By Andy Lack

2023 Course Breakdown: Everything You Need to Know About Augusta National 

The Basics 

• Course: Augusta National
• Location: Augusta, Georgia
• Designer: Bobby Jones & Alister MacKenzie (1933)
• Length: Par 72; 7,545 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on five holes
• Fairways: Rye-grass
• Rough: 1.38 inches Rye-grass
• Greens: 6,486 square feet with Bent-grass and run 14 on the Stimpmeter

It’s here! The Masters Tournament is the first major championship of the year, held annually during the first full week of April. It has been hosted at Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Georgia since its inception in 1934. The field at The Masters is smaller than any of the other three majors because it is an invitational event, composed of between 90 and 100 players. After 36 holes of play, the top 50 and ties will advance to the weekend. Should the fourth round fail to produce a winner, all players tied will enter a sudden death playoff, which rotates between the 18th and 10th holes. Here’s how the tournament has played out over the past decade.

Former Winners 

• • 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-10) over Rory McIlroy (-7)
  • 2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-10) over Will Zalatoris (-9)
  • 2020: Dustin Johnson (-20) over Sungjae Im, Cameron Smith (-15)
  • 2019: Tiger Woods (-13) over Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Xander Schauffele (-12)
  • 2018: Patrick Reed (-15) over Rickie Fowler (-14)
  • 2017: Sergio Garcia (-9) over Justin Rose (-9) (Playoff)
  • 2016: Danny Willett (-5) over Jordan Spieth, Lee Westwood (-2)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-18) over Phil Mickelson, Justin Rose (-14)
  • 2014: Bubba Watson (-8) over Jonas Blixt, Jordan Spieth (-5)
  • 2013: Adam Scott (-9) over Angel Cabrera (-9) (Playoff)
  • 2012: Bubba Watson (-10) over Louis Oosthuizen (-10) (Playoff)

 

Course & Course Changes 

The character of The Masters tournament is of course defined by Augusta National, arguably the most recognizable golf course on the planet and one that is constantly evolving. 2022 saw significant course changes with two holes on the back nine being lengthened and re-modeled. The 11th hole was given a new tee box, which lengthened the already challenging par four to 520 yards. The fairway was also re-contoured and widened by 15 yards, as trees down the right side of the fairway were removed. More rough on the right was also removed and replaced by short grass. The 15th hole, the final par five on the course, was also lengthened by 20 yards with a new re-contoured fairway. The 9th and 10th holes also had re-contouring work done to their fairways. New green surfaces were added to the 3rd, 13th, and 17th holes all in 2022 as well.

2023 added additional changes, most notably the par-five 13th hole, where a new tee box was installed, adding 35 yards to the hole. The 13th hole now measures 545 yards and will still be reachable by many players in two shots, but the long-iron second shot will offer far more of a decision with Rae’s Creek still guarding the front of the putting surface.

Work was also done on the fourth and seventh greens, shaping a lot of the edges, which is a normal maintenance for most greens that are surrounded by bunkers. The sand splashes out and creates a build-up, rounding the edges of the putting surface, which were now flattened. The added distance now tips the course out to the 7,545 yards, and it plays even longer given the fact that the fairways are mown against the hole direction, limiting run-out. Before we dive into the stats, there are a number of important trends that should help create some insight into what boxes a player must check this week.

