continues to raise his baseline on accuracy driven golf courses with a high greens in regulation percentage that allow his putter to get to work. Considering price, course fit, and ownership, this is the only direction I can look at the top.

• J.T. Poston, $9,300 (Projected ownership: 16.5%): My love for J.T. Poston this week has already been well documented, and the biggest argument for his inclusion here over other strong course fits such as Russell Henley and Corey Conners (outside of ownership) is reps. I love the fact that Poston has already played this Fall swing, whereas Henley and Conners’ last foray into competitive golf came in August. The fact that Poston was in contention to win and ultimately finished 3rd at the Shriners is just bonus. He did look sharp as ever however, gaining over five strokes putting and five strokes on approach. Dating back to the end of last year, this was the fourth time in five starts where Poston has gained over five strokes on approach. Poston has always been an incredibly strong putter, but his development into one of the best iron players on Tour was a surprise. Judging by his result at the Shriners, there’s no evidence of a slowdown, and now he travels to a golf course that fits his skill-set to a tee. Poston finished 21st in this event last year, gaining 4.6 strokes ball-striking over three rounds, and similar to Harman, he is one of the biggest risers in this entire field on short courses. Again, play the golf course, not the talent. I’m starting my lineups this week with two of the three best short course players in this entire field, and I feel wonderful about it. Over-confidence in PGA DFS often leads to disaster, but I can rest easy in my rationale for Poston in this spot, who also ranks top-15 in opportunities gained and birdies or better gained. It’s time the Postman delivered on PGA Tour victory number three.

• Alex Smalley, $8,000 (Projected ownership: 9.0%): I loved Alex Smalley last week in Bermuda, but I passed in DraftKings due to exorbitant ownership. He rewarded owners with a satisfactory 30th-place finish. Nothing really to write home about, but I was highly encouraged by his Sunday 65, his best of the event by three strokes. Now he travels to a golf course where he finished fifth last year, at an extremely palatable price and ownership number. Ranking second in opportunities gained, Smalley continues to under-perform based on the birdie looks that he generates for himself. That is largely due to the fact that he is a very inconsistent putter, but he is also one of the biggest risers on Bermuda-grass. Playing college golf at Duke, Smalley played on this type of agronomy all the time, and it shows. Seven of the 10 best putting performances of his career have all come on Bermuda. My only concern is whether the putter can do enough work to really keep up in a true birdie-fest, but the weather actually looks rather dicey this week, and I would not be shocked if we see tougher than average scoring conditions. This plays into Smalley’s hands even further, who remains one of the premier ball-strikers in this field. I have long been awaiting the elusive first PGA Tour victory from the man who made me quit college golf to justify that decision. This could be the week.

• Matthew NeSmith, $7,000 (Projected ownership: 3.3%): Matthew NeSmith is the type of player that is perpetually over-owned at this event due to his course fit and Sea Island ties. Yet the NeSmith discourse appears to be muted this week, despite his two top-15 finishes already at this track. NeSmith is also coming off a rock solid 15th at the Zozo Championship, and prior to that, he finished 42nd at the Shriners and 25th at the Sanderson Farms. Not bad. The formula to succeed at the RSM is simple. I’m looking for in form wedge players with strong course history. NeSmith checks all of those boxes with flying colors. Elite accuracy is a more of a luxury than necessity at Sea Island, but it also doesn’t hurt that NeSmith is the number one player in this entire field in good drive percentage. Even with magnanimous fairways, Sea Island ranks second on the PGA Tour in fraction of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke. We needn’t not worry about that challenge of the course with NeSmith. It’s really all going to come down to his putter here, and no, he does not need a lights out putting week to pay off price. His ball-striking should be more than enough to carry him through the weekend, and if we find ourselves on the right side of some putt luck, he’s one of the few players in the low sevens with real upside to win this thing. There are far worse ways to spend ten dollars than the 150/1’s that are still hanging on this under-valued member of Sea Island mafia.

Chalk Report

• $10K: Only Ludvig Aberg, Cameron Young, and Brian Harman populate the $10K range this week. I have ownership as follows: Aberg (25%), Young (13.5%), Harman (18%). I’ve already discussed how I believe that based on course fit, price, and ownership, Harman is the best option of the bunch. Yet if you are inclined to take a flier on Young here, the ownership number is low enough where I can’t really argue against it. I’m all in on the talent of Ludvig long-term, but I do think we are beginning to put the cart before the horse here. He’s now frequently the highest priced and highest owned player on the slate, and no one seems to bat an eyelash. I can get behind that on certain golf courses, but not at Sea Island.

