2023 Colonial Course Breakdown: Colonial
The Basics
- Course: Colonial Country Club
- Location: Fort Worth, Texas
- Designer: Perry Maxwell and John Bredemus (1936)
- Length: Par 70; 7,209 yards
- Hazards: Water comes into play on six holes
- Fairways: Bermuda-grass, measuring 27 yards wide
- Rough: Bermuda-grass, three inches
- Greens: A4 Bent; 5,000 square feet on average running 12 on the stimp
Colonial is an old-school, tree-lined, classical golf course with narrow fairways and small Bent-grass greens. It’s in desperate need for a restoration, but that’s a story for a different day. For what Colonial currently is, I must admit that it’s rather impressive how much it can still stand up to the world’s best golfers. The Perry Maxwell design is currently the fourth-shortest course on Tour, and yet last year it played as the ninth-most difficult course on Tour. In fairness, last year did play particularly hard as the tournament was played during a an extremely dry period. Playing conditions, especially on Sunday, were as firm and fast as possible, and Colonial gave professionals just about everything they could handle. Even in less dry conditions, Colonial still always ranks as one of the more challenging courses on Tour.
The course features an interesting start. The first and second holes are the two easiest on the golf course, but then players will be tasked with the “Horrible Horseshoe.” The third, fourth, and fifth holes rank as the fourth, third, and first most difficult holes on the course. Colonial is characterized by a very challenging set of par threes, which all play over par and are all longer than 190 yards. The third hole measures almost 250 yards and ranks as the third-hardest hole on the course. Last year, they played as the seventh-toughest set of par threes on the PGA Tour. On the other hand, par-five scoring will not come much into play here. The first hole is an extremely easy par five, but the 11th, the only other par five on the course, is a three-shot hole. Many of the par fours at Colonial are gettable, and nine of them measure below 450 yards on the scorecard. Still, Colonial provides a legitimate tee-to-green test, and this tournament is rarely won by a long-shot or an imposter. Each of the last 10 years, the winner has been below 100/1. Boo Weekley in 2013 was the last triple digits winner we have seen here. Favorites have fared quite well in this tournament too. Four of the last 10 years, the winner has come at 20/1 or below. Both Jordan Spieth (in 2021) and Scottie Scheffler (in 2022) nearly added to that list of sub-20/1 winners.
Kevin Na discussed, “This is a golf course where you play your game. You see that white stone in the middle of the fairway? That’s where I’m trying to be every hole.” Na also spoke about how Colonial favors a draw. “It’s a great designed golf course. You got to hit a lot of draws off the tee. Some of the way the hole sits, I like it. Few cut holes. I can cut it when I need to. Mostly I think a lot of my draws work out here.” Chris Kirk echoed a similar sentiment. “It’s been a course that’s suited guys who hit the ball right to left over the years. Zach Johnson, Kenny Perry, Stricker, some other guys like that, and I definitely fit into that category.” Similar to what we saw at Southern Hills last year, another Perry Maxwell course, expect drawers of the ball to have an advantage this week. Let’s dive into what else matters.
Stats
- Off the Tee
- Last year, 9.5% of strokes gained at Colonial came off the tee, which is well below the Tour average of 15.2%. That numbers ticks up historically to 9.5%, but that is still below Tour average.
- Last year, Colonial ranked seventh out of 38 courses in strokes gained off the tee difficulty, and it historically always ranks in the top seven toughest driving courses on the PGA Tour.
- Jordan Spieth has spoken before about how Colonial is not necessarily a bomber’s course. It doesn’t favor any type of player.
- Colonial featured the ninth-lowest driving distance last year on the PGA Tour, as well as the ninth-toughest fairways to hit on Tour. This can easily be explained by the fact that the course features the fifth-most narrow fairways to hit on Tour.
- Colonial ranked 19th out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalty, 10th out of 38 courses in rough, and 31st out of 38 courses in non-rough penalty.
- This is not a golf course where distance has historically mattered. The rough is thick enough here where many players opt not to take a driver-heavy approach. Kevin Kisner stated, “Most important thing about playing well around here is getting the ball in the fairway, because you can’t get to the small greens out of the rough. You get so blocked out with the trees if you’re in the rough that you hit so many run-up shots you’re just not going to hit greens with.”
- Justin Rose echoed a similar sentiment. “I think the rough is tough enough around here if you catch a bad lie it’s hard to get it to the green. If you have a decent lie, huge fliers in play around here.”
- In 2021, Jason Kokrak did lead the field in strokes gained off the tee by over a stroke and a half. By no means did he “bomb and gauge” this course but his combination of length and accuracy was deadly. Colonial is the type of course where players will still miss fairways clubbing down off the tee. Kokrak took an aggressive route, attempting to cut the corner on many of the doglegs, and it absolutely paid off. Last year, Sam Burns ranked third in driving distance, taking an extremely aggressive route as well. Scottie Scheffler, who finished runner-up, ranked first in driving distance, first in good drive percentage, and fourth in strokes gained off the tee.
