It’s starting to feel a lot like golf season! The TOUR has hit the West Coast and we are just 83 days away from the Masters. It’s time to sprint — let’s go!

---

? Last Week’s Optimal Lineup

Grayson Murray: $6,200 | 128.0 PTS
Ben An: $8,700 | 122.5 PTS
Keegan Bradley: $8,000 | 116.5 PTS
Russell Henley: $9,600 | 113.0 PTS
Carl Yuan: $6,200 | 106.5 PTS
Matthieu Pavon: $6,700 | 106.0 PTS
TOTAL: $45,400 | 692.5 PTS

---

? High Upside Grayson

In his last 17 events (across the PGA TOUR & KFT), Grayson Murray has gained 9+ strokes to the field on six different occasions which has led to three victories.

The downside is also pretty staggering, he has (6) MCs or WDs during that same stretch, but let’s focus on the positive.

To find the last six events where Rickie Fowler has gained 9+ strokes to the field, you have to go all the way back to his T6 at the 2019 Open Championship at Royal Portrush.

For Chris Kirk, you have to go back nearly two years to the 2022 PGA Championship at Southern Hills.

Murray doesn’t always have his best stuff, but he does have his best stuff frequently and his best stuff is capable of winning golf tournaments.

---

?Longshot SZN

This week is about as volatile as it gets and it’s one of the most difficult events to handicap correctly. There’s a three course rotation, it’s the start of a new year, there’s an influx of new golfers, etc.

There’s simply a ton of variables that are difficult to account for making this a chaotic event — and the recent winners prove that.

2023: Jon Rahm (8-1) — okay maybe not this one.
2022: Hudson Swafford (250-1)
2021: Si Woo Kim (60-1)
2020: Andrew Landry (200-1)
2019: Adam Long (500-1)

The average winner odds at this event in the last five years in 204-1! I’ve been tracking the odds for every PGA TOUR event since the start of 2019 and this event has the highest average odds for the winner during that span.

---

3️⃣ Wrap Your Head Around The Rotation

The next three weeks will feature eight (!!) different courses. This week, the host course is the Pete Dye Stadium Course but it will be supplemented by both La Quinta Country Club and the Nicklaus Tournament Course.

Each golfer in the field will play one round at each course, before a 54-hole cut, and return to the Stadium Course for the final round.

Stadium Course: Par 72 | 7,187 Yards – 69.260 Scoring Average Last Year
La Quinta Country Club: Par 72 | 7,060 Yards – 69.584
Nicklaus Tournament Course: Par 72 | 7,147 Yards – 68.724

The order in which they are played will be this carousel:

La Quinta > Nicklaus > Stadium > La Quinta > Nicklaus > Stadium

---

---

?‍? PGA West is MSG And This Is Minsanity

Prepare for full on Minsanity in 2024 as Min Woo Lee crashed onto the scene with a full-time PGA TOUR card.

He’s lost strokes to the field just once in his last 14 starts while earning (9) Top 15s along the way including a win at the Australian PGA Championship.

His stat profile has made consistent and impressive gains, reminding me of the Max Homa “slow but sure” improvement.

I have SG data on Min Woo data back to 2018 and he’s always been about 0.50 strokes/rd better than his peers. He took a massive leap in 2023 thanks to a significant improvement on the putting surfaces.

It’s a small sample size but he’s also showing gains in the approach category which would combine with his stellar off-the-tee play to make him one of the best ball-strikers on the planet. We are still quite a bit out from replacing his chef’s hat with a crown but the trajectory that he’s on is one to monitor.

---

⭐ Tracking Has Never Been Easier

In case you missed it, I launched a new Live Leaderboard on RickRunGood.com that has the shot-by-shot tracker, strokes gained metrics and much more. It’s available each week for the PGA TOUR and DP World Tour. Here are a few images showing something that I’m quite proud of:

I hope you enjoy it as much as I do. Here’s the link to the PGA TOUR Live Leaderboard and here’s the link to the DP World Tour Live Leaderboard.

