2023 Course Breakdown: Everything You Need to Know About Bay Hill

The Basics 

• Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge
• Location: Orlando, Florida
• Designer: Dick Wilson (1961) with an Arnold Palmer re-design in 2009
• Length: Par 72; measuring 7,466 yards on average
• Hazards: Water comes into play on 9 distinctive holes
• Fairways: Bermuda-grass
• Rough: Bermuda-grass over-seeded with Perennial Rye-grass measuring 3 inches
• Greens: TifEagle grass measuring 7,500 square feet

The Arnold Palmer Invitational was founded in 1979 as the successor to the Florida Citrus Open Invitational and since 1979, the event has been hosted at the iconic Bay Hill Club and Lodge. It is one of only five tournaments on the PGA Tour schedule that has an invitational status, which has come to mean that pretty much all of the best players in the world will be in attendance competing for a $20 million dollar purse, and the field has been raised to 136 players. Once again, all of the best players in the world will be in attendance, including Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Max Homa, Tony Finau, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Will Zalatoris, as well as former winners, Jason Day, Francesco Molinari, and Tyrrell Hatton. Just like we discussed last week with PGA National, Bay Hill hits on many of the same Florida tropes that immediately come to mind: flat golf course, water and bunkers everywhere, zero character to greens, play target golf and just avoid the hazards at all costs. I would say the one defining feature of Bay Hill that makes it the hardest Florida golf course on the PGA Tour is the rough. They really let it grow out here, especially in the last couple of years. It’s longer rough than what we saw at Riviera, longer than what we saw at PGA National, and most surprisingly, even longer than what we saw at Torrey Pines. It’s not quite U.S. Open rough, but it’s about as close to U.S. Open rough as we get on the regular PGA Tour schedule. The 7,500 square foot Bermuda greens run 12 on the stimp meter. The greens at Bay Hill are lightning quick. They are faster than what we saw last week at Honda, which is no slouch when it comes to green speed. Most surprisingly, I personally believe that they play faster than what we saw at Phoenix, which also ran between 11.5 and 12.5 on the stimp and are some of the faster greens on the PGA Tour. In theory, this is a harder golf course than PGA National. It plays firmer and faster, the rough is thicker, and the green complexes are more challenging. However, Bay Hill is a par 72, and par 72s in general play a lot easier than par 70s. Those two extra par fives are essential (and I will get to par five scoring later on when we get to the stats) but Bay Hill consistently plays as a top-three hardest par 72 on the PGA Tour schedule. Last year’s conditions here were so windy and firm that some pros even claimed the conditions were unfair. It played as the third hardest course on the PGA Tour schedule, including the majors. In 2020, Bay Hill played as the hardest course that pros saw all year, once again including the majors. Tyrrell Hatton won at four under par, and the greens were rock hard that year and were combined with extremely windy conditions. In 2021, it played as the sixth hardest course on the schedule, and last year, it returned to the third hardest. Over the last three years, Bay Hill has gotten a lot harder, and I do not believe that’s a coincidence. Ahead of the 2019 tournament, the club hired a new superintendent, Chris Flynn. Since he took over, the winning scores have been between 4 and 12 under par. Long gone are the days of Rory McIlroy winning this tournament at 18 under par in 2018, or Matt Every winning at 19 under par in 2015. Bay Hill is a bit of a different golf course now, as Flynn actually widened the fairways, but removed some of the rough around the hazards that would previously have prevented balls from rolling into the water. This made it far easier to hit the water or sand because of the increased shaved-off areas. In the past, the rough almost acted as a backstop. Plus, the rough that they do have, became a lot thicker. This easily explains why the course has played a fair amount harder in the past four years. So long as tournament conditions remain the same, expect to see a winning score in the high single digits in normal weather conditions. If it’s completely benign, I could see a player getting to 15-under par, and if it’s extremely windy like the Hatton year, this tournament could be won at three or four under par. Shoutout Chris Flynn, as I believe we need more people like him in positions of power that are willing to rock the boat and make PGA Tour pros occasionally feel more uncomfortable. There aren’t any courses outside of the U.S. Open venue that feature 3 inch rough and greens that run at 12 on the stimp, so I’m pretty pumped for this event. Digging into the actual golf course, the par threes at Bay Hill are absolutely brutal. They all measure over 200 yards, and rank as the third, fourth, ninth, and 11th hardest holes on the course. Nearly every single year, the Dick Wilson design features the hardest set of par threes on the schedule. There are five truly