2023 Course Breakdown: Everything You Need to Know About Austin Country Club

The Basics 

• Course: Austin Country Club
• Location: Austin, Texas
• Designer: Pete Dye (1984), with a Rod Whitman (2015) renovation. There was also a full course bunker renovation and re-grassing of tees in 2019.
• Length: Par 71; 7,108 yards
• Hazards: Water comes into play on 7 holes
• Fairways: Perennial ryegrass/fescue blend over-seeded
• Rough: Tifway 419 Bermuda-grass 2 inches
• Greens: Poa trivialis over-seed

 

The WGC Dell Technologies Match Play has been on the PGA Tour schedule since 1999, and it is the only match-play-style tournament on the PGA Tour. It has been held at Austin Country Club since 2016, and reports have unfortunately been that the event will be discontinued from next year’s schedule, bringing an end to match play on the PGA Tour. The PGA Championship used to be match play all the way up until 1958, but the format fell out of favor with the growth of television.

The PGA Tour wanted to bring match play back in some capacity in 1999, but the event lacked any semblance of momentum until it moved to Dove Mountain in 2007. Many of the world’s best players turned down playing in the event and it had a hard time getting off the ground until the move to Arizona, which coincided with Tiger Woods’ attendance. Once Tiger started playing, many of the other world’s best followed suit. The purse began to rise, and Arizona was a very convenient location for many PGA Tour pros. From 2007 onward, this event has boasted one of the stronger fields in golf. Yet still, there were weather issues in Arizona and very few fans were showing up to the tournament. In 2015, the Tour decided to reboot the event and move it to Harding Park in San Francisco. They also changed the format so the field was split into 16 four-player groups played on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, with the player with the best record advancing. The four knockout rounds were then split over Saturday and Sunday. They basically did this so the spectators could at least see the whole field for the first three days. The tournament did not want a situation where one of their stars were eliminated early on Wednesday morning. Yet after just one year in California, the tournament moved to March with a new long-term home, Austin Country Club, and a new sponsor, Dell Technologies, which are also conveniently located in Austin. Since 2016, here are the players that have won at our current venue:

• 2022: Scottie Scheffler (5) over Kevin Kisner (29)
• 2021: Billy Horschel (32) over Scottie Scheffler (30)
• 2020: COVID
• 2019: Kevin Kisner (48) over Matt Kuchar (23)
• 2018: Bubba Watson (35) over Kevin Kisner (32)
• 2017: Dustin Johnson (1) over Jon Rahm (21)
• 2016: Jason Day (2) over Louis Oosthuizen (16)

While this tournament does often feel like a bit of a crapshoot, we’ve never had a player above 80/1 win in the last decade, and only two players above 50/1 have won in the last decade as well. If this trend continues, that knocks out pretty much half the field, if not more. We’ve seen some longshots go on some nice runs, and there are certainly a ton of upsets in the group stage, but the tournament is often won by at least a mid-tier, if not elite player.

One more formatting note before we dive into the course: the field is comprised of the top 64 players in the official world golf ranking. If anyone in the top 64 doesn’t participate, then the next-highest-ranked player slides into his spot. A few of the players ranked between 64-70 will receive an opportunity this year due to the fact that all LIV players still in the top 64 will not be competing. The 64 players are then split into 16 groups of four players, and each group is seeded. All groups will play a round-robin format over Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. One point is rewarded for a win, a half point is rewarded for a tie, and the player with the most points after he plays everyone in his group will move on to the round of 16. If two or more players are tied at the top of the group in points, there is a sudden-death stroke play tie-breaker to decide who advances. Once we get the 16 group winners, the round of 16 and quarterfinals are contested on Saturday, and the semifinals, the third-place match, and the final are held on Sunday. Let’s dive into the course!