• $9K: I really think DraftKings screwed up this week, and the $9K range is evidence. There should always be 12 players above $9K in my opinion to facilitate some form of decision process at the top. This week there are only 10 players above $9K, and only three above $10K. The result of that is three players in the $9K that I believe will easily cross 20%. I have Corey Conners at 26.5%, coming in as the highest currently on the slate. Eric Cole and Russell Henley are not far behind at 23% and 22%, respectively. I love all three players this week, but I will only be going to battle with one. Be weary of a Ludvig-Conners, Ludvig-Henley, Ludvig-Cole start, as well as a Conners-Henley, Conners-Cole start. You’re not sneaking up on anyone with that one. J.T. Poston (16.5%) and Alex Noren (14.5%) occupy the middle tier, followed by Si Woo Kim (12.5%), and the over-priced Justin Suh (8.5%). My favorites of that group are Poston and Noren. I’m struggling to understand how Suh is more expensive than the likes of Kuchar, Jaeger, McCarthy, Svensson, Todd, and Horschel. Even at low ownership, that’s an easy pass. No strong opinion on Si Woo Kim here either.

• $8K: The top of this range is really strong, and if I was in charge of pricing, I would have had at least two of these players in the low nines. I think I’m going to keep riding a confident Matt Kuchar at 10% on a golf course that fits his skill-set to a tee. It would be fairly hilarious if this the week that Stephan Jaeger breaks through. I’m finally not betting him, but he’s still in my DraftKings pools. I’ve got him at a very modest 12.5%. Denny McCarthy and Adam Svensson, who I would have both nominated for the $9K range, will come in at 15.5% and 15% respectively. Both are really solid plays in my opinion. Brendon Todd looks to be the most popular in this range at 16.5%, and I can’t argue with it one bit. It’s a fair price. The bottom of the eights isn’t terrible either. I’ll rank in terms of preference:
  • Alex Smalley, $8,000 (9.0%)
  • Keith Mitchell, $8,200 (11%)
  • J.J. Spaun, $8,000 (7.5%)
  • Billy Horschel, $8,400 (11.5%)
  • Akshay Bhatia, $8,100 (11.5%)
  • Luke List, $8,300 (10.5%)

I’ve already discussed my interest in Smalley, and Cashmere Keith and J.J. Spaun are under strong consideration for the pool as well. I think I’ll be riding four guys in this range: Kuchar, Jaeger, Mitchell or Spaun, and Smalley. Denny and Svensson are tough cuts.

• $7K: A lot to talk about here. The groupthink isn’t as disgusting as I would have expected. I don’t see anyone sneaking towards 20%, but I would be very weary of model darling Chesson Hadley, who I have coming in at 15%. A few of the other players that I have in the double digits include Davis Thompson (10%) and Mark Hubbard (10%). There are a ton of players between seven and nine percent, and I’m sure one or two of them will eventually get there. This group includes Chris Kirk, Harris English, Taylor Pendrith, and Ben Griffin. I’m a big fan of Kirk, Pendrith, and Griffin this week. I’d argue that Pendrith is the most under-priced player on the slate, and Hubbard should be more expensive as well. Speaking of under-priced, I’ve got a ton of interest in Adam Schenk and Doug Ghim as well. Both fall-swing favorites that we have a nice opportunity to buy the dip on. Sam Ryder and Matthew NeSmith at the bottom are both incredibly playable as well.

• $6K: There are actually a lot of good options down here that I have some real interest in, and none of them will be over-owned. Currently, I don’t have a single player sneaking past the five percent threshold, which would be the counter-argument to too few players being priced above $9K. Based on many players in the high eights being under-priced, many folks are finishing their lineups in the sevens instead of the high sixes. I’m a huge fan of Greyson Sigg and Ben Martin this week. That is some real gold right there. Column favorites Carson Young and Kevin Yu will also get one more shot before we flip the calendar to 2024, and it brings me great joy to say this, but Doc Redman (one of the earliest players I fell in love with when I first started playing DFS) is finally playable again.

Best of luck this week – AL

Course Breakdown: Sea Island (Seaside/Plantation)

by Andy Lack | Nov 13, 2023 | Final DFS Thoughts | 0 comments

2023 Course Breakdown: Sea Island (Seaside/Plantation) 

The Basics 

• Course: Sea Island (Seaside Course)
• Location: St. Simons Island, Georgia
• Designer: Harry Colt (1928); Tom Fazio re-design (1998)
• Length: Par 70; 7,005 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on 13 holes
• Fairways: Tifway Bermuda-grass with Platinum Paspalum measuring 42 yards wide on average
• Rough: Tifway Bermuda-grass (2 inches)
• Greens: 7,200 square foot TifEagle Bermuda-grass running 12.5 on the stimp

• Course: Sea Island (Plantation Course)
• Location: St. Simons Island, Georgia
• Designer: Walter Travis (1926); Rees Jones re-design (1998); Davis Love re-design (2019)
• Length: Par 72; 7,060 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on 10 holes
• Fairways: Platinum Paspalum
• Rough: TifTurf Bermuda-grass
• Greens: 6,100 square foot TifEagle

The RSM Classic debuted on the PGA Tour in October of 2010 at Sea Island Golf Club in St. Simons Island, Georgia. Since 2015, the event has been played at both the Seaside and Plantation courses, featuring a full field of 156 players. The RSM Classic always attracts a solid field, as Sea Island is an extremely common home base for professional golfers. Jonathan Byrd, Harris English, Brian Harman, Zach Johnson, Patton Kizzire, Matt Kuchar, Keith Mitchell, Andrew Novak, J.T. Poston, Greyson Sigg, Michael Thompson, and tournament host Davis Love III, among others, all cite Sea Island as their permanent residence. Even players such as Chris Kirk, Kevin Kisner, Seamus Power, and Nick Watney spend a great deal of their offseason practicing at the Sea Island performance center.