challenging par fours that all play over 450 yards, and rank as the 1st, 2nd, 6th, 5th, and 8th toughest holes on the course. Last year, Bay Hill featured the toughest set of par fours on the PGA Tour schedule, despite not featuring a single par four measuring over 480 yards. All five of the par fours north of 450 yards feature a bogey rate north of 20%. The iconic finishing hole ranks as the hardest hole on the course, playing to a historic scoring average of 4.3 and featuring a bogey rate of 22.1%. In fact, all five of the long par fours feature over a 20% bogey rate. The par fives are where it is truly essential to take advantage of Bay Hill, as they rank as the four easiest holes on the course. All are reachable in two by nearly all players in the field, and all feature a birdie rate north of 32.5%. The 16th hole is a bit of a joke, measuring only 511 yards on the scorecard, with a scoring average of 4.47 yards, a birdie rate of 51.7%, and an eagle rate of 5%. Last year, Bay Hill still featured the 11th hardest set of par fives on the PGA Tour. Compared to the par threes and fours, which both respectfully ranked as the hardest and second hardest sets on the schedule, the three-shotters are a walk in the park. Five of the last 10 years, we’ve seen one of the betting favorites win this event. Bryson won at 12/1, Rory won at 20/1, Jason Day won at 14/1, Tiger won at +300, and Scheffler won at 16/1. Even Francesco Molinari was in the low 30s, and considered one of the best players in the world at that time period. We did have this strange Matt Every thing here where he won back to back at 300/1 and 66/1, and Marc Leishman was a bit of a surprise at 100/1 as well. Yet scanning through the leaderboards, this is a hitters only golf course, which I expect to be accentuated further with an even stronger field this year. This type of course, like Torrey Pines, is where powerful drivers of the ball and elite long iron players such as Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Scottie Scheffler start on second base. With that being said, I do believe that Bay Hill is less of a brute force golf course than Torrey Pines is. Scanning through the leaderboards over the past couple of years, there are plenty of bombers and dominant drivers of the ball such as Bryson, Keith Mitchell, Jason Kokrak, and Rory McIlroy. A fair share of elite iron players, such as Corey Conners, Keegan Bradley, Paul Casey, Collin Morikawa, Tom Hoge, Talor Gooch, and Will Zalatoris, have also seen their fare share of success here. Finally, total grinders and players with an elite short game, such as Matt Fitzpatrick, Patrick Reed, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Jordan Spieth, have also found their name on the first page of the leaderboards. Essentially, there are a couple different ways to get it done at Bay Hill. In my opinion, it’s a week to look for a pretty balanced skill-set of players that possess power off the tee, are elite with their long irons, and boast an awesome short game. To win at Bay Hill, you must be absolutely elite at one of those things.  In 2020, Morikawa finished top-10 by gaining 10.6 strokes on approach, yet losing 5.9 around the green and putting. Hatton did it all with his irons while Bryson gained seven strokes off the tee and was just okay at everything else. Kokrak and Mitchell gained a ton off the tee. Jordan Spieth, who finished 4th in 2021, lost strokes off the tee but was awesome with his irons and around the green. Andrew Putnam finished fourth losing strokes off the tee, but gaining a ton short game and putting. Bezuidenhout lost 1.4 strokes ball-striking but gained 10.6 strokes around the green and putting. Last year, Scheffler actually lost strokes off the tee but ranked first in the field in approach play. To sum it up, we want to identify players that have a distinct weapon on this golf course. Are they an elite driver of the ball like Keith Mitchell or Bryson, who can gain a ton of strokes off the tee and dominate the par fives? Are they an elite long iron player such as Corey Conners or Keegan Bradley, who can separate themselves by hitting a ton of these rock hard putting surfaces? Or finally, are they an elite scrambler like Fitzpatrick or Bezuidenhout, where, if conditions get really tough and even the best ball-strikers are missing greens, they suddenly possess a huge advantage? In my opinion, you need to be really, really good at at least one of those things, and you should probably let the weather dictate which you favor the most. If it is super windy, give the tie-breaker to the player with a better short game. If it less windy, you probably want to go in the direction of favoring the ball-strikers. I think you can take any of those three routes and be okay, and I am going to try and find a middle ground and put a large emphasis on all three. If you aren’t really good at at least one of those things, you are a cross off for me. The stats have backed up this approach as well. Historically, it’s been extremely balanced in terms of the ways that players have found success at Bay Hill, yet the one constant is that every single year, the champion is elite at either proximity to the hole, driving distance, or scrambling. Let’s dive into the stats.