Austin Country Club was designed in 1984 by Pete Dye. It’s a par 71 measuring just 7,108 yards on the scorecard. A few holes on the back nine flank Lake Austin, and it is an extremely fun course for match play that very much rewards hero-style play. In preparation for the 2016 event, the golf course underwent a big restoration and the greens were re-laid with TifEagle Bermuda-grass, overseeded with the same Poa Trivialis that we have grown accustomed to over the first couple months of the season at courses such as TPC Sawgrass, Innisbrook, TPC Scottsdale, and PGA West. The fairways are Bermuda-grass over-seeded with a perennial rye-grass/fescue blend, and the rough is Bermuda-grass measuring just 2 inches. The rough is not very thick here and will be far from an issue for players. The greens are only 5,500 square feet on average, some of the smallest on Tour, and there are 110 bunkers in play on the property. Caution off the tee is still required, as water does come into play on seven separate holes.

The course’s greatest defense is often the wind, and in calm conditions, it’s actually extremely benign. Pete Dye courses are always tricked up with visual intimidation, but this is not a long golf course, and pretty much every hole is designed to give players an opportunity to make birdie. You can absolutely get yourself in trouble here as well, but if a stroke play event was held at this golf course, I do believe the winning score would be north of 20-under par.

When running through the actual layout of the course, it is by no means imposing, and I liken it to many other shorter Pete Dye courses such as Harbour Town, PGA West, TPC River Highlands, and TPC Sawgrass. All four of the par threes measure under 201 yards, but that does not mean that they are easy. The 201-yard seventh hole plays as the third-toughest on the course, the 194-yard 11th plays as the sixth-toughest hole on the course, and the 185-yard fourth ranks as the seventh-toughest hole on the course. In terms of the par fours, the 13th is drivable, and players will face their fair share of short iron approaches, as five par fours measure under 400 yards. Oddly enough, there are zero par fours between 400 and 440 yards, but six par fours that measure between 440 and 500 yards. Do not be deceived by the number on the scorecard, as there is some hidden yardage on this course. When I ran through the proximity distances, the bucket that actually stood out the most as higher than Tour average was 175-200 yards, as six of those medium to longer par fours, as well as two of the par threes, could yield an approach shot from that range. There are three par fives on the course and they all measure between 560 and 590 yards and should be reachable in two by most players. The three par fives present the best scoring opportunities and play as the three easiest holes on the course, all featuring a birdie rate of over 40% and an eagle rate of over 2.5%.

One final point I will bring up before we dive into specifically what I’m looking for is that I will not be really entertaining the question of whether or not a player is a “good match play player,” based on their Ryder Cup or Presidents Cup performances. Course history at this event is certainly something I would pay attention to, but keep in mind that the Ryder Cup is such an isolated and different tournament with such a distinctive environment and atmosphere and is usually held on a much different golf course. I know that Pete Dye designed Whistling Straits as well, but that course is 800 yards longer than Austin CC and places a huge emphasis on power off the tee and long iron play. This is why the Kevin Kisner Ryder Cup arguments always fell so flat for me. Kisner is a good match play guy when he’s on a 7,000-yard Bermuda-grass course, which doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s going to be a good match play guy when he’s on a 7,800 yard course with a long iron in his hands on every hole. I think exception that proves the rule is Ian Poulter, who was terrible at Whistling Straits but has been incredible overall in this format. Ultimately, there is no way to quantify a player’s toughness based on his match play record in team events. There are simply too many other variables involved. I would much rather turn my attention to quantifying a player’s specific course fit at Austin Country Club, as opposed to looking at their match play records in team events held on much different courses. For example, Matt Kuchar has been awesome here but poor in Ryder Cups. Dustin Johnson, who has also won here, had a pretty mediocre Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup record. Jason Day is another example of a player who has been awesome here, but only holds a 5-11-4 Presidents Cup record. My only point is, I don’t think digging through past team event records is something worth spending a fair amount of time on this week.

Of course, there are examples of players who have been both good here and in the Ryder Cup, but I would much rather look at how a player has done in this event on this golf course. If they were also great in the Ryder Cup, Presidents Cup, or they won a match play college or amateur event, then that’s a great bonus, but it won’t be enough to put me on or off a guy. I’m more so looking at how a player fits on this specific golf course. In fact, I would look at corollary course performance over previous match play experience. Billy Horschel won at TPC Louisiana, another Pete Dye over-seeded Bermuda course, before claiming victory in Austin. Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson both won at TPC River Highlands, another short, positional Pete Dye track before their victories at Austin CC Brian Harman has been great at this event while also holding an immaculate record at TPC Sawgrass and TPC River Highlands. Last year’s champion, Scottie Scheffler, just won at TPC Sawgrass a week ago. Kevin Kisner has a win at Colonial, and Scottie Scheffler has a playoff loss at Colonial, another short positional Texas track that bears great resemblance to Austin CC.