It’s not a coincidence that PGA Tour pros love Sea Island. It’s an insular, modern, and well-manicured facility that features three courses: the Plantation, Seaside, and Retreat. The RSM Classic is held only at the Seaside and Plantation courses, as players will each play a round at the Seaside and Plantation on Thursday and Friday. Those who make the cut will play their final 36 holes at the Seaside Course. With 75% of the tournament, including the final two days, being held at the Seaside Course, I will focus the majority of my attention on the Seaside Course. Also, we have far more information on the Seaside course, as it employs shot-tracker data. The Plantation is unfortunately devoid of such valuable data. Luckily, there is not a discernible difference between the two courses. A true psycho could create a different model for each course and then utilize a composite, weighing the Seaside model at 75% and the Plantation at 25%. Even I am not that crazy, and while there are some subtle differences between the Seaside and Plantation, my Plantation model would not look all that different. The main distinction between the two is that Plantation course generally plays easier because it features two extra par fives. Still, it really comes down to the wind, as we have seen instances where the Plantation course actually plays more challenging in gusting winds.

Turning our full attention to the Seaside course, the Harry Colt design features large greens and extremely generous fairways. Playing under 7,000 yards, it’s the third-shortest course that players will face all year, with the second-shortest set of par fours on the PGA Tour. The course’s greatest defense is the wind, but winning scores across the past five years have ventured past 19 under par. Each of the last five years it has ranked as one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour, but not within the top 10 easiest. The Seaside does feature four fairly stout par threes that measure between 179 and 223 yards. The third hole, which measures 204 yards, plays as the third-most difficult hole on the course. The fifth hole, which measures 223 yards, ranks as the fifth-most difficult hole on the course. Ten of the 12 par fours measure between 405 and 455 yards, which explains the fact that nearly 60% of all approach shots at the Seaside course come from between 125 and 175 yards. The closing hole, which measures 470 yards, is the only par four on the property that measures over 455 yards. The pair of par fives play as the two easiest holes on the course, with the 15th playing more like a par four and a half, yielding a scoring average of 4.42 and a birdie rate of 51%. Players who fail to make birdie on this hole will be losing ground to the field.

Ultimately, the Seaside course (the Plantation is just as, if not easier) is one of the more benign tests that players will face all year. Just like last week in Bermuda, be sure to monitor the weather report as we get closer to Thursday. This event (historically at least) is not as wind-affected as the Butterfield Bermuda, but both courses are still heavily exposed and weather generally plays at least some factor over the course of the event. Let’s dive into the stats.