Both can also be accessed from the RickRunGood.com homepage.

---

? Embrace The Chaos?

On the surface, this is an event for longshots — which we’ve already discussed. They win more frequently and at longer numbers than basically any other event on the schedule.

HOWEVER!!!

This event has been “dominated” by golfers with short odds. They haven’t won as frequently but they have gained more strokes to the field than all but two events on the schedule since 2019.

The way this reads — Golfers who are 20-1 or shorter have averaged +2.27/round at The American Express since 2019. That’s the third best average of any tournament with at least 14 qualifying players.

(In case you were wondering, the 3M Open has been the worst event for these golfers)

---

? Give Me More Content!

• You can read my American Express statistical profile in my written preview on RickRunGood.com.
• Join me on Wednesday at 3PM ET for AMEX Live Chat — where I’ll answer your questions and cover so much more.

---

Ready to sweat? The first full-field of the event is here and your Friday has just turned steamy! It’s great to have cut lines, even when your golfers fall on the wrong side of them.

Rick

---

? Last Week’s Optimal Lineup

Chris Kirk: $6,800 | 163.0 PTS
Ben An: $6,800 | 146.5 PTS
Sahith Theegala: $7,600 | 144.5 PTS
Jordan Spieth: $8,800 | 143.5 PTS
Brian Harman: $9,300 | 135.5 PTS
Sungjae Im: $8,100 | 135.5 PTS
TOTAL: $47,400 | 868.5 PTS

---

? More of The Same?

Statistically speaking, Scottie Scheffler’s putter (or lackthereof) has been the most compelling story of the last twelve months. There’s lots of ways to breakdown the good, the bad and the ugly but here’s a new one. Let’s compare his putting week to the winner:

What does this all mean? I don’t know. But here’s my opinion:

Neither made any bombs of 25’ or longer. Both were within similar ranges or small sample sized from 20’-25’, 15’-20’ and 10’-15’ (Scottie actually won this range).

The big discrepancies come from 3’-5’ and 4’-8’. Kirk was perfect from 3’-5’ hitting all ten of his putts while Scottie was 9/13 from that same range. Think about that — FOUR missed putts from 3’-5’.

On the TOUR, a 5’ putt is made 75% of the time. Scottie was 69.23% on those putts and shorter.

Moving back just a little farther, Scottie’s make rate (63.16%) from 4’-8’ is just abysmal. These are putts that (at worst) he’s a coin flip to make. Most of them, he’s a heavy favorite to make. Even if he bumped his expectation to TOUR average (74.67%), he would have made two more from this range.

Those are basically six strokes that could (should?) have been easily removed from his score. That doesn’t even include the 2’11” putt he missed.

He finished four shots off the lead.

?The Cheap Date!

Priced at just $6,800, Chris Kirk becomes the first winner to come from the $6,000 range since Kurt Kitayama at last year’s API. Since the start of 2018, there have only been 12 winners to come from this price range — with Stewart Cink being both 1) the cheapest ($6,300) and 2) the only to accomplish the feat twice.

---

? Different Island, Different Course

Last Week: 7,600 yards, par-73, 140 meter difference in elevation
This Week: 7,044 yards, par-70, 17 meter difference in elevation

These two courses are separated by just 104 miles and share the same state flag, but they don’t have much in common.

Waialae Country Club is one of the flattest courses on the schedule and significantly rewards off-the-tee prowess compared to its neighbor in Maui.

1. East Lake Golf Club
2. Muirfield Village Golf Club
3. Waialae Country Club

What do those three courses have in common? They are the three courses on schedule with the biggest missed fairway penalty. If you miss the fairway at Waialae, it’ll cost 0.15 strokes to the field.