Recent form is also worth paying attention to. In 2016, Jason Day, came in really hot, winning the prior week. DJ came in really hot as well, going third-win-win before winning the Match Play. Bubba Watson had a win in his last three starts. Kevin Kisner had five top-30 finishes in a row prior to his win, and Billy Horschel had a runner-up in one of his last three starts. Of course, Scottie Scheffler, last year’s champion, had won two of his last three starts before raising the trophy in Austin. So ultimately, while I want to identify players that have played well both at Austin CC and the corollary courses, recent form is far and away the safest guiding light in our decision-making process. Let’s dive into the stats.

 Stats 

• Off the Tee 
  • When scanning through the hole images and player quotes from Austin CC and other shorter Pete Dye courses, the one key point I would bring up is that positioning oneself on the correct side of the hole is often more important than hitting the actual fairway. Especially at Austin Country Club, the two-inch Bermuda rough won’t be scaring anyone. Not to mention the fact that on such a short course, players may not feel obligated to hit driver. For this reason, I will primarily be looking closely at players who gain the most strokes off the tee on shorter courses. The best players off the tee on shorter courses in this field are Sungjae Im, Corey Conners, Keith Mitchell, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Cameron Davis, Tony Finau, Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, and Sam Burns. 

• Approach 
  • Iron play is the name of the game at any Pete Dye course, and Austin Country Club is no different. With a lack of proximity stats, we can only project based on previous iterations and hole yardages where the plurality of approach shots will be coming from. When I ran through hole by hole to try and get an estimate of where the proximity buckets fall, this is what I came up with:
    • 0-50 yards: 5.5% (Tour average: 4.3%)
    • 50-100 yards: 11.1% (Tour average: 6.2%)
    • 100-125 yards: 11.1% (Tour average: 11.8%)
    • 125-150 yards: 16.7% (Tour average: 17.0%)
    • 150-175 yards: 11.1% (Tour average: 20.3%)
    • 175-200 yards: 22.2% (Tour average: 17.5%)
    • 200 yards plus: 22.2% (Tour average: 22.9%)
  • The biggest discrepancy compared to the Tour average is actually 175-200 yards, which should feature at least four approach shots per round given the fact that two of the four par threes fall into this bucket and six par fours fall between 440 and 500 yards. The best players in this field from this range have been Si Woo Kim, Tony Finau, Tom Hoge, Kurt Kitayama, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood, and Keegan Bradley. 

• Around the Green 
  • With only 5,500-square-foot greens, players will certainly have to rely on their short games here. The best players in this field around the green on Bermuda-grass courses are Matt Kuchar, Danny Willett, Chris Kirk, Tommy Fleetwood, Scottie Scheffler, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Si Woo Kim, Jason Day, Mackenzie Hughes, and Russell Henley.
  • Austin Country Club also features a whopping 110 bunkers on property, so sand saves was a stat that I also felt deserved some attention. The best bunker players in this field are Matt Kuchar, Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama, Andrew Putnam, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, J.T. Poston, Ben Griffin, Si Woo Kim, Shane Lowry, and Brendon Todd. 

• Putting 
  • Austin Country Club features the same over-seeded blend of TifEagle Bermuda-grass that we have grown accustomed to seeing at the Stadium Course at PGA West, TPC Scottsdale, Innisbrook, and TPC Sawgrass. The best putters in this field on over-seeded Bermuda are Tyrrell Hatton, Sam Burns, Taylor Montgomery, Andrew Putnam, Maverick McNealy, Alex Noren, Kevin Kisner, Brendon Todd, Aaron Wise, and Ben Griffin. 