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • Last year, the Seaside course ranked 15th out of 43 courses in strokes gained off-the-tee difficulty, and each of the last five years, it has ranked right around average to slightly harder than average in this category. I was surprised to find that despite featuring extremely generous fairways, off the tee has provided the most pushback in terms of strokes gained difficulty compared to all other four major categories.
  • Still, last year, Callum Tarren and Brian Harman both gained under a stroke off the tee. Talor Gooch won the event the prior year losing strokes off the tee, and four of the top 10 players on the leaderboard all lost strokes off the tee. In 2021, Kyle Stanley, Camilo Villegas, and Zach Johnson all finished in the top six while losing strokes off the tee.
  • Driving accuracy at Seaside is 65.9% compared to the Tour average of 58.4%, and the course features the sixth-widest fairways on the PGA Tour. It featured the fourth-highest driving accuracy percentage last year on Tour.
  • However, average driving distance at Seaside is only 280.6 yards, compared to the Tour average of 291 yards. Each of the last five years, Seaside has ranked inside the top 10 in lowest driving distance on the PGA Tour. On the contrary, each of the last five years, Seaside has ranked as the easiest fairways to hit on the PGA Tour. It ranked dead last in standard deviation in driving distance on par fours and par fives. What this tells me is that there is not a huge necessity to pull driver on this course.
  • Last year, the Seaside course ranked 18th out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalty, and in both 2020 and 2019 it ranked fifth out of 35 courses in missed fairway penalty, which also provides an explanation to why players club down off the tee, regardless of the expansive landing areas.
  • Last year, Seaside also ranked 41st out of 43 courses in rough penalty, and each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top 10 in lowest penalty for landing in the rough. The short Bermuda rough at Seaside is not remotely an issue, it’s just the big misses, however, that really get penalized.
  • On the contrary, the Seaside course ranked 14th out of 43 courses in non-rough penalty, but it also ranked first in fraction of missed fairways that resulted in a penalty stroke, and it has ranked in the top two of that category every single one of the last 10 years. Essentially, the Seaside features extremely magnanimous fairways, and if players who just happen to miss in the rough should not be concerned either. Yet there is still enough water and marshland in play off the tee. The only way players can find themselves in trouble off the tee at Seaside is via the big miss that will result in a penalty stroke. For this reason, I am not overly concerned with identifying the most accurate drivers of the ball in this field. These fairways are so wide that players really do not gain much of an advantage for possessing elite accuracy. With that being said, extremely wayward driving is a total recipe for disaster.
  • Last year, six of the top 15 players on the leaderboard lost to the field in driving distance, seven of the top 15 lost in driving accuracy percentage, but only two of the top 15 lost in good drive percentage. Adam Svensson (1st), Sahith Theegala (2nd), and Alex Smalley (5th) all finished in the top five in good drive percentage. The prior year, seven of the top 14 players on last year’s leaderboard ranked below average in driving accuracy, while all ranking above average in good drive percentage. 2021 told a similar story, as seven of the top 15 players on the leaderboard ranked below average in driving accuracy, yet 12 of the top 15 ranked above average in good drive percentage.
  • Good drive percentage can help me identify the players who consistently put themselves in position off the tee to hit the green in regulation, which is really all that is required at Sea Island. The best players in this field in good drive percentage are Matthew NeSmith, Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, Doug Ghim, Denny McCarthy, Brice Garnett, Doc Rodman, J.J. Spaun, Aaron Rai, and Corey Conners. 
  • With such massively wide fairways, one would expect a massive edge to those with elite distance off the tee, but that has not necessarily come to fruition at the Seaside course. Distance helps on every course, but I only view it as a worthy statistic for modeling purposes if I can identify a sizable correlation between driving distance and success. That is far from the case at Seaside. With a large plurality of short- to medium-length par fours, and two par fives that are generally reachable by all players, Sea Island certainly falls into the category of courses where shorter hitters are not disadvantaged. The top 10 players in true strokes gained at Seaside (minimum four rounds) are: Adam Svensson, John Senden, K.H. Lee, Sahith Theegala, Jim Furyk, Webb Simpson, Taylor Pendrith, Ben Taylor, Denny McCarthy, and Talor Gooch. Of that group, only Theegala and Pendrith are historically longer-than-average drivers of the ball. One would think that such generous fairways allow bombers to wail away with driver, but there’s enough trouble in the form of hazards to deter most from relying too heavily on the big stick.
  • Ultimately, what players do off the tee at Sea Island is of little relevance so long as they can avoid the big miss. The Colt design is not of the TPC Summerlin or Pebble Beach ilk where off the tee is completely de-valued. Yet the Seaside course is neither a true “Position A” golf course such as Royal Liverpool or TPC Potomac, where players are completely dead on arrival if they are unable to keep the ball in play. Not to mention the fact that Seaside ranks first in fraction of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke! Overall, despite the wide fairways, I still have a fairly standard weight on good drive percentage, and I am primarily concerned with identifying those who can keep the ball in play and are devoid of the big miss.

• Approach 
  • Last year, the Seaside course ranked 29th out of 43 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty, and each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top 12 in easiest strokes gained approach difficulty.
  • Greens in regulation percentage at Seaside is a whopping 73.7% compared to the Tour average of 64.1%. Last year, Seaside featured the third-easiest greens to hit on the PGA Tour, and each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top five easiest greens to hit on PGA Tour.
  • The three proximity buckets that rank above average at Seaside are 125-150 yards, 150-175 yards, and 175-200 yards. The Colt design is definitively a short- to middle-iron course. 60% of all approach shots fall between 125 and 200 yards, which is unsurprising given the length of short to medium-length par fours. The best long-term short- to middle-iron players in this field are Cameron Young, Ryan Moore, Si Woo Kim, Russell Knox, Eric Cole, Greyson Sigg, Carl Yuan, Corey Conners, Sam Ryder, and Akshay Bhatia. 
  • The degree of difficulty of the approach shots at Sea Island is low, so I do not believe that one needs to be an elite iron player to experience success at Seaside, but you’d better make up for it with the flat-stick. When we really boil it down, Seaside is a wedges and putting course.

• Around the Green 
  • Last year, the Seaside course ranked 29th out of 43 courses in strokes gained around-the-green difficulty, and each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top 10 in easiest in strokes gained around-the-green difficulty.
  • Last year, the Seaside course also ranked 21st out of 43 courses in strokes gained around-the-green difficulty from the fairway, and each of the last five years, it has ranked easier than Tour average in strokes gained around-the-green difficulty in this category.
  • The green-side rough is even less of a problem. Last year, the Seaside course ranked 31st out of 43 courses in strokes gained around-the-green difficulty from the rough, and each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top eight in easiest around-the-green difficulty from the rough.
  • Same story with the bunkers. Last year, the Seaside course ranked 41st out of 43 courses in strokes gained around-the-green difficulty from the bunkers. Each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top eight in easiest around-the-green difficulty from the bunkers.
  • Last year, just one player in the top 10 gained over two strokes around the green, and the prior year, not a single player in the top 15 gained over two strokes around the green. Short game is simply not a relevant part of the equation this week.
  • The Seaside course is one of the easiest around-the-green courses on the PGA Tour, and with such a high greens-in-regulation percentage, players will rarely need to rely on their short game at all this week. I would not endorse spending any time looking at around the green metrics here.