- Justin Rose described the risk/reward challenge at Colonial. “Every hole tempts you to hit driver in a way, you know. Every hole is just wide enough if you miss, you’re going to have some type of challenge. The fairway bunkers are so good here you can almost challenge them and feel like if you’re in them it’s not such a penalty because they play firm. You don’t get many balls that sit down in these bunkers. I think that’s why guys do tend to be aggressive. It’s the type of rough here where you can catch a lot of fliers and the greens are small and tricky. So catching fliers into these greens, you’ll make a lot of bogeys.
- Ultimately, what’s truly most important is putting yourself in a position where you can easily hit the green in regulation, whether that is farther back in the fairway, or up close is irrelevant. Colonial remains more of a second-shot golf course. Jason Kokrak led the field in good drive percentage in 2021, which measures drives that hit the fairway or still result in a green in regulation. 19 of the top 20 on last year’s leaderboard gained in relation to the field in good drive percentage. The best players in this field in good drive percentage are Collin Morikawa, Russell Henley, Hayden Buckley, Ryan Armour, Scottie Scheffler, Matthew NeSmith, Aaron Rai, Nate Lashley, Tyler Duncan, and Chez Reavie.
- Overall, an aggressive strategy has proven to be valuable here looking at the last two years, which has certainly made me re-think how I model Colonial off the tee. I want to identify the players that perform the best OTT on shorter courses. Their roadmap may be via a more conservative, find the fairway approach, or it might be via a more aggressive, cut the corner approach. Kokrak, Scheffler, and Burns all have taken the aggressive approach over the last two years, but they won not necessarily because they were “aggressive.” They won because they took on a risk and executed. Burns, Scheffler, and Kokrak all hit a lot of drivers at Colonial, but that only worked because they drove the ball straight. The best players off the tee on shorter courses over the last three years have been Sungjae Im, Keith Mitchell, Cameron Davis, Scottie Scheffler, Hayden Buckley, Luke List, Chris Kirk, Tyler Duncan, and Emiliano Grillo.
- Approach
- Last year at Colonial, 38.9% of strokes gained came on approach, which is well above the Tour average of 34.7%. That number historically falls at 38.8%, so this is one of the most heavily weighted approach courses on the entire PGA Tour.
- Last year, Colonial ranked 10th out of 38 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty, and it often ranks in the top half historically of toughest approach courses on Tour.
- Colonial did feature the sixth-toughest greens to hit on the PGA Tour last year, and it ranked ninth in approach difficulty inside 150 yards, and 15th in approach difficulty from greater than 150 yards
- Last year, every proximity bucket between 100 and 200 yards ranked above Tour average. Colonial is definitively a mid to short iron course.
- 13% of approach shots came from 100 to 125 yards, which is above the Tour average of 11.8%.
- 19.7% of approach shots came from 125-150 yards, which is above the Tour average of 17%.
- 22.6% of approach shots came from 150-175 yards, which is above the Tour average of 20%.
- 17.7% of approach shots came from 175-200 yards, which is a touch above the Tour average of 17.5%.
- There was a VERY low percentage of approach shots that came from 200 yards-plus.
- Overall, the best long-term middle- to short-iron players in this field are Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Rose, Viktor Hovland, Mark Hubbard, Scott Piercy, Erik Van Rooyen, J.T. Poston, and Zac Blair.
- Around the Green
- Last year, 18.8% of strokes gained at Colonial came around the green, which should certainly be seen as an anomaly, as the event average is 12.6%, well below the Tour average of 14.5%. Last year did play particularly windy, firm, and fast, and featured one of the lowest greens in regulation percentage in tournament history, so it does make sense short game would be more essential last year. I would certainly check back as the week progresses, but I would not expect us to get as fiery conditions this year.
- Last year, Colonial ranked 26th out of 38 courses in around-the-green difficulty, and it historically ranks as one of the easier around-the-green courses on the PGA Tour.
- It ranked 17th in around-the-green difficulty from the fairway, 19th in around-the-green difficulty from the rough, and 37th in around-the-green difficulty from the bunkers. Colonial does have some of the most benign bunkers on Tour, which I would expect Gil Hanse to rectify.
- I do not believe that the degree of difficulty of the around-the-green shots at Colonial are very challenging. It’s a fairly flat golf course. Yet still, due to a low greens-in-regulation percentage, players will still need to have some semblance of a short game here. Ultimately, I’m about at normal weight on around-the-green play this week.
- I mentioned how around-the-green play was more paramount last year due to the firm and fast conditions, but two years ago, Jason Kokrak won this tournament in 2021 losing two strokes around the green. In fact, 17 of the top 30 players on last year’s leaderboard lost strokes around the green. Contrast that with the fact that only five of the top 30 lost strokes on approach! The prior year, Kevin Na won the tournament while losing strokes on the greens, and Tony Finau finished second while also losing strokes around the green.