• Scoring Stats 
  • Birdies are the name of the game in match play, and 50% of Austin Country Club’s holes feature over a 20% birdie rate! Players have made birdie a whopping 52% of the time at the Par 5 sixth hole, and all three of the par fives at Austin Country Club feature over a 2% eagle rate. The players in this field who make the most birdies are Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau, Taylor Montgomery, Cameron Young, Patrick Cantlay, Will Zalatoris, Max Homa, Scottie Scheffler, and Tom Hoge. 
  • Opportunities Gained is a metric that measures the percentage of holes where players give themselves a birdie look inside 15 feet. Identifying the players that consistently put themselves in position to score will be crucial at this event. The players that have given themselves the most birdie looks inside 15 feet over the last year have been Tom Hoge, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Davis Riley, Scottie Scheffler, Corey Conners, Kurt Kitayama, Si Woo Kim, Tony Finau, and Cameron Davis. 

• Comp Courses/Course History 
  • Austin Country Club bears a lot of similarities with a number of other short, Pete Dye over-seeded Bermuda-grass courses that place an emphasis on positioning off the tee. The strongest one that comes to mind is Harbour Town given the fact that it features the same agronomy, designer, and hole shapes. The biggest difference is the absence of trees at Austin Country Club, but hazards are still found in the form of bunkers and water. The best players in this field at Harbour Town have been Patrick Cantlay, Matt Kuchar, J.T. Poston, Shane Lowry, Jordan Spieth, Cameron Davis, Jason Day, Matt Fitzpatrick, Seamus Power, and Alex Noren. 
  • TPC Sawgrass is another, short, positional, Pete Dye course with similar agronomy that places an emphasis on positioning and requires a great deal of patience and visual intimidation. The best players in this field at TPC Sawgrass have been Hideki Matsuyama, Tommy Fleetwood, Si Woo Kim, Viktor Hovland, Jason Day, Scottie Scheffler, Keegan Bradley, Adam Scott, Max Homa, and Shane Lowry. 
  • The Stadium Course at PGA West also checks all of those boxes and might even be more similar to Austin CC in the sense that neither PGA West nor Austin CC are as challenging as TPC Sawgrass. The best players in this field at PGA West have been Si Woo Kim, Adam Hadwin, Sungjae Im, Sam Burns, Patrick Cantlay, Andrew Putnam, Tony Finau, Brian Harman, Cameron Davis, and Jon Rahm. 
  • The only non-Pete Dye course that I believe is worth looking at is Colonial CC, another shorter, positional Texas course where players such as Scottie Scheffler and Kevin Kisner have also thrived. The best players in this field at Colonial have been Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau, Matt Kuchar, Collin Morikawa, Harris English, Brian Harman, Jon Rahm, Davis Riley, Corey Conners, and Kevin Kisner. 
  • Finally, TPC River Highlands features different agronomy, but from a design standpoint, it is incredibly similar to Austin CC. The best players in this field at TPC River Highlands have been Xander Schauffele, Brian Harman, Patrick Cantlay, Rory McIlroy, Keegan Bradley, Jason Day, Sahith Theegala, Russell Henley, Mackenzie Hughes, and Harris English. 

Model 

• Off the Tee (10%)
  • Strokes Gained Off the Tee: Less than Driver Courses (10%)
• Approach (27%)
  • Strokes Gained Approach (20%)
  • Long-term Proximity 175-200 yards (7%)
• Around the Green (8%)
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green: Bermuda-grass (4%)
  • Sand Saves (4%)
• Putting (16%)
  • Strokes Gained Putting: Over-seeded Bermuda-grass (16%)
• Scoring Stats (24%)
  • Birdies or Better Gained (12%)
  • Opportunities Gained (12%)
• Comp Course History/Course History (15%)
  • Harbour Town (3%)
  • Colonial (3%)
  • TPC Sawgrass (3%)
  • PGA West (3%)
  • TPC River Highlands (3%)

Model Top 20

1. Tony Finau
2. Jon Rahm
3. Xander Schauffele
4. Rory McIlroy
5. Scottie Scheffler
6. Tom Hoge
7. Max Homa
8. Tommy Fleetwood
9. Sungjae Im
10. Tyrrell Hatton
11. Patrick Cantlay
12. Si Woo Kim
13. Collin Morikawa
14. Viktor Hovland
15. Ben Griffin
16. Cameron Davis
17. Hideki Matsuyama
18. Cameron Young
19. Will Zalatoris
20. Kurt Kitayama

Best of luck this week – AL

 

Best of luck this week – AL