Trends 

• 9 of the past 10 winners were under the age of 40. So yes, experience matters, but after a certain point, this is not a tournament generally won by older players.
• Every single one of the last 10 winners were in the top 30 in the official world golf rankings. Eight of them were in the top 20.
• Eight of the last 10 winners have played in at least three Masters. There has not been a first-time champion since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Jordan Spieth and Danny Willett both won in their second appearance.
• Every single one of the last 10 winners had finished in the top 30 in at least one of their last two starts leading into Augusta. Seven of the last 10 winners had a top-five in a stroke play event in the same or previous month as the Masters. The main outlier who had the worst recent form over the past decade was Hideki Matsuyama, who had zero top-10s in 10 PGA Tour events leading in, but he was still the 25th-ranked player in the world. He was coming off a 30th at the Valero Texas Open the week before, a group-stage exit at the Match Play, and a missed cut at the Players, yet he was really the exception to the rule. Last year’s champion, Scottie Scheffler, won in Phoenix at the Arnold Palmer Invitational as well as the Match Play, becoming the World No. 1 in the process. Most Masters winners did not carry the lead-in form as Scheffler, but there was usually a middle ground. Dustin Johnson already had three wins and seven top-10s that year. Tiger Woods had two top-10s in 2019 already. Patrick Reed had three top-10s in 2018 including a recent 2nd at the Valspar and 9th at the WGC Match Play. Sergio Garcia had won earlier in 2017. Danny Willett had won earlier in 2016. Jordan Spieth had won earlier in 2015 and already boasted six top-10s to his name that season. Bubba Watson had won already at Riviera, posting an additional three top-10s. The list goes on, essentially explaining the reason why we have not had a Masters winner greater than 66/1 in the last decade. If we are just going off history, the cut-off on the odds board in terms of players that can actually win the Masters is essentially the Justin Rose, Shane Lowry, Tom Kim, Tommy Fleetwood zone. I know it’s fun to find juicy numbers on capable players, but historically, those in the triple digits are generally not winning this event.
• Nine of the last 10 winners have posted a top-six in a major in one of the previous two seasons. Even Danny Willett finished sixth at the Open just two majors before winning the Masters.
• If you’re thinking of backing Sam Burns or whoever wins this week at the Valero, only Phil Mickelson in the last two decades won the week before the Masters, as well as the main event.

 

Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • Last year, 16.8% of strokes gained came off the tee, which is above the Tour average of 15.2%.
  • Last year, Augusta ranked 18th out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalty, 23rd out of 38 courses in rough penalty, and 28th out of 38 courses in non-rough penalty. By the numbers, the easiest strokes-gained aspect of Augusta is still off the tee due to the amount of room that players have to operate, the lack of thick rough and absence of too many water hazards.
  • Every year, we debate how much distance actually matters at Augusta. Zach Johnson famously won here in 2007, never hitting the par fives in two strokes, yet Johnson has proven to be the anomaly. My friend Steve Bamford acutely pointed out in his Masters preview that every winner since 2008 has been in the top 35% of distance to apex. Distance to apex is not a perfect stat, but it does measure the distance in yards from the tee to the apex of a drive on measured par four and par five tee shots. The reality of the situation is that Augusta now plays as one of, if not the longest course on Tour, so those with a high carry distance do possess a distinct advantage. When we really dive in, Zach Johnson is the huge outlier, as those who have consistently been able to reach the par fives in two shots do possess a huge advantage. This doesn’t just mean carry distance but also long iron play. Augusta features at least three par fives that are reachable by some but not all players, which increases the amount that distance plays a factor. The longest players in this field are Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young, Cameron Champ, Jon Rahm, Min Woo Lee, Will Zalatoris, Keith Mitchell, Dustin Johnson, Gary Woodland, and Bryson DeChambeau. 
  • Patrick Cantlay recently discussed how currently there isn’t a hole on the golf course where the strategy is not to bomb away with driver. Recent changes have made the course so long that shot-shaping actually matters less. For example, the fifth hole used to be an example of a hole where it was advantageous to be able to turn over a 3-wood, but now the hole is 500-plus yards dead straight. Changes have taken a lot of the playability out of the bunkers, and those on five are now essentially pitch-out bunkers that are 50-60 yards farther away from the green than they used to be. Thus, the main strategy of the hole is now just two hard and high shots into the green. Point being, as Augusta continues to evolve, it has become a golf course where shot-making is less essential and pure power is more advantageous. 

• Approach 
  • Last year, 35.9% of strokes gained came on approach, which is above the Tour average of 34.7%. Augusta National is commonly referred to as a second shot golf course because the width of its fairways creates a situation where most players are generally able to play from the short grass, thus placing the emphasis on the second shot.
  • ANGC ranked second out of 38 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty last year.
  • Despite featuring large 6,400 square-foot greens, Augusta still featured the fourth-most difficult greens to hit on the PGA Tour. It’s the toughest approach course on the PGA Tour inside 150 yards and is the second-toughest on the PGA Tour from greater than 150 yards.
  • Augusta National is definitively a mid- to long-iron course. 20.2% of approach shots come from 150-175 yards, 17.3% of approach shots come from 175-200 yards, and 32.4% of approach shots come from 200 yards-plus. The most exaggerated difference compared to Tour average is 200 yards-plus, as Augusta National is one of the most long-iron-intensive courses on Tour.
  • The best long-term players from 150-200 yards are Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Tom Hoge, Kevin Na, Justin Rose, Viktor Hovland, Cameron Young, Scottie Scheffler, Abraham Ancer, and Hideki Matsuyama. 
  • The best long-term players from 200 yards-plus are Gary Woodland, Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland, Shane Lowry, Tom Hoge, Kurt Kitayama, Xander Schauffele, and Rory McIlroy. 