- Putting
- Last year, 32.8% of strokes gained came with the flat-stick, which is below the Tour average of 35.5%. Historically, that number ticks back up to 36.5%, right around Tour average.
- Last year, Colonial ranked eighth out of 38 courses in strokes gained putting difficulty, which was a bit of an anomaly, as it usually ranks as one of the easier putting courses on the PGA Tour.
- Colonial ranked 13th out of 38 courses last year in putting difficulty inside five feet, 11th out of 38 courses in putting difficulty from five to 15 feet, and seventh out of 38 courses in putting from greater than 15 feet. Last year was an uncharacteristically tough putting year, as Colonial typically ranks on the easier side in terms of putting difficulty.
- Colonial is definitely too challenging of a course from tee to green to be categorized as a putting of contest, and the degree of difficulty of putting is not overly strong. A familiarity on Bent-grass is certainly what I care most about this week. The best Bent-grass putters in this field are Brendon Todd, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Beau Hossler, Justin Lower, Maverick McNealy, Alex Noren, Justin Rose, Sam Burns, Harris English, and Andrew Putnam.
- Scoring Stats
- Due to the amount of short to middle irons at Colonial, I wanted to identify the players who generate the most birdie looks per round. There are some really challenging holes at Colonial, but there are also a fair amount of attackable ones as well. Opportunities Gained measures the amount of birdie looks a player gives himself inside 15 feet. The leaders in this field in this category are Tom Hoge, Cameron Davis, Tony Finau, Scottie Scheffler, Si Woo Kim, Sungjae Im, Kurt Kitayama, Davis Riley, Ben Martin, and Charley Hoffman.
- Yet due to the fact that Colonial typically ranks in the top 15 toughest in birdie average, I am not looking for prolific birdie makers. I would rather identify plodders who play within themselves and don’t make too many mistakes.
- I have some of these tracks covered in the comp course section, but I really wanted to look closely at shorter, positional, par 70 courses. These are typically club-down courses that de-emphasize par-five scoring and increase the emphasis on short- to middle-iron play into small greens. The best players in this field on these types of courses over the last three years have been Kevin Kisner, Russell Henley, Chris Kirk, Ben Taylor, Adam Svensson, Andrew Putnam, Ben Griffin, Si Woo Kim, Brian Harman, and Nick Taylor.
- Comp Courses/Course History
- Colonial does have the ninth-stickiest course history on the PGA Tour. It is certainly a nuanced course where experience is valuable. We tend to see the same players pop up here year after year. The best players in this field at Colonial have been Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau, Harris English, Brian Harman, Collin Morikawa, Chris Stroud, Kevin Kisner, Justin Rose, Davis Riley, and Emiliano Grillo.
- Harbour Town is another club-down course that places an emphasis on positioning off the tee and middle- to short-iron play. It should not come as a surprise that there have been a ton of crossover among these leaderboards. The best players in this field at Harbour Town have been J.T. Poston, Cameron Davis, Brian Harman, Jordan Spieth, Tommy Fleetwood, Emiliano Grillo, Russell Henley, Alex Noren, Hayden Buckley, and Sam Burns.
- Waialae also falls into the category of a club-down course where positioning off the tee is crucial, there is an emphasis on short- to middle-iron play, and the amount of wind usually determines how difficult that the course plays. The best players in this field at Waialae have been Justin Rose, Kevin Kisner, Hayden Buckley, Si Woo Kim, Collin Morikawa, Keith Mitchell, Russell Henley, Chris Kirk, Zac Blair, and Chez Reavie.
- TPC Sawgrass, Sedgefield, Sea Island, and even Innisbrook to a certain extent also fit this general mold. The biggest difference is that nearly all these club-down, positional golf courses feature Bermuda-grass greens, and Colonial features pure Bent-grass on the putting surfaces, but Bermuda fairways and rough.
Model
- Off the Tee (14%)
- Good Drive Percentage (6%)
- Strokes Gained Off the Tee: Short Courses (8%)
- Approach (35%)
- Strokes Gained Approach (15%)
- Proximity 125-150 yards (6%)
- Proximity 150-175 yards (8%)
- Proximity 175-200 yards (6%)
- Around the Green (8%)
- Strokes Gained Around the Green (8%)
- Putting (13%)
- Strokes Gained Putting: Bent-grass (13%)
- Scoring Stats (16%)
- Opportunities Gained (6%)
- Strokes Gained Total: Short Par 70s (10%)
- Comp Courses/Course History (14%)
- Colonial (8%)
- Waialae (3%)
- Harbour Town (3%)
Top 20
- Tony Finau
- Scottie Scheffler
- Justin Rose
- Max Homa
- Collin Morikawa
- Sungjae Im
- Viktor Hovland
- Si Woo Kim
- Chris Kirk
- Jordan Spieth
- Adam Svensson
- Russell Henley
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Rickie Fowler
- Tom Hoge
- Charley Hoffman
- Emiliano Grillo
- Cameron Davis
- C.T. Pan
- Brendon Todd