---

Global One & Done Hosted on RunGoodGolf.com
My personal attempt to make a worldwide, OAD leaderboard with divisions, user profiles, full stat-tracking and more. It’s $39 for the season with an emphasis on universal ranking and not prizes (though, prizes do exist).
Current Signups: 971 (across 11 countries)

More Info & Signup: RunGoodGolf.com

U.S. Based ‘Big Money’ One & Done Host on SplashSports
This is a regulated contest, available in 41 different states. First place will be as high as $30,000 with payouts for the top 15% of the entrants. The buy-in is $150 and you can have up to five entries. This is limited to 2,200 users so please get your spots soon. This is being hosted on SplashSports, which we used for weekly contests and NFL Survivor.
Current Signups: 554

More Info & Signup: SplashSports.com

---

? The Puppies Have Changed The Game

When I chose to partner up with Underdog Fantasy in 2024, I knew there were going to be some exciting format updates and it didn’t take long for those dreams to come to fruition.

Underdog Fantasy just released Season-Long Best Ball Leagues!

Let me be clear, Best Ball is probably the fastest growing sector of fantasy sports and for good reason. It is strictly the best part about playing fantasy (the drafts) without having to deal with the annoying stuff (setting lineups, free agency, trades). I’m absolutely stoked that Best Ball is available for golf now.

I’ll have a ton of in-depth information about this but here is the short of it:

• Runs from Phoenix Open to Open Championship
• You draft 10 players, no waivers, subs, traders, etc.
• Your best six scores are automatically counted as “starters”
• You advance through five rounds versus teams from your groups.
• $100,000 guaranteed, $10,000 to first, $10 entry
  • UPDATE: They just added a $3 and $100 contest

There is a lot of strategy involved in this and I’m working through all the details. I’ll have dedicated content each week and we will do plenty of live drafts throughout the next few weeks.

For now — here is a look at the schedule with events that will be included in each round. This is going to be the most critical aspect for drafting:

Please sign up at Underdog using the code “RICK” which will earn you up to a $100 deposit match.

---

? Newcomers To Watch

Jimmy Stanger: Great driver, 5th in Total Driving on KFT last year. Well-rounded — 35th in GIR, 20th in Putting Average, 10th in Birdie or Better. Talented but more volatile than some of his peers.

Norman Xiong: The ultimate boom-or-bust player — had (1) win, (1) runner-up and (9) missed cuts in 21 starts last year. Formally the Haskins Award winner with massive expectations. Earned his TOUR card from KFT.

Alejandro Tosti: Piled up (10) Top 10 finishes, with a win, in 23 starts last year. Bombs it off-the-tee, excellent putter and fills it up with birdies. Also served a suspension for misconduct. BUCKLE UP!

Adrien Dumont de Chassart (ADDC): Made 9/11 cuts last year with (6) Top 10 finishes. Started his season with a stretch of: WIN, T2, T8, T6, T7, T10 and hardly cooled off after that. One of the better ball-strikers on that circuit.

---

? The Comeback Trail

After only a handful of starts in 2023, Will Zalatoris will be making his 2024 debut and I find him to be one of the most fascinating golfers for this week and every week after.

Don’t forget that Zalatoris was truly elite when he was firing on all cylinders. Over the last 100 rounds for every golfer in the world, there are only five who:

✅ Have gained at least 1.0 stroke/round
✅ Have 10+ Top 10 Finishes
✅ Have 1+ Win

---

?Help Me, Help You!

In 2024, you’re going to see more content from me than ever — with an emphasis on this email newsletter. If there is a question you’ve always wondered, a problem you’ve been unable to solve, or a deep-dive into any golf topic you want — let me know! Email me [email protected]

---

? Give Me More Content!

You can read more about the statistical profile of Waialae CC in my written preview on RickRunGood.com.

Join me on Wednesday at 3PM ET for Sony Open Live Chat — where I’ll answer your questions and cover so much more.