• Putting 
  • Unless the wind really gets going, the Seaside course does not do the best job of separating elite from moderate tee to green play. On countless occasions, we’ve seen average ball-strikers get by on the strength of their flat-stick. Of the last 10 winners, Talor Gooch is the only player I would argue is a high caliber ball-striker.
  • Last year, Seaside ranked 40th out of 43 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, as within the past five years, it has ranked as one of the easiest strokes gained putting courses on the PGA Tour.
  • Last year, Seaside also ranked 24th out of 43 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty inside five feet, and each of the last five years, it has ranked right around average to below average in strokes gained putting difficulty inside five feet.
  • Last year, Seaside ranked 38th out of 43 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty from five to 15 feet. Outside of a strange anomaly year in 2022, each of the last five years, Seaside has ranked inside the top 12 easiest putting courses from five to 15 feet.
  • Lag putting is not much of a challenge at Seaside either. Last year, the Colt design ranked 39th out of 43 courses in putting difficulty greater than 15 feet. With 2022 again being the anomaly year, each of the last five years, Seaside has ranked average to easier than Tour average in putting difficulty greater than 15 feet. In 2019, it ranked as the second-easiest lag putting course on Tour, and in 2018, it ranked as the third-easiest lag putting course on Tour.
  • Still, with such a high greens-in-regulation percentage, putting is a crucial part of the equation this week. The degree of difficulty of putting at this course is low, but players will still need to take advantage of the large plurality of birdie looks that are generated per round. The best long-term Bermuda-grass putters in this field are Martin Trainer, Taylor Montgomery, Maverick McNealy, Brian Gay, Alex Noren, Matt Kuchar, Ben Taylor, Ben Griffin, Thomas Detry, and Justin Suh. 

• Scoring Stats 
  • Generating scoring opportunities at the Seaside course is an absolute must. On wedge-heavy courses, I always look to identify the players that give themselves the most birdie looks per round inside 15 feet. The best players in this field in opportunities gained are Eric Cole, Alex Smalley, Ludvig Aberg, Chris Kirk, Kevin Yu, Kevin Roy, Russell Henley, Charley Hoffman, Ryan Palmer, and Luke List. 
  • Conversely, converting those opportunities at an elite rate is equally important, as players should be prepared to get to 17- to 22-under this week. The best players in this field in birdies or better gained are Eric Cole, Ludvig Aberg, Nicolai Hojgaard, Justin Suh, Luke List, Taylor Montgomery, Marty Dou, Corey Conners, Stephan Jaeger, and Scott Piercy. 
  • Finally, Seaside is a course that caters to all shapes and sizes. At Torrey Pines, Bay Hill, and many major championship venues, many players are massively disadvantaged due to a lack of distance off the tee and an emphasis on elite long iron execution. Seaside, on the other hand, is the type of course where players such as Webb Simpson, Matt Kuchar, and Kevin Kisner are licking their chops. I wanted to look closely this week at the players who have performed best on short courses, as Seaside presents a roadmap to success for even the shortest of players. The best players in this field over the last two years on sub-7,200-yard courses are Russell Henley, Brian Harman, Eric Cole, J.T. Poston, Corey Conners, Keith Mitchell, Taylor Montgomery, Thomas Detry, Denny McCarthy, and Maverick McNealy.

