By Andy Lack

The 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

I’m really not seeing a whole lot here. It’s certainly breezy in the morning on both Thursday and Friday, but by 9:00 AM to 10:00 AM on both days, it really started to calm down and even out. Friday is a little more benign throughout the day on Thursday, but we are splitting hairs. I would not go out of my way to play a weather advantage.

Core Four

• Jordan Spieth, $9,900 (Projected ownership: 19.5%): I’ve always been a fairly neutral bystander when it comes to Jordan Spieth. I don’t root for him. I don’t root against him. I don’t really believe that he is overrated or underrated. I understand why he is adored and I generally find him properly rated as a golfer. From a betting and DraftKings standpoint, I do find him over-valued at times, but this week is a rare exception. Spieth should be the second highest priced player on the slate this week. He was my first bet of the week at 14/1, and I genuinely thought he would be lower on the odds board. Whatever injuries concerns he carried last week into Oak Hill were completely quelled by the fact that he put together one of the best off the tee performances of his career. How a player that is not one of the longest drivers of the ball on Tour gains six strokes off the tee at Oak Hill is beyond me. My only explanation is that not only did Spieth feature above average distance at Oak Hill, but he was incredibly accurate as well. There’s a myth that distance is mitigated at Colonial, and this is an event that is typically won by the Kevin Kisner’s and Kevin Na’s of the world. Tony Finau, Scottie Scheffler, Jason Kokrak, and Sam Burns have all found themselves towards the top of the leaderboard in the last two years by taking an incredibly aggressive driving approach, and cutting the corner on doglegs. I expect Gil Hanse to give this course a major update for next year’s tournament, but the current iteration of Colonial is outdated, and elite drivers of the ball can really take advantage here. Even if Spieth wasn’t driving the ball awesome right now, he could still top-10 at this course in his sleep. He’s got nine top-15 finishes, three runner-ups, and a win in 10 appearances at the Perry Maxwell track. He’s the second man on the betting board, but still priced below Scheffler, Tony Finau, Viktor Hovland, and Collin Morikawa on the DraftKings slate. I would have expected Spieth to come in between 25 and 30% at this deflated price on this golf course, but that is somehow not the case. Just like Rory last week, the three-time major winner will be in 100% of my lineups this week.

• K.H. Lee, $8,300 (Projected ownership: 7.4%): I’m not typically a K.H. Lee guy. In fact, this might actually be the first time that he has ever been featured in this column. With that being said, I love this spot for the two-time Byron Nelson Championship winner. Lee is coming off a very respectable 29th at the PGA Championship where he gained over a stroke ball-striking, and he now travels back to his favorite state to win golf tournaments in. While Lee has yet to find a ton of success at Colonial yet, there has been a strong correlation between those that have played well at TPC Craig Ranch and this week’s venue. The two second-place finishes in both of Lee’s Byron Nelson victories were Sam Burns and Jordan Spieth afterall. Not to say that TPC Craig Ranch and Colonial are incredibly similar from an architecture standpoint, but as we just saw with Brooks Koepka and the state of New York, players simply raise their baseline in certain regions. The examples are countless. From an actual course fit standpoint, I have no issues with Lee and Colonial. He’s got a strong track record of success on Bent-grass, he’s a very accurate driver of the ball, and a very solid middle iron player as well. This is a great opportunity to capitalize on a proven winner that is flying completely under the radar this week.

• Brian Harman, $8,200 (Projected ownership: 5.3%): I’m not usually a huge Brian Harman guy either, but again, there is so much capitalizing to be done in the low $8K range from an ownership standpoint. Harman is coming off what I would say is a “good” missed cut where he gained 2 strokes ball-striking at the PGA Championship. Oak Hill was always going to be an uphill battle for one of the shortest hitters on Tour, but now Harman returns to a course that is far better suited for his skill-set. He’s no stranger to success at Colonial, with six top-25 finishes and three top-10s, and he remains one of the more accurate drivers of the ball in this field. These are the types of layouts where you want to play Brian Harman, as he has also found a tremendous amount of success at Harbour Town and Sea Island, amongst other short, positional golf courses. He ranks ninth in this field on short par 70 courses, and this is typically a week where Harman is over-owned, not under-owned. This is another easy one.

• Davis Riley, $7,400 (Projected ownership: 5.3%): I actually just think that this is a clear mis-price, and I’m surprised that Davis Riley’s ownership does not reflect this. I had Riley pegged in the high $7K range at minimum, and I will be all over him at this generous price. Like Harman, Riley missed the cut at Oak Hill, but it was incredibly forgivable, as Riley still gained over a stroke off the tee. His ball-striking actually got better in both categories, and he now heads to a golf course that he finished fourth at last year. Riley was right in the mix on Sunday at this event, and although he was unable to find the winner’s circle, he still gained over seven strokes ball-striking and looked incredibly comfortable at the Perry Maxwell staple. I love Riley’s fit for Colonial, as he is an accurate driver of the ball, a very solid short to middle iron player, and he gives himself a ton of birdie opportunities. I love that he got a taste of what it feels like to win at the team event, but he’s still destined for bigger and better things. I expect Riley to once again be in the mix this week in the Lone Star state.