• Around the Green 
  • Last year, 20.8% of strokes gained at Augusta National came around the green, which is comfortably above the Tour average of 14.5%, one of the highest marks that you will see at a PGA Tour course all season.
  • Augusta ranked fourth out of 38 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty, and the prior year it ranked first out of 40 courses on Tour in those same categories.
  • Last year it featured the second-toughest around-the-green difficulty from the fairway, 25th toughest around-the-green difficulty from the rough, and 21st toughest around-the-green difficulty from the bunkers. Due to the expansive collection areas, chipping off tight lies from the fairway is incredibly important.
  • I can’t over-emphasize how important around-the-green play is at Augusta. In 2021, seven of the top 10 finishers ranked in the top 10 for strokes gained around the green, while last year, eight of the top 11 finishers were in the top 12 in strokes gained around the green.
  • The top overall around-the-green players in this field are Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood, Talor Gooch, Patrick Reed, Danny Willett, Hideki Matsuyama, Louis Oosthuizen, Jason Day, K.H. Lee, and Jordan Spieth. 

• Putting 
  • Last year, 26.5% of strokes gained came with the flat-stick, which is well below the Tour average of 35.6%, so Augusta is one of the least putting dependent courses on the PGA Tour.
  • It’s also the hardest. Last year, Augusta National ranked as the hardest putting course on the PGA Tour. It ranked 17th out of 38 courses in putting inside five feet, first in putting from five to 15 feet, and first in putting from 15 feet plus. Augusta is definitively the most challenging mid to lag putting course on the PGA Tour. A lot of this has to do with the fact that it features the fastest greens on the PGA Tour, which can get up to 14 mph on the Stimp, depending on the conditions. The best fast green putters in this field are Max Homa, Sam Burns, Tyrrell Hatton, Bryson DeChambeau, Harris English, Keegan Bradley, Cameron Smith, Tony Finau, Jon Rahm, and Matt Fitzpatrick. 
  • Outside of the speed, the real challenge of Augusta’s greens is the undulation. Alister Mackenzie is famous for his subtle internal breaks and the character he provides to his greens. Whether it be Valley Club or Pasatiempo, Mackenzie greens are amongst the most engaging (and confusing) I’ve ever putted on. I have a working theory that players who use aim point might actually have a leg up at Augusta. Off the top of my head, Max Homa, Viktor Hovland, and Keegan Bradley are all aim point guys. Hovland has putted quite well here for what it’s worth.
  • Of course, Augusta’s greens are a pure Bent-grass after switching from Bermuda in 1978. The best long-term Bent-grass putters in this field are Patrick Cantlay, Jason Kokrak, Alex Noren, Rory McIlroy, Sam Burns, Harris English, Justin Rose, Cameron Smith, Mackenzie Hughes, and Xander Schauffele. 
  • Finally, I’ve already referenced how Augusta is the hardest course on the PGA Tour in putting from greater than 15 feet. Approach putting measures the distance players leave themselves on lag putts. This is a skill that remains incredibly important at Augusta National. The best lag putters in this field are Talor Gooch, Cameron Smith, Tyrrell Hatton, Chris Kirk, Keegan Bradley, Xander Schauffele, Abraham Ancer, Patrick Reed, Jason Kokrak, and Scottie Scheffler. 
  • Yet still, how do we reconcile the countless examples of below-average putters winning the Masters on a golf course that statistically ranks as the hardest putting course on Tour?
    • For starters, players such as Adam Scott and Hideki Matsuyama that have typically struggled with the flat-stick over the course of their career at a macro level, at least significantly raise their baseline on Bent-grass greens.
    • Secondly, whether or not a player is a “good” overall putter is not necessarily predictive of whether or not a player will putt well at Augusta. These greens are so incredibly nuanced that course experience is almost more predictive than general putting stats. How else do we explain Will Zalatoris gaining over five strokes putting in both appearances at Augusta, while ranking as an overall below-average putter.
    • Still, at the end of the day, ball-striking is the name of the game at Augusta, and I remain underweight on overall putting every year. Last year, zero players in the top five also finished in the top five in strokes gained putting.