Another year in the books, I cannot believe it. This past year was full of turbulence in our sport and there’s still plenty of unknown for the future. But there is something I can be certain about moving forward — (stop me if you’ve heard this before) — someone will win every event. There will be someone who beats the rest, books will payout funds, fantasy points will be earned and OAD contests will be competitive. All of that is enough for me.

Below you’ll find some fun stat nuggets looking back on 2023, a year unlike any other.

“May the best of your todays be the worst of your tomorrows” – Jay-Z

– Rick

? Most Valuable Golfer of The Year

Kurt “Quadzilla” Kitayama was the most profitable golfer of 2023. If you bet $100 on Kitayama in every single one of his starts, you’d have made a $23,000 profit. That was obviously buoyed by his win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he closed at 250-1. Here are the most profitable golfers of the year, with at least 20 starts:

1. Kurt Kitayama: +$23,000
2. Lucas Glover: +$12,000
3. Wyndham Clark: +$10,600
4. Brian Harman: +$7,600
5. Keegan Bradley: +$5,900

Now for the big boys — based on average odds — here are the returns for the games best golfers.

1.  Scottie Scheffler: +$850
2. Xander Schauffele: -($2,100)
3. Viktor Hovland: +$2,300
4. Collin Morikawa: -($900)
5. Max Homa: +$100
6. Tony Finau: -($1,400)
7. Justin Thomas: -($2,100)
8. Cameron Young: -($2,300)
9. Matt Fitzpatrick: +$900
10. Jordan Spieth: -($2,200)

---

? The 2023 Fantasy King

One of the most unique aspects of golf is that not every golfer plays every event — duh! So when you look back at season-long totals, it can get a bit wonky.

There were 89 different golfers who scored at least 1,400 fantasy points in 2023. Some did it in as few as 20 starts while others needed 32 cracks. The visualization helps to show the relationship between volume and efficiency:

---

? Rounds of the Year

Below, you’ll find the best rounds of the year in terms of Strokes Gained — and they might surprise you. We all remember the opening round 62s from Rickie Fowler and Xander Schauffele at LACC, which gained 9.38 strokes to the field that day.

Those rounds were the ninth (!!) best rounds in my RickRunGood.com database, which covers the PGA TOUR, Korn Ferry Tour, Champions Tour, LIV Golf, DP World Tour and Asian Tour.

The single best round of the year came from Dale Whitnell who fired a 61 in round two of the Volvo Scandinavian Mixed. Not only was that round 12.29 strokes better than the field average but it was five (!!!!!) full strokes better than the next best round.

Michael Feagles opened the BMW Charity Pro-Am with a 59 (+10.11) but followed that with rounds of 71 and 73 — fading to a T15 finish.

The best weekend round came from Taylor Dickson, who carded a 62 (+10.06) on Saturday of the Magnit Championship. He flew up the leaderboard on Moving Day but fell a few shots short of Chan Kim that week.

Honorable Mention — Bryson DeChambeau’s final round 58 to win LIV Golf Greenbrier was impressive and historic but “only” gained 8.74 strokes to the field that day. The same exact number that Louis Oosthuizen gained in round three of his Alfred Dunhill Championship victory just a few weeks ago.

---

? For Glory, For Money, For Both! ?

There are not one, but two different One & Done leagues that I am running for 2024. I understand that can be confusing, so let me explain:

• Global One & Done Hosted on RunGoodGolf.comMy personal attempt to make a worldwide, OAD leaderboard with divisions, user profiles, full stat-tracking and more. It’s $39 for the season with an emphasis on universal ranking and not prizes (though, prizes do exist).

More Info & Signup: RunGoodGolf.com

• U.S. Based ‘Big Money’ One & Done Hosted on Splash SportsThis is a regulated contest, available in 41 different states. First place will be as high as $30,000 with payouts for the top 15% of the entrants. The buy-in is $150 and you can have up to five entries. This is limited to 2,200 users so please get your spots soon. This is being hosted on Splash Sports, which we used for weekly contests and NFL Survivor.

