I have long been a Collin Morikawa fan. No, I would not say that he is the most enigmatic or engaging presence on the golf course or in the media center, but there’s something romantic about his craft. Morikawa is the antidote to the distance revolution in modern professional golf. He almost feels from a bygone era. One of the last great ball-strikers who need not swing out of his shoes to bring a golf course to its knees.
In recent years, we’ve seen the power and speed revolution take hold in all sports. If Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland are Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, Collin Morikawa is Drew Brees. There’s nothing overly ostentatious about the way that Drew Brees played football. He never took the top off of defenses, but at his best, Brees was still impossible to stop. Eight yard crossing route after after eight yard crossing route, leaving the defense on the field for ten minute drives. There was a monotonous quality to it, and it didn’t create a lot of highlights, but it did win football games. There’s a similar surgical approach to way that Collin Morikawa plays golf. It’s a style of golf that feels increasingly old-fashioned in the age of Bryson DeChambeau and Rory McIlroy. Some may find this fairway-green-fairway-green approach dull and repetitive, and maybe it is. I can’t imagine a more demoralizing style of play to compete against. There are many excellent golfer that can drive the ball 50 yards longer than Morikawa, and yet he has a shorter birdie putt than them on every hole.
While Collin Morikawa had a statistically strong 2023, it’s hard not view last season as a disappointment when placed in the context of his prior success. In 2021 and 2022, the Los Angeles native won five times, including the 2020 PGA Championship and 2021 Open Championship. Morikawa’s victory last week at the Zozo Championship was his first since the DP World Tour Championship in November of 2021. Over the last two years, Morikawa has still played brilliant golf, with 21 top-20 finishes in 47 starts. Yet he has still been passed by players such as Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland in the hierarchy of most promising stars of the next decade. Despite the lack of trophies, Morikawa actually improved from a statistical standpoint in 2023. It was the best ball-striking season of his career, and he gained 1.92 strokes per round, over a quarter of a stroke better than his pace in 2020 and 2021 when he won five times and two majors. How it possible that Morikawa improved as a golfer, but fell backwards in the discussion of best players in the world?
The answer is quite simple. At the end of the day, we remember trophies, not cumulative strokes gained metrics. Thus, when projecting out Morikawa’s prospects in 2023, there’s a strong statistical argument that he’s one of the most likely positive regression win candidates if he is able to maintain his current baseline.
It was fascinating to hear Morikawa opine after winning the Zozo about how much he was searching to find his game over the last 24 months. Statistically, this has been the best he’s hit the ball in his career! The only reason that he felt short in the trophy department was because he had a very difficult time pairing up his elite putting weeks with his elite approach weeks. Morikawa’s five best iron weeks of 2023 came at the Farmer’s Insurance Open, the Players Championship, the Wells Fargo Championship, the Memorial Tournament, and the Tour Championship. The only tournament of those where he gained over two strokes putting was the Memorial, where he withdraw with illness prior to the final round.
Morikawa really only had one elite putting performance all season, and it came at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, where he was clipped by an all-time Jon Rahm performance. Morikawa has gained over four strokes putting eight other times in his career. In those 8 starts, he has seven top-fives, three runner-ups, and three wins. With how solid of a ball-striker that Morikawa is, if he can cross the +4 strokes putting threshold, there’s almost a 90% chance that he’s going to finish in the top-five, and a 75% that he’ll finish first or second.
Circling back to the Drew Brees comparison, Morikawa may be the only current player that doesn’t need to chase distance to be the best in the world. His skill on approach is actually more correlated with success than most players’ elite distance. The most important range on approach on the PGA Tour is 150 to 200 yards. In the last 12 months, Morikawa has hit 406 shots from the fairway between 150 and 200 yards. He’s in the 97th percentile in strokes gained per shot, the 99th percentile in proximity to the hole, the 96th percentile in greens in regulation, and the 96th percentile in poor shot avoidance. This is, bar none, the most sustainable method to win golf tournaments on the PGA Tour. When it comes to major championships however, approach shots from greater than 200 yards become increasingly important. Morikawa is not quite as dominant with his long irons, but over the last 12 months (based on 202 shots from over 200 yards), he still ranks in the 93rd percentile in strokes gained per shot, the 93rd percentile in proximity to the hole, the 78th percentile in greens in regulation, and the 81st percentile in poor shot avoidance.
Potentially the strangest Morikawa stat is that he ranks in the fourth percentile in greens in regulation on approach shots from the rough under 150 yards, and in the 24th percentile in strokes gained per shot from that range. Even more perplexing is that he’s fairly serviceable on long iron approach shots from the rough, ranking in the 63rd percentile in strokes gained per shot on approach shots from the rough from over 150 yards. Morikawa’s approach play from the rough is a weakness certainly worth improving, but it’s also worth noting that he’s one of the most accurate drivers of the ball on Tour.
In conclusion, the sweet spot for Morikawa is golf courses where we can ensure that he is going to hit a ton of approach shots from the fairway from 150 to 200 yards. This was the case at Narashino, where he led the field in driving accuracy on a golf course that featured a ton of middle iron approach shots. This was also the case at the Concession, the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai, the Open Championship at Royal St. George’s, and the PGA Championship at Harding Park. These are all golf courses where Morikawa ranked toward the top of the field in driving accuracy on courses with a large plurality of approach shots from 150-200 yards.
In 2024, Morikawa should be a look at any golf course with a large plurality of approach shots from 150-200 yards. If we can ensure that he’s going to be playing from the fairway on those courses, I can say with near certainty that he will contend. So what courses fall into this category? Here is the list of golf courses that Morikawa has played in his career that feature over a 60% driving accuracy percentage and over 30% of approach shots come from between 150 and 200 yards:
- Kapalua (T7, T7, T5, 2)
- Augusta (T44, T18, 5, T10)
- Concession (WIN)
- Caves Valley (T63)
- Sherwood (T50)
- Summit Club (T2)
- TPC River Highlands (T36, MC, MC)
- TPC Twin Cities (T2)
- Muirfield Village (WIN, T48, 2, MC)
- TPC Summerlin (MC, T42)
In 22 starts over the last five years on these golf courses with a high driving accuracy percentage and large plurality of approach shots from 150-200 yards, Morikawa has made 18 cuts, with 10 top-10s, 8 top-5s, 4 runner-ups, and 2 wins. His top-five rate on these golf courses is 36%, up from his career percentage of 21%. Morikawa raises his contention rate by 15% on golf courses that ensure he will be playing mid irons from the fairway!
Ultimately, Morikawa remains one of the safest bets to be a feature in the World Top-10 over the next decade due to the correlation of his elite skill (approach play from 150-200 yards) with such a high degree of PGA Tour courses. It’s highly likely that he finishes his career with at least one green jacket, as Augusta features a 71% driving accuracy percentage, and 39% of approach shots come from 150 to 200 yards. While the win luck gods did not do him any favors over the last 24 months, Morikawa’s future remains as bright as any.