• Scoring Stats 
  • I’ve already to the alluded to the importance of taking advantage of the par fives on this course, and the best par-five scorers in this field are Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, Cameron Smith, Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Jon Rahm, and Tony Finau. 
  • I have no issue with looking at other scoring stats such as scrambling and bogey avoidance as well as strokes gained in difficult scoring conditions, but I chose to allocate my weights to more tangible skill-sets and course experience.

• Comp Courses/Course History 
  • Augusta National has the most predictive course history out of any course on the PGA Tour and it’s not particularly close. Something that many players have talked about is how Augusta is a course where there’s always something to learn. Not to mention the fact that the golf course is always evolving. Even the last two years there has been a ton of changes, and there are multiple aspects of the course this year that are different from last year. I’m even heavier on driving distance and long iron play than I was last year! Yet still, much of the reason why course history is so important is because these remain the most nuanced greens on Tour. As already alluded to in the putting section, a statistically “poor” putter who has played Augusta five times is more likely to putt well at Augusta than a statistically strong putter who is a debutant. It’s not just the greens that speak to the importance of experience. Being able to read the wind at Augusta is incredibly important as well, particularly on holes like No. 12. There’s a reason why seven of the last 10 champions have already posted a previous top-five finish at The Masters. The players with the best course history in this field are Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Justin Rose, Scottie Scheffler, Will Zalatoris, Cameron Smith, and Jordan Spieth. 
  • If we are looking for players that may not have a ton of experience at Augusta, but have performed well on courses that have crossover success, I would certainly point to Kapalua, host of the Sentry Tournament of Champions. The Coore and Crenshaw design is another course where players can bomb away off the tee and will still have a ton of long irons. Kapalua also features extremely undulating fairways where players will rarely be faced with a flat lie. The biggest difference at Kapalua is that the greens are slow, but Coore and Crenshaw are up there with Doak as the best modern designers of greens. The best players in this field at Kapalua have been Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Joaquin Niemann, Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele, Tiger Woods, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, and Cameron Smith. Unsurprisingly, many of these players have had loads of success at Augusta as well.
  • Riviera is another golf course that is a fair reference point due to the fact that it favors length off the tee, strong mid to long iron play, and a deft touch around the greens. I would almost suggest at this point that Riviera is more of a shot-maker’s course than Augusta, but still, the top-six players in strokes gained total at Riviera have been Adam Scott, Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Xander Schauffele. Those 6 players have combined for 40 top-25s, 26 top-10s, 4 runner-ups, and 6 wins at Augusta National.
  • Finally, Jack Nicklaus has spoken openly about how Muirfield Village, host of the Memorial Tournament, drew tons of inspiration from Augusta National. Former Masters winners and runners-up who have also experienced loads of success at Muirfield Village include Jon Rahm, Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose, Hideki Matsuyama, Matt Kuchar, Tiger Woods, Kenny Penny, Zach Johnson, and Fred Couples.

Model 

• Off the Tee (10%)
  • Driving Distance (10%)
• Approach (34%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (12%)
  • Long-term Proximity 150-175 yards (6%)
  • Long-term Proximity 175-200 yards (6%)
  • Long-term Proximity 200 yards (10%)
• Around the Green (15%)
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green (15%)
• Putting (14%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Bent-grass (5%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Fast Greens (5%)
  • Approach Putting (4%)
• Scoring Stats (6%)
  • Par 5 Scoring (6%)
• Comp Courses/Course History (21%)
  • Augusta National (12%)
  • Kapalua (3%)
  • Riviera (3%)
  • Muirfield Village (3%)

Model Top 20 

1. Jon Rahm
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Xander Schauffele
4. Scottie Scheffler
5. Tony Finau
6. Cameron Smith
7. Justin Thomas
8. Jordan Spieth
9. Patrick Cantlay
10. Collin Morikawa
11. Max Homa
12. Will Zalatoris
13. Sungjae Im
14. Dustin Johnson
15. Justin Rose
16. Talor Gooch
17. Hideki Matsuyama
18. Harold Varner III
19. Jason Day
20. Mito Pereira

 

Best of luck this week – AL