• Comp Courses/Course History 
  • In terms of the predictive nature of its course history, both Seaside and Plantation rank on the lower end. The green complexes are relatively straightforward, and both courses are all out in front of you. Talor Gooch had missed three of his last four cuts here before winning, and Adam Svensson missed all three of his cuts before his victory last year. My assumption is that folks are going to overrate the Sea Island angle. Yes, those who live at Sea Island and play both courses regularly should (in theory) possess a huge advantage. Yet it hasn’t always played out that way. Players such as Harris English, Matt Kuchar, and Keith Mitchell have been fairly underwhelming here. A course under tournament conditions is far different than the course that residents see every day, and I would not recommend using “he lives at Sea Island” as a sole reason to include a player in your pool. The best players in this field at Sea Island have been Webb Simpson, Kevin Kisner, Corey Conners, Zach Johnson, Russell Henley, Mackenzie Hughes, Brian Harman, Matthew NeSmith, Billy Horschel, and Will Gordon. 
  • There are tons of courses on the PGA Tour schedule that fall into the short, positional, Bermuda bucket. I do feel like I have many of them covered in the “Strokes Gained Total: Courses under 7,200 yards” bucket, but here are a few tracks that still deserve a specific shoutout.
    • Port Royal (host of the Bermuda Championship) places less of an emphasis on off the tee at Sea Island, but it is still a coastal, wedges, and Bermuda putting course where wind is the greatest defense. The best players in this field at Port Royal are Brian Gay, Brendon Todd, Thomas Detry, Denny McCarthy, Justin Lower, Stewart Cink, Scott Stallings, Kevin Yu, Peter Malnati, and Ben Griffin. 
    • Pebble Beach (host of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am) also deserves consideration as a comp, solely because it’s another short, coastal course with extremely generous fairways. At both Sea Island and Pebble Beach, the emphasis falls squarely on the second shot, which is more often than not with a wedge. There’s more trouble off the tee at Sea Island, but neither course requires elite driving accuracy. The best players in this field at Pebble Beach are Maverick McNealy, Nate Lashley, Kevin Streelman, Matthew NeSmith, Jimmy Walker, Scott Stallings, Kevin Yu, Cameron Champ, Keith Mitchell, and Brian Gay. 
    • Waialae is a little more accuracy focused than what is required at Sea Island, but it still falls in the bucket of a short, coastal, Bermuda wedges course where wind often dictates how difficult it plays. Waialae is also a golden age design and a product of classical architecture, similar to the Seaside course. The best players in this field at Waialae are Matt Kuchar, Corey Conners, Kevin Kisner, Hayden Buckley, Webb Simpson, Stewart Cink, Si Woo Kim, Keith Mitchell, Russell Henley, and Chris Kirk. 
    • Sea Island’s extremely wide fairways explain why I’m a bit more tepid on courses such as TPC Sawgrass, TPC Potomac, Harbour Town, Sedgefield, El Camaleon, and TPC River Highlands. All five of those courses are short and positional in nature with a large plurality of short iron approaches, but I would define them all as “Position A” courses. On “Position A” courses, the first shot is of great importance. Sea Island is far more of a second-shot golf course due to the leniency the players are granted off the tee. They can still find themselves in trouble at the Colt design, but there is a far greater margin for error at the aforementioned courses, which all feature narrower fairways, thicker rough, and more protruding trees. Unlike those tracks, Sea Island does not reward players for possessing elite driving accuracy. Still, we’ve seen a fair amount of leaderboard crossover at all of these courses, as they all still highlight wedge play and allow players of all shapes and sizes to compete.

Model 

• Off the Tee (8%)
  • Good Drive Percentage (8%)
• Approach (33%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (15%)
  • Long-term Proximity 125-150 yards (6%)
  • Long-term Proximity 150-175 yards (7%)
  • Long-term Proximity 175-200 yards (5%)
• Around the Green (0%)
• Putting (13%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Bermuda-grass (13%)
• Scoring Stats (24%)
  • Opportunities Gained (8%)
  • Birdies or Better Gained (8%)
  • Strokes Gained Total: Short Courses (10%)
• Comp Courses/Course History (20%)
  • Sea Island (Seaside) (7%)
  • Sea Island (Plantation) (4%)
  • Pebble Beach (4%)
  • Port Royal (3%)
  • Waialae (3%)

Top 20 

1. Eric Cole
2. Russell Henley
3. Corey Conners
4. Brendon Todd
5. Chesson Hadley
6. J.T. Poston
7. Mark Hubbard
8. Alex Smalley
9. Brian Harman
10. Denny McCarthy
11. Sam Ryder
12. Chris Kirk
13. J.J. Spaun
14. Adam Svensson
15. Si Woo Kim
16. Greyson Sigg
17. Aaron Rai
18. Stephan Jaeger
19. Ben Martin
20. Cameron Young

Butterfield Bermuda Championship Final Thoughts

by Andy Lack | Nov 8, 2023 | Final DFS Thoughts | 0 comments

The 2023 Butterfield Bermuda Championship Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS, and is the type of finding small edge that over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

As I wrote about in my Monday course preview article, Port Royal is one of the most wind affected courses on the PGA Tour. With that being said, it also features one of the worst fields on the PGA Tour, and the good plays this week are few and far between. As it stands now, I am not seeing a discernible difference or advantage for either wave. Of course that could change, which is why I would recommend tuning into my final DK show with Tambo later this evening. Yet ultimately, even if a perceived edge emerges, don’t simply scrap the good plays to find a wind narrative. It’s a coastal course on Bermuda afterall. I still remember the PLAYERS Championship a few years ago when the reverse consensus weather edge came to fruition. The only thing I can say with certainty on Wednesday morning is that Friday will be a tougher go than Thursday. Yet as of now, I’m just sticking to my guns and playing the guys I want, regardless of their tee time.