Chalk Report

• $10K: Scottie Scheffler is in a tier of his own this week, both from a price standpoint and an ownership standpoint. I have him as the highest owned player on the slate, coming in at a robust 35-39%. I completely understand the love. Scheffler is playing at an incredibly high level right now, and bar none, he possesses the highest floor in golf. The former Masters champion has failed to finish outside of the top-12 all season, and he now returns to his home state and a golf course that he nearly won at last year. The problem for me is the price and ownership gap between him and Jordan Spieth. I said the same thing at the Mexico Open as it referred to Jon Rahm and Tony Finau. Was Rahm a better player and objectively more likely to win the tournament than Finau? Yes, but was the gap between them justified. Spieth is nearly $2K cheaper than Scheffler, and coming in at nearly half the ownership. He should be closer to $1K cheaper with a much smaller ownership gap. As far as the other options in the $10K range go, I’m not seeing a whole lot of difference between Tony Finau, Viktor Hovland, and Collin Morikawa. I have them all hovering in the 13 to 18% range, and Morikawa would be my preferred option of that group. Max Homa is the true leverage play of the higher priced options, and I WILL be playing him. Homa and Spieth are my two guys at the top this week and I feel great about it. I don’t even remotely believe that Homa is as far off as public perception would suggest, and he’s an excellent option at an even 10%.

• $9K: I’ve already alluded to Jordan Spieth multiple times in this article by now, and I do believe that he will be the highest owned player in this range at around 19 or 20%. What surprises me is the lack of a gap between this next group of Sungjae Im, Justin Rose, and Tommy Fleetwood. I have Sungjae, Rose, and Fleetwood all in the 16 to 20% zone. Personally, I’m not playing any of those three. I love Spieth and I actually really love the lower-owned options at the bottom of the $9K range in Chris Kirk and Si Woo Kim. I’m not surprised by Rose or Fleetwood’s ownership, but Sungjae still hovering in the 17% range after disappointing so many at the PGA Championship is a bit curious. I have the aforementioned Kirk at around nine to 10%, and Si Woo at an even seven percent. I would actually endorse both. Sam Burns in the high single digits is intriguing as well, but I have serious concerns about his ball-striking form. That’s still too low of a number for a player of his caliber though, and he is certainly worth a look as well.

• $8K: A ton of leverage can always be found in the $8K range, and this week is no different. Let’s start with the higher owned options however and work our way down. I have Rickie Fowler and Cameron Davis both in a tier of their own this week. Readers of this column know that I am as big of a Davis fan as any, but I only play him when he’s under-owned. If you’re jumping on the Davis bandwagon this week, just know that you’re buying him at an all-time high, coming off a final round 65 on Sunday at a major. The young Australian’s stock has never been higher, and who knows, it may still go up, but removing bias from the equation, this is not the type of spot for a player I tend to like. Fowler, on the other hand, is coming off a missed cut at the PGA Championship as a popular option, but that has not remotely quelled the interest in him this week. It feels a bit much for me, especially when there are some really solid options in this range at half the ownership. I have no problems with a 10% Stephan Jaeger. He’s not my favorite play in the range, but you could do a lot worse. No issues with a 10% Russell Henley either. One, if not both will be in my pool. I’ve already discussed my love for both K.H. Lee and Brian Harman, who will both fall between five and eight percent. Denny McCarthy, Tom Hoge, Min Woo Lee, and Taylor Moore are also options that will all come in below 10 or 11%, so you really have your pick of the litter this week in the eights.

• $7K: Ownership actually appears to be fairly spread out this week in the $7K range. I’m not sure that I see a single player crossing the 15% threshold. The players that should find themselves in the double digits include Emiliano Grillo, Hayden Buckley, Eric Cole, and possibly Brendon Todd and Christiaan Bezuidenhout. Of that group, Cole and Bezuidenhout would be my preferred options. After that, there are SO many great options at low ownership towards the bottom of this range. I’ll share a few bangers: J.T. Poston, Nick Taylor, and Joel Dahmen, amongst others. I really wouldn’t be too concerned about ownership with anyone other than the players I mentioned at the top.

• $6K: People are definitely congregating around some of the same names down here. I’m still not sure I see anyone down here getting to 10%, but Ben Martin, Austin Eckroat, Akshay Bhatia, Dylan Wu, and Carson Young, could all eclipse 5%. Of that group, I would certainly favor Eckroat and Bhatia. No one else really has much of a chance to clear five percent, not even Michael Block!