More Info & Signup: SplashSports.com

---

? Frankenstein Golfer vs. The Cat

If you took only the best skills from each golfer and combined them into one Frankenstein Golfer — how good could he be? Or if Scottie Scheffler could putt, how good could he be? Here’s the best at each category for 2023:

OTT: Scottie Scheffler: +1.07APP: Scottie Scheffler: +1.19ARG: Justin Thomas: +0.49PUTT: Denny McCarthy: +0.79TOTAL: +3.54

That would be slightly better than Tiger Woods in 2006, when he gained 3.44 strokes to the field himself — and he won eight times in 15 events.

Below you’ll find the most up-to-date information on leagues for 2024.

---

⛳ Season Long Fantasy Leagues

We had nearly 2,000 users in Season Long Leagues last year, which is just awesome! Many of you are already in leagues, so you can simply continue those leagues with your league-mates. If you want to join a new league, keep reading.

Quick rules updates — for my league, I have opted to make the following changes:

1. Expand rosters from 12 to 14
2. Reduce starters from 6 to 4
3. Change scoring system from fantasy points to money earned

With the current state of golf and its scheduling, this should help with the roster churn between signature and non-signature events. Additionally, it should keep matchups more competitive even with golfers who miss the cut.

You don’t have to follow these changes, just something that I think will help.

We need commissioners!

If you want to play in a league, please take the initiative to create a league.

1. Go to Fantrax and create a golf league
2. Use these rules: https://bit.ly/3v1DTl9
3. Post your league in this spreadsheet, so others can join: https://bit.ly/3iXbmqH
4. Keep your entry on the spreadsheet updated with how many spots are open.
5. Enjoy!

Payment Options

We found that using the Fantrax Treasurer was the easiest way to handle payments, especially with leagues of strangers. The money sits in there all year and the commissioner can distribute at the end. It was pretty straight-forward and easy last year.

---

?450+ Users In OAD

We already have over 450 users playing in the 2024 Run & Done. This is a full stat-tracking league with up to four years of history for those who have played in the past. It’s a unique league that should be a great barometer as a Worldwide One & Done League.

Full Rules: https://rungoodgolf.com/rules/

Sign Up: www.RunGoodGolf.com

---

? More To Come…

I’ve been working hard the last few weeks and will have some more updates soon that include:

• Tons more data on RickRunGood.com & and an updated tool.
• A second OAD league for big money, available in 40 states.
• A new community communication platform.

This is something I’ve been wanted to do for a long time.

I’ll be raffling off some golf items and memorabilia with the proceeds going to the St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital. 

These are items that I’ve enjoyed in my collection but now it’s time for someone else to enjoy them, with the money going to best cause that I could fathom.

It’s a raffle because it will raise more money and it means there is a very low barrier of entry. If you want to be in for $1, you can be. If you want to be in for $1,000, go for it.

Details & Items Below ⬇️

---

To Enter: Buy Raffle Tickets via Venmo or PayPal$1 = 1 Entry

PayPal: [email protected]Direct Link: paypal.me/rickgehmanVenmo: @RickGehmanDirect Link: venmo.com/u/rickgehman

Do not comment “raffle” of “giveaway”. Just say “golf”, “gift” or “thanks”. 

• Send as much as you want, no limits (it’s charity!).

• You are eligible for ALL LOTS, you don’t have to pick & choose.

  • Yes, you can win more than once.

• Winners revealed on Live Stream (Thursday December 14th at 8PM ET)

  • Link: https://bit.ly/46WeCFY

• I’ll pay for shipping in the US, but you’ll have to cover the International amount.

• Deadline: Thursday December 14th at 7PM ET

  • Anything received after this will not be refunded, but it will be donated!

---

Lot #1: (1) Dozen ProV1x & Davis Love III Signed HatDescription: This hat was signed by DLIII at an RSM Event leading up to the RSM Classic. It’s an Adidas hat, new with tags. Also, (1) dozen ProV1x golf balls.