Core Four

• Thomas Detry, $10,500 (Projected ownership: 19.4%): In full disclosure, I had a difficult time choosing at the top. I have no major problems with Brendon Todd, Adam Scott, or Akshay Bhatia either, and my numbers don’t see a whole lot of separation in them either. I settled on Detry because I do believe he possess the most pure upside based on his ability to completely overpower this golf course, like we saw him do last year when he finished runner-up. Closer followers of the DP World Tour have developed a bit of a contentious relationship with the Belgian due to his circumventing inability to close the door on Sundays. That’s certainly valid, but as I have joked many times already this week, there are simply no rules at the Butty B. If a 20% Brendon Todd at $10.7K this week is your cup of tee, I really can’t make a strong argument against it. There is more talent in most Korn Ferry Tour events, and certainly many of the DP World Tour tournaments that Detry has come so agonizingly close in. Point being, every single lineup this week is going to feature some uncomfortable clicks, and players at prices that we are not used to. If you want to completely jettison the highest priced players under the belief that there is not much separating them from those in the $9K range, than I cannot argue against you either (although I do have some issues with a few players in the nines.) To me, Detry still feels an incredibly safe bet to perform on this specific golf course. Despite his over-imposing length, short courses are his absolute jam, as the 30-year-old ranks first in this entire field on courses under 7,200 yards. What also sets Detry apart from other bombers is that he can putt. The former University of Illinois standout ranks top-25 in this field on slower Bermuda greens, and he also raises his around the green baseline on Bermuda-grass as well. Coming off a more than serviceable 38th at the World Wide Technologies Championship, I expect Detry to continue his strong form at a spot he has already proven to be more than comfortable at.

• Ryan Palmer, $8,500 (Projected ownership: 7.2%): I have been forced into a staunch defense of Ryan Palmer this week, and while I do believe he stands an excellent chance to win the tournament, a DraftKings play on the 47-year-old is an even easier case than I could make for the outright. The argument is simple. Port Royal is an incredibly unique course in the sense that it requires very zero middle iron skill. There are 12 wedge shots and six long iron shots. Ryan Palmer is the only player in this field to rank top-10 in proximity inside 100 yards, and proximity from 200 yards plus. When it comes to flip wedges and long irons, there is not a player in this field more primed for the challenge than Palmer. He also ranks top-30 in this field in opportunities gained, birdies or better gained, and ball-striking in windy conditions. While he has never played this golf course before, the four-time PGA Tour winner’s track record at Pebble Beach and Waialae leads me to believe that he should be more than comfortable around the confines of Port Royal. You play Ryan Palmer at short, coastal tracks. Especially if it’s windy. I will say, I like him a bit less this week if we see incredibly benign conditions, but the weather forecast as of Wednesday morning does show that we will see at least some pushback in the form of wind. And even if we don’t, who could forget his 22-under par birdie barrage at the 2004 Funai Classic at the Walt Disney Resort?

• Troy Merritt, $7,800 (Projected ownership: 8.1%): A low owned Troy Merritt is always a good idea at a wedges and putting course. There are few players that possess the combination of elite wedge play (by this field’s standards) and elite Bermuda-grass putting (by this field’s standards), but Merritt checks both boxes with flying colors. The two-time PGA Tour winner ranks seventh in this field in proximity inside 100 yards, and fifth in slow Bermuda-grass putting. He also ranks top-25 on short courses and in windier conditions. While Merritt only has a ho-hum 40th-place finish here in 2021, the 38-year old has a number of high end finishes at Pebble Beach, and is one of the biggest risers in this field in easy scoring conditions. Merritt is almost the inverse to Palmer, and some insurance in that sense. I prefer Palmer if we see tougher than expected conditions this week, and I prefer Merritt if we see easier conditions. Both are still suitable plays if the opposite comes to fruition, and are being far too neglected from a DraftKings standpoint. While Merritt is coming off just a satisfactory 65th-place finish at the World Wide Technologies Championship, I was highly encouraged by his final round 65, and he already has a seventh at the Fortinet and ninth at the Sanderson Farms this fall swing. These low-pressure, easy scoring fall swing events are undeniably the place to utilize the former Barbasol Championship winner, and I expect him to play a major factor come Sunday afternoon in Bermuda.

• Kevin Yu, $7,800 (Projected ownership: 7.4%): Kevin Yu might just be a ponzi scheme, but it’s Butty B week, so no rules apply. The stats with Yu always look solid, and this week is no different. He’s a top-25 iron player in this field, both serviceable inside 125 yards, and even a little bit better from 200 yards plus. He ranks third in this field in opportunities gained, which is true remarkable given how little he actually gets out of the birdie opportunities that he generates. He’s one of the best ball-strikers in windy conditions (albeit a small sample size), and two of his best finishes this season came at short, coastal tracks in the form of a 21st at the Sony Open and a seventh at the AT & T National Pro-Am at Pebble Beach. Oh by the way, he also finished third at this golf course last year. There may not be a stronger on paper fit than Kevin Yu this week, certainly not at this price point. Yet I have been down this road with Yu before, and it never ends well. The 25-year-old is coming off a missed cut by three at the World Wide Technologies Championship, and prior to that, he finished 59th at the Zozo, MC at the Shriners, MC at the Sanderson Farms, and MC at the Fortinet. The reason why his results largely don’t line up with his stats, is a bit of a luck, but a lot of putting. In terms of recent putting, Yu has been absolutely dreadful, ranking 126th in this field. Yet he actually raises his baseline significantly when placed on slow, Bermuda-grass greens. Yu might end up ultimately being token good stats, bad results player on Tour, but if there is ever a week to take a risk and blindly believe in the numbers, this is it. At bear minimum, while his numbers deem him a good fit for any course, these are the types of tracks he has actually been good on. I’ll take the plunge just one more time.