Bay Hill Stats

Off the Tee 

Last year 13.5% of strokes gained at Bay Hill came via off the tee, which is well below the Tour average of 15.2%. Historically, that number rises all the way up to 16.2%, so it appears that last year was a bit of an anomaly, as historically, off the tee has proven to be more important than TOUR average on this course. Last year, Bay Hill ranked 5th out of 38 courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty, and in each of the prior two years, it has ranked second on the entire PGA Tour in this category. One thing that stood out to me about Bay Hill is that it ranks 8th out of 38 courses in average driving distance on par fours and par fives, which would normally suggest that this is more of a club down course. Historic driving distance at Bay Hill is 277 yards compared to the Tour average of 283 yards. I still believe that players will be hitting their fare share of drivers on this course. The fairways are certainly hard to hit and because the rough is so long that the ball just completely stops the second it hits the rough, which is more so the culprit for the low driving distance. Bay Hill ranked 10th out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalty, and it generally ranks harder than Tour average in this category over a larger sample size. The biggest reason for this is that Bay Hill ranks 4th out of 38 courses in rough penalty. The rough at the Dick Wilson design is a problem, and it’s the closest thing to U.S. Open rough that players will see all year. Bay Hill also ranks 11th out of 38 courses in fraction of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke. Unlike Torrey Pines, which is a fairly obvious comparison off the tee, Bay Hill presents far more trouble. Last year it ranked 8th out of 38 courses in penalty strokes per round, and 8th out 38 courses in reloads per round. Each of the last eight years, it has ranked inside the top-eight in both of these categories. In terms of re-loads per round, Bay Hill has ranked as one the number course in this category in both 2020 and 2019, and the number two in 2021, 2018, and 2016. Translation: like most Florida courses, the water that comes into play off the tee must be avoided at all costs. There is a real penalty for wayward driving at Bay Hill, and I think where I land off the tee on this course is a fairly even distribution between distance and accuracy. Like Torrey Pines, Bay Hill is a course that completely puts the short and inaccurate player behind the eight ball. Especially after the Bryson year, there is far more of a penalty for wayward driving than most would expect, and I do not believe his strategy of bombing and gauging is sustainable at Bay Hill. The question that will surely be on people’s minds this week is, can you overpower this course off the tee? The answer to this question isn’t really black and white. I write a lot in my previews about how often players hit driver on a course, and if there is an actual advantage for being a really long and straight driver of the ball. With Bay Hill, distance of drives, on average, is well below TOUR average despite really firm and fast conditions. This course does play at sea level, so that plays a role. However, distance of drives here has been a lot lower than one would expect, which tells me, for whatever reason, guys are still laying back a little bit, and I do think that’s because with the shaved run off areas. It’s quite easy to hit the ball into the fairway bunkers and hazards here. Yet the reason why I do actually believe that distance off the tee matters this week is that Bryson was 1st in driving distance the year he won, Rory was 1st in driving distance the year he won, Jason Day was top 10 in driving distance the year he won, and both Tiger and Martin Laird were top 5 in driving distance. Looking at the average over the last 10 years, winners have rated out as 25th in driving distance and 33rd in driving accuracy. Therefore, I don’t really know if overpower is the right word, but I do believe that distance matters surely helps here, mainly because of the four par 5s that are reachable by most depending on the wind. Par five scoring is absolutely essential this week, and longer players that have the ability to overpower and take advantage of these par 5s possess a big advantage on what are really the four most important holes on the course. I think the way that I would go about measuring driving on this course is an even split between good drive percentage on long courses and overall strokes gained off the tee on long courses as well. I am incredibly concerned with which players can compete on long courses, and which players are dead on arrival at long courses. The best players in this field off the tee on long golf courses are Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Luke List, Keith Mitchell, Corey Conners, Cameron Young, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Kevin Streelman. and Viktor Hovland.  The players with the highest good drive percentage on long courses are Corey Conners, Collin Morikawa, Chez Reavie, Sungjae Im, Tom Hoge, Emiliano Grillo, Jon Rahm, Alex Smalley, Aaron Rai, and Scottie Scheffler 

Approach

Last year, 31.9% of strokes gained at Bay Hill came via approach, which is well below the TOUR average of 34.7%. Again, that was a bit of anomaly. Historically, that number jumps all the way up to 36.9%, so over a larger sample size, approach has proven to be more important than at other PGA Tour courses. Last year, Bay Hill ranked as the hardest course on the PGA Tour in stroke gained approach difficulty, and each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top-five in this category. Combine this with the fact that Bay Hill also ranks inside the top-five in strokes gained off the tee difficulty, and one could the Bay Hill is one of, if not the hardest, tee to green tests on the PGA Tour. I think if they simply converted the 16th hole from a short par five to a long par four, this course could host a U.S. Open tomorrow. When the greens firm up, it is nearly impossible to hold a long iron on these putting surfaces. The margin for error is incredibly slim. Last year, Bay Hill featured the lowest greens in regulation percentage on the entire PGA Tour, and each of the last five years, it has ranked inside the top five in lowest greens in regulation percentage. To provide more context to the firmness of the greens, Bay Hill ranked as the number one in strokes gained approach difficulty from over 150 yards. Similar to what we saw with Viktor Hovland on the 18th hole last year, it’s nearly impossible to stop a long iron approach shot on these greens over the weekend, no matter how high a player hits the ball. My recommendation would be to aim at the fat part of the green every time you have a mid to long iron in your hands. Last year, the proximity buckets that ranked above TOUR average were 150-175 yards, 175-200 yards, and 200 yard plus. Players will not have a wedge in their hands too often, unless they have chosen to lay up out of the rough. Last year, 21.7% of approach shots came from 150-175 yards, which is a touch above the TOUR average of 20.3%. Last year, 18.5% of approach shots came from 175-200 yards, which is a touch above the TOUR average of 17.5%. Yet when it really comes down it, Bay Hill is a long iron course through and through. Last year, 30.6% of approach shots came from over 200 yards, which is well above the TOUR average of 22.9%. This is a massive disparity and can easily be explained by the fact that every single par three on the golf course is 199 yards or longer, five of the par fours measure over 450 yards, and finally, all four of the par fives measure between 511 and 590 yards, reachable in two by nearly all players in the field this week. Adding all of this together, 13 of 18 approach shots on this course could potentially com from over 200 yards. The best long iron players in this field are Gary Woodland, Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Shane Lowry, Aaron Wise, Viktor Hovland, Wyndham Clark, and Kurt Kitayama. 