Lot #2: Signed Ben An Shoe & CJ HatDescription: The shoe was designed by a St Jude patient and applied onto the model of FootJoy worn by Ben An. It was signed and auctioned off at a charity event, where I acquired it. Additionally, (1) CJ Hat.

Lot #3: Shoe Signed by Ben An & CJ HatDescription: The “other” shoe in the Ben An pair, along with another CJ Hat.

Lot #4: Sungjae Im Signed ShoeDescription: The shoe was designed by a St Jude patient and applied onto the model of FootJoy worn by Sungjae Im. It was signed and auctioned off at a charity event, where I acquired it.

Lot #5: Michelob Ultra Hat & Glove (Left Hand)Description: Nike Michelob Ultra hat, new with tags — adjustable. Michelob Ultra branded golf glove (worn on left hand) in Size Large.

Lot #6: Event Used Scorecard, Signed by Tony Jacklin & Dave StocktonDescription: Official scorecard from round 1 of the 1995 FHP Health Care Classic, a PGA TOUR Champions event. This was used and signed by 2-time Major Winner, Tony Jacklin. His marker that day was Dave Stockton who also signed the card. Stockton also won (2) Majors in his career.

Lot #7: Scotty Cameron TE I3 Newport Two Longneck PutterDescription: I don’t know much about this putter, it was gifted to me from someone who has aged out of playing golf. It sounds like the original owner might have had it refinished or refurbished at some point. It’s approximately 35”.

Lot #8: Sports Card Lot #1Description: Assortment of golf and sports cards including:

• Norman Xiong dual patch, autographed /149

• Nicolai & Rasmus Hojgaard dual patches, both tournament worn.

• Pete Alonso Game Used Patch

• And others.

Lot #9: Sports Card Lot #2Description: Assortment of golf and sports cards including:

• Nicolai Hojgaard dual patch /149

• Norman Xiong patch auto /499

• Mike Piazza Game Used Bat

• And others.

Lot #10: 2018 U.S. Open Flag, Signed by Rickie Fowler (Frame Not Included)Description: Large Rickie Fowler autograph on an embroidered Shinnecock Hills flag. Very beautiful signature — frame not included.

Lot #11: Sungjae Im Signed GloveDescription: Designed by a St Jude patient and applied to the same model glove worn by Sungjae. Signed on the palm.

Lot #12: 1997 Masters Badge (Low Number)Description: Authentic Masters Badge from 1997, Tiger’s first Masters. It’s in great condition and low numbered (1296) compared to others that I’ve seen. This is a staple of any Tiger Woods or Masters memorabilia collections.

Lot #13: 2022 U.S. Open Poster by Lee Wybranski (24” x 36”)Description: New in tube, never opened. Brookline poster by Lee Wybranski. Great artist who makes these posters for a variety of golf events. They are always sold on-site, but I’m not sure if they are only sold on-site.

Lot #14: I give you $100 (Oliver not included)Description: I just give you $100 in cash, PayPal or Venmo — winner’s choice. Oliver will not be included, he stays with me.

---

Okay that’s all for now — if I find anything else I’ll add it. Again here are the details:

To Enter: Buy Raffle Tickets via Venmo or PayPal$1 = 1 Entry

PayPal: [email protected]Direct Link: paypal.me/rickgehmanVenmo: @RickGehmanDirect Link: venmo.com/u/rickgehman

Do not comment “raffle” of “giveaway”. Just say “golf” or “gift” or “thanks”. 

• Send as much as you want, no limits (it’s charity!).

• You are eligible for ALL LOTS, you don’t have to pick & choose.

  • Yes, you can win more than once.

• Winners revealed on Live Stream (Wednesday December 13th at 8PM ET)

  • Link: https://bit.ly/46WeCFY

• I’ll pay for shipping in the US, but you’ll have to cover the International amount.