Chalk Report

• 10K: As previously alluded to, I don’t take major issue with any of the options in the $10K range. My numbers don’t suggest a whole lot of separation between any, as all four rank as top-10 plays for me statistically. Unsurprisingly, I do believe that Akshay Bhatia will be the most popular choice at 24%. Coming off a 10th place finish in Mexico, Bhatia has already established himself as an elite coastal/tropical player who raises his baseline on slower surfaces. I have Adam Scott next at 21.5%, and he is the player in this range with the highest range of outcomes, and the only with no course experience. Brendon Todd comes next at 21%, and he checks the most boxes statistically for me as the number one play by my numbers. I still have concerns about his lack of upside. At this stage of his career, his only true chance of finding the winner’s circle is with a +7 putting week, whereas the other players in this range are not quite as reliant on one aspect of their game. I’ve mentioned the separation I have between these players is negligible, and ownership was always going to be my tiebreaker. I’ve thus settled on Thomas Detry at 19% as my preferred option this week. He’s a touch over-priced in this field, but that argument could be made about many players. It’s the Butty B afterall. Yet with all four players ranging between 19 and 25% in ownership, you’ve got the leniency to play who your heart desires.

• 9K: Here’s where we get to see ownership start to spread out and some choices are forced to be made. I’ll start with the two most popular options: Ben Griffin and Taylor Pendrith. I have both coming in around 20-21%. I far prefer Griffin in this scenario, but I understand Pendrith as a discounted option to Detry. I actually think Lucas Glover is the most under-priced player in this range, and I would have expected him to get the most love. I’ve got Glover coming in at a robust 16.5%. He’s certainly not sneaking up on anyone, but I’d be surprised if he caught Pendrith or Griffin. Next up is Doug Ghim at 15%, a player I’m fairly neutral on this week. I actually like him a little bit more than the three lower owned players I am about to mention, but in a vacuum, I’d still give Glover the nod. The final three players do present some leverage. I’ve got Lucas Herbert at 10.5%, Alex Noren at 11.5%, and Luke List at 12.5%. I guess  I’d go List, Noren, Herbert, if forced to rank in terms of preference? I’m not a huge fan of either of the three. Glover and Ghim make the most sense to me here.

• 8K: There are some players here. I have Alex Smalley as a bonafide $9K guy in this field, so $8.9K is a gift. With that being said, he will carry the most ownership. I’ve got him coming in at a robust 19.5%. This actually might finally be the Mark Hubbard breakout week I have been hoping for all Fall swing. Coming off a missed cut, 11.5% is more than fair. He was the last man out in my core four. I’ve already shared my love for Ryan Palmer, and I’d advocate for flop-lag plays on Davis Riley and Brandon Wu as well. Both will come in between 9 and 13%. I have zero interest in the other five players, but I’ll still rank them in terms of preference:
  • Vincent Whaley, $8,000 (13%)
  • Nick Hardy, $8,600 (12.5%)
  • Dylan Wu, $8,200 (11.5%)
  • Stewart Cink, $8,300 (3%)
  • MJ Daffue, $8,000 (6%)

I could think of at least five players in the sevens that should be highest priced than Cink and Daffue, but you can at least catch a huge break on both from an ownership perspective. I still think Palmer and Hubbard is the most logical direction here. I’m going to eat it and play one of Smalley or Griffin. I bet both players to win, but have been disappointed with the ownership I’ll have to stomach. Maybe one catches some late steam this afternoon which will make the decision easier, as I’ve gone back and forth too many times already this morning.

• 7K: There’s something for everyone down here, and the players receiving the most love are beyond confusing to me. Here are the guys I feel confident will come in with double digits ownership, ranked in terms of preference:
  • Matthias Schmid, $7,700 (11.5%)
  • Austin Smotherman, $7,200 (11%)
  • Justin Lower, $7,600 (15%)
  • Peter Malnati, $7,400 (10.5%)

I enjoy some Justin Lower from time to time, but I have no understanding of why this is the week everyone is deciding to play him. That’s an easy pass. Matti Schmid makes the most sense to me. He destroys the ball off the tee and is an excellent long iron player too, with already a few awesome ball-striking performances under his belt this Fall. Still, my favorite three in the high sevens are Peter Kuest, Troy Merritt, and Kevin Yu. I’ve got all coming in at a very palatable six to nine percent. A few of my favorites in the low sevens include David Lipsky, Patton Kizzire, Russell Knox, Andrew Novak, Scott Piercy, and Charley Hoffman. There’s an outside chance that Knox hits double digits (Kelly Kraft could too?) I still wouldn’t be concerned too much about ownership down here.

• 6K: The only real name to report down here is the Prince of Port Royal, the Baron of the Butterflield, none other than Brian Gay. Here’s the thing about Brian Gay. I really can’t argue against the play, even at 10%. It’s not for me personally, but if that’s how you want to get down this week, all power to you. Instead, I’ll take one more ride on the Kevin Roy carousel. A true Ponzi scheme. Ryan Armour, Satoshi Kodaira, and Jason Dufner are all playable options. A sentence I never expected to type in 2023.

Good luck this week – AL