Around the Green 

Last year, 20.7% of strokes gained at Bay Hill came via around the around the green, which is well above the Tour average of 14.5%. 18 of the top 20 players on the leaderboard gained strokes around the green. Last year was certainly a bit of anomaly, as historically, 14.7% of strokes gained at Bay Hill have come around the green, which is still above Tour average. Part of the reason of short game coming into play more often the last three years than years in the past is due to Chris Flynn and how hard it has become to hit greens on this course. Last year, Bay Hill featured the hardest greens to hit on the PGA Tour, so short game remains incredibly important on this course simply due to sheer volume. Overall, this will be amongst the highest that I am on around the green at any course all season. Last year, Bay Hill ranked sixth out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty, which again, is a bit of an anomaly, as it usually ranks closer to middle of the pack in around the green difficulty. While efforts have been made to increase the collection areas surrounding the green, there is simply a ton of thick rough around the greens here. Last year, Bay Hill ranked 11th out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the fairways, 2nd out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the rough, and 13th out of 38 courses in around the green difficulty from the bunkers. The way that I am attacking short game this week is through sand save percentage and around the green play on Bermuda courses. With 84 bunkers, Bay Hill is one of the most heavily bunkered courses on the PGA Tour, and we’ve seen bunker ability play a massive role down the stretch. The best long-term bunker players in this field are S.H. Kim, Andrew Putnam, Robby Shelton, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Shane Lowry, David Lingmerth, Charley Hoffman, Byeong Hun An, and Lucas Herbert.  I do believe that chipping off tight Bermuda lies and out of thick Bermuda rough are two distinct skills, so I wanted to go out of my way to identify the players that have a proven track record of success around the green on Bermuda courses. The players in this field with the best short game on Bermuda courses are Justin Thomas, Chris Kirk, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Si Woo Kim, Seamus Power, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Mackenzie Hughes, Danny Willett, and Scott Piercy. 

Putting 

Last year, 33.9% of strokes gained at Bay Hill came via the flat-stick, which is well below the Tour average of 35.6%. Historically, that number falls even further to 32.2%, so this is a ball-striker’s course through and through. Last year, Bay Hill ranked second out of 38 courses in putting difficulty, which is a bit on anomaly, as each of the last eight years, it has ranked outside of the top-10 in scoring putting difficulty. Last year, Bay Hill ranked 9th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty inside five feet, 2nd out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from 5 to 15 feet, and 4th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from greater than 15 feet. I’m still going to roll with the long-term data when it comes to putting at Bay Hill. No one made any putts last year, but historically this has not been an overly challenging course to put on. Like most Florida golf courses, these greens are relatively flat and the true challenge they present is the grain. Again, Bay Hill is a ball-striker’s course through and through, but I still believe it is imperative to identify players with a proven track record on Bermuda. These greens are not over-seeded, so players will need to be able to read and understand grain. The best long-term Bermuda-grass putters in this field are Tyrrell Hatton, Sam Burns, Lucas Herbert, Tommy Fleetwood, Beau Hossler, Brendon Todd, Taylor Montgomery, Andrew Putnam, Kevin Kisner, and Sepp Straka. 

Scoring Stats 

I often look at par five scoring on most par 72s, and Bay Hill is no different. With how difficult the par threes and par fours are on this course, it is absolutely essential to take advantage of the rare scoring opportunities on the par fives. Top-10 finishers have gained more strokes to the field relative to their peers as they have on the par fours and par threes. The best par fives scorers over the past year have been Rory McIlroy, Sungjae Im, Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Kyle Westmoreland, Cameron Davis, Taylor Pendrith, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Justin Thomas.  In terms of measuring the difficulty of this course and attempting to identify players that thrive in major championship conditions, there are a lot of statistical routes that you could go down. Bogey avoidance and scrambling would just be a few examples, but I decided to go with average strokes gained per round in difficult conditions. Since Chris Flynn was brought on as the new superintendent, and they’re really firming up the course and growing out the rough, Bay Hill has proven to be as difficult as it gets for a par 72 on the PGA Tour. The best players in this field over the last three years difficult coring conditions have been Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Will Zalatoris, Matt Fitzpatrick, Hideki Matsuyama, Aaron Wise, Sungjae Im, and Xander Schauffele. 

Course History/Comp Course History 

The number one thing that I always like to look at regarding course history is if debutants have been able to instantly find success without any previous experience. It’s certainly possible for first timers to come out of the gates firing. Sungjae Im finished 3rd on his debut, Tommy Fleetwood finished top 10 in his debut, Tyrrell Hatton finished 4th on his debut, Keith Mitchell finished 6th on his debut, Matt Wallace finished 6th on his debut, and even Troy Merritt finished 3rd on his debut. I do not believe there are a ton of tricks to Bay Hill, it’s simply just really hard. Yet, we do see that there are a certain group of guys that pretty much always perform here: Rory, Bryson, Sergio Garcia, Sungjae, Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout have all been really consistently awesome at the iconic Dick Wilson design. In terms of pure course history correlation, the only regular courses on Tour which possess a higher correlation than Bay Hill are Waialae, TPC Scottsdale, Augusta, and Harbour Town, so I still have a fairly hefty weight on course history here. The best players at Bay Hill in this field have been Rory McIlroy, Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sungjae Im, Francesco Molinari, Scottie Scheffler, Jason Day, Emiliano Grillo, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Chris Kirk.  The first comp course that comes to mind is Doral, former host of the now extinct WGC Cadillac Championship, another Bermuda-grass, harder, long iron and water intensive Florida golf course. The best players in this field at Doral have beenThe best players in this field at Doral have been Adam Scott, Rory McIlroy, Danny Willett, Francesco Molinari, Aaron Baddeley, Padraig Harrington, Harris English, Justin Rose, Keegan Bradley, and Martin Laird. Another long iron intensive, Bermuda-grass course with harder scoring conditions is Quail Hollow, host of the Wells Fargo Championship, the 2017 PGA Championship, and 2022 Presidents Cup. The best players in this field at Quail Hollow have been Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Aaron Wise, Justin Thomas, Gary Woodland, Joel Dahmen, Hideki Matsuyama, Francesco Molinari, and Viktor Hovland. A few secondary comp courses aren’t going to make it into my model but deserve a mention. Muirfield Village, host of the Memorial Tournament, due to its length, penalty for wayward driving, thicker rough, and firmer greens. Last week’s PGA National certainly checks some boxes as well. Both courses are firm and fast Bermuda tracks that are exposed to the wind with a lot of bunkers where short game and scrambling matter. However, the rough at PGA National is far less penal and Par 5 scoring and long iron play aren’t nearly as important as they are at Bay Hill. Finally, Olympia Fields, host of the 2021 and upcoming 2023 BMW Championship, is another difficult golf course with extremely thick rough that places an emphasis on long iron play and scrambling. Those who have appeared at the top of the leaderboard at Olympia Fields (Hideki, Kokrak, Fitzpatrick, Adam Scott, Rory, Hatton, Paul Casey) are also really good at Bay Hill— so I really like that Olympia Fields/Bay Hill connection given the thick rough, the wind, and the rock hard greens at both courses.

Model

Off the Tee (15%)

Strokes Gained Off the Tee: Long courses (8%) Good Drive Percentage: Long courses (7%)

Approach (30%)

Strokes Gained Approach (18%) Long-term Proximity 200 Yards Plus (12%)

Around the Green (15%)

Strokes Gained Around the Green: Bermuda courses (10%) Sand Save Percentage (5%)

Putting (10%)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermuda-grass

Scoring Stats (15%)

Par 5 Scoring (7%) Strokes Gained Total: Difficult Scoring Conditions (8%)

Comp Courses/Course History (15%)

Bay Hill (9%) Doral (3%) Quail Hollow (3%)

Model Top 20

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Xander Schauffele
3. Jon Rahm
4. Sungjae Im
5. Will Zalatoris
6. Scottie Scheffler
7. Patrick Cantlay
8. Max Homa
9. Tony Finau
10. Tommy Fleetwood
11. Collin Morikawa
12. Ben Griffin
13. Tom Kim
14. Jason Day
15. Justin Thomas
16. Tom Hoge
17. Tyrrell Hatton
18. Alex Smalley
19. Shane Lowry
20. Aaron Wise

Best of luck